Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Beans said:
That's good to hear, thanks.

Would you say he's refusing to deliver those more advanced system in an attempt to sweeten Russia in the hopes they will decide to supply energy in the future, or is there something else at play?
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I honestly have no idea, as we are not any longer talking about advanced or unadvanced technologies.

Ukraine already got the Panzerhaubitze 2000, which is the current equipment of the German artillery and one of the most advanced artillery systems in the world. Yet Scholz doesn't approve the delivery of Marder IFVs from storage (the Bundeswehr replaced them with the Boxer some years ago, so the Marder is far from being an advanced system).

Similarly confusing the months long discussion if Ukraine should get Gepard SPAAG (same as the Marder a phased out system in storage, meanwhile they got them and apparently were very happy with their performance in the current Kharkiv offensive), but it was quickly approved to deliver Iris-T SLM air defense systems as soon as possible (which will be end of the year and will mean that Ukraine is the first country to use that, even ahead of Germany).

In the early days of the war the situation looked much clearer as you could simply say that because of some pacifistic ideas Germany said that only "defensive weapons" would be delivered - like those anti-air/anti-tank missiles. This distinction was always stupid, but you could see some logic and understand that "ok that's stupid, but I see what they are doing there". But now? No IFVs, but MRAPs, which essentially are used for the same tasks, just are smaller systems? Mobile artillery and SPAAG to support operations, but no MBTs? It truly doesn't make sense (we would still have some old Leopard 1 MBTs lying around, even if we wouldn't deliver the currently used Leopard 2)
 
stefan92 said:
I honestly have no idea, as we are not any longer talking about advanced or unadvanced technologies.

Ukraine already got the Panzerhaubitze 2000, which is the current equipment of the German artillery and one of the most advanced artillery systems in the world. Yet Scholz doesn't approve the delivery of Marder IFVs from storage (the Bundeswehr replaced them with the Boxer some years ago, so the Marder is far from being an advanced system).

Similarly confusing the months long discussion if Ukraine should get Gepard SPAAG (same as the Marder a phased out system in storage, meanwhile they got them and apparently were very happy with their performance in the current Kharkiv offensive), but it was quickly approved to deliver Iris-T SLM air defense systems as soon as possible (which will be end of the year and will mean that Ukraine is the first country to use that, even ahead of Germany).

In the early days of the war the situation looked much clearer as you could simply say that because of some pacifistic ideas Germany said that only "defensive weapons" would be delivered - like those anti-air/anti-tank missiles. This distinction was always stupid, but you could see some logic and understand that "ok that's stupid, but I see what they are doing there". But now? No IFVs, but MRAPs, which essentially are used for the same tasks, just are smaller systems? Mobile artillery and SPAAG to support operations, but no MBTs? It truly doesn't make sense (we would still have some old Leopard 1 MBTs lying around, even if we wouldn't deliver the currently used Leopard 2)
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I understand the early caution, everyone started small to see how Russia responded.

But it doesn’t seem Russia is eager escalate, going after energy plants is the only thing that comes to mind. They were already torturing civilians and leveling cities, if they aren’t going to use WMDs I’m not sure what they can do beyond mobilization.

They’re getting shells from North Korea and bringing out museum piece tanks, how much more functioning equipment could they have?

At this point it might be best to try the Chinese method of “salami slicing”, taking a bit of territory back at a time so that any one offensive isn’t enough to drive Russia to feel the need for drastic action.

As angry as Ukrainians must be, it seems most of them have family or friends in Russia. If they push Russia out of Ukraine they would be great guarantees of Russia’s border, imho. Surely better than anyone from NATO having forces on that border.
 
Beans said:
If I were Ukrainian, I'd be very upset with Germany over that promise, there's no excuse for why those weapons haven't arrived.

