Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Dumb hypothetical but if Putin is dying (as the mental online rumours say) what are the chances he escalates to a point where intervention is needed and what is that point? He drops chemical/biological or nuclear weapons? He carpet bombs civilians? Starts invading another nation?
 

Russia orders to forcibly mobilize up to 10k men in occupied territories until 18th of August (Russian telegram channels report with confirmations from the locals). This is just a pure genocide of Ukrainians by having them to go up against their own country, probably to be used as cannon fodder too.
 
Dumb hypothetical but if Putin is dying (as the mental online rumours say) what are the chances he escalates to a point where intervention is needed and what is that point? He drops chemical/biological or nuclear weapons? He carpet bombs civilians? Starts invading another nation?

What would he gain by doing any of these things if he's dying anyway and wouldn't be able to enjoy the spoils of victory ?
 
This is nonsense IMO. Ukraine is somewhat of a proxy war. Proxy wars have been (unfortunately) plenty. This won't escalate to WW3.

It very well could if NATO hadn't made a collective choice to not engage beyond arming the Ukrainians. Imagine if they set up a No Fly Zone earlier in the war and Putin reacted to it by escalating. Once Russia and NATO are firing at one another, that's two sides with most of the world's nukes at war.
 
One thing that this war has showed me is the US would mop the floor with this wanna be super power (Russia).

In boxing terms, it would not even go the distance, a easy little KO, no contest ;)
 
Good point, US involvement was supposed to be this red line, where were scared of Russia escalating. If they claim it’s happened and don’t respond proportionally, you’re giving your hand away.
Russia does not want any of the US smoke. They will embarrass Russia and Putin more then they already are.
 
Something big is on fire in Sevastopol.


The video was posted yesterday but it is still unclear what it is that was smoking.

This is another video posted yeasterday, of a Russian patrol ship deploying smoke countermeassures outside Sevastopol. Could of course be completely unrelated to the video above.
 
Amnesty International had a mare:


What's her actual criticism of the report contents though? Cause as far as I can tell, her comments don't mention what was wrong about the findings, just that she doesn't want to see them now. But she does hint at sources being bad, so I'm curious what the extent of that is, or if the Amnesty report does actually largerly stand but is just poorly timed (in her view).
 
I do find myself wondering how the west balances their own needs against those of Ukraine. Right now it looks like Russia wouldn’t be able to fight a war for another 2 or 3 years. Another 12 months of attritional war against a better equipped side, (combined with biting sanctions), and suddenly that 2-3 years could turn into a decade. Whatever western governments say in public I can’t believe this isn’t a conversation that’s being had behind the scenes.
 
Bellingcat where able to find and contact the guy from the infamous castration video. He of course denied it was him and blamed the Ukrainians.
 
Bellingcat where able to find and contact the guy from the infamous castration video. He of course denied it was him and blamed the Ukrainians.

How are Bellingcat so good? Western intel helping them?
 
How are Bellingcat so good? Western intel helping them?

I agree. I’m sure (well as sure as one can be given we don’t know the full details), that there is a symbiotic relationship between Western Intel and Bellingcat. I’d imagine at some level both have beneficial links with the other. Probably a lot of which is below the table and on an individual level, but a relationship none the less.
 
How are Bellingcat so good? Western intel helping them?
They usually explaines what methodes and techniques they use, like they did in this article. Tips from the public are of course an important part of what they do and I'm sure that it has happened that intelligence agencies have pointed them in the right direction.
One thing that is well known is that open source intelligence communities like Bellingcat allows western intelligence agencies to more openly speak about Russian intelligence operations, without revealing their own sources.