Ok. Thank you for that.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Ok. Thank you for that.
The point I was getting at is frostbites' blind hatred for all things German that he used the minority leader of the US senate as a stick to beat the German government with, while the German minority leader of the parliament and numerous other members of parliament were in Kyiv weeks ago.
Nevermind Annalena Baerbock, the actual minister of foreign affairs.
"One third of Russian ground combat forces"
The natives are restless ...
Russia’s Backyard Weighs Opportunities, Threats From Putin’s War:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...iet-states-are-worried-about-putin-s-invasion
Russia’s Backyard Weighs Opportunities, Threats From Putin’s War:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...iet-states-are-worried-about-putin-s-invasion
That would be around 20.000 deaths and 40.000 injured/PoW/defected? Insanely high.
Thinking of an end of the war scenario, wouldn't make more sense for the RA to try and secure their positions in the south and Lugansk/Donetsk, make the land connection to Crimea and hold until they can get them through peace agreements? That instead of wasting forces and equipment in the Kharkiv/Yzium area.
The 60k casualties (dead/wounded) also doesn't take into account the low morale most Russian troops must be facing - lied to by their government about Ukrainian fascists, many of their fellow troops dead or wounded, and nothing to show for themselves on the battlefield - all the while their country is getting hit hard by economic sanctions.
I don't think Ukraine is willing to trade land for peace. So Russia will be stuck indefinitely in Ukraine, with two thirds or more of its total ground combat forces tied up trying to hold occupied ground. Meanwhile, the natives are getting restless in several other areas of Russia's "sphere of influence" - and if any of them decide to break away from Russia, it's not clear that Russia will now be able to stop them.
Overall, Russia is now in a very bad strategic situation.
60k is a conservative estimate IMO. The Ukrainian estimate is much higher, and whilst this is likely an exaggeration, it's open to debate as to how much of an exaggeration.
What’s it called?
‘Winter on Fire.’
‘Let Someone Whack You’: Russian Troops Are Now Deliberately Wounding Themselves to Get Out of Putin’s War:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russi...-wounding-themselves-to-get-out-of-putins-war
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russi...-wounding-themselves-to-get-out-of-putins-war
Dude, a) thanks for your regular updates, they’re fascinating, and b) where do you get all this info?! I know the simple answer is ‘the internet’ but you seem to have a treasure trove of different pieces of info, are you getting them from somewhere that collated all these sources?
Don’t stop, by the way!
In USA, the "government" works in a very different way than in Germany (or most European countries).
In Germany, you elect the Parliament, and then the majority of the parliament elect the Government, which makes the decisions. So, if a decision of the Government does not pass, it probably means that the Government has lost support of the parliament and this may lead to new elections.
In USA, basically the President is independent of the Parliament, and it is the President that chooses "the government". The parliament does not choose the government, but the parliament passes the laws. And elections happen every two years for parts of the Parliament, and every four years for President. So these two (Parliament, Government) are not connected that much, and both have a lot of power. USA does not have a prime minister, and actually the President is something very different.
In USA, you can have a President from one Party, and the majority of the Parliament from the other Party, which is a situation that does not really make sense in Germany or Italy or most European countries.
So, even the minority leader has a lot of power in USA, while in Germany he practically has no power.
I largely agree with this post and it reflects how for example the Supreme Court has become so conservative despite having a Democrat as president for 10 of the last 14 years.
Anyways time to get back on topic and with that say that I do think Baerbock visiting Kyiv is more important than McConnell only apart from the fact that it's reassuring that both Democrats and Republicans are committing to the defense of Ukraine.
And in the UK, you vote for your local member of parliament. And the winning party decide who is to be their leader and he/she becomes the Prime Minister.
And the PM is a compulsive liar, doesn't give a sh1t about the people and breaks the law.
And the people think he is wonderful and let him get away with anything he likes because he is such a loveable rogue.
