Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[frostbite]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/16/f-16s-patriots-ukraine-negotiations-00057262

Negotiations on whether to send F-16s and Patriots to Ukraine continue — but quietly

Ukraine has stopped asking for high-tech weapons in public. But that doesn’t mean they don’t want them.


Ukraine has stopped publicly asking for high-end U.S. weapons such as Patriot air defense systems, F-16 fighter jets and Gray Eagle drones.

But behind the scenes, the push hasn’t stopped for weapons that could turn the tide of the war. Kyiv’s just getting savvier about its requests.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

Even Russia Serbia won't recognise those referendums.

Well, Serbia is good and obedient lapdog, until they themselves are concerned. Recognizing these republics would effectively mean Serbia recognizes Kosovo and they will push the Kosovo recognition down the line for as long as it is possible.

 

[Gehrman]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...0894f47d8a5464#block-63306f4d8f0894f47d8a5464

US to act 'decisively' if Russia uses nuclear weapon in Ukraine
Edward Helmore

The US and its allies will act “decisively” if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, its national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday, reaffirming the Joe Biden White House’s previous response to mounting concerns that Vladimir Putin’s threats are in increased danger of being realised.

“We have communicated directly, privately and at very high levels to the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia, that the US and our allies will respond decisively, and we have been clear and specific about what that will entail,” Sullivan told CBS’s Face The Nation.

Sullivan said that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, had been “waving around the nuclear card at various points through this conflict”, and it was a matter that Biden’s administration has “to take deadly seriously because it is a matter of paramount seriousness – the possible use of nuclear weapons for the first time since the second world war”.

What is specific and clear thing the west will do if Putin uses nukes In Ukraine.

 

[sglowrider]

Surely there has to be US troops in UKR by now? All these sophisticated defense systems can't be operational so quickly manned by Ukrainians?

 

[nimic]

Surely there has to be US troops in UKR by now? All these sophisticated defense systems can't be operational so quickly manned by Ukrainians?

They've been trained, but I reckon there's very little chance that current members of the US armed forces are fighting in Ukraine.

 

[JuriM]

Surely there has to be US troops in UKR by now? All these sophisticated defense systems can't be operational so quickly manned by Ukrainians?

There a special groups of Ukrainian forces trained all over EU in different NATO bases to operate them, been already since like April or so.

 

[the hea]

Surely there has to be US troops in UKR by now? All these sophisticated defense systems can't be operational so quickly manned by Ukrainians?

7 months should be enough to train Ukrainian soldiers how to use NASAMS. Finland has the same system and they are operated mostly by conscripts that recieve between 6 and 12 months of training.

 

[The Firestarter]

Surely there has to be US troops in UKR by now? All these sophisticated defense systems can't be operational so quickly manned by Ukrainians?

For sure but as advisors/liason officers but not direct combat. For special forces its a bit murkier.

 

[harms]

Perhaps in Rostov region. It’s certainly far from official even though we all expect it to happen soon (28th is the most often quoted date).

 

[JuriM]

Was rather expected from anyone who remember the 90s, you can't mess with the people from like Dagestan and expect them to just compell.

 

[Dans]

Was rather expected from anyone who remember the 90s, you can't mess with the people from like Dagestan and expect them to just compell.

Wow!
Hopefully they follow through on that threat. Could be the beginning of the end for the madman.

 

[Rajma]

7 months should be enough to train Ukrainian soldiers how to use NASAMS. Finland has the same system and they are operated mostly by conscripts that recieve between 6 and 12 months of training.

Accidentally, on Saturday it happened to be an Army day here and we bumped into an exhibition of the most modern NATO weaponry at our disposal with NATO troops stationed next to them to answer any questions on these systems. NASAMS was as well there and when I asked the guy is it easy to operate, he said that it’s rather straightforward system to figure and it wouldn’t take an awful lot of time for someone to learn how to use it.

 

[calodo2003]

What is specific and clear thing the west will do if Putin uses nukes In Ukraine.

Entrance into the conflict with unlimited NATO forces? Maybe a corresponding, proportional tac nuke on Russian soil? Who knows?

 

[Red Star One]

Entrance into the conflict with unlimited NATO forces? Maybe a corresponding, proportional tac nuke on Russian soil? Who knows?

I think the brief was the answer would be “immediate” and with “conventional weapons”, so if I were to guess they just passed Putin the info that a nuclear strike in Ukraine would mean automatic missile attacks on Russia from NATO forces

 

[calodo2003]

I think the brief was the answer would be “immediate” and with “conventional weapons”, so if I were to guess they just passed Putin the info that a nuclear strike in Ukraine would mean automatic missile attacks on Russia from NATO forces

Sounds legit. Targeted at him / his upper echelon or more at military hardware?

 

[The Firestarter]

Wow!
Hopefully they follow through on that threat. Could be the beginning of the end for the madman.

When the first wikileaks came about, I read a piece about a Dagestani wedding attended by an American diplomat. These people don't feck around.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Rajma]

Genuinely hate the sight of him, such an uninspiring figure.

 

[harms]

Wow!
Hopefully they follow through on that threat. Could be the beginning of the end for the madman.

Dagestan is one of the few regions with a really strong horizontal communication (due to a clan-based societal system) and certainly enough fighting spirit (and weapons) to be able to actually do something. I wonder if any police or other enforcement agencies members are going to join the protesters, as almost every family has someone on the inside.

 

[Maroon Lucifer]

Genuinely hate the sight of him, such an uninspiring figure.

he kind of looks like Colin Ferguson, emotional vampire

 

[MTF]

When the first wikileaks came about, I read a piece about a Dagestani wedding attended by an American diplomat. These people don't feck around.

