Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

devilish said:
Russia must have known the consequences of firing dumb missles close to the borders. This has been Putin game all along. He is escalating to see if NATO won't cower in fear and force Ukraine into negotiations
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Reports from Poland indicate it was a recoil from a missile shot down by Ukrainian forces. Even if that is not true, it more likely than not would have been just a miscalculated shot. They did not deliberately send a missile to Poland to ‘test’ NATO, they know very well any deliberate attack on NATO will cause a response.

It really is not something that should or will escalate into anything bigger. Very unfortunate that two people died as a result but it’s just bad luck.
 
Sarni said:
Reports from Poland indicate it was a recoil from a missile shot down by Ukrainian forces. Even if that is not true, it more likely than not would have been just a miscalculated shot. They did not deliberately send a missile to Poland to ‘test’ NATO, they know very well any deliberate attack on NATO will cause a response.
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The Russians knew of that risk and they kept firing these missles. Thyme expect a response and that response should be given. Putin only understand strength
 
Frosty said:




Telegram channels are the only ones who still think Britain's standing on the world stage is as large as it was in the past. Which is ironic given the way the Russian state succeeded in bringing about Brexit.
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It truly is bizarre how they’re rooted in the past. Almost certainly is an accident but needs to be some kind of reaction, maybe Polish boots on the group solely to man AD in the west or something.
 
devilish said:
The Russians knew of that risk and they kept firing these missles. Thyme expect a response and that response should be given. Putin only understand strength
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Precisely. The only reason they’re firing these rockets with no military purpose is that they know Ukraine doesn’t have long range weapons to retaliate, so this attack never happens on Polish soil if NATO doesn’t play around with these half measures.
 
devilish said:
Russia must have known the consequences of firing dumb missles close to the borders. This has been Putin game all along. He is escalating to see if NATO won't cower in fear and force Ukraine into negotiations
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Yep. People are extremely naive if they think Russians will be cursing their damn luck for a missile “accidentally” having entered NATO territory.

The Russians have got to be careful what they wish for though. The Germans might send some more helmets before long.
 
Simbo said:
Poland has patriots, at the very least I'd expect them to now move AD close to the border to intercept anything heading their direction, possibly protecting Lviv.
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Poland are Ukraine no 1 ally. Ukrainians are being trained there
 
Simbo said:
Poland has patriots, at the very least I'd expect them to now move AD close to the border to intercept anything heading their direction, possibly protecting Lviv.
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Lviv is 70km from the Russian border, Patriot batteries inside Poland would have almost no chance of intercepting missiles heading towards Lviv, they would have to be placed much closer to have any realistic chance of intercepting them.
 
devilish said:
The Russians knew of that risk and they kept firing these missles. Thyme expect a response and that response should be given. Putin only understand strength
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This is sage advice and should be followed from basil to london.
 
Just put the best and most updated NATO air defense right along the line of the border, partially covering Ukrainian territory too.

Seriously this was bound to happen. Think I spoke about it few months ago...
 
TMDaines said:
Yep. People are extremely naive if they think Russians will be cursing their damn luck for a missile “accidentally” having entered NATO territory.

The Russians have got to be careful what they wish for though. The Germans might send some more helmets before long.
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Russia had already targeted nato infrastructure (nordstream)and got away with it. Now it's stepping another notch
 
By the way, tomorrow Ramstein-7 will be held…I expect now a huge shift in the mood and weaponry support in terms of what’s going to be on the table for Ukraine.
 
I think poland could enforce defensive stands in its borders and shoot anything that comes close to its borders with ukraine's permission. Even a no fly buffer zone. Would be only fair to protect their population
 
4bars said:
I think poland could enforce defensive stands in its borders and shoot anything that comes close to its borders with ukraine's permission. Even a no fly buffer zone. Would be only fair to protect their population
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When Russia struck the barracks early on near Lviv and the Polish border, I argued the same thing based on the premise that a Russian missile would inevitably cross the border with strikes so close to Poland. Setting up an air defense shield for the NATO borders could also cover a sizable distance into Ukraine to prevent incoming missiles from striking again. It will also give the Poles and others practical experience using Patriot and other air defense systems.
 
I’m seeing invoke article 5 and WW3 trend over Twitter. I’ll be honest this won’t be a popular view, it’s probably a cowardly view and I’ll accept that. But treaties are made to be broken. I really hope the U.K. doesn’t get involved. My view is like with all wars the U.K. has a great defensive military and is very unlikely to ever get invaded or attacked as long as we don’t do anything to annoy the USA or get the Europeans to unite against us.

Let’s just stay in our lane, enjoy being an Island. No need to be fighting wars abroad and inviting stuff to happen here.
 
First of all, sad news about those 2 people who died.

