Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Don't Kill Bill]

He obviously means dangerous in the sense of the risk of further escalation. And obviously when voting for Scholz, no-one was considering his possible response to a future Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Scholz is obviously far behind the times psychologically on this issue, but no need to make stuff up.

Doesn't he invite that through voicing his weakness. If you are too scared to send tanks don't send them, but don't go around telling everyone you are not doing it because you are too scared. That makes zero sense.

If you are scared by the nuke threat now then what will Russia ask for after it uses them to not use any more?

This weakness is a sickness being treated as a badge of honour and there is no excuse for it.

 

[frostbite]

He obviously means dangerous in the sense of the risk of further escalation. And obviously when voting for Scholz, no-one was considering his possible response to a future Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Scholz is obviously far behind the times psychologically on this issue, but no need to make stuff up.

I was making fun of Scholz, no need to "explain" things. Sure, we know that Scholz is afraid of escalation, in the past 7 months he told us many many times that he is afraid of escalation, now we all know that Scholz is afraid of escalation, and that Scholz will never ever do anything that might be interpreted as an escalation.

I just hope that Scholz called Putin again and explained it to him again in detail, for an hour or more, that he himself (Scholz) will never do anything to escalate, no matter what everyone else is doing. Who knows? ... perhaps Putin is not sure yet that Scholz will never ever do anything to escalate.


Here you are:

"Scholz has launched a diplomatic offensive, aiming to de-escalate tensions between Ukraine and Russia"

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-crisis-olaf-scholz-on-a-delicate-mission/a-60764575

February 13, 2022! He got on the escalation thing early!

 

[little.triangles]

In recent years? He was political all his live, just only started showing it in his lyrics at The Dark Side of the Moon. I suppose it was more socioeconomic commentary until The Wall, but from The Final Cut onwards, it's firmly political as well. I can usually get along with his general points, but I think I very rarely agree on anything specific.

That's exactly it! His words are often vaguely idealistic enough for you to think of him as sensible, but when things get specific you quickly realise he sees the world way too much in black and white.

That one hurt. Stoned me to my soul

There will be days like this!

 

[little.triangles]

It's amazing that this line still works on some people a thousand years on. STILL!!!

Unbelievable isn't it? All human progress is illusory. We are never too far away from descending into our baser selves, easily whipped into political or religious frenzy.

 

[frostbite]

‘A way to get rid of us’: Crimean Tatars decry Russia’s mobilisation

Members of ethnic group, which has largely opposed Russian rule since 2014, say they are being disproportionately targeted

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...f-us-crimean-tatars-decry-russia-mobilisation


It seems that with this mobilization Putin also hopes for a mini-genocide of various ethnicities inside Russia and Russian held territories, obviously ethnicities that he doesn't like. Two genocides in one, master strategist.

Obviously this is ironic, I hate Putin and all autocrats!

 

[Raoul]

 

[B20]

Lickspittle. Germany come out of all this with very little good will left in the bank. I'd prefer have Scandinavia form a faction with the baltics in the EU than pally up Germany at this point. They have been, and are, the zero solidarity wing in the EU at this stage. Him and macron.

 

[NotThatSoph]

Lickspittle. Germany come out of all this with very little good will left in the bank. I'd prefer have Scandinavia form a faction with the baltics in the EU than pally up Germany at this point. They have been, and are, the zero solidarity wing in the EU at this stage. Him and macron.

The population of the Baltic countries combined barely exceeds Denmark, it wouldn't be the most formidable faction.

 

[WPMUFC]

Jesus....

NSFW/NSFL - follow up tweet says he might not be dead.

 

[Rajma]

Iranian drones seem to be causing real problems for Ukraine, again, this is only possible due to a slow reaction from the west allowing them to regroup and find solutions.

 

[B20]

The population of the Baltic countries combined barely exceeds Denmark, it wouldn't be the most formidable faction.

I know. But they actually get it. Basically I feel we need to strengthen the block within the EU that is north of Germany (as opposed to just blaming it all on EU). Pity Norway aren't in and that Poland are presently fecking up their democracy.

 

[Real Name]

Basically, if even half of them would cba enough as the protesters in Iran do, instead to just first this is to save their own skin, then we wouldn't have this war.

While the war was far away and it didnt touch them they were ok, living their cosy lives, now mobilisation is real they realized there's a bloody war out there...

 

[stefan92]

Lickspittle. Germany come out of all this with very little good will left in the bank. I'd prefer have Scandinavia form a faction with the baltics in the EU than pally up Germany at this point. They have been, and are, the zero solidarity wing in the EU at this stage. Him and macron.

