Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Rajma said:

If I talk I’m in a big trouble.
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When Putin makes a big push for peace talks, could mean he thinks they are in the strongest position they are going to get.

Watch out for all his western assets pushing his cause.
 
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Ukraine's position is crystal clear. There will be no peace agreement unless Russia pulls out of Donbass and Crimea. Ceasefire can only happen if the rushist decides to pull his troops back to pre Feb 24 territories. Long story short, no chance of the war stopping in the near future.
 
Very interesting (and long) read here from the Institute for the Study of War:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28

Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces pressed the ground assault on Severodonetsk and its environs, making limited gains.
  • Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.
  • Ukrainian forces began a counteroffensive near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border approximately 70 km to the northeast of Kherson City that may have crossed the Inhulets River.
  • Russia’s use of stored T-62 tanks in the southern axis indicates Russia’s continued materiel and force generation problems.
  • Ukrainian partisan activity continues to impose costs on Russian occupation forces in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.
 
Ukraine is starting to move in towards Kherson through the village of Davydiv Brid. It is slow progress due to the bad terrain for fighting in the South, but hopefully it's the start of something major.
 
spiriticon said:
Ukraine is starting to move in towards Kherson through the village of Davydiv Brid. It is slow progress due to the bad terrain for fighting in the South, but hopefully it's the start of something major.
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Can't imagine the Russians will be able to hold Kherson indefinitely with both the Ukrainians launcing a counteroffensive and the citizens randomly sabotaging them from within the city.
 
Raoul said:
Can't imagine the Russians will be able to hold Kherson indefinitely with both the Ukrainians launcing a counteroffensive and the citizens randomly sabotaging them from within the city.
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I have to admit the recent non-movement in that area had me a little concerned, especially upon hearing that they are building line after line of defence. I think a full frontal assault can't be done in that region until the MLRS systems arrive, but it's good to know that Ukraine are prodding the weak points.

IMO Russia is pushing all the best forces to the East. Their forces in the South gets all the backup crap from storage. It shouldn't be too hard to get the territory with the right equipment.
 
Water Melon said:
Ukraine's position is crystal clear. There will be no peace agreement unless Russia pulls out of Donbass and Crimea. Ceasefire can only happen if the rushist decides to pull his troops back to pre Feb 24 territories. Long story short, no chance of the war stopping in the near future.
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I was remiss not to offer sympathy to hear about the loss of your wifes cousins child.

I think your post to a link about Ukrainian toddlers being raped and dying as a result of those injuries was deleted because you titled it 'Orks'. I've looked back through the thread to comment on it and I couldn't find it anywhere.

I can't imagine anything more inhumane. The idea of raping children and babies is absolutely sick beyond belief, almost makes me want to both vomit and cry thinking about it. I really hope it is Ukranian propoganda and not true. If not the Russians must be ordering them to rape and kill citizens. It's beyond the pale.

All the best to you and your family and friends anyway pal.
 
spiriticon said:
I have to admit the recent non-movement in that area had me a little concerned, especially upon hearing that they are building line after line of defence. I think a full frontal assault can't be done in that region until the MLRS systems arrive, but it's good to know that Ukraine are prodding the weak points.

IMO Russia is pushing all the best forces to the East. Their forces in the South gets all the backup crap from storage. It shouldn't be too hard to get the territory with the right equipment.
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Yep. At some point, which will probably be after the MLRS and other heavy hardware arrive, the Ukrainian forces will have a go against enemy positions in the South while the best Russian forces will be kept busy in the East.

Just to reiterate a point I made the other day, the MLRS can be deployed about anywhere in the Kyiv Oblast and then they would hit anywhere inside occupied territories and even in the Black Sea if enemy ships have to be dealt with. If those are loaded with precision-guided missiles as well, watch out!
 
This guy, with his maps, provides another useful perspective, usually with daily updates:

 
Gehrman said:
I know. I shouldnt have quoted you. It was more a response to you and paxi's exchange.
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ThierryFabregas said:
I was remiss not to offer sympathy to hear about the loss of your wifes cousins child.

I think your post to a link about Ukrainian toddlers being raped and dying as a result of those injuries was deleted because you titled it 'Orks'. I've looked back through the thread to comment on it and I couldn't find it anywhere.

