Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

If no one was crushed by that vehicle rolling, with all those people on top, it's very lucky.
 
The Russians appear to have recently attempted to launch offensives in the east, and the high number of casualties (if true and higher than usual) are most likely the result of those efforts.
 
That’s not the first time during this war that I’ve seen footage of Russians driving their vehicles off the side of a perfectly straight road. Wild

I wonder if the driver saw a mine or the weight of 20 soldiers on top unbalanced it
 
Predictably seems like we have another massive missile attack all over Ukraine.
 
I wonder if the driver saw a mine or the weight of 20 soldiers on top unbalanced it
I think it's more likely that the driver just couldn't see anything because too many people were sitting on the vehicle.
 
Something to keep an eye on.


Certainly something to keep an eye on. Russia can always play the "we never did and will never do harm civilians and since we are the good guys here, we let you pass" but it would make them look weak at the same time, which I am sure is the last thing Putin wants. Interesting how this will pan out.
 
What are they going to do about it, attack NATO-member ships?
 
80% Kiev without access to water after the latest missile attack, how long are we gonna just observe the genocide from the outside?
 
80% Kiev without access to water after the latest missile attack, how long are we gonna just observe the genocide from the outside?
Completely agree it’s hard to watch and feels like we need to act

but what Russia has shown us is that it would be no match for NATO’s forces and weapons. As the attacks are coming from within Russia, it would most likely end up starting wwiii as we’d need to attack Russian territory - which given what I just said re not a match for contemporary weapons, would most likely end in nuclear. It is not an option at the moment
 
Completely agree it’s hard to watch and feels like we need to act

but what Russia has shown us is that it would be no match for NATO’s forces and weapons. As the attacks are coming from within Russia, it would most likely end up starting wwiii as we’d need to attack Russian territory - which given what I just said re not a match for contemporary weapons, would most likely end in nuclear. It is not an option at the moment
Nato jets can easily shot down any incoming missiles without striking Russia.
 
This is discussion is purely academical and practically a no-go.

For NATO planes to protect the airspace of Ukraine they'd need to fly over Ukraine. You can't shoot down missiles over Ukraine while your planes are flying over Poland/Czechia/Moldova. There won't be enough time to detect and react to the incoming missiles. The area of Ukraine is littered with Russian and Ukrainian air-defences. Air-defences can tell friend from foe, but they can't tell you the nationality of the foe. Therefore NATO planes, like Ukrainian planes will become an immediate target for Russian SAMs. In order to operate freely and safely, they'll need first to neutralise Russian air-defences.

(Note: This is what closing an airspace involves. Bombing. Neutralising hostile ground targets that can pose a threat to your air dominance.)

If NATO-operated planes start bombing Russian SAM sites in Ukraine, then all bets are off. It's direct conflict between NATO and Russia then, and it cannot really be spun any other way.
 
I dont think NATO planes shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine would be treated nicely by Putin.
Since the start of the war and the first big campaign of "no fly zone" over Ukraine - the problem that rose up wasn't about that, more like what if Russia manages to shoot down NATO aircrafts, what "our" answer has to be to that - not what would Russia do, if we shoot down theirs.
 
This is discussion is purely academical and practically a no-go.

For NATO planes to protect the airspace of Ukraine they'd need to fly over Ukraine. You can't shoot down missiles over Ukraine while your planes are flying over Poland/Czechia/Moldova. There won't be enough time to detect and react to the incoming missiles. The area of Ukraine is littered with Russian and Ukrainian air-defences. Air-defences can tell friend from foe, but they can't tell you the nationality of the foe. Therefore NATO planes, like Ukrainian planes will become an immediate target for Russian SAMs. In order to operate freely and safely, they'll need first to neutralise Russian air-defences.

(Note: This is what closing an airspace involves. Bombing. Neutralising hostile ground targets that can pose a threat to your air dominance.)

If NATO-operated planes start bombing Russian SAM sites in Ukraine, then all bets are off. It's direct conflict between NATO and Russia then, and it cannot really be spun any other way.
But Russia fires these missiles from Caspian sea, and not from temporarily occupied regions anyway. I’m talking about simply shielding the skies of major cities without getting anywhere near the frontlines. Russia will run out of missiles eventually, no?
 
A better and more extensive AD network is the obvious answer here before you go any where near a discussion of NATO jets.

Ukraine is citing 88% success rate in shooting down the latest missile barrage, which is extremely good, but not enough. More systems are gradually being delivered, just slowly.
 
Also, you can always do the little green men tactics of Crimea and don’t have Nato badges on these jets.
 