In my opinion, it is very important for Ukraine that McConnell visited Kyiv. Because Democrats might lose the House or the Senate next November. Since USA has already given Ukraine more than $40 billion, having the Congress on their side is far more important than having any other country on their side. The whole EU has given peanuts, compared to what USA has provided so far.
(And it was nice that he went there after Nancy Pelosi. )
Last edited:
Exactly. It’s vital that he shows support. I hate the guy and disagree with most of his politics but this could easily have been another culture wars scenario where the American right lined up against Biden. Getting this 40 billion through now, as you say before the midterms happen, is huge in terms of continuing Biden’s ability to support Ukraine for the next couple of years.
Assuming that bomb drops in free fall, i.e. with no momentum at the beginning of the drop, then it’s barely 50 meters above the tank. I wonder if they could hear it from that height. Must be terrifying.
I just get them from two different twitter feeds + the BBC + around four or five YouTube channels that I follow.
The maga world is against Ukraine already so its not that far off.
Probably like mosquito bites. One moment of not paying attention and it has already happened. Can't imagine it's not stressing the shit out of them.
Thanks
I believe the advantage of the parliament electing the government is that it there aren't situations like in the USA in which the government is almost unable to act because they are held hostage by the senate. So over here the opposition leader more of a sparrings partner for the government. I think this is actually quite an interesting role if you interpret it in a constructive manner and increase pressure on the government where you truly believe something is going wrong. Unfortunately, in practice most minority leaders interpret it in a very opportunistic way in which you criticize everything the government does to position yourself for the next election. As expected, Merz took it to another level by visiting Kyev. Hugely annoying.The UI on the drone says altitude is 150m so a little bit higher but still pretty close to the soldiers, the electrical engines wont make much noise though so I think it would be hard to hear it even at that low altitude. This is assuming the tank has its engine shut down because standing next to a tank with its engine running it would be impossible to hear it.
We haven’t given the 40 billion yet, it’s held up by one senator.
As I understand it he can only delay it until next week and the numbers in the senate seem to make its eventual progress inevitable. But yes it’s not rubber stamped yet.
Yep, one of the quirks of our exceptional system.
No, not only Scholz. Scholz is the chancellor of Germany, so lets take a look at a few people in similar positions. Mistakes are possible, I'm just googling.
- Joe Biden, president of the United States.
- Mario Draghi, prime minister of Italy.
- Mark Rutte, prime minister of the Netherlands.
- Alexander De Croo, prime minister of Belgium.
- Kyriakos Mitsotakis, prime minister of Greece.
- Jonas Gahr Støre, prime minister of Norway.
- Magdalena Andersson, prime minister of Sweden.
- Sanna Marin, prime minister of Finland.
- Micheál Martin, prime minister of Ireland.
And we can look at in from another perspective, who did visit from German politicians? Sorted in order of protocollary rank:
- President Frank-Walter Steinmeier - wasn't actually there, visit refused by Zelensky
- President of Parliament Bärbel Bas (formally ranking ahead of chancellor Scholz)
- Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock
- Heads of Parliamentary committees for defence (Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann), Europe (Anton Hofreiter) and foreign affairs (Michael Roth)
- Opposition leader Friedrich Merz
That’s getting close to the males who were conscripted by the nazis to defend Berlin, dregs of the barrel shit.
So about 10 days of casualties at the allegedly current rate?
Maybe the conscription thing and getting closer to the war will make the russian people more open to help end it. It's difficult to see a better scenario.
It is close, but not there yet. For the record, the Wehrmacht had ages 18 through 45 for service eligibility.
Regardless, it is a worrying trend. Germany had the Volkssturm, Britain had the British Home Guard, and Japan had the Kokumin Giyū Sentōtai (Volunteer Fighting Corps) in contexts that were justifiable for territorial defense under the specter of invasion. However, Russia is nowhere near under threat of having enemy tanks rolling their way towards Moscow soon. It is just silliness over silliness over silliness.
I hope @harms forgets to check his mail.