Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Russian drones hitting Odesa city center (Deribasovskaya St). You can see the Odesa Opera House at 7 sec.

 


Damn. I remember seeing photos of very skinny Allied prisoners who were at the hands of Nazis or the Imperial Japanese Army in history books, but those were usually after at least a year in captivity. What the heck are they doing to POWs in Russia after 7 months or less?

Yeah. Better to send hundreds or more young men with a gun then risk a multi million euro trained pilot with a super expensive machine. They know either will result in nothing, but it's the less expensive deal to kill lots of citizens then expensive equipment. This is Russia.

Weird line of thought and yet unsurprising in the Russian context. Considering their age and their archaic design, I thought more Tu-95s would have been deployed after 7 months.
 
Damn. I remember seeing photos of very skinny Allied prisoners who were at the hands of Nazis or the Imperial Japanese Army in history books, but those were usually after at least a year in captivity. What the heck are they doing to POWs in Russia after 7 months or less?



Weird line of thought and yet unsurprising in the Russian context. Considering their age and their archaic design, I thought more Tu-95s would have been deployed after 7 months.
They might be olld, but they are part of the nuclear triad and are needed in that role. If it appears that Russia can't fight a nuclear war, they are in trouble.
 
They might be olld, but they are part of the nuclear triad and are needed in that role. If it appears that Russia can't fight a nuclear war, they are in trouble.
It's all hypothetical and kind of moot (because outcome is still largely similar), but I think in a case of a large nuclear exchange not a single Russian bomber would survive to deliver its payload to Western Europe or North America. I think virtually all Russian hits would be from their ground-based missiles. Technologically and operationally they just seem to be so far behind NATO when it comes to anything in the air or at sea.
 
It's all hypothetical and kind of moot (because outcome is still largely similar), but I think in a case of a large nuclear exchange not a single Russian bomber would survive to deliver its payload to Western Europe or North America. I think virtually all Russian hits would be from their ground-based missiles. Technologically and operationally they just seem to be so far behind NATO when it comes to anything in the air or at sea.
They are first strike weapons and while they likely would be destroyed, this is a game of numbers and probabilities. Fire enough dumb missiles and some will hit.
 
I'd agree with this. Brain drain is a "silent" weapon.


Dangerous game when you cannot be sure whether they leave because they are against the war/Putin, or simply because they don't want to go to war themselves but are fine with everything else.
 
The other reason Putin may be ready to just throw this ragtag bunch of drunk and disaffected into battle is to try and derail the counter offensive.

If these guys just mutiny / surrender en masse the Ukrainians may have 500,000 POW's suddenly appear on their doorstep.

Maybe the UN could setup some camps and deal with them, freeing up the Ukrainians to fight on.
 
The other reason Putin may be ready to just throw this ragtag bunch of drunk and disaffected into battle is to try and derail the counter offensive.

If these guys just mutiny / surrender en masse the Ukrainians may have 500,000 POW's suddenly appear on their doorstep.

Maybe the UN could setup some camps and deal with them, freeing up the Ukrainians to fight on.
Yeah that's not it.
 
TIL: despite Finland being seen as the victors of their war against the Soviet Union in 1939, they actually signed over 9% of their territory in the peace deal.
 
Not sure they would have the visa for onward travel to Germany so yeah nice idea but needs some logistics and thought behind it

Wasn’t this conversation specifically about Germany providing visas (or at least allowing entry) specifically to Russians?
It’s odd that you went for a patronising reply rather than engaging. None of us know how easy or difficult it will be in practice, but let’s leave off with the attitude. We all want the same thing.
 
Wasn’t this conversation specifically about Germany providing visas (or at least allowing entry) specifically to Russians?
It’s odd that you went for a patronising reply rather than engaging. None of us know how easy or difficult it will be in practice, but let’s leave off with the attitude. We all want the same thing.
How will they provide visas... as I say nice idea but logistics issues kind of matter because I don't think people can queue up for a visa in Moscow without being rounded up and sent to the front line

Processesing centres in Finland/ Turkey... not sure how practical it us

I agree that providing a route out is a good idea but that kind of involves an actual route ... which I'm sure without being patronising you can coherently explain to me
 
How will they provide visas... as I say nice idea but logistics issues kind of matter because I don't think people can queue up for a visa in Moscow without being rounded up and sent to the front line

Processesing centres in Finland/ Turkey... not sure how practical it us

I agree that providing a route out is a good idea but that kind of involves an actual route ... which I'm sure without being patronising you can coherently explain to me

If Germany really is intent on providing visas or some other kind of permit to travel, then I’d guess it would be through German embassies potentially worldwide, but in reality mostly in countries close to Russia. During the revolutions of 1989 a huge amount of East Germans made it to the West not through the direct east/west Germany border, but by ‘holidaying’ in Czechoslovakia and Hungary, getting visas there, and travelling overland via Austria. If it happens in this case then I think it will be the same principle, just different interim countries. So I’m sure it’s feasible logistically, the big question for me is whether Germany really is willing to facilitate this in large numbers. For me, that’s the potential problem rather than logistics. I’ll believe that Germany is serious when I actually see it happening rather than when the idea is first mooted.