However, if the West is still holding itself back from more weapon deliveries, I think that strategy definitely deserves a re-evaluation.
 
Sir Matt said:
When Russia struck the barracks early on near Lviv and the Polish border, I argued the same thing based on the premise that a Russian missile would inevitably cross the border with strikes so close to Poland. Setting up an air defense shield for the NATO borders could also cover a sizable distance into Ukraine to prevent incoming missiles from striking again. It will also give the Poles and others practical experience using Patriot and other air defense systems.
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Well, i dont know if a preventive stand was correct, but now that had been proven nand it killed 2 poles, russia would not have much saying diplomatically

At the same time, would be a notch more to escalation and might cause more russian oopsies as they are "in their right to attack ukraine and anything that defense them actively"

I would like to see a tangible response at least. Not necessary military and not just words
 
AlPistacho said:
I’m seeing invoke article 5 and WW3 trend over Twitter. I’ll be honest this won’t be a popular view, it’s probably a cowardly view and I’ll accept that. But treaties are made to be broken. I really hope the U.K. doesn’t get involved. My view is like with all wars the U.K. has a great defensive military and is very unlikely to ever get invaded or attacked as long as we don’t do anything to annoy the USA or get the Europeans to unite against us.

Let’s just stay in our lane, enjoy being an Island. No need to be fighting wars abroad and inviting stuff to happen here.
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First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
 
devilish said:
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
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You aren't using Niemoller to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, surely?
 
Frosty said:
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OSINT nerds are currently falling over themselves to be the first to identify it, there doesn't seem to be a consensus. Poland have stated its an air launch cruise missile (not s-300). Wait and see on this one.

ha, they deleted that tweet already.
 
Simbo said:
OSINT nerds are currently falling over themselves to be the first to identify it, there doesn't seem to be a consensus. Poland have stated its an air launch cruise missile (not s-300). Wait and see on this one.

ha, they deleted that tweet already.
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And... it is now deleted. Shame. I posted it because that account is fairly reliable for information. Guess we will wait and see what the confirmed origin of the weapon is.
 
AlPistacho said:
I’m seeing invoke article 5 and WW3 trend over Twitter. I’ll be honest this won’t be a popular view, it’s probably a cowardly view and I’ll accept that. But treaties are made to be broken. I really hope the U.K. doesn’t get involved. My view is like with all wars the U.K. has a great defensive military and is very unlikely to ever get invaded or attacked as long as we don’t do anything to annoy the USA or get the Europeans to unite against us.

Let’s just stay in our lane, enjoy being an Island. No need to be fighting wars abroad and inviting stuff to happen here.
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Some (or actually a majority as certain referendum showed) of the British people wish to completely isolate themselves from everything that's happening outside the British islands is surely a sight to behold. Just live in a bubble, enjoy being an island and completely ignore what happens anywhere else, might be a good idea to fortify the island even more, build a dome or something (with a direct way out to Benidorm or other tourist hot spots in Europe unless they get occupied too but in that case, oh well, what can you do eh).
 
Frosty said:
And... it is now deleted. Shame. I posted it because that account is fairly reliable for information. Guess we will wait and see what the confirmed origin of the weapon is.
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Yeh i'm seeing reliable people say different things. Listening to someone in the field who's conclusion after studying all the images for 30 mins was basically "dunno".
 
Looks increasingly like either a Ukraine S300 failure, or an S300 missile hit a Russian cruise missile mid-air and both fell onto Polish territory.
 
spiriticon said:
Looks increasingly like either a Ukraine S300 failure, or an S300 missile hit a Russian cruise missile mid-air and both fell onto Polish territory.
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Where do you get this from? This has basically been rejected outright as a possibility from what I have seen (Ukraine S300 failure) and statements from defense ministries across Europe who have more intelligence regarding this basically confirm it was Russian missile, the question is basically was it deliberate or not at this stage.
 
AlPistacho said:
I’m seeing invoke article 5 and WW3 trend over Twitter. I’ll be honest this won’t be a popular view, it’s probably a cowardly view and I’ll accept that. But treaties are made to be broken. I really hope the U.K. doesn’t get involved. My view is like with all wars the U.K. has a great defensive military and is very unlikely to ever get invaded or attacked as long as we don’t do anything to annoy the USA or get the Europeans to unite against us.

Let’s just stay in our lane, enjoy being an Island. No need to be fighting wars abroad and inviting stuff to happen here.
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Whatever war that happens in Europe affects Britain, if not militarily then economically.
 
Rajma said:
Where do you get this from? This has basically been rejected outright as a possibility from what I have seen and statements from defense ministries across Europe who have more intelligence regarding this basically confirm it was Russian missile, the question is basically was it deliberate or not at this stage.
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Also, I don't think Russia targeted a Polish tractor on purpose. They'd be better off hitting links to Rzeczow
 
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