Russia isn't sending energy, if Germany can't get some concessions out of Russia for not sending weapons, they might as well send them. As Russia feels their impact on the field, then they'll be motivated to offer energy in exchange for Germany not providing more weapons, if that's what they're after.
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If you were Ukrainian, and if you got upset with Germany, you'd be told that it is not helpful to be upset because this may anger Germans and then they will not help you.

I read this response in various posts here a few months ago. Apparently, Ukrainians should only say "thank you" to Germany, they are not allowed to be upset.
 
stefan92 said:
I honestly have no idea, as we are not any longer talking about advanced or unadvanced technologies.

Ukraine already got the Panzerhaubitze 2000, which is the current equipment of the German artillery and one of the most advanced artillery systems in the world. Yet Scholz doesn't approve the delivery of Marder IFVs from storage (the Bundeswehr replaced them with the Boxer some years ago, so the Marder is far from being an advanced system).

Similarly confusing the months long discussion if Ukraine should get Gepard SPAAG (same as the Marder a phased out system in storage, meanwhile they got them and apparently were very happy with their performance in the current Kharkiv offensive), but it was quickly approved to deliver Iris-T SLM air defense systems as soon as possible (which will be end of the year and will mean that Ukraine is the first country to use that, even ahead of Germany).

In the early days of the war the situation looked much clearer as you could simply say that because of some pacifistic ideas Germany said that only "defensive weapons" would be delivered - like those anti-air/anti-tank missiles. This distinction was always stupid, but you could see some logic and understand that "ok that's stupid, but I see what they are doing there". But now? No IFVs, but MRAPs, which essentially are used for the same tasks, just are smaller systems? Mobile artillery and SPAAG to support operations, but no MBTs? It truly doesn't make sense (we would still have some old Leopard 1 MBTs lying around, even if we wouldn't deliver the currently used Leopard 2)
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Here are two related articles:

https://mezha.media/en/2022/09/14/r...he-german-government-again-does-not-allow-it/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...al-multiple-rocket-launchers-kyiv-2022-09-15/

And another one from DW:

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-why-germany-must-send-tanks-to-ukraine-and-fast/a-63117612
 
frostbite said:
If you were Ukrainian, and if you got upset with Germany, you'd be told that it is not helpful to be upset because this may anger Germans and then they will not help you.

I read this response in various posts here a few months ago. Apparently, Ukrainians should only say "thank you" to Germany, they are not allowed to be upset.
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That sounds very German. "Please disconnect your emotions and reboot conversation."
 
Beans said:
That sounds very German. "Please disconnect your emotions and reboot conversation."
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Except that isn't what happened and what happened in this thread, it's just rhat frostbite hates Germans.

The big diplomatic issue at the time was that the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk was acting and talking like Germany wasn't a souvereign state and essentially ordered Germany to do this or send that. He was truly unbearable and on top of that is a Banderista, so essentially a Nazi and therefore a PR disaster for Ukraine in Germany.

In the meantime he got replaced and that's why we don't have this kind if discussion any more.
 
stefan92 said:
Except that isn't what happened and what happened in this thread, it's just rhat frostbite hates Germans.

The big diplomatic issue at the time was that the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk was acting and talking like Germany wasn't a souvereign state and essentially ordered Germany to do this or send that. He was truly unbearable and on top of that is a Banderista, so essentially a Nazi and therefore a PR disaster for Ukraine in Germany.

In the meantime he got replaced and that's why we don't have this kind if discussion any more.
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I can't believe Germany would let something small like that keep them from doing what was right. I mean I have no idea who any country has as ambassador to the US, but there's nothing any of them could say that's embarrassing enough to get the US to stop sending arms to Ukraine. Doesn't seem a proportional response.

Surely if Germany said, "We're happy to give you everything but this guy is embarrassing us can you get rid of him please?" you'd think Ukraine would have been happy to. I mean, they got rid of him one way or the other.

Obviously I'm on the outside looking in, but there was much talk about business ties between Germany and Russia. These high gas prices are going to made some industries in Germany unprofitable, I expect those industries pressed hard for peace talks.

