Scottish Politics

GloryHunter07 said:
I think Sturgeon has jumped the gun a little bit here. I know it takes time to set up a referendum but i think it is a bit too early.
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No, she had to announce the intent before Article 50 was submitted - Government could have just batted it away with "we can't let this happen whilst we are in the middle of dealing with the fall out from Article 50. Come back later." Sturgeon has got in first, which puts her in a stronger position.
 
Cheesy said:
I'm still wary of another vote so soon. For all the outrage over Brexit and for all the discontent with our current position, the polls tend to be varying from a narrow No vote to about events at the moment, and calling a vote when it could all easily go to shite is a risky move since a second failure would essentially kill off the argument for now.

Still...the UK will have major problems of their own. Risking losing Scotland during Brexit negotiations would be massive...how would May be able to portray the UK as strong and ready to thrive on their own when a literal chunk of the country is breaking off? And who's going to make the argument for No this time? For all their increase in votes, the Scottish Tories still remain quite unpopular...the fact they were celebrating getting figures less than what it's expected Corbyn would get UK-wide speaks volume. Their current popularity relies almost completely on Davidson, who will struggle to argue for a UK out of the EU considering it's not what she believed in.

And Scottish Labour have lost most of their credibility...so any attempt from them to be the face of the union kind of involves admitting most of the stuff they said in 2014 was either false or just hasn't come true. Back then they at least had some reasonably prominent and respected figures to fall back on...Darling held his own against Salmond in one of their debates, but they don't have anyone who'd probably manage to do that with Sturgeon now.

Overall though I'm still not sure it'll happen. May might not let it, but she may take this as a strong warning that she needs to give us concessions regarding Brexit, or risk losing the UK as it's known. And, of course, that happening would probably result in her being perceived as by far the worst British PM of all-time.
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If it actually goes ahead, I do think it's a leave vote this time. Circumstances look far more propitious to the independence cause this time round, Labour will try and bring out a few of the old big beasts but I can't see them having the necessary impact, and the prospect of Tories in power (and not decent ones like Davidson at that) down in Westminster for a decade or more is a fair way different to how things looked in 2014.

I really don't want Scotland to leave, but the realignment in the party system after independence would be absolutely fascinating to watch.
 
Cheesy said:
I'm not sure this is the case at all.
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I'm not sure how they could lose realistically. A big part of the argument last time was that staying in the UK guaranteed them a place in the EU. That turns out to have been a complete lie. The Tories have gone from being a small majority government to being anything upto 18 points clear in the polls. Brexit is a mess and the smart money is on the UK taking a big economic hit from it.

If it could be so close last time when it came down to little more than 'Do you like the idea of being independent or not?', I don't see how the rUK makes a strong enough case to prevent a loss this time. What arguments can they use? The only one that really has any weight is 'You'll be economically screwed' and the natural response to that will just be 'We will either way'.
 
Lied to by the tories, voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU and it's clearly the only decision. If Westminster blocks it, then I can only see a bigger swell of support.
 
Untied said:
No, she had to announce the intent before Article 50 was submitted - Government could have just batted it away with "we can't let this happen whilst we are in the middle of dealing with the fall out from Article 50. Come back later." Sturgeon has got in first, which puts her in a stronger position.
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But do people in Scotland actually want to vote on something before we have a "deal" with the EU?
 
Legacy of David Cameron is going to really be something if this happens.
 
If Scotland do end up leaving the UK, do we get to hammer them with a huge leaving bill, like we will pay the EU?
 
Ubik said:
Legacy of David Cameron is going to really be something if this happens.
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Cameron and May would surely have to go down as two of the worst PMs in our history if that does happen?

Take us out of Europe and break up the union. We'd be a much smaller country, both literally and figuratively. I wonder how that would sit with the Make Great Britain Great again brigade?
 
No surprise.

Sturgeon just proved her EU credentials by insisting on having as many referendums as she needs until she gets the result she wants.
 
Can't blame her really, was always going to happen when an actual majority* in Scotland voted not to leave the EU.

*62% in Scotland rather than the ridiculous 51.9% that somehow managed to win outright in such a huge decision.
 
I keep seeing these stats trotted out to support the leave argument.

The first minister said the UK government had not "moved even an inch in pursuit of compromise and agreement" since the Brexit referendum, which saw Scotland vote by 62% to 38% in favour of Remain while the UK as a whole voted to leave by 52% to 48%.
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60% of Londoners voted to remain. Shit happens, if you're in the UK in a UK wide referendum, the overall result should be all that matters.
 
Full bodied red said:
No surprise.

