Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Lecland07 said:
Yes. Backing them into a corner is dangerous.


The invasion, at the moment, is nothing compared to what the Russian military is capable of doing. There are far too many consequences to pushing too hard at once.


Then you take into account energy supplies to Europe, which will cause chaos in those countries if they were shut off or reduced. It will wreck Europe. I don't think people realise how bad this would be.
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Again, you seem to be glossing over the important detail: they have literally invaded another sovereign state. And you're suggesting we should be careful of issuing "harsher sanctions" in case they escalate things further. As if invading another country isn't enough of a provocation.

There's a lot to learn from the 1930s. Anschluss, the Sudetenland, the Vienna awards. How far do the Russian tanks have to roll into Europe before you consider more serious economic sanctions to be justified?
 
KirkDuyt said:
The Dutch alt right is quite strongly in Russia's corner in this whole thing. Seeing as the alt right is a bit of a global cult, is it the same in other countries and if so, why? I just don't see the logic behind some of their beliefs.
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It's weird over here in the states. The right "knows" that Russia is in the wrong but also "knows" that to say so is to give a "win" to Biden, so they are tying themselves into all kinds of pretzels. Also, to go after Putin is to risk the wrath of Trump, which none of them want.
 
KirkDuyt said:
The Dutch alt right is quite strongly in Russia's corner in this whole thing. Seeing as the alt right is a bit of a global cult, is it the same in other countries and if so, why? I just don't see the logic behind some of their beliefs.
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Because it is mainly funded/driven by Russian Intelligence and its assets around the world.
 
Lecland07 said:
Yes. Backing them into a corner is dangerous.

The invasion, at the moment, is nothing compared to what the Russian military is capable of doing. There are far too many consequences to pushing too hard at once.

Then you take into account energy supplies to Europe, which will cause chaos in those countries if they were shut off or reduced. It will wreck Europe. I don't think people realise how bad this would be.
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Then why not take them seriously and discuss about their security situation and the consequences of NATO expansion to their border?
NATO could have accepted any country that wants to join but it was the same charter that rejected when Russia wanted to join.
 
Water Melon said:
This is not true at all. Coordinated efforts from NATO and EU can kill Russian economy in the matter of weeks. Russia's stock market is almost non-existent already, their savings are losing their value with each and every minute. The only way to stop Putin invading further is to hit him as hard as possible now, thus making him realize that more aggression will cost him even more. A slap on the wrist never worked and will never do. I have no doubt that UK, US and rest of EU and NATO countries will introduce new sanctions quite soon EVEN if Putin decides that the troops shall not go deeper.
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Killing Russian economy would mean EU practically committing suicide in the process. I'm sure most of the western states will not accept hyperinflation and lack of energy supply in the middle of the winter, without creating riots in every possible EU state out there.

Besides, China are opposing NATO expansion as well. Backed into a corner they can both ally against Western states economically which means good half of Europe defaulting at the spot(will rock hard USA too even if they decide to join the party).

EU put themselves into this position dissolving nuclear plants. We're so dependent on energy supply and again in the midst of pandemic situation, that's absolutely fantasy world to expect strict measures against Russia.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Killing Russian economy would mean EU practically committing suicide in the process. I'm sure most of the western states will not accept hyperinflation and lack of energy supply in the middle of the winter, without creating riots in every possible EU state out there.

Besides, China are opposing NATO expansion as well. Backed into a corner they can both ally against Western states economically which means good half of Europe defaulting at the spot(will rock hard USA too even if they decide to join the party).

EU put themselves into this position dissolving nuclear plants. We're so dependent on energy supply and again in the midst of pandemic situation, that's absolutely fantasy world to expect strict measures against Russia.
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It feels like this argument is being worn out. Is it really as simple as "Germany shouldn't have done that" or did the Germans have legit reasons?
 
Enigma_87 said:
Killing Russian economy would mean EU practically committing suicide in the process. I'm sure most of the western states will not accept hyperinflation and lack of energy supply in the middle of the winter, without creating riots in every possible EU state out there.