After all, everyone was fine with doing essentially nothing in 2014, so it's not hard to imagine.
 
Beans said:
I can't believe Germany would let something small like that keep them from doing what was right. I mean I have no idea who any country has as ambassador to the US, but there's nothing any of them could say that's embarrassing enough to get the US to stop sending arms to Ukraine. Doesn't seem a proportional response.

Surely if Germany said, "We're happy to give you everything but this guy is embarrassing us can you get rid of him please?" you'd think Ukraine would have been happy to. I mean, they got rid of him one way or the other.

Obviously I'm on the outside looking in, but there was much talk about business ties between Germany and Russia. These high gas prices are going to made some industries in Germany unprofitable, I expect those industries pressed hard for peace talks.

After all, everyone was fine with doing essentially nothing in 2014, so it's not hard to imagine.
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True, I don't think that was the reason for what our government did or not. It just wasn't helpful to get the public opinion on Ukraine's side as he perfectly matches the "denazification" reasoning Putin gave for the war. Ukraine (up to the president) acting quite confrontational towards Germany, and while understandable it just wasn't smart.
 
Beans said:
I can't believe Germany would let something small like that keep them from doing what was right. I mean I have no idea who any country has as ambassador to the US, but there's nothing any of them could say that's embarrassing enough to get the US to stop sending arms to Ukraine. Doesn't seem a proportional response.

Surely if Germany said, "We're happy to give you everything but this guy is embarrassing us can you get rid of him please?" you'd think Ukraine would have been happy to. I mean, they got rid of him one way or the other.

Obviously I'm on the outside looking in, but there was much talk about business ties between Germany and Russia. These high gas prices are going to made some industries in Germany unprofitable, I expect those industries pressed hard for peace talks.

After all, everyone was fine with doing essentially nothing in 2014, so it's not hard to imagine.
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Melenyk took a Trumpish approach to public relations in Germany. He attempted to guilt/shame/insult the german population into doing whatever he thought was best, instead of laying out the reasons why it would make sense to do x,y or z.

However that was only a small factor. A much bigger factor is that 1/4 of the country essentially grew up under Russian rule (at least the people of an age to be politicians now), and for the other 3/4 that talking to Russia had worked for the longest time, including in reuniting germany without war or mayhem, which was especially noteworthy considering the absolute abyss that had brought about the seperation in the first place. People seriously understimate the effect all that still has on current german politics and population. Modern Germany isn't and never has been in a leading role in the "west" like the UK or the US have been. No matter how much Merkel fans like to potray it as such. It's not a kind of seperate entity like France either, it's been having to navigate the crossroads between east and west for the past 80 years to carve out it's spot in the world.
Add to that some thoroughly uninspiring leaders and a population tired of being told they have to pay for everyone and their momma in Europe and you begin to see some of the reasons behind this recent cowardice.
 
Bosnian_fan said:
I think main point he was making, or he should have made, is that Europe needs to grow a spine. It was very telling to me reading from several sources that it was US and British generals joining Ukrainian ones to plan counteroffensive. EU contributed nothing, it comes either as a lack of trust or lack of qualified cadre. In political and military sense, EU needs to become a factor, or euroscepticism will grow.
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Bear in mind when the war broke out the former British PM was in a very tough spot domestically with a series of scandals involving himself and his party with pressure on him to resign. So the invasion came at a very convenient time for Boris to distract the public from his and his party's behaviour by throwing his support behind Ukraine.

Would the same level of support that Ukraine have had from the UK been forthcoming if the war had broke out when Boris and the Tories were in a much more comfortable position?

I have my doubts personally.
 
What's the difference between a graveyard and a mass grave then? The picture I saw in Izyum of the "mass grave" seemed relatively respectful considering the press around it. Individually buried, wooden cross on each grave, supposedly most of them are thought to either be fallen Ukrainian soldiers, bombing victims or those who didn't receive adequate medical care (presumably not that uncommon in a warzone). I had assumed when I read the headline that they were victims of torture or something.

