Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

That’s interesting and a really good illustration of why this conflict has been so traumatic for Ukraine and Ukrainians. People looked equally East and West back then, if not more to the East. It has changed so much in the last decade, particularly in the younger generations.

I just consider the perception of how Russia is viewed through the Ukrainians I know and it is a complete sea change from pre-2014, to post-2014, to now. The Sochi Olympics were seen as exciting and an opportunity for Ukrainians, with the games making an unlikely visit to their part of the world, then Russia occupied Crimea and Donbas to make life never the same again.
Joining NATO was unpopular until 2014, but even before 2014 (in fact at least since mid 00s) the majority was already rather in favor of EU vs some EU-like union with Russia. But of course it was more like 60-40 (and majority still wanted to maintain good relationship with Russia at the same time and had a generally positive view on Russia). Which became more like 80-20 after 2014 (with views on Russia becoming more negative) and almost 100-0 after 2022.

So It is important to understand that while in general friendly to Russia, Ukraine was already trending in the direction of EU long before 2014, just gradually - and with of course wide regional (and age) differences. Even Yanukovich had to run on pro-EU platform in 2010 since he had no chance to win otherwise. And when he made an u-turn to align with Russia against the wishes of the majority of the population, he lost power.

What is stunning is actually how little accurate intelligence on Ukraine reached the upper echelons of Russian power. There were lots of assumptions they made that even a casual observer of Ukraine with at least some degree of impartiality could immediately flag as completely wrong. Such as the assumption of the vast majority of population in all territories apart from the western Ukraine being more or less pro-russian and welcoming or not minding Russian rule, armed forces except a couple of "nationalistic batallions" not resisting/changing sides etc.

What is even more outrageous, is the fact that before the war there was a poll of ordinary Russians - and the majority even of Putin's supporters (!) correctly said that Ukraine would resist and that their population wouldn't be happy about the invasion of Russia. Just shows you how out-of-touch with reality Putin became.
 
Joining NATO was unpopular until 2014, but even before 2014 (in fact at least since mid 00s) the majority was already rather in favor of EU vs some EU-like union with Russia. But of course it was more like 60-40 (and majority still wanted to maintain good relationship with Russia at the same time and had a generally positive view on Russia). Which became more like 80-20 after 2014 (with views on Russia becoming more negative) and almost 100-0 after 2022.

So It is important to understand that while in general friendly to Russia, Ukraine was already trending in the direction of EU long before 2014, just gradually - and with of course wide regional (and age) differences. Even Yanukovich had to run on pro-EU platform in 2010 since he had no chance to win otherwise. And when he made an u-turn to align with Russia against the wishes of the majority of the population, he lost power.

What is stunning is actually how little accurate intelligence on Ukraine reached the upper echelons of Russian power. There were lots of assumptions they made that even a casual observer of Ukraine with at least some degree of impartiality could immediately flag as completely wrong. Such as the assumption of the vast majority of population in all territories apart from the western Ukraine being more or less pro-russian and welcoming or not minding Russian rule, armed forces except a couple of "nationalistic batallions" not resisting/changing sides etc.

What is even more outrageous, is the fact that before the war there was a poll of ordinary Russians - and the majority even of Putin's supporters (!) correctly said that Ukraine would resist and that their population wouldn't be happy about the invasion of Russia. Just shows you how out-of-touch with reality Putin became.
Yes, don't disagree with anything here.
 
Dont understand is why kidnap them. Surely they won't be used as child soldiers in the fight.
Their population is going to collapse, worse than most other developer nations. A healthy demographic would look like cables on a bridge, with the difference in the layers getting a bit greater as you go down. I can't find a picture that will let me load it.

The arrows point to the age group that will fill most of their armed forces.
Russia%20Demographics.jpg
 
Their population is going to collapse, worse than most other developer nations. A healthy demographic would look like cables on a bridge, with the difference in the layers getting a bit greater as you go down. I can't find a picture that will let me load it.

The arrows point to the age group that will fill most of their armed forces.
Russia%20Demographics.jpg

That's crazy. But I guess you expect the worst of humanity in a war like coming up with the ideas like comfort women or child soldiers.
 


A good reminder that Musk’s high profile offers to help are never altruistic.

That's crazy. But I guess you expect the worst of humanity in a war like coming up with the ideas like comfort women or child soldiers.
This is absolutely no better.
 
Musk is a prick, but then again that should have been obvious since day one. Suppose Ukraine have done well to get this far without him rug pulling them.

Is there an alternative to Starlink? What do NATO armies in the field use for communication - surely we have some slightly-not-as-good-as-our-elite comms to share with them, to mitigate the risk of it getting captured by Russia?

Can the US Gov requisition Starlink (I partly jest)?
 
Hell have us believe he’s just a prick but seems to me he’s fallen under Russian influence one way or another. All the signs are there. He’s a prime target for obvious reasons.
 
I thought the Pentagon was already paying like 5x the normal price for all this stuff.

