Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

RedDevilQuebecois said:
The MLRS can fire missiles going as far as 500 km. It means they could reach anywhere inside occupied territories and even across the border if those machines are deployed inside the Kyiv region. I don't expect anyone to even think that Ukraine would strike Moscow, but they would definitely want to strike at Russian artillery pieces that are sitting just across the border and hindering Ukrainian counterattacks.
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Yeh, so they are not going to supply the advanced 500km missiles, but they may still ship the MLRS with lower range munitions. We'll have to wait and see.
 
Paxi said:
I’m not brainwashed at all. You say it like Russia attacked some friendly nation.

Did Russia attack a friendly nation?
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They attacked a soverign nation for no rational or justifiable reason, killing many thousands of people. The only reason for this war is Putin's megalomania.

He can't be trusted which is why Russia should remain an International pariah until he is gone and replaced with something more trustworthy.
 
Paxi said:
So next time, without offending me, where are similarities between Russia as of todays and Nazi Germany. I’m suspect I’m going to wait for a long time.
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I'm thinking invading/occupying neighbouring countries on made up pretexts isn't a bad start when it comes to parallels.
 
GlastonSpur said:
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This is quite disturbing. They build their worldview as it suits them, no matter how absurd or ridiculous. If someone like this shithead follows Putin, what will be better? Something has to happen in Russia from the inside, but can it happen through the young Russians and economic pressure ? This is definitely a very long-term project.
 
War in Donbas region seem to be shifting and not in the sense majority of use here are hoping for or so it seems. On the other hand Ukrainians are counter attacking in Kherson region which is good and can help the situation in the east for Ukrainians. Seems so it will be a long war unfortunately.
 
@harms how much truth is there that Russia have opened up recruitment to the over 40's and are driving to reinforce their lost troops in the Ukraine by relaxing a lot of their training etc?
 
GazTheLegend said:
@harms how much truth is there that Russia have opened up recruitment to the over 40's and are driving to reinforce their lost troops in the Ukraine by relaxing a lot of their training etc?
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It’s true — Putin signed the decree a few days ago. But it’s probably not as significant as you’d think — it allows for people older than 40 to sign their first professional military contract. So you’re talking about people that haven’t served for at least 20 years (the age of conscription is 18) — I’m sure that those who have seriously considered career in the military don’t qualify for this.

As for the relaxed training — it’s been the case since the very beginning, people sign a contract and get transferred to Ukraine in less than a week.
 
Raoul said:
Thread

In summary - Orban is being a nuisance

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This was the bare minimum and it’s being branded by some as a win.

Actuallly it went like this.

The Parliament voted for an “immediate oil and gas embargo”.. the Commission said ok but in fact basically ignored the gas component (saying it takes time..) but at least they recommended a total oil ban. Now because of the Hungarian veto we only have a partial oil ban.
 
Simbo said:
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My guess is that they are looking to send the M270/M142 launch platforms and MLRS rockets for them but not ATACMS missiles. The normal MLRS rockets still have an range of up to 60km with good precision so still a very potent weapon system against the Russian artillery.
 
Pintu said:
This was the bare minimum and it’s being branded by some as a win.

Actuallly it went like this.

The Parliament voted for an “immediate oil and gas embargo”.. the Commission said ok but in fact basically ignored the gas component (saying it takes time..) but at least they recommended a total oil ban. Now because of the Hungarian veto we only have a partial oil ban.
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Disappointing but it’s better than nothing, and if the gas embargo actually happens then it’s pretty potent. I can’t believe Hungary imports *that* much Russian fuel as a proportion of the EU.
 
Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Disappointing but it’s better than nothing, and if the gas embargo actually happens then it’s pretty potent. I can’t believe Hungary imports *that* much Russian fuel as a proportion of the EU.
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Meanwhile India has increased their import of Russian oil so I have my doubts as to how much this will impact Putin.
 
shamans said:
Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.
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These events taken on a logic of their own as leaders (particularly a “strongman” like Putin) try to save face and avoid the potentially fatal consequences of being humiliated. Donbas and the land corridor is no real prize compared the economic, military and diplomatic damage incurred (and they would be inheriting a wasteland) but it is enough to claim victory of sorts and weaken Ukraine.
 
shamans said:
Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.
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His logic is pretty simple. Invade and take over Ukraine to make it a Russian proxy in the Belarus mold, so that the ideals of a stronger, democratic version of Ukraine never have a chance to flight along his borders, and eventually within Russia itself. Ultimately, Democracy is Putin's kryptonite, especially when espoused by neighborly intra-slavic means. He knows it will destroy his corrupt dictatorship if he doesn't do anything to stop it.
 