Besides, China are opposing NATO expansion as well. Backed into a corner they can both ally against Western states economically which means good half of Europe defaulting at the spot.

EU put themselves into this position dissolving nuclear plants. We're so dependent on energy supply and again in the midst of pandemic situation, that's absolutely fantasy world to expect strict measures against Russia.
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I can guarantee that measures aginst Russia will be strict. I can guarantee that it will cost them dozens of billions in the short-to-mid term. There will be no slap on the wrist as it was in 2014 when the Crimea occupation happened. Also, do you realize that China are under more severe sanctions that Russia has been so far? There is no way whatsoever China will support Russia financially. They did not do it the last time when Russia tried to sell natural gas to them on inflated prices, they are certainly not going to do it now.
 
Phil Jones Face said:
Again, you seem to be glossing over the important detail: they have literally invaded another sovereign state. And you're suggesting we should be careful of issuing "harsher sanctions" in case they escalate things further. As if invading another country isn't enough of a provocation.

There's a lot to learn from the 1930s. Anschluss, the Sudetenland, the Vienna awards. How far do the Russian tanks have to roll into Europe before you consider more serious economic sanctions to be justified?
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You've missed his point completely to be fair and it wasn't exactly a difficult one.

Bringing up the 1930s is odd, the world didn't have the interconnected economies that it does today.

EU states won't sacrifice it's own men to save Ukraine and it isn't going to plunge itself into severe economic crisis for it either.
 
Smores said:
You've missed his point completely to be fair and it wasn't exactly a difficult one.

Bringing up the 1930s is odd, the world didn't have the interconnected economies that it does today.

EU states won't sacrifice it's own men to save Ukraine and it isn't going to plunge itself into severe economic crisis for it either.
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EU states will not send their soldiers, but they will send their arms and weapons. Make no mistake about it.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Killing Russian economy would mean EU practically committing suicide in the process. I'm sure most of the western states will not accept hyperinflation and lack of energy supply in the middle of the winter, without creating riots in every possible EU state out there.

Besides, China are opposing NATO expansion as well. Backed into a corner they can both ally against Western states economically which means good half of Europe defaulting at the spot(will rock hard USA too even if they decide to join the party).

EU put themselves into this position dissolving nuclear plants. We're so dependent on energy supply and again in the midst of pandemic situation, that's absolutely fantasy world to expect strict measures against Russia.
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Nah, China just wants chaos. They don't care about NATO, cause it is far away. They also do not care about Russia. China cares only about China, and the sooner the Western leaders understand this, the better.

And sure as hell they are not going to sanction EU. Their economy is already in trouble cause of trade war with the US, they would not sanction EU for no reason at all.

Also, I do not see where does the hyperinflation comes from by sanctioning Russia. Higher energy prices, sure. In any case, it is a price that the EU must pay, partially because it is what it is, and partially because of its own stupidity (mostly the Germany's). Or should we wait till Russian tanks enter Poland before EU actually shows some teeth?
 
sun_tzu said:
Russia could probably quite quickly take all land up to the dnieper river ... at that point the logic would probably be to camp outside Kiev rather than engage in urban attrition warfare ...

That alone would probably be enough for the vast majority of people to flee kiev... and see the government of Ukraine operate from lviv

At that point they would have taken the 2nd biggest city and probably reduced the largest city to a non functioning fraction of what it is today... sure a ukraine still exists but one hardly recognisable

Dnipro would probably have the same treatment as kiev... at which point the largest 3 cities in ukraine would probably be Kharkiv, Odesa and Donesk - two of which would be effectively now part of Russia
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Do they have the capacity to do that? Ukraine is not a small country.
 
Smores said:
You've missed his point completely to be fair and it wasn't exactly a difficult one.

Bringing up the 1930s is odd, the world didn't have the interconnected economies that it does today.

EU states won't sacrifice it's own men to save Ukraine and it isn't going to plunge itself into severe economic crisis for it either.
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I haven't missed any point, thank you. He was stating that we shouldn't introduce more than these existing tepid sanctions, in case we back the bear into a corner.

