Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ldier-exposes-rot-at-core-of-ukraine-invasion

‘I don’t see justice in this war’: Russian soldier exposes rot at core of Ukraine invasion


Exclusive: Pavel Filatyev has fled his homeland after publishing a 141-page account detailing his experiences on the frontline

‘They turned us into savages’: extract from Pavel Filatyev’s account

[......]


Sitting along the busy streets of Moscow for possibly the last time, he said he hoped this would all come to an end after popular protests like during the Vietnam war. But for now, he said, that seemed far off.

“I am just terrified of what happens next,” he said, imagining Russia fighting for total victory despite the terrible cost. “What will we pay for that? Who will be left in our country? ... For myself I said that this is a personal tragedy. Because what have we become? And how can it get any worse?”
 
the hea said:
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Heartwarming stuff.

It kinda makes it seem actually plausible that Ukrainian elite units are actually sabotaging stuff in Crimea if this is what they're facing.

It also makes me think that the whole invasion would have floundered from the start if the west had properly supported Ukraine from the start rather than assuming they'd be overrun :(
 
the hea said:
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Hopefully breaking point comes soon for their servicemen. Makes you hope, that if commanders really have fled Kherson and left soldiers to defend on their own, that it won't take much to make them surrender quickly without supervision and low morale.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Heartwarming stuff.

It kinda makes it seem actually plausible that Ukrainian elite units are actually sabotaging stuff in Crimea if this is what they're facing.

It also makes me think that the whole invasion would have floundered from the start if the west had properly supported Ukraine from the start rather than assuming they'd be overrun :(
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Zelensky's actions were pretty remarkable and hard to predict. He was an actor, who had been elected because he played a president on TV, facing a seemingly overwhelming force. Very few could have predicted he'd dig down, fight and make excellent decisions, when faced with a huge Russian convoy and active saboteurs making daily attempts on his life.

Countries also wouldn't have wanted to provide support alone, and he did some remarkable things that few could, in galvanising and inspiring cross-national support, in a world post-Afghanistan/ Iraq/ Syria/ Mali, where there was no public appetite to get involved in foreign disputes.

Very few could also have predicted how poor Russian tactics would be.

So it kind of makes sense that we didn't get involved sooner, even though in hindsight it is a huge shame that we didn't.
 
Russia’s war on Ukraine has reached a ‘strategic deadlock’ a senior presidential adviser has said. “Russian forces have achieved only minimal advances, and in some cases we have advanced, since last month,” Oleksiy Arestovych said in a video. “What we are seeing is a ‘strategic deadlock.’”
 
goalscholes said:
I note that it completely avoids Russia, which might explain their very relaxed attitude, but it might lead to worsening of the relationship with Belarus.
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This all depends on the winds , that's why it has a time frame. Obviously how the winds change is only vaguely predictable.
 
Frosty said:
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Would this be reason enough for Poland or the Baltic countries to invoke article 5?

Article 6

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:


  • on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
  • on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.
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Something will most likely happen tomorrow, just not sure how big.

 
I think if something seriously devastating was gonna happen tomorrow, we'd have heard by now from more authoritative Western sources.
 
Air defences active in Kerch, Crimea. It's where the bridge connecting with mainland Russia starts.


 
These targeted attacks are really heart-warming stuff. I’d genuinely love to know the quantity of Russian stockpiles of ammunition that have been hit recently. Explosions like that, especially seen from such a significant distance, would surely involve destroying tens of thousands (even hundreds of thousands, a million?) munitions. They are really successfully hitting the Russian army in the exact areas they can’t afford to be hit.
 
There seems to be a lot of things happening tonight.

The ammunition storage in Timonovo blowing up (mentioned above).
AA systems active over the Kerch bridge.
Big strike in Nova Kakhovka with at least ten loud explosions.
Explosion outside Staryj Oskol, Russia 100km from the Ukrainian border.
Reports of explosions at the Belbek airbase outside Sevastopol.
 
NicolaSacco said:
These targeted attacks are really heart-warming stuff. I’d genuinely love to know the quantity of Russian stockpiles of ammunition that have been hit recently. Explosions like that, especially seen from such a significant distance, would surely involve destroying tens of thousands (even hundreds of thousands, a million?) munitions. They are really successfully hitting the Russian army in the exact areas they can’t afford to be hit.
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That's a good question. Sometimes, I wonder if Russian troops would end up so depleted in ammo because of those attacks that the only options they have left is either desertion/retreat or a banzai charge.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
That's a good question. Sometimes, I wonder if Russian troops would end up so depleted in ammo because of those attacks that the only options they have left is either desertion/retreat or a banzai charge.
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Yeah, I’d agree. Difficult to project outcomes from my (admittedly ignorant) perspective, but can you realistically see some kind of charge of the light brigade scenario? It’s difficult to believe that your average Russian soldier is so invested in this war, on foreign territory, that they’ll lay down their life for it. I think we’re more likely to see a disorganised retreat which will be just about plausibly deniable, and not be admitted by the Kremlin.
 
Germany should allow the blocked Nord Stream 2 pipeline to begin pumping Russian natural gas so "people do not have to freeze in winter and that our industry does not suffer serious damage,” Wolfgang Kubicki, vice president of the German parliament, said Friday.

His comments prompted a fierce response from Kyiv, where Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said "addiction to Russian gas kills." The pipeline is completed, but Berlin in late February refused to allow it to go online in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kubicki, a member of Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s Free Democrats (FDP), called for activating the pipeline “as soon as possible” to fill gas storages ahead of winter.

He said there is “no sound reason not to open Nord Stream 2," because Germany is already getting gas through the older Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream pipeline. Getting "gas from Nord Stream 2 is no more immoral than from Nord Stream 1. It's just a different pipe," he said.
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https://www.politico.eu/article/vic...iament-calls-for-activation-of-nord-stream-2/
 
In February there was also an article on FSB polls.

While a minority of Ukrainians surveyed by the FSB said they would not defend Ukraine, this population was disproportionately concentrated in the south and east of the country.

Furthermore, among those who said they would not fight, around half indicated that in the event of war they would ‘adapt and survive’, suggesting that large parts of the population in the south and east of Ukraine would be open to complying with the occupation authorities if they could provide services.
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https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-through-russias-eyes
 
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