Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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"feel like this is objectively a very smartly played speech; he’s addressing Ukrainian people here — those whom are unsure about Russian occupation etc. "
There is nothing smartly played about the speech at all. I thought Prince Andrew had made the most self indulgent and ill advised speech this year but I will admit I was wrong.
Any Ukrainian who was concerned about Russian occupation will be twice as concerned post the speech, your hot take was/is wrong.
People in here decrying sanctions as nothing but weakness from the west but I'm pretty sure Trump got elected to overthrow such things as the Magnitsky act which was one of the things employed in the aftermath of Crimea.
Sanctions hit Russia hard, both the oligarchs and the common folk last time by all accounts. They might not prevent tanks rolling in and deaths immediately but it's enough to make them think twice about going further.
I'm happy (well, not happy, but you know what I mean) to be corrected on any of this but sanctions do work.
Sanctions hit Russia hard, both the oligarchs and the common folk last time by all accounts. They might not prevent tanks rolling in and deaths immediately but it's enough to make them think twice about going further.
I'm happy (well, not happy, but you know what I mean) to be corrected on any of this but sanctions do work.
The sanctions won’t stop them, that’s what’s most concerning, so not sure saying they work is correct. It just seems like they really, really don’t care.
The sanctions is often the start of a war though, even history suggest that. Iran, Cuba, sanctions leads to hardened national resolve. It's easier to radicalize a hungry nation.
I'd prefer the world just trade in peace, where everyone prosper. But alas, civilization thrives in war and trade, like a cycle that won't stop.
People want a 'stop' that keeps them from rolling into Ukraine and short of the US/UK/France putting it's nukes in play, there won't be one if Putin has decided it.
Sanctions are the long play. Keep them on long enough and perhaps the Russian people get fed up and start to rebel, perhaps the oligarchs do too, or the ones supposed to be really behind it all like Mogilevich and co have 'a word' with Vlad.
They have an effect, they work, they punish and they create conditions to make people desperate. Short of all out armed conflict it's the strongest weapon we've got against anyone. Just requires some serious questions regarding how much we want to punish ourselves whilst doing it. Sadly Russian money flows through London and elsewhere plus Russian gas does too so you have NATO and other allies dissenting over the idea of full blown sanctions knowing what it'll do to them as a result.
As you said though, if they (well, Putin) really don't care, then it matters not a jot.
They are indeed but they're preferable to a straight conflict. They're still a step towards it rather than a launching pad for war. There's still comeback from it. If what we hear from people about Russia, especially the younger population, not being particularly pleased with Putin, then sanctions hitting them where it hurts might force some sort of reaction internally in Russia. A long shot I know but still a shorter shot than going to war with them.
And we're predisposed to war, it's human nature to fight and protect your own clan, we've done that since we were cavemen. Peace is entirely unnatural, no matter how much we pretend to want it. There'll never be peace for as long as human beings exist, only periods of relative calm.
Putin is almost 70 years old, and assuming that he has little left in power, he could say goodbye by taking the Luhanks/Donetks oblasts, + Crimea + Abkhazia + South Ossetia (although I am not sure about the situation of these 2).
On his resume he would have added almost 100,000 square kilometers to Russian territory.
Surely much better than any sanction. It is said that they could be banned from the swift banking system, although I do not know if it is realistic or appropriate.
Yeah but he will be remembered as a pariah dictator who stole land from neighboring countries, which will likely be given back after he's gone anyway.
Unfortunately I don't think he cares much what the world thinks beyond his contribution to the Russian "empire".
After Putin, another dictator may arrive, will he be asked for the return of those territories? Someone will declare war on him to get a territory that apparently wants to be Russian?
In fact, surely the next one will set new goals. Belarus as soon as Lukashenko dies, or some piece of a Central Asian republic for some casus belli that they themselves have created
I don't think there will be another dictator there after Putin. There's too much pro-democracy sentiment brewing there, just as there is in Ukraine.
I'm sure I read somewhere once that Russians are generally always unhappy with whoever is in charge at any given time but they're always fearful that the next one is gonna be worse not better.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss n'all that.