Is there some offence here that's been committed that I don't understand? Does it go against the Geneva convention or something?
 
TwoSheds said:
What's the difference between a graveyard and a mass grave then? The picture I saw in Izyum of the "mass grave" seemed relatively respectful considering the press around it. Individually buried, wooden cross on each grave, supposedly most of them are thought to either be fallen Ukrainian soldiers, bombing victims or those who didn't receive adequate medical care (presumably not that uncommon in a warzone). I had assumed when I read the headline that they were victims of torture or something.

Is there some offence here that's been committed that I don't understand? Does it go against the Geneva convention or something?
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That seems to be what they are trying now to understand, but I agree that a mass grave would not be likely to have individual crosses, suggesting individual graves. Seems more likely that the locals were burying their dead, the numbers obviously being far higher than normal thanks to the Russian invasion and occupation. But a mass grave where 100s are killed and then dumped in a big hole is not what this appears to be based on the photos I saw.
 
Although now I read the following:

"A larger grave bore a marker saying it contained the bodies of 17 Ukrainian soldiers."
 
Dans said:
Leaving the door open for gas supplies to eventually resume because in fact there really isn't a viable alternative that doesn't mean higher prices being the norm with potential devastating effects on German industry?
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Just read an article about how a fairly large brewery in Bavaria will run out of CO2 in 3 weeks.........no beer, no Germany. C02 manufacture requires gas.
 
Dans said:
Just read an article about how a fairly large brewery in Bavaria will run out of CO2 in 3 weeks.........no beer, no Germany. C02 manufacture requires gas.
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Isn't the CO2 in beer a result of the brewing process!?
 
Abizzz said:
Isn't the CO2 in beer a result of the brewing process!?
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" We need carbon dioxide in the filling process, among other things. Bottles or kegs are charged with CO2, which prevents oxygen from getting into the beer. Large amounts of CO2 are required in a brewery because of this process. Extra carbonic acid is only added to drinks such as soda or mineral water. "
 
Fcwu1uWaEAYMZ26


Time to start buying goods NOT made in China (it's very difficult, but we should all try).
 
Dans said:
" We need carbon dioxide in the filling process, among other things. Bottles or kegs are charged with CO2, which prevents oxygen from getting into the beer. Large amounts of CO2 are required in a brewery because of this process. Extra carbonic acid is only added to drinks such as soda or mineral water. "
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That makes sense. Thanks!
 
Abizzz said:
:confused:

My phone is korean with chips from taiwan. My screen is korean too, gpu taiwanese. It's the cheap shit that's chinese.
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Yeah no, a ton of chips are diced and packaged in China, and with semiconductor shortage at the moment, you'd be totally fecked.

True that Taiwan would be equally impactful
 
hellhunter said:
Say goodbye to any piece of technology, then
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Sony produces a lot in Vietnam now. Thailand is also a manufacturing center for technology. I said it would be difficult, but we should start at least with all the china junk we buy because we can and it's cheap.
 
Dans said:
" We need carbon dioxide in the filling process, among other things. Bottles or kegs are charged with CO2, which prevents oxygen from getting into the beer. Large amounts of CO2 are required in a brewery because of this process. Extra carbonic acid is only added to drinks such as soda or mineral water. "
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You could use nitrogen for filling. The only absolute need for CO2 is if you pasteurise your beer and have to regassify it. Make better beer and filter it properly, problem solved.
 
stevoc said:
Bear in mind when the war broke out the former British PM was in a very tough spot domestically with a series of scandals involving himself and his party with pressure on him to resign. So the invasion came at a very convenient time for Boris to distract the public from his and his party's behaviour by throwing his support behind Ukraine.

Would the same level of support that Ukraine have had from the UK been forthcoming if the war had broke out when Boris and the Tories were in a much more comfortable position?