An article came out months ago saying it was the US paying for Starlink but they asked Musk to take credit because they were more worried in those days about escalation.

So it seems to me he's just after PR points for bringing up his supposed generosity.
 
Wasn't it supposed to be repaired in days according to them right after it was struck?

 
Musk's 'just doing as I was told Tweet' is disgusting. Wanker.
However Melnyk saying "f*ck off" to him wasn't the smartest move either. As usual. That guy really has to be the worst diplomat Ukraine has...
 
I amazed people are actually looking up to this charlatan in this day and age.

On the more interesting note, people are now being hooked from the streets in Moscow for mobilization:


@harms watch out and don’t walk into one of the mobilization personnel as even health reasons seems to be brushed away in some cases.
 
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It's a bit mad that they've reached the stage when they have to pick up guys from the street to bolster the numbers. Surely it would be easier and more effective to bring their troops stationed in Eastern Siberia to the fray? I mean, it's as if Japan or South Korea are going to make a move on Vladivostok.
 
It's a bit mad that they've reached the stage when they have to pick up guys from the street to bolster the numbers. Surely it would be easier and more effective to bring their troops stationed in Eastern Siberia to the fray? I mean, it's as if Japan or South Korea are going to make a move on Vladivostok.
Japan is actually claiming the Kurile islands (at least some of them) and considers them to be occopied by Russia. So if those are left undefended Japan might want to take them back.
 
It's a bit mad that they've reached the stage when they have to pick up guys from the street to bolster the numbers. Surely it would be easier and more effective to bring their troops stationed in Eastern Siberia to the fray? I mean, it's as if Japan or South Korea are going to make a move on Vladivostok.
They’re already in Ukraine I’d wager as around 90% of their active armed forces are engaged in Ukraine.
 
Has Musk called left leaning people snowflakes in the US yet? That would be so typical to then see him melt like that due to a Twitter reply.
 

Last week, Saldo said Crimea had agreed to take 5,000 Kherson children “for rest” this autumn. Krasnodar and Stavropol had offered to take 10,000 parents and children each, he said.

Nice way of saying abduction of children.
 
Last week, Saldo said Crimea had agreed to take 5,000 Kherson children “for rest” this autumn. Krasnodar and Stavropol had offered to take 10,000 parents and children each, he said.

Nice way of saying abduction of children.

That's feckin disgusting.
 


Don't disagree with that reaction, I understand the negative reaction to Musk talking about concessions but if his technology was being provided for free and was, as the tweet says, a 'game changer' then telling him to feck off should be done with a bit of caution.

Hope sensible heads prevail and he continues to provide it for free, but then also bring appreciated for it.

Btw learnt someone I know who came to Munich fleeing the war just lost her brother and uncle, don't know if they were in the armed forces or due to the recent attacks on civilians. She's gone back to bury them :(
 
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Don't disagree with that reaction, I understand the negative reaction to Musk talking about concessions but if his technology was being provided for free and was, as the tweet says, a 'game changer' then telling him to feck off should be done with a bit of caution.

Hope sensible heads prevail and he continues to provide it for free, but then also bring appreciated for it.
Well, it wasn't provided for free. Majority of it has been bought by the Ukrainian soldiers themselves (or donated by someone else) and they keep paying monthly subscription fees up until now.
 
Well, it wasn't provided for free. Majority of it has been bought by the Ukrainian soldiers themselves (or donated by someone else) and they keep paying monthly subscription fees up until now.

Wait then why is the tweet saying it's free? Was it at a discounted cost or something?

If it isn't free then he's being an ass for cancelling it because someone swore at his suggestion.
 
Don't disagree with that reaction, I understand the negative reaction to Musk talking about concessions but if his technology was being provided for free and was, as the tweet says, a 'game changer' then telling him to feck off should be done with a bit of caution.

Hope sensible heads prevail and he continues to provide it for free, but then also bring appreciated for it.
Sure, it should have been done with more tact, but it's not a reason to make a giant shift in policy, if he really has been paying for part of the service. The person who made that response has been and continues to be under incredible pressure, I imagine.

If it's not the reason, it's dumb to make it look like he's that fragile.

Interesting about the source in Washington that's unhappy with him, but I don't have a subscription to read the article. Bringing Starlink to Ukraine, even if only for commercial reasons, isn't a problem for me, even if no one asked. It would be a bit cruel to provide it for free then remove it without some consultation about transiting to another system or looking at the value of keeping it going.
 
Wait then why is the tweet saying it's free? Was it at a discounted cost or something?

If it isn't free then he's being an ass for cancelling it because someone swore at his suggestion.
Just a very small sample of posts. I am not saying they haven't donated any terminals, they probably have but quite clearly a lot of it has been bought and is still being paid for monthly. He saw a perfect opportunity to advertise his product and he did, now in his typical fashion he will try to fleece the US gov too because he can now hold Ukraine hostage as their operations depend on it.