My point is that Russian troops have already moved into another sovereign state. The bear is on the offensive, there is no corner it is being backed into. Therefore these watered down sanctions don't go far enough. There needs to be harsher economic sanctions to force Putins hand.

I wasn't for one second suggesting any EU blood should be shed at this stage.
 
Tucholsky said:
Some of them, the older ones who are out of use a longer time are already in the dismantling process.
And the problem is/was not only Merkel.
The energy policy of Germany is an almighty clusterf**k. Due to political reasons we messed it really up.
For both sides of the political spectrum it is highly ideological (No nuclear for the left. The right opposes green energy sometimes just out of spite). And then there are myriad political and economical interests.
There will be no solution to it without an ideological climbdown on both sides and massive investment.
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No, it's not only her. I mean I am an 80% SPD voter (last vote would have been Greens though, but I voted tactically for Scholz despite not being a fan of him), so I have to admit that they are stupid as feck when it comes to Russia.
(They should immediately kick Schröder out of the party, btw.)

Anyway, I was reading that there won't be a LNG terminal in Germany before 2026 - if (and that is a big if) no one goes to court against it.)
We have fecked that up totally. If this keeps up and a even rises a household will be paying 2000 € more per year just for gas.
Also good luck to the councils who are paying the energy bills for those on welfare :lol:

As for the Greens, we might need to go Nuclear again. Either that or we go beast mode on sun energy (meaning every fe**** roof) and on wind energy (meaning every f*****g hill).

But, at the end of the day North Stream 2 was Merkel's huge mistake.
 
Water Melon said:
I can guarantee that measures aginst Russia will be strict. I can guarantee that it will cost them dozens of billions in the short-to-mid term. There will be no slap on the wrist as it was in 2014 when the Crimea occupation happened. Also, do you realize that China are under more severe sanctions that Russia has been so far? There is no way whatsoever China will support Russia financially. They did not do it the last time when Russia tried to sell natural gas to them on inflated prices, they are certainly not going to do it now.
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I'm not sure if you factor in western mindset and that in Eastern states. Russian people are used to live in hardship as a majority and the richest 500 in Russia are like 0.001% of the population there.

On the other hand Western Europe has much more proportioned wealth distribution, compared to Russia. Initially measures after Crimea were supposed to be strict, yet they were slap on the wrist at the end of it. Then Europe was in a much better state than it is now economically.

You are really underestimating the effect if Russia shuts down the oil/gas supply to Europe. Do you think the regular German/Italian population would sit tight after they receive bills 10x bigger than last month and there will be shortage of energy supply across the whole country?

In a cold war I doubt the Russians will blink first compared to the western states which are accustomed to comfort they have been living in so far.
 
Fearless said:
Noticeably on the big set pieces.

Now we have a gibbering collection of organs that can't even look after his own borders.
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I don't think he was right for most big things, but he was right for China, and right for European not becoming dependent in Russia for energy.
 
Enigma_87 said:
I'm not sure if you factor in western mindset and that in Eastern states. Russian people are used to live in hardship as a majority and the richest 500 in Russia are like 0.001% of the population there.

On the other hand Western Europe has much more proportioned wealth distribution, compared to Russia. Initially measures after Crimea were supposed to be strict, yet they were slap on the wrist at the end of it. Then Europe was in a much better state than it is now economically.

You are really underestimating the effect if Russia shuts down the oil/gas supply to Europe. Do you think the regular German/Italian population would sit tight after they receive bills 10x bigger than last month and there will be shortage of energy supply across the whole country?

In a cold war I doubt the Russians will blink first compared to the western states which are accustomed to comfort they have been living in so far.
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That would send millions into bankrupcy. Including me - so hopefully we are not going there yet. (Well probably not me, but there would be no budget for even a fe***** holiday.)
 
KirkDuyt said:
The Dutch alt right is quite strongly in Russia's corner in this whole thing. Seeing as the alt right is a bit of a global cult, is it the same in other countries and if so, why? I just don't see the logic behind some of their beliefs.
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It is the same everywhere nowadays. Obviously you saw it under America with Trump and the same with many of the most ardent Brexiters in the UK. Generally, following the money trail will explain it at the most senior level.
 
