It’s so bizarre, all the military analysts agree it doesn’t hold any great tactical value but Russia have been throwing waves of soldiers at it for months at catastrophic loss.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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I think they think that it is key to defend (or prevent UKR from attacking) big cities around there, such as Donetsk and Luhansk. The area apparently has a UKR logistic hub there or is a good place for fortification.
What I've read (newspaper possibly?) is that it's all Wagner in Bakhmut. Prigozhin has been criticizing the Russian army a lot while claiming that Wagner would do better. They therefore can't afford losing this battleground - it would show they're just as incapable of fighting Ukraine successfully. So the argument is that this emphasis on Bakhmut isn't about the city but about Wagner's reputation.
I just don't want to read too much into those childish rivalries between them. UKR forces have been reinforcing a city to the north of Bakhmut lately. There is a reason why UKR forces are defending the city with their own losses on that front. Even if it is a 1 to 6 ratio (if true), it has to add up to a large number of casualties after months. I just think that UKR would require a location to serve as a command post if they were to march to those major cities, and this location is ideal for that purpose. It has good fortifications and logistical connections, which is why the city has withstood Wagner's assaults in waves for months.
Wagner knows it, and they want to capture that city for their possible offensive in the other direction as well. At least, having it would protect their left flank on Donetsk oblast, I would think.
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I thought the same. Looked like just water being thrown up, not much debris.
Something very odd going on in kherson. Looks like the bulk of the Russian forces have withdrawn to the other side of the river. Russian flag has been removed from the main administration building.
Locals reporting only odd small groups of Russians remain.
This smells very much like a trap to me. Giving up the largest city captured with a whimper, especially as putin made such a big thing of taking it for Russia, forever.
Lots of heavy Russian artilery still on the far bank of the river, plus Russia asking civilians to leave over the last few days make me think there may be a nasty turn coming.
Not sure what, but could be a tactical nuke ( unlikely I think) blow the dam ( possible, but likely the Ukrainians have prepped for this). Could also be a thermobaric shit storm coming for Ukrainian troops if they mass in the city.
This would be the easiest option for the Russian forces and most in keeping with their m.o so far. Raize anything to the ground.
Hope I'm wrong and they have just fecked off to Moscow
Locals reporting only odd small groups of Russians remain.
This smells very much like a trap to me. Giving up the largest city captured with a whimper, especially as putin made such a big thing of taking it for Russia, forever.
Lots of heavy Russian artilery still on the far bank of the river, plus Russia asking civilians to leave over the last few days make me think there may be a nasty turn coming.
Not sure what, but could be a tactical nuke ( unlikely I think) blow the dam ( possible, but likely the Ukrainians have prepped for this). Could also be a thermobaric shit storm coming for Ukrainian troops if they mass in the city.
This would be the easiest option for the Russian forces and most in keeping with their m.o so far. Raize anything to the ground.
Hope I'm wrong and they have just fecked off to Moscow
I don't think the Russian army has the capability to raize Kherson to the ground. If they had that fire power, they could have destroyed the amassing Ukrainian forces heading for Kherson without any retreat.
I think this pretty much confirms that Russia doesn't have the ability to hold Kherson and actually are doing the smart thing for once - performing an orderly retreat.
Whatever they're planning, let's hope the NSA is reading their mail
Yeah it would be a logistical headache for Ukraine but they could (and probably have already planned to) just shift a logistics hub back to a safer city if needs be.
I have actually seen people saying the Wagner group probably has Bakhmut as a specific part of their contract and so they have to try and take it. Pure speculation of course but it just seems a bit odd.
Iran lining up to attack Saudi supposedly now, world’s gone mad.
It does have the hallmarks of a trap, seen more reports of troops dressing in civ clothing too.
I think it’s more likely the constant logistics pressure Ukraine has been putting on them the last few months is taking its toll. They just can’t operate that side of the river, the bridges are kept unusable, pontoon was blown up again the other day. They may expect an attack soon so need to save/loot what they can.
Be funny if Ukraine just bypass it, jump over the river and push south.
Oh I do hope so
https://news.sky.com/story/britain-too-deep-into-ukraine-war-russian-ambassador-says-12737416
Telling us what we already know.
Telling us what we already know.
I think UKR would be wise to keep a safe distance from the city for the time being while attacking them with artillery. It keeps tons of Russians troops occupied there. If UKR keeps up with their offensives in the east, the Russians will simply abandon it for fear of being surrounded from the east. Once UKR forces get armed, Russians are never going to keep a big city like Kherson for a long time anyway.
It also gives them headaches for providing support to the area.
It also gives them headaches for providing support to the area.
However...
AP Report on Bucha.
Surely you mean an orderly gesture of goodwill?
There is a lot of data this graphic, but if you want a summary pick out the yellow line in the graph which is the 7-day KIA average. It currently stands at 734 (840 was yesterday‘s number). This increase is not just from the Bakhmut meat grinder but the broader Luhansk and Donetsk frontlines down to Vuhledar.
Numbers are from the UA MoD. Standard disclaimer that this post is a mix of official and unofficial sources, take with a grain of salt, etc. etc.
Numbers are from the UA MoD. Standard disclaimer that this post is a mix of official and unofficial sources, take with a grain of salt, etc. etc.
Damn that stuff is expensive.
Might be important to think about some kind of "effect-per-dollar" analysis. We should focus on what's cheapest while being most effective, to get the best effect.
Might be important to think about some kind of "effect-per-dollar" analysis. We should focus on what's cheapest while being most effective, to get the best effect.
That’s a pretty sobering documentary.
I'm sure they are already. I imagine part of their calculation will include the continued impact on the world economy if Russia wins and/or other countries like China decide to exert greater force on Taiwan.
More Czech T-72 tanks, as well as other items, are reportedly on the way.
I'm curious though if supplying them with more artillery ammunition would be less expensive (?) and more effective on the ground, as that's how they lost territories in the east, and now that they have superior firepower in the south, the Russians have begun to rattle.
Meant from ukrainian side.
So Luhansk then.
Hopefully this is a bs story, otherwise, this would be an insane own goal. I don’t think any Ukrainian leadership at this point can survive domestically if it chooses to negotiate on giving up more of its territories. This would again embolden Putin’s regime and bring about chaos to Ukrainian politics.
Im curious why in your opinion negotiating would be bad.
Imagine having an opportunity to stop killing 1000+ people per day and de-escalating political tension that could lead to MAD and saying no we will not do that.
Because previous negotiations with Russia have led to exactly this? Every time the price will go up. By no one I mean Ukrainian people. Curious question would you agree to give up Slovenian sovereignty to Russia for peace?
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There's been no indication that Russia is willing to give back the territory they've annexed so negotiations are a non-starter from a Ukrainian perspective.
Edit: And a deal with Russia isn't worth anything as we've seen.
We should know by now that negotiating with Russia is a waste of time as it's been proven time and time again during the history of mankind. Right now it only suits them, that's why they are talking louder and louder about it and I bet Ukraine will be forced to negotiate again because the last treaty between Russia and Ukraine worked really well...... There is simply no possibility of "de-escalating political tension" as long as Putin rules Russia, and most likely even after that.
Because the Kremlin has shown time and time again that they are nothing but two-faced snakes. Have you seen what they did regarding the grain deal just the other day? How can anyone sane trust anything coming out of Putin or his minions whey they show zero respect for any deal? Russia ain't going to give back annexed lands unless they face into a situation similar to Germany's at the end of 1918 - a total collapse of the government.
Having read the article, it’s a bit of a clickbait headline. Also not sure how it’s news, obviously the US is trying to balance allies to ensure maximum pressure is kept up on Russia.