I can't imagine anything more inhumane. The idea of raping children and babies is absolutely sick beyond belief, almost makes me want to both vomit and cry thinking about it. I really hope it is Ukranian propoganda and not true. If not the Russians must be ordering them to rape and kill citizens. It's beyond the pale.

All the best to you and your family and friends anyway pal.
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It is inhumane. I will call these soldiers o-r-c-s and I will call Putin's policy Rushizm just like Zelenskyy does. Bucha turned in a Groznyy, people of Hostomel were not able to even approach their homes in ruins because in 2-3 km radius there was this smell of burnt and decaying bodies. Wearing masks did not help at all. The rushist troops that did all these atrocities in suburbs of Kyiv have been promoted to guard level. Make no mistake, Putin's wish is to erase Ukranians as a nation and turn Ukraine into a second rate Russian state. European leaders took it as just a small conflict initially, some sort of misunderstanding on Putin's behalf, because they never thought something like like this could ever happen in Europe again after WW II. Well, unfortunately it has happened, and if not for BoJo and Biden, we would see this fecking puppet Yanukovich being the president of Ukraine now. Huge support from the Baltic states, Poland, Czech Republic as well, as they know first hand how it feels to be under Russian oppression. France and Germany were the biggest hypocrites initally, thankfully, they are changing their tune and are starting to provide real economic and military support.
 
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Rams said:
I don’t think he deserves a banning. Yes, he may have views which we are factually wrong and he seems to be brainwashed. But he’s entitled to his opinions and has done nothing else wrong.
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There is opinion and there is this
Tell me where Putin has murdered people — (journalists don’t count)
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Mihai said:
There is opinion and there is this
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Having someone on the other side in a discussion is always more lively even if they have views that are quite despicable. But I guess that can always be extrapolated to other stuff in general too so I don't know.
 
Gehrman said:
Having someone on the other side in a discussion is always more lively even if they have views that are quite despicable. But I guess that can always be extrapolated to other stuff in general too so I don't know.
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Wonder how do you think about people defending the holocaust? Do they deserve getting heard to make the discussion 'lively'?
 
The Firestarter said:
Wonder how do you think about people defending the holocaust? Do they deserve getting heard to make the discussion 'lively'?
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Well that's what I meant when I said someone could always extrapolate it to something else. Currently there is a war going on and It's interesting to have a Russian who's pro the war in this thread. No I'm not really interesting in hearing the views of people defending the holocaust.
 
Gehrman said:
Well that's what I meant when I said someone could always extrapolate it to something else. Currently there is a war going on and It's interesting to have a Russian who's pro the war in this thread. No I'm not really interesting in hearing the views of people defending the holocaust.
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I don't think Paxi was necessarily pro-war. He just came across as a guy who wanted to defend Russia from what he considers fake news or hypocricy. If I'm correct he is from Russian descent himself.
 
VorZakone said:
I don't think Paxi was necessarily pro-war. He just came across as a guy who wanted to defend Russia from what he considers fake news or hypocricy. If I'm correct he is from Russian descent himself.
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He absolutely is pro war, he has stated multiple times that Ukraine cannot be left to make any choices on its own.
 
Gehrman said:
Well that's what I meant when I said someone could always extrapolate it to something else. Currently there is a war going on and It's interesting to have a Russian who's pro the war in this thread. No I'm not really interesting in hearing the views of people defending the holocaust.
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I get that from a "strategic empathy" point of view but in all honesty, he can feck off for belittling unspeakable war crimes committed by Russian soldiers. I'm against dehumanizing terms like "orcs" as well since war means old men talking and young men dying but when you're confronted with stories about 6 year olds being raped in front of their mothers and what bothers you the most is being compared to a fantasy creature, then something is clearly and fundamentally wrong with your moral compass. And we shouldn't reward that with any more attention than necessary.
 
Zehner said:
I get that from a "strategic empathy" point of view but in all honesty, he can feck off for belittling unspeakable war crimes committed by Russian soldiers. I'm against dehumanizing terms like "orcs" as well since war means old men talking and young men dying but when you're confronted with stories about 6 year olds being raped in front of their mothers and what bothers you the most is being compared to a fantasy creature, then something is clearly and fundamentally wrong with your moral compass. And we shouldn't reward that with any more attention than necessary.
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Very much this. Since enough Russian soldiers ave chosen the path of barbary and gave up on anything humane, they deserve to live with the tag for the rest of their lives.