Sturgeon just proved her EU credentials by insisting on having as many referendums as she needs until she gets the result she wants.
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There has been a significant constitutional change since then, a constitutional change overwhelmingly rejected by Scotland, that is surely a factor in the situation. Clearly Sturgeon is pro-independence, but she is clever enough to understand that she is now open to the kind of point you have just made, but surely there are other, more legitimate, reasons to re-open this discussion in light of Brexit?

Personally, I'm just sick of referendum politics, which lead to simplified and aggressive debate rather than intelligent discussion.
 
Bill.s.preston said:
I keep seeing these stats trotted out to support the leave argument.

60% of Londoners voted to remain. Shit happens, if you're in the UK in a UK wide referendum, the overall result should be all that matters.
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There's a pretty clear difference between a capital city in the south of England and a country with its own clear identity and a longstanding friction with government from England.
 
africanspur said:
Cameron and May would surely have to go down as two of the worst PMs in our history if that does happen?

Take us out of Europe and break up the union. We'd be a much smaller country, both literally and figuratively. I wonder how that would sit with the Make Great Britain Great again brigade?
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It would largely be symbolic. Scotland's population is 5.3m, its economy runs at a significant economic deficit and most of their financial services sector would relocate to England.

In terms of land mass it would be a major loss, however.
 
Bill.s.preston said:
I keep seeing these stats trotted out to support the leave argument.



60% of Londoners voted to remain. Shit happens, if you're in the UK in a UK wide referendum, the overall result should be all that matters.
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There are historical reasons that come into play with Scotland, that do not with London. Maybe London will want out....the divisions in UK society post Brexit are deep and all the fault lines are being opened.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
London doesn't have it's own government and isn't it's own country.
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That's not what the Scottish leave campaigners were saying in the "once in a generation" referendum.

I know what you're saying, but just for context's sake it's not like Scotland was an anomaly in an otherwise UK-wide pro brexit vote.
 
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Bill.s.preston said:
I keep seeing these stats trotted out to support the leave argument.

60% of Londoners voted to remain. Shit happens, if you're in the UK in a UK wide referendum, the overall result should be all that matters.
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If London wishes to form its own devolved parliament, does so, and elects a devolved government whose manifesto pledges to support independence for London, then they'd be entitled to pursue independence if they wished. As it currently stands they haven't done so...whereas Scotland has.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It would largely be symbolic. Scotland's population is 5.3, its economy runs at a significant economic deficit and most of their financial services sector would relocate to England.
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If Scotland were in the EU, would they? I'm not sure sure this doesn't strengthen Scotland's case, at least hypothetically enough for debate currently, if not in reality.
 
Why would Scotland want to leave the UK? I totally understand strong support for devolution, but what would be the advantage of leaving the UK compared to a strong regional parliament?
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It would largely be symbolic. Scotland's population is 5.3m, its economy runs at a significant economic deficit and most of their financial services sector would relocate to England.

In terms of land mass it would be a major loss, however.
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Losing almost 10% of our population would be rather more than just a symbolic move. Not to mention the prestige loss etc.
 
PedroMendez said:
Why would Scotland want to leave the UK? I totally understand strong support for devolution, but what would be the advantage of leaving the UK compared to a strong regional parliament?
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On a pretty basic level...the ability to choose our own government. Devolution's good but it still ultimately leaves the UK government with a lot of control.
 
Fingeredmouse said:
If Scotland were in the EU, would they? I'm not sure sure this doesn't strengthen Scotland's case, at least hypothetically enough for debate currently, if not in reality.
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Most of their business is with England, as is consistent with the rest of the Scottish economy. Talk of 'indyref2' has already harmed the Scottish financial sector with the first businesses already relocating to England.
 
PedroMendez said:
Why would Scotland want to leave the UK? I totally understand strong support for devolution, but what would be the advantage of leaving the UK compared to a strong regional parliament?
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Primarily huge and long standing political mis-alignment to Westminster: Scotland tends to sit quite heavily socially left (welfare state, nationalisation, etc) and is, of course, pro EU.
 
Full bodied red said:
No surprise.

Sturgeon just proved her EU credentials by insisting on having as many referendums as she needs until she gets the result she wants.
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Or the fact that in her manifesto that she stated that if there was a significant change to the situation in 2014, detailing Scotland being taken out of the EU, then Scotland have the right to call another referendum. She has far more of a mandate than May taken the UK out of the single market for a start.
 
im not really agaisnt the idea off a second Scottish referendum it would be incredibly detrimental to everyone involves short term interests but they voted to stay in the EU and so may want to go in that direction and so should have the right to choose for themselves if thats what they want.