Also, you can always do the little green men tactics of Crimea and don’t have Nato badges on these jets.
Problem is, that this would be quite obvious as NATO uses different planes than Ukraine. Although in generally I love the idea of striking Russia with their own tactics (Polands statement "somehow a bunch of T-72 disappeared from our storage" was brilliant stuff and the closest I'm aware of that NATO got to the little green men tactics).
 
But Russia fires these missiles from Caspian sea, and not from temporarily occupied regions anyway.

That doesn't have anything to do with it. Those missiles are guided by GLONASS satellites against relatively static locations in Ukraine. They travel at Mach speeds. Even if you know a missile has been fired at you (say visual confirmation via satellites), you still need the missile to be eventually detected by a radar which will guide your intercepting missiles to them. Your intercepting missiles will have small radars of their own in their nose. However your radars are obstructed by earth's curvature and those cruise missiles fly low, in order to maximise stealth.

So your jets/AWACS will need to fly high in order to maximise their radar "view" (which makes the planes a target themselves) and they will still only be able to see those missiles relatively late, given the travelling speed of those missiles.

I’m talking about simply shielding the skies of major cities without getting anywhere near the frontlines. Russia will run out of missiles eventually, no?

Some of those cities (Kharkiv, Zaporozhia, Mykolaiv) are only a few miles from the front and Russian air-defences. A plane flying over them, high enough to be able to detect and intercept cruise missiles, will be easily picked up by Russian radars and SAM sites in the area.

The rule of thumb is, if you can see something by radar it can likely see you back. And if what you're trying to detect is flying close to the earth's surface? Well you get the idea. Your jets would be visible to enemy radar and exposed, unless you neutralise their radars and SAM sites.
 
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The IRIS-T air defense system, provided by Germany earlier this month, worked today with 100% results, but more such systems are needed, - the spokesman of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ignat
 
Shooting down missiles wouldn't trigger anything. Shooting down planes is a totally different ballgame
Air to air missiles uses either infrared or radar seekers to track their targets, neither of those systems would be able to tell the difference between a cruise missile and a fighter jet so picking and choosing what to shoot down isn't really an option.
Even if it was possible every NATO plane entering Ukrainian airspace would be targeted by Russian ground based air defences.

The only way NATO airforces would be able to protect Ukraine is to first suppress or destroy most of the Russian ground based air defences and then shut down the airspace over Ukraine completely and that means engaging any hostile targets in the area.
 
About the cruise missile attacks today: Russia fired 50 cruise missiles, 44 were intercepted, only 6 hit their targets.

Usually both the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Fleet were used to launch cruise missiles, but this time only the Caspian Fleet was active. This creates questions about the state of the Black Sea Fleet after the attack on Sevastopol a few days ago.
 
About the cruise missile attacks today: Russia fired 50 cruise missiles, 44 were intercepted, only 6 hit their targets.

Usually both the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Fleet were used to launch cruise missiles, but this time only the Caspian Fleet was active. This creates questions about the state of the Black Sea Fleet after the attack on Sevastopol a few days ago.
Sea drones stronk
 
There's been some talk in here about alleged spying in Norway, with some arrests made. Drones and the like. I don't think much is known about those cases yet, but one person arrested in Svalbard is Andrey Yakunin, son of Vladimir Yakunin who has pretty close ties to Putin (Wiki link). https://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/...-er-en-del-av-putins-absolutt-naermeste-krets

What the cases involving drones mean is hard to say, because with the sanctions it's illegal no matter how benign the filming is so it can be anything. In this specific instance it's also a bit more unclear about the legalities with Svalbard having some laws about discrimination based on nationality that may or may not be relevant here. More on that: https://www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnmark/angriper-droneforbudet_-_-bryter-mot-svalbardtraktaten-1.16145691

Both articles in Norwegian, so you'll have to use a translator if you're interested in details.

Yakunin released, decision appealed. Court says drones aren't covered by the sanctions.

https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/q1PprE/lagmannsretten-vil-loeslate-dronesiktede-andrej-jakunin

Courts have again said to release Yakunin, police still appealing. Not sure what the difference between today and Thursday is.

Decision says that the anti-Russian measures are illegal in Svalbard because of their discrimination laws, and it's also discovered that he was arrested for filming people doing sports.

https://direkte.vg.no/nyhetsdognet/...ovedlopet_row7_pos1&utm_medium=df-86-b201a007
 
Playing slight devil's advocate here (and I understand the human desire to get involved and help, especially for the neighbouring countries of Ukraine) but how do people square a desire to see NATO (as opposed to individual countries helping with supplies etc ) get directly involved, by setting up a no-fly zone for instance, with the statement that NATO is a purely defensive alliance?

And before people come frothing at the mouth. Yes Putin is a scumbag and wrong. Yes I hope Ukraine win. Yes I don't mid supporting Ukraine. No I don't think NATO is a justification for this war etc etc etc.