Is anyone else really worried about this? Finding myself looking at the situation and genuinely worrying.
Like many situations, it could either flame out or lead to an even worse crisis drawing more countries in. Ultimately, the best outcome would be for Russia to have a difficult time establishing permanent control in Ukraine without the need for NATO to directly intervene or for NATO lands to be used to fuel insurgency, this would immediately raise costs in future conflicts where aggressors may want to take significant pieces of land from democratic countries.
Bits from the UNSC meeting:
Nothing will happen because the Security Council is designed to fail.
Nothing will happen because the Security Council is designed to fail.
On one level, definitely, Russia will veto any resolution. However, I listened to the last UNSC prior to this one and there has been a stark shift in the tone of messaging from several countries, including the African countries and China. Ultimately, most folks don't want to live in an uncertain world where might rules everything. There will be consequences and this move is definitely high-risk for Russia, if their ultimate gambit of establishing control of Ukraine fails then they will suffer enormously in terms of prestige and economics.
I'm curious what discussions in Helsinki and Stockholm are going on about NATO membership now and over the next few weeks.
Autocrat ranting about how he wants all the territory back, has taken more land today with his separatist buddies, despises that a country exists and has made multiple references to starting nuclear exchanges if the west was actively involved.
I feel like this doesn't end just at "recognising independent regions". The lust is on full display. Difference now is that an unhinged European autocrat has a nuclear arsenal.
I feel like this doesn't end just at "recognising independent regions". The lust is on full display. Difference now is that an unhinged European autocrat has a nuclear arsenal.
If Russia is successful in Ukraine I wouldn't be surprised if those two countries join NATO in short order. To be honest though, they are so integrated into NATO command structures already that they don't need to officially join NATO for them to support in any conflict against Russia. I don't think that Russia sees these countries as neutral anyways.
The only option, unfortunately, at this stage is to impose immediate sanctions that would hit the Russian economy really hard. Their stock market is already plummeting, while using military costs hell lot of money too. Putin has got himself into a really deep shit here. However, I can see some NATO member states being against of severe sancions which would mean that the aggressor has won.
It would make absolutely no sense whatsoever. An aggressor will not join NATO. This will be a no go from the member states. If they did want to join they would have to esolve all the conflicts that they have, whhich would mean withdrawing from Crimea, Abkhazia, Osetia etc.
I feel like today will be seen as the beginning of the war in a way and soon shit is going to kick off in Bosnia too with Serbia and Vučić and Dodik being Putin's puppets, in a similar way to Russia - Ukraine. So yeah that's where my head is at.
At the end of the day it all comes back to who wants it more.
Putin (right or wrong) wants it more he's willing to risk everything. The US/Nato, well.... are they ready and willing to go the whole 9 yard and risk WW3? Putin is banking on the US/NATO will sit aside. Can NATO Stopped Russia from invading Ukraine? Sure as hell they can, but the question is will they? At what price? And to what end?
China / Africa / SEA / Asia and the rest of the world will watch closely, and pays lip services of "restraint, cooperation, deescalations" while probably rubbing their hand in glee.
I predicted at the start of the pandemic that what comes after is war, Ukraine, Russia, Arch Duke, doesn't really matter. What matter is always economically.
I simply think there's too much bad blood in the world right now they're bound to duke it out WW2 style eventually.
Putin (right or wrong) wants it more he's willing to risk everything. The US/Nato, well.... are they ready and willing to go the whole 9 yard and risk WW3? Putin is banking on the US/NATO will sit aside. Can NATO Stopped Russia from invading Ukraine? Sure as hell they can, but the question is will they? At what price? And to what end?
China / Africa / SEA / Asia and the rest of the world will watch closely, and pays lip services of "restraint, cooperation, deescalations" while probably rubbing their hand in glee.
I predicted at the start of the pandemic that what comes after is war, Ukraine, Russia, Arch Duke, doesn't really matter. What matter is always economically.
I simply think there's too much bad blood in the world right now they're bound to duke it out WW2 style eventually.