Im just against Sturgeon calling for the referendum, she never excepted the results of the last one, and has been looking for any excuse to hold another one, she has been beyond hypocritical basically arguing to stay in the EU but basically basically contradicting a lot off her own arguments own it comes to Scottish independence

You just get the feeling Sturgeon is using the situation to peruse her own political agenda which is Scottish independence at any cost. So if scotland wants independance that should of course be respected, but feck off sturgeon go and live in a hole.
 
Nytram Shakes said:
im not really agaisnt the idea off a second Scottish referendum it would be incredibly detrimental to everyone involves short term interests but they voted to stay in the EU and so may want to go in that direction and so should have the right to choose for themselves if thats what they want.

Im just against Sturgeon calling for the referendum, she never excepted the results of the last one, and has been looking for any excuse to hold another one, she has been beyond hypocritical basically arguing to stay in the EU but basically basically contradicting a lot off her own arguments own it comes to Scottish independence

You just get the feeling Sturgeon is using the situation to peruse her own political agenda which is Scottish independence at any cost. So if scotland wants independance that should of course be respected, but feck off sturgeon go and live in a hole.
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Yes she did? The Yes camp accepted they lost the vote, but said they would continue to believe in an independent Scotland and, if the will of Scotland was there, would campaign for another one. This included if there was a material change to our situation in the UK...which has happened with Brexit.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Most of their business is with England, as is consistent with the rest of the Scottish economy. Talk of 'indyref2' has already harmed the Scottish financial sector with the first businesses already relocating to England.
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I'm not aware of any that have actually done so, but you may be right. However, staying in the EU, and Scotland would get back in pretty quickly as they fulfill the criteria and would be filled with former EU citizens, is surely an attractive option to financial companies such as those discussing relocation to EIRE right now? Also, the geographical advantage for English businesses, not in the EU, being able to trade across a non marine customs line is surely significant? Brexit seems to me to be an advantage to an independent Scotland.
 
Nytram Shakes said:
im not really agaisnt the idea off a second Scottish referendum it would be incredibly detrimental to everyone involves short term interests but they voted to stay in the EU and so may want to go in that direction and so should have the right to choose for themselves if thats what they want.

Im just against Sturgeon calling for the referendum, she never excepted the results of the last one, and has been looking for any excuse to hold another one, she has been beyond hypocritical basically arguing to stay in the EU but basically basically contradicting a lot off her own arguments own it comes to Scottish independence

You just get the feeling Sturgeon is using the situation to peruse her own political agenda which is Scottish independence at any cost. So if scotland wants independance that should of course be respected, but feck off sturgeon go and live in a hole.
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That's nonsense. It was detailed in the 2014 manifesto what the SNP thought would be required to call for another referendum. They were voted in, and the change has happened. May has done nothing to accommodate Scotland's views so I really don't know how you can have a pop at Sturgeon for doing this.
 
Nytram Shakes said:
im not really agaisnt the idea off a second Scottish referendum it would be incredibly detrimental to everyone involves short term interests but they voted to stay in the EU and so may want to go in that direction and so should have the right to choose for themselves if thats what they want.

Im just against Sturgeon calling for the referendum, she never excepted the results of the last one, and has been looking for any excuse to hold another one, she has been beyond hypocritical basically arguing to stay in the EU but basically basically contradicting a lot off her own arguments own it comes to Scottish independence

You just get the feeling Sturgeon is using the situation to peruse her own political agenda which is Scottish independence at any cost. So if scotland wants independance that should of course be respected, but feck off sturgeon go and live in a hole.
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I don't feel this is true...her hand is forced and, on the contrary, I don't think she'd call this right now if she could avoid it.
 
Davidson saying the SNP have "no mandate" because they lost their majority in Holyrood...ignoring the Scottish Greens, who have already given approval to a second referendum. Sneaky...
 
Scotland leaving the UK would solve a lot of current problems.

They could then apply to join the EU, and if they're accepted ( not guaranteed given the Spain v Catalunya issues ) then all those people in England and Wales who want to stay in the EU could go and live in Scotland.
 
Cheesy said:
Yes she did? The Yes camp accepted they lost the vote, but said they would continue to believe in an independent Scotland and, if the will of Scotland was there, would campaign for another one. This included if there was a material change to our situation in the UK...which has happened with Brexit.
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come of it she has basically been hinting that she wants to hold another refferndum since the next day
 
Nytram Shakes said:
come of it she has basically been hinting that she wants to hold another refferndum since the next day
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She said she would want to hold another referendum should a material change occur in Scotland's circumstances within the UK. That's happened. What part of that is difficult to understand?
 
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