I have my doubts personally.
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UK Russia relations are at an all time low. The UK have been on the ground training troops alongside the US for years.

Boris hammed it up, but in all honesty could have had any British PM in power (bar Corbyn) and the support would have been similar. If we were still in the EU Britain would be leading the European effort to support Ukraine and I’m convinced you’d see a more coordinated effort.
 
stefan92 said:
Except that isn't what happened and what happened in this thread, it's just rhat frostbite hates Germans.

The big diplomatic issue at the time was that the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk was acting and talking like Germany wasn't a souvereign state and essentially ordered Germany to do this or send that. He was truly unbearable and on top of that is a Banderista, so essentially a Nazi and therefore a PR disaster for Ukraine in Germany.

In the meantime he got replaced and that's why we don't have this kind if discussion any more.
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I would honestly recommend you to read more about Bandera and try to understand it from a Ukrainian POV before calling any Ukrainian a nazi for heroising his movement.
 


Girkin seems to think Ukraine might've offered Russia peace terms to withdraw to February 24th frontlines and staging a legitimate referendum in Crimea. Think Ukraine can do better. Once they get to Mariupol and get to show the world what Russia has done there, penny will drop in terms of arms supplies and views towards Crimea
 
ShoePolish said:


Girkin seems to think Ukraine might've offered Russia peace terms to withdraw to February 24th frontlines and staging a legitimate referendum in Crimea. Think Ukraine can do better. Once they get to Mariupol and get to show the world what Russia has done there, penny will drop in terms of arms supplies and views towards Crimea
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The ending of that translation - is it preparing the Russian people for a more widespread mobilisation and widespread conscription? "Only a complete military victory of the armed forces of the Russian Federation over the so called Ukraine can break this trend. For which alas self-mobilisation and collecting convicts from the bottom of the barrel is not enough", or am I reading too much into that?
 
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-announces-new-600-million-arms-package-ukraine-2022-09-15/

U.S. announces new $600 mln arms package for Ukraine

...

The package includes High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), night vision goggles, claymore mines, mine clearing equipment, 105mm artillery rounds and 155mm precision guided artillery rounds, the Pentagon said.

...

Washington has sent about $15.1 billion dollars in security assistance to the Kyiv government since Russia's invasion.
 
ShoePolish said:


Girkin seems to think Ukraine might've offered Russia peace terms to withdraw to February 24th frontlines and staging a legitimate referendum in Crimea. Think Ukraine can do better. Once they get to Mariupol and get to show the world what Russia has done there, penny will drop in terms of arms supplies and views towards Crimea
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It's truly fascinating that one of the most radical nationalists appears to be one of the very few Russian voices who still see the reality. I don't know if this offer he talks about was real, but his analysis of Russia's military (and diplomatic) problems has been on point all the time.
 
Erebus said:
The ending of that translation - is it preparing the Russian people for a more widespread mobilisation and widespread conscription? "Only a complete military victory of the armed forces of the Russian Federation over the so called Ukraine can break this trend. For which alas self-mobilisation and collecting convicts from the bottom of the barrel is not enough", or am I reading too much into that?
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Igor Girkin has been calling for official war and full mobilization basically since the war started. But he has been out of any actual power for years now, so whatever he says isn't official policy but far more hawkish. That might align again if Putin takes his view again, but he is in no way speaking for Putin.
 
stefan92 said:
It's truly fascinating that one of the most radical nationalists appears to be one of the very few Russian voices who still see the reality. I don't know if this offer he talks about was real, but his analysis of Russia's military (and diplomatic) problems has been on point all the time.
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Would probably be a more effective minister too instead of Shoigu.
 
stefan92 said:
Igor Girkin has been calling for official war and full mobilization basically since the war started. But he has been out of any actual power for years now, so whatever he says isn't official policy but far more hawkish. That might align again if Putin takes his view again, but he is in no way speaking for Putin.
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How is he still alive? Maybe he has serious influence with the GRU although no longer there (officially?)
 
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