Think you misread my point, I am not saying that Russia will join NATO, I am saying that Sweden and Finland may join NATO in response to the post I was quoting. Surely no one is that stupid to think that Russia will join NATO anytime soon after all that has happened
What do we have to do with that? You expect us to do what exactly? Invade Republika Srpska?
If that happens, it would be history repeating, in a bad way for Serbia. It's one thing for Russia, an elite military power with nukes, to be an aggressor, but Serbia and their allies in Bosnian territory would be easy pickings for any coalition and might even be an easy option for NATO to take to be seen as doing something apart from economic sanctions. Surely they aren't that stupid, surely?
Fully agree. I am sure US, UK and some other countries have predicted such a scenario so the question is whether they are serious about sanctions. If they are, it is game over for Putin. He and his buddy Lukashenko will feel the heat a lot and there will be no escape from that. In the twenty first century, when progress and technology rule, isolation means losing decades. Even in mid-term, Russia's military industry will be left so much behind that it won't be able to catch up in the next 40-50 years. If the US and EU are serious about retaliating financially, very dark times for the Russian economy are ahead.
I very much doubt NATO will get involved directly, or leap to the defence of a country that is not a member. Best case scenario, Russia limits operations to the occupied eastern regions. Worst case, they claim to come under Ukrainian attack in Donbas or Luhansk and use this as a mandate for a full invasion of Ukraine. The latter would be ugly and there would be bloodshed, but I still can't see NATO wanting to risk WW3 over it.
I mean there has literally been the same tensions over the same sort of crazy rhetorics being spouted between RS within Bosnia, and all the neighboring countries speaking openly about how they are doing all they can to make sure elections don't happen, etc etc.
Anyway it's just a feeling among quite a few I know that if Putin officially starts it, that it'll kick off between Srpska and Bosnia too. We'll see what happens. Hopefully nothing.
We have no military to speak of, the last generations that had mandatory military service are in their 40s. There is as much chance of us attacking Mars as there is of attacking Bosnia.
Srpska and Bosnia perhaps but do not expect us to get involved.
Vucic is a populist, his policy when coming to power was "we want to both join the eu and keep Kosovo". This clearly means that he has no actual political orientation, he is neither right nor left wing, he just says what he needs to in order to get into people's heads.
Most people over here support Russia in this conflict as they see it as the West getting their just desserts for supporting the succession of Kosovo.
However, we have lost enough wars in the 90s for ten lifetimes, so I am pretty sure that no one will act on this sentiment. Even if we wanted to, we dont have the means, having heavily demilitarized over the last two decades.
What Republika Srpska will do I cannot say, but they are not Serbia.
Fair enough. The overly simplified general feeling though is that RS and Dodik would never really do anything without the OK from Serbia and Serbia wouldn't do shit without the OK from Russia. Directly/indirectly, it's still the same issues and it's hard not to see parallels both between the 90's in those regions and between the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and the support is all connected.
Fair enough.
What will be interesting in this situation is that this will be the first time that Vucic will have to pick sides. His foreign policy so far has been based on keeping good relations with both the West and Russia/China and avoid giving support to either side in their conflicts.
This is the first time that he will had to choose and his first reaction to yesterday's shitstorm was to publicly complain that he is being pressured to put Russia under sanctions. He gave no suggestions on whether he will actually do it.
The way to get Putin is to get at his money, if the west can do that. Otherwise I think the west will do what they did when the Russians took over Crimea, which wasn’t a lot.
Very solid speech by M. Kimani.
The West should seize all cash, assets, and real estate owned or related to Russian oligarchs/officials, revoke visas and deport children and family members in the West attending schools, and generally make their lives miserable. Most of them use London, New York, Paris, Miami, and other cities to buy property as a means of money laundering.
I don't expect it to happen in the US, but I really can't see Boris and the UK doing anything of the sort.
So, no consequences then if the UK and the US don’t flex their muscles?
Otoh, at least TFG is not in power to give the Russian tanks the green light.
I'm not a very political person - but is there any sense of "American and British media" are making things up or making it worse than it is or something?