That's going way to far and you ignore that Scholz is acting absolutely in line with all other western countries. No one has delivered NATO standard tanks to Ukraine, not the US, not the UK, no one. Ukraine has only gotten ex Soviet tanks so far.

So this seems to be a red line for the whole NATO for some reason, whichever it might be. I think it's plausible that there is some secret deal/understanding with Russia to contain the war in Ukraine and I think what Scholz means is that breaking this deal would be a risk for NATO partners (for example Russia took a lot of care not to hit areas visited by Western politicians, to ensure that you need some kind of diplomatic understanding).

 

[Real Name]

How realistic is an option Russia will hit Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons?

 

[Revan]

I think the brief was the answer would be “immediate” and with “conventional weapons”, so if I were to guess they just passed Putin the info that a nuclear strike in Ukraine would mean automatic missile attacks on Russia from NATO forces

I would not expect strikes in Russia. I think it will likely mean (in order of possibility):

1) Cutting Russia from everything. Not more sanctions ‘but we buy your oil and gas as much as you sell us at any price’ but a bit like total sanctions on North Korea/Iran with sanctions in other countries (India/China) who still support Russia (or remain neutral).

2) NATO officially entering Ukraine, which means conventional strikes in Russian forces stationed in Ukraine (but not in Crimea).

I think the first one is still more likely cause the second could quickly escalate into full war. I also expect China to say to Russia that nuclear strikes means the end of China’s support. China’s economy is to a large extend based on global stability and they still cannot afford a war with the West (be it economical or military).

 

[Revan]

Macron doesn't seem too bad in my opinion. Scholz however just comes across so uninspiring and passive.

I think that France has sent even less weapons than Germany, despite having a significantly stronger army. Macron is all bark but no bite.

 

[TwoSheds]

While the war was far away and it didnt touch them they were ok, living their cosy lives, now mobilisation is real they realized there's a bloody war out there...

It's almost like Iran and Russia are 2 separate countries with 2 separate histories and sets of problems and that one government has been more effective at dispiriting and breaking up resistance movements than the other...

Here's a truth for you all, people the world over are fundamentally pretty similar, it is only differences of culture, education and circumstance that drive different actions.

 

[JuriM]

 

[nimic]

This is tragic, but shouldn't be in this thread unless some link to the war emerges.

 

[Real Name]

It's almost like Iran and Russia are 2 separate countries with 2 separate histories and sets of problems and that one government has been more effective at dispiriting and breaking up resistance movements than the other...

Here's a truth for you all, people the world over are fundamentally pretty similar, it is only differences of culture, education and circumstance that drive different actions.

What has Iran got to do with Russians fleeing the country? Or am I missing something?

 

[2cents]

I believe there are more Russians in Israel than there are people originating from any other country. I’m sure there are other reasons too.

From what I’ve read Russian-speakers in Israel are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine in this conflict. The main reasons Israel is top-toeing around proper support for Ukraine are the situation in Syria, where they have an understanding with Moscow that allows them free reign to target Iranian assets there, and probably a concern not to put Russian Jews in an awkward and potentially hazardous position.

 

[JuriM]

This is tragic, but shouldn't be in this thread unless some link to the war emerges.

Very easy to shift blame if it's as reported.

 

[calodo2003]

Apartment bombings 2.0?

 

[The Firestarter]

Apartment bombings 2.0?

If he still has his FSB badge

 

[harms]

A guy in Ryazan set himself on fire, apparently shouting that he didn’t want to go to Ukraine.

He’s alive.

Spoiler: “Graphic content”

 

[dove]

A guy in Ryazan set himself on fire, apparently shouting that he didn’t want to go to Ukraine.

He’s alive.

Spoiler: “Graphic content”

Damn

Do these things or protests in Dagestan get covered by traditional "non independent" Russian media?

 

[calodo2003]

A guy in Ryazan set himself on fire, apparently shouting that he didn’t want to go to Ukraine.

He’s alive.

Spoiler: “Graphic content”

Wow. Can't see him being such for very long unfortunately.

 

[harms]

Damn

Do these things or protests in Dagestan get covered by traditional "non independent" Russian media?

I’ve scrolled past Kommersant’s newsfeed and they’ve mentioned both the Dagestan protests and the shooting of the commissioner, although I really had to look for those. No news about the self-burning yet. It’s one of the last active Russian media still in Russia that at least tries to act like a media, even though they’re heavily censored. Can’t be bothered to look up RT.

 

[harms]

Wow. Can't see him being such for very long unfortunately.

There’s a video of him (allegedly) walking next to paramedics after the fact, but there are some conflicting reports on his current status.

