From what I gather, Israel has been heavily involved in intel operations there since this began. With boots on the ground there.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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From what I gather, Israel has been heavily involved in intel operations there since this began. With boots on the ground there.
Is that an official government tweet? Inappropriate and silly.
I find exceptionalism is alive and well in Europe at a time when it's been largely blunted in the states.Please don't do that to him
I didn't feel offended by him posting that, there is no reason to make fun of him that way
interesting article
Newsweek: Russians in Ukraine Preparing to Help Overthrow Putin—Opposition Leader.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukr...dimir-putin-opposition-ilya-ponomarev-1753527
Newsweek: Russians in Ukraine Preparing to Help Overthrow Putin—Opposition Leader.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukr...dimir-putin-opposition-ilya-ponomarev-1753527
How possible is Russian offensive in the north or north east (Kharkiv region) some time soon or in the spring?
At this point it's very unlikely Russia has any capabilities of any serious offensive and Ukraine will be prepared much better as well. They couldn't properly support their troops at the beginning of the invasion, losing thousands of armoured vehicles, tanks, fuel trucks etc. would surely not help the case. Not to mention that the new influx of troops should be a lot less motivated, experienced and equipped.
Yeah makes sense, their tactic now seems to be to destroy as much as Ukraine as they can.
North would mean Belarus, just read a nice thread on the situation there:
In summary there isn't an increase in troops at the border, Russian mobiks send to Belarus are going to training bases, not near the border and Belarus is handing heavy equipment over to Russia instead of concentrating it at a possible new front. So Belarus is actually losing attacking potential for the future as well. There won't be any new attack on Kyiv soon and even later it seems unlikely.
I forget who said it, but when Russia made that last push from the Kherson area towards Odessa and it failed, months ago, he said that would be the last major offensive Russia would be able to muster.
And he was right, so far.
And he was right, so far.
It was a very useful and convenient distraction from the multiple domestic crises he was dealing with when Russia invaded.
Seems strange they would be there, it's very likely where the next big offensive will take place. Although I suppose there's some uncertainty surrounding the dam and all of that.
Bakhmut may fall to the Russians though and it is their current offensive but who knows what they will do next.
I think they may still have some capacity to do another major offensive somewhere.
Ups.
Hard to feel Ukraine isn't entitled to strike within proper Russia by now. Only reason not to is it might be counter productive.
They have struck within Russia.
They took out a lot their bases at Belgorod, Crimea*, Etc. Thing is just for a sake of ot they won't waste a single missile, only hitting pre scouted targets which are relevant in terms of their defence.
Even since day 1 they hit Belgorod. They only tend to hit military targets or strategic infrastructure (bridges) .
By all accounts, there is not much of Bakhmut left. If those sort of gains are what a major russian offensive gets you now, they truly are fecked.
Russian mobiks undergo their 2 days long training with purpose:
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I'm more concerned that Russians still have capacity to capture heavily fortified places.
It will pave the way to access inner areas and hit the Ukrainian forces from behind. Whether they have a logistics mean to do it, who knows. But they will gather everything they can and do a major offensive somewhere at some point, I think.
They had last 2 months to gather large forces, dig in and defend Kherson, and they are unable to do that, and it's easier to defend than it is to attack.
Unless russian Jesus comes down to aid them, they are not capturing anything of note any time soon.
I do hope that you are right. I just think that people who we listen to are too optimistic about how weak the Russian army is right now. I am not that optimistic.
Yeah, obviously the Russians aren't knocked out yet and this war may take a long while to end. Ukraine still has to resort to trench warfare here and there. They have firepower but not the kind of firepower that enables them to blow away the Russians and suffer limited ground casualties.
However, it does seem that the initiative has shifted to the Ukrainians and Russia has to react mostly.
The thing with modern warfare is that everything is seen and anticipated well in advance due to modern reconnaisance elements, so you will not have an unexpected charge from a cavalry coming down the flank. It will take a long time to build up forces and will be well anticipated.
Russian army is not weak, but they are definetly past their peak attacking power, with all the personel and material they have lost, and unless they change drastically and can finally accept strategic losses, to not lose the war of attrition, they are going to be on the backfoot.
They have gone as far as they can, and bar ukrainian strategic fails, are not going to get any further, but in their mind, it's unacceptable to even be stopped by ukrainian army, let alone have no advances, so they can't settle for what they have and keep throwing people at failed advances.
It won't, not any longer at least. When the attack on Bakhmut started in late spring, it was part of a pincer movement to encircle Ukrainian troops in Donbas. This was the southern attack and they are still attacking the first obstacle half a year later. Meanwhile the complete northern part of that pincing movement was totally obliterated by Ukraine in the meantime. That's why Bakhmut has become quite irrelevant by now, it doesn't really hurt Ukraine to lose the City area and it doesn't help Russia much as now all roads lead to Ukrainian controlled territory. So no, it won't pave the way. Ukraine doesn't really lose anything allowing Russia to take the ruins, but it can cynically optimize their loss ratio there by slowly retreating and making Russia pay for every meter.
I'm not sure if it's completely irrelevant now because the Ukrainians have lost a lot of men defending it (according to some Twitter accounts). There might still be a decent enough reason why both sides are going hard at it there.
Russian army has become a bit of joke here, of course. But the bold part though, how many people had thought or seen UKR forces would do that North Eastern's counterattack? Armies can still surprise people even with advanced reconnaissance elements. The Russians are indeed building up forces at this moment, hence, I am anticipating there will be some big movement in the coming months from them. Whether they can get what they want is a different thing altogether, of course.
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The loss ratio is still 1 to 6.5 so, despite Ukrainian forces obviously having losses, theirs has never been that significant.
Not that I don't trust you. Where do you get those numbers? What I want to know is the total number of casualties from both sides and might have an idea if UKR forces are trying hard to defend it.
The point is that UKR forces are not afraid to retreat and regroup and they don't let their men die for places that are not strategically important.
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Walter can get carried away sometimes but he's got sources on the ground.
Bakhmut isn't important for Ukraine, but it's strategically important to keep the Wagner forces busy somewhere. Had those been moved to strengthen the defences around Kharkiv the offensive would have been much more difficult.
Loss ratios always favour the defender so Ukraine chose to defend against Wagner in Bakhmut instead of leaving it and having to attack Wagner elsewhere.
A few have said though that it is a key logistical hub for both sides to maintain their southern front. But it looks like every city and village has become a key hub nowadays anyway if we are to believe people online.
Keeping Wagner may be the main reason here and which is an important objective for UKR. Wagner group can always turn south from there after capturing it and hit UKR forces from behind at Kherson front? It may be the reason why UKR are defending it like they did in Mariupol.
All considering, the place seems to be a very important place for UKR to hold as long as they can.