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shamans said:
Meanwhile India has increased their import of Russian oil so I have my doubts as to how much this will impact Putin.
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I guess it depends what India pays. There will always be a market for Russian fossil fuels, but the less available buyers the cheaper the price. If Russia could have simply transferred its oil from Europe to India at the same price it would have done so years ago.
 
MoskvaRed said:
These events taken on a logic of their own as leaders (particularly a “strongman” like Putin) try to save face and avoid the potentially fatal consequences of being humiliated. Donbas and the land corridor is no real prize compared the economic, military and diplomatic damage incurred (and they would be inheriting a wasteland) but it is enough to claim victory of sorts and weaken Ukraine.
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Saving face is important especially for people like Putin. This is why I'm a little worried with increased aggression towards Russia but of course it's not like there's a choice right now. I'm certain foreign affairs experts are smart enough to realize Putin needs a face saving here.

That said, the opposite also applies. I'm sure western powers want Putin to realize they won't back down and give him the pleasure of saving face because then anyone could hold them ransom in the future. It's a difficult game to play.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I guess it depends what India pays. There will always be a market for Russian fossil fuels, but the less available buyers the cheaper the price. If Russia could have simply transferred its oil from Europe to India at the same price it would have done so years ago.
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No it's definitely at a cheaper price. Russian oil right now is like 90 something a barrel when it's 110 in the "open" market. That's still enough to offset the impact of a sanction though. I don't think these sanctions are useless but I just wonder how effective they are.

I can't know for sure though. Some articles I read make it seem the sanctions have absolutely destroyed the economy and some sound like they're doing fine exporting the same stuff to alternate countries.
 
shamans said:
Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.
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He thought he could annexe the whole of Ukraine or at least the very oil and gas rich Black Sea. He didn't think sanctions would be this bad because Europe needs his oil and gas. He essentially gambled and lost. Getting a land bridge to the Crimea and increasing the land next to the black sea will increase Russia's economic output in terms of oil and gas production
 
shamans said:
No it's definitely at a cheaper price. Russian oil right now is like 90 something a barrel when it's 110 in the "open" market. That's still enough to offset the impact of a sanction though. I don't think these sanctions are useless but I just wonder how effective they are.

I can't know for sure though. Some articles I read make it seem the sanctions have absolutely destroyed the economy and some sound like they're doing fine exporting the same stuff to alternate countries.
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IIRC when Venezuela was sanctioned the measures took months, even years to make its full effect, and even then it was debatable if that was the main cause of the venezuelan economic crisis. Considering that, I wouldn't put too much hope in the sanctions as a gamechanger.

Nevertheless, if companies were selling oil at 110 a barrel with a cost of (let's say) 40 and now are selling it at 90 with likely higher costs (materials, logistics, less manpower available), that probably is gonna impact the economy overall. And an unstable economy tends to make leaderships and institutions unstable as well.
 
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Krakenzero said:
IIRC when Venezuela was sanctioned the measures took months, even years to make its full effect, and even then it was debatable if that was the main cause of the venezuelan economic crisis. Considering that, I wouldn't put too much hope in the sanctions as a gamechanger.

Nevertheless, if companies were selling oil at 110 a barrel with a cost of (let's say) 40 and now are selling it at 90 with likely higher costs (materials, logistics, less manpower available), that probably is gonna impact the economy overall. And an unstable economy tends to make leaderships and institutions unstable as well.
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Indeed. Ships are forced on longer voyages when carrying Urals crude from Russia's western ports to Asia rather than Europe, with a one-way journey to China apparently often taking about two months.
 
shamans said:
No it's definitely at a cheaper price. Russian oil right now is like 90 something a barrel when it's 110 in the "open" market. That's still enough to offset the impact of a sanction though. I don't think these sanctions are useless but I just wonder how effective they are.

I can't know for sure though. Some articles I read make it seem the sanctions have absolutely destroyed the economy and some sound like they're doing fine exporting the same stuff to alternate countries.
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I guess we’ll see the effects when world fossil fuel prices in general go down, as they will do at some point.
 
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