Revan said:
Nah, China just wants chaos. They don't care about NATO, cause it is far away. They also do not care about Russia. China cares only about China, and the sooner the Western leaders understand this, the better.

And sure as hell they are not going to sanction EU. Their economy is already in trouble cause of trade war with the US, they would not sanction EU for no reason at all.

Also, I do not see where does the hyperinflation comes from by sanctioning Russia. Higher energy prices, sure. In any case, it is a price that the EU must pay, partially because it is what it is, and partially because of its own stupidity (mostly the Germany's). Or should we wait till Russian tanks enter Poland before EU actually shows some teeth?
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In a cold war there will be many interests that will be crossed paths with. It's not simple at all to draw the line in terms of strict economic sanctions as we live in a global world.

China also is a communist state and a great market of its own. People also don't really factor in how spoilt the western states and population is and how they will respond to hardships compared to Russia/China.

As for where hyperinflation comes:

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just the energy supply is huge effect for the continent. I mean, people just don't realize how bad this can turn out to be.

In an economic war everyone loses, not just Russia, China or EU. I mean everyone will be affected.

For the record I don't approve at all what Putin is doing but after Crimea I seriously doubt EU will sanction severe economical measures against them..
 
Enigma_87 said:
In a cold war there will be many interests that will be crossed paths with. It's not simple at all to draw the line in terms of strict economic sanctions as we live in a global world.

China also is a communist state and a great market of its own. People also don't really factor in how spoilt the western states and population is and how they will respond to hardships compared to Russia/China.

As for where hyperinflation comes:

26768.jpeg


just the energy supply is huge effect for the continent. I mean, people just don't realize how bad this can turn out to be.
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China would not enter a cold war between the West and Russia. Why they should do so when the wiser option is to do trade with both, leave the West and Russia weaken/destroy each other's economy, leaving China in a stronger position in rapport with both.

People are fooling themselves if they think that China likes Russia. China likes only China and looks after its own interests, not that of pseudo-allies.
 
TMDaines said:
It is the same everywhere nowadays. Obviously you saw it under America with Trump and the same with many of the most ardent Brexiters in the UK. Generally, following the money trail will explain it at the most senior level.
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Trump administration put very harsh sanctions against Russia, to be fair. GOP are evil, but they are not in Russia's pockets. And I do not think Trump was for that matter, although he benefited from Putin (winning the election), same as how Putin hoped to benefit from him (the US having as president a very chaotic character).
 
Revan said:
Trump administration put very harsh sanctions against Russia, to be fair. GOP are evil, but they are not in Russia's pockets. And I do not think Trump was for that matter, although he benefited from Putin (winning the election), same as how Putin hoped to benefit from him (the US having as president a very chaotic character).
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Agreed. And Putin harbours very ill feeling to the Dems falsely smearing Trump with Russia. With the current US president unable to remember his own name and Boris bogged down by birthday cake, is it any wonder Putin has gone into full invasion mode.
 
Revan said:
China would not enter a cold war between the West and Russia. Why they should do so when the wiser option is to do trade with both, leave the West and Russia weaken/destroy each other's economy, leaving China in a stronger position in rapport with both.
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Maybe, maybe not. They are cuddling with Russia for a long time. I've learned not to expect much from them especially after what they did with Alibaba too. East on its own is a big market.
UweBein said:
That would send millions into bankrupcy. Including me - so hopefully we are not going there yet. (Well probably not me, but there would be no budget for even a fe***** holiday.)
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Hope that too, especially given the time we live in. A war is the last thing we need.
 
christy87 said:
Well if Russian airlines are banned from EU airspace uefa will have no choice in the matter.
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Why, the top teams would just fly there with a private jet anyway, wouldn't they?
 
christy87 said:
Well if Russian airlines are banned from EU airspace uefa will have no choice in the matter.
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Russians aren’t getting banned from EU airspace. You’ll have Russia banning pretty much every line to Asia in retaliation which will be a total disaster.
 
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