That was a hilarious cable, I read it a few months ago. It was William Burns, now CIA director and then Amb. to Russia, who wrote it.

 

[Rajma]

 

[Irwin99]

Nice fella, this Kirill.

It's amazing that this line still works on some people a thousand years on. STILL!!!

 

[dove]

Yes Olaf, keep doing the bare minimum to not anger, or God forbid humiliate our dear Putin. I can't remember a worse leadership in Europe than Olaf & Macron duo ever.

 

[VorZakone]

Yes Olaf, keep doing the bare minimum to not anger, or God forbid humiliate our dear Putin. I can't remember a worse leadership in Europe than Olaf & Macron duo ever.

Macron doesn't seem too bad in my opinion. Scholz however just comes across so uninspiring and passive.

 

[utdalltheway]

There have been plenty of times when marching bands played while troops were sent off to die. It’s what they do when trying to convince other people to do the dying for their leaders.

 

[nickm]

What is specific and clear thing the west will do if Putin uses nukes In Ukraine.

Wipe out all russian forces in Ukraine and the black sea I imagine. There'd be no reason not to.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

When was the last time France and Germany were factor and had courage to do something?

Ok, Germany one is obvious, but what about France? If I were president of any smaller European state (say for example my country Bosnia) I'd have my fair share of scepticism towards EU. Would look to be ally with UK and USA, perhaps to some extent Turkey and that's it.

 

[The Firestarter]

When was the last time France and Germany were factor and had courage to do something?

Ok, Germany one is obvious, but what about France? If I were president of any smaller European state (say for example my country Bosnia) I'd have my fair share of scepticism towards EU. Would look to be ally with UK and USA, perhaps to some extent Turkey and that's it.

For France when they bombed Ghadafi. After that they had some deployments in Mali but I am not very familiar with the specifics.

 

[Sir Matt]

This is pretty consistent with German policy. They've been willing to sacrifice others for their own financial gain or protection. Merkel would have done the same as Scholz is doing. Knowing that they were strengthening Russia's hand over themselves and Europe, they forged ahead with NS2 and other projects because it was financially beneficial, at the expense of security (theirs and others).

Merkel and Sarkozy's response to inviting Ukraine and Georgia to NATO in 2008 basically gave Putin the green light to march into Georgia since he knew they wouldn't respond.

 

[The Firestarter]

That was a hilarious cable, I read it a few months ago. It was William Burns, now CIA director and then Amb. to Russia, who wrote it.

I remember something like "The Rolls Royce is spacious but difficult to sit when there is an AK-47 in your feet"

 

[TheReligion]

Coward

When was the last time France and Germany were factor and had courage to do something?

Ok, Germany one is obvious, but what about France? If I were president of any smaller European state (say for example my country Bosnia) I'd have my fair share of scepticism towards EU. Would look to be ally with UK and USA, perhaps to some extent Turkey and that's it.

Fully understand that point of view

 

[frostbite]

What is specific and clear thing the west will do if Putin uses nukes In Ukraine.

It is a good thing they don't tell us because the West has plenty of weird people who would discuss it to death, no matter what it is. Some would say it is too much, some would say it is not enough and so on. The main idea is that Putin should not use nuclear arms (and nobody else is currently threatening the use of nuclear weapons, not even Kim).

 

[frostbite]

It's a very dangerous war. Someone may die.

Who voted for this guy???

 

[JuriM]

Basically, if even half of them would cba enough as the protesters in Iran do, instead to just first this is to save their own skin, then we wouldn't have this war.

 

[TMDaines]

There’s nothing odd about it. They’re still under Russian rule, you can’t trust those basic sociological surveys in situations like that. People don’t know who’s asking them questions and a lot of them won’t risk a potential imprisonment for a random someone asking them questions on the street.

The figures don’t surprise me though. You’d have similar chunks of indifference, apathy and ignorance anywhere in the world. It is exactly what the far right or have extremist politicians look to tap into anywhere.

 

[Cheimoon]

It's a very dangerous war. Someone may die.

Who voted for this guy???

He obviously means dangerous in the sense of the risk of further escalation. And obviously when voting for Scholz, no-one was considering his possible response to a future Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Scholz is obviously far behind the times psychologically on this issue, but no need to make stuff up.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

He such an egghead of a Chancellor. The Bundeswehr is about to receive those new Panther tanks in a much nearer future, so Germany will have to find a way to sell those Leopard 2s anyway.

Ok, Germany one is obvious, but what about France? If I were president of any smaller European state (say for example my country Bosnia) I'd have my fair share of scepticism towards EU. Would look to be ally with UK and USA, perhaps to some extent Turkey and that's it.

Macron's predecessor, François Hollande, had the balls to send troops when Mali was being overrun by jihadists. That was about the last time that I saw France doing something that had repercussions on geopolitics and yet it was the right thing to do because the other outcome would be hell. If the big players within the EU don't show more will to stand up for something, don't expect a bright future from it soon.

 

[NotThatSoph]

When was the last time France and Germany were factor and had courage to do something?

Ok, Germany one is obvious, but what about France? If I were president of any smaller European state (say for example my country Bosnia) I'd have my fair share of scepticism towards EU. Would look to be ally with UK and USA, perhaps to some extent Turkey and that's it.

Operation Barkhane is almost 10 years old, and is still not done. France is playing around in Chad, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, etc etc. Then you have the bombing of Libya, as already mentioned. Afghanistan, of course.

They get around. Courage isn't a word I'd use, however.

 

[stevoc]

What is specific and clear thing the west will do if Putin uses nukes In Ukraine.

There were a few articles last week with quotes where a retired US general speculated on that. In his opinion if Russia used a nuke in Ukraine all Russia's military apparatus and infrastructure in the Black sea, Crimea and possibly the rest of Ukraine could be removed.