On a different front, what would people make of this? Why did Joe have to say this? The MLRS can hit Russian territory in theory and depending on where it is deployed, but that decision will belong to Kyiv regardless. If the Ukrainian army wants to fire back and get rid of Russian artillery from across the border, who would blame them?

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GlastonSpur said:
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One of the questions for me is if Putin believes he’s really gaining territory he can hold, and the evidence suggests he does, how on earth he thinks he can fund the reconstruction. The answer must be more complex than simply saying he doesn’t care, it cannot be in his interests to have a part of the Russian federation with no viable housing/infrastructure etc.
 
Christ, thesun/mirror/star published some clickbait about Putin being dead and using a body double. Now all sorts are spreading it who don't realise
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Very much this. Since enough Russian soldiers ave chosen the path of barbary and gave up on anything humane, they deserve to live with the tag for the rest of their lives.

On a different front, what would people make of this? Why did Joe have to say this? The MLRS can hit Russian territory in theory and depending on where it is deployed, but that decision will belong to Kyiv regardless. If the Ukrainian army wants to fire back and get rid of Russian artillery from across the border, who would blame them?

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I took it to mean they'll not supply rockets that can hit deep Russia, i.e. the 300km+ ones. It doesn't make much sense otherwise since they border Russia.
 
NicolaSacco said:
One of the questions for me is if Putin believes he’s really gaining territory he can hold, and the evidence suggests he does, how on earth he thinks he can fund the reconstruction. The answer must be more complex than simply saying he doesn’t care, it cannot be in his interests to have a part of the Russian federation with no viable housing/infrastructure etc.
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He can't fund it, nor can he hold it. What we're seeing is the last gasp of might he can muster up. If that doesn't help him claim a few key Ukrainian towns in Donbas then there's really not much left for him go after, especially as it looks like the Ukrainians are counterattacking to reclaim areas outside of Kherson. I also don't think we have seen the full power of western weapons that have recently been provided to the Ukrainians.
 
Raoul said:
He can't fund it, nor can he hold it. What we're seeing is the last gasp of might he can muster up. If that doesn't help him claim a few key Ukrainian towns in Donbas then there's really not much left for him go after, especially as it looks like the Ukrainians are counterattacking to reclaim areas outside of Kherson. I also don't think we have seen the full power of western weapons that have recently been provided to the Ukrainians.
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I hope this errs on the side of realism rather than optimism.
 
Frosty said:
I hope this errs on the side of realism rather than optimism.
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Its a bit of both. He is in an existential struggle to claim some form of victory in this war, or else there's a pretty good chance it will undermine and destablize him from within the Russian security apparatus. He will throw everything he has to try to claim he's taken all of Donbas and that the special military operations has therefore been a success. Trouble is, he doesn't have the resources, morale, or firepower to hold it because the Ukrainians won't stop fighting (especially with all the weapons they're getting from the west) just because Putin thinks he's made his point. This will go on until the Russians have been completely expelled from Ukraine.
 
Simbo said:
I took it to mean they'll not supply rockets that can hit deep Russia, i.e. the 300km+ ones. It doesn't make much sense otherwise since they border Russia.
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The MLRS can fire missiles going as far as 500 km. It means they could reach anywhere inside occupied territories and even across the border if those machines are deployed inside the Kyiv region. I don't expect anyone to even think that Ukraine would strike Moscow, but they would definitely want to strike at Russian artillery pieces that are sitting just across the border and hindering Ukrainian counterattacks.
 
VorZakone said:
He did? I missed that then.
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To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again: and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself -- that was the ultimate subtlety: consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word 'doublethink' involved the use of doublethink.
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I'm pretty sure he's against the war but also thinks Ukraine deserve what they're getting or some similar incomprehensible strand of auto-fellatial logic. A bit like how they're committing war crimes because it's war but they're not committing war crimes because there's no proof (...that he's willing to accept as proof).
 
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