 

[TwoSheds]

What has Iran got to do with Russians fleeing the country? Or am I missing something?

Well quite. The answer is "not all that much" and yet the Twitterati in here seem to want to equate them in a black Vs white sort of way that just isn't right.

Not that I don't salute the bravery of the Iranian protesters and fully support them, just saying the 2 situations are different, nuanced and have real people's lives at stake in different ways so false comparisons are unhelpful and daft.

 

[Real Name]

Well quite. The answer is "not all that much" and yet the Twitterati in here seem to want to equate them in a black Vs white sort of way that just isn't right.

Not that I don't salute the bravery of the Iranian protesters and fully support them, just saying the 2 situations are different, nuanced and have real people's lives at stake in different ways so false comparisons are unhelpful and daft.

Well I think you wanted to quote someone else cause I never made any comparisons to the situation in Iran. Maybe the tweet did, dont remember.

 

[Siorac]

A guy in Ryazan set himself on fire, apparently shouting that he didn’t want to go to Ukraine.

He’s alive.

Spoiler: “Graphic content”

I can't help but find it funny how calm the other people in the video looked.

"Oh look Grigory, there's a lad setting himself on fire. The youth get up to all sorts of things nowadays, don't they?"

 

[Dans]

I should imagine they are struggling to appreciate just what they are seeing in those 5 seconds. Also, what could they do in that time? Not a lot.

 

[TwoSheds]

Well I think you wanted to quote someone else cause I never made any comparisons to the situation in Iran. Maybe the tweet did, dont remember.

No, I just assumed given you were criticising the Russian population you might be one of those that was comparing and contrasting with Iran. I didn't put much effort into researching that as I suppose I was intending to comment more generally on how we should be cautious criticising, since there but for the grace of God go we. We in the west are not fundamentally different to the Russians, just live under vastly different circumstances.

 

[Real Name]

No, I just assumed given you were criticising the Russian population you might be one of those that was comparing and contrasting with Iran. I didn't put much effort into researching that as I suppose I was intending to comment more generally on how we should be cautious criticising, since there but for the grace of God go we. We in the west are not fundamentally different to the Russians, just live under vastly different circumstances.

I agree with that. I can understand it even. Until war knock on your door you act like it isnt there.

Its like people here were criticizing Ukrainians who fled the country in the 1st few weeks. I would ask those if they would go into war in the place of those people and they didnt answer yes. So i was careful with criticizing those people just as I will be in criticizing the Russians fleeing from now on.

 

[TwoSheds]

I agree with that. I can understand it even. Until war knock on your door you act like it isnt there.

Its like people here were criticizing Ukrainians who fled the country in the 1st few weeks. I would ask those if they would go into war in the place of those people and they didnt answer yes. So i was careful with criticizing those people just as I will be in criticizing the Russians fleeing from now on.

I definitely quoted the wrong person then, agree with all that

 

[Real Name]

I definitely quoted the wrong person then, agree with all that

You did but I altered my opinion a bit after your posts.

 

[stefan92]

I've seen more and more reports now that strong Ukrainian troops are operating north of Lyman. Seems to be more than just rumuors as this info can be found in Russian Telegram channels. The situation appears to be roughly similar to Izyum three weeks ago, Russians either have to leave now or risk getting encircled in Lyman.

While around Kherson still not much happens the northern front appears to collapse again...

 

[TMDaines]

I know. But they actually get it. Basically I feel we need to strengthen the block within the EU that is north of Germany (as opposed to just blaming it all on EU). Pity Norway aren't in and that Poland are presently fecking up their democracy.

Norway are in NATO though and have been for a long-time.

 

[Krakenzero]

I've seen more and more reports now that strong Ukrainian troops are operating north of Lyman. Seems to be more than just rumuors as this info can be found in Russian Telegram channels. The situation appears to be roughly similar to Izyum three weeks ago, Russians either have to leave now or risk getting encircled in Lyman.

While around Kherson still not much happens the northern front appears to collapse again...

IMHO it's not necessarily a good idea strategically speaking to liberate Kherson right away. In the current situation the RA is forced to mantain a wide front with all of its implications (a lot of forces required to defend it, a lot of administrators and burocracies that cause coordination/accountability problems, transportation and logistic issues, etc). Losing Kherson (and even Zaporizhzhia) would help Russia focus in the East + Crimea, which are supposed to be the achievable goals they have left. I think the UA knows this, and is happy to let Russia bleed in the whole southern front due to hubris.

Then again, I know nothing about these kind of conflicts, so I would appreciate if someone could add some other context/theory about Kherson.