Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion



Earlier today a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 successfully attacked two Russian patrol boats.

The Russian Navy lost their main air defence asset (the Moskva) and now we start to see the effect of that. They can't operate safely any longer.
 
Interesting, Ukrainian successes can’t be denied in Russian propaganda. They are now pretending Putin is “losing intentionally”. The propaganda is reaching insane levels of absurdity…

 
Pintu said:
Interesting, Ukrainian successes can’t be denied in Russian propaganda. They are now pretending Putin is “losing intentionally”. The propaganda is reaching insane levels of absurdity…

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He has a very high dan in judo. Consequently, he knows how to lead an army.
 
Pintu said:
Interesting, Ukrainian successes can’t be denied in Russian propaganda. They are now pretending Putin is “losing intentionally”. The propaganda is reaching insane levels of absurdity…

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It's ironic how he claims Russia is exhausting the Ukrainian army, while in reality Russia is losing troops and material they can't replace. Meanwhile heavy supplies are just now slowly reaching the frontlines and will presumably only be available in numbers when Russia will already have lost their ability to futher attack.
 
Pintu said:
Interesting, Ukrainian successes can’t be denied in Russian propaganda. They are now pretending Putin is “losing intentionally”. The propaganda is reaching insane levels of absurdity…

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Ah the good old "throw tens of thousands of lives away to make the enemy think they're winning".
 
stefan92 said:


Earlier today a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 successfully attacked two Russian patrol boats.

The Russian Navy lost their main air defence asset (the Moskva) and now we start to see the effect of that. They can't operate safely any longer.
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That'll make 'em think twice about trying to send landing ships to anywhere on the Ukrainian coast.
 
Translation: "The Ukrainian army attacked a Russian staging point near Sulyhivka in Kharkov. Five armored vehicles (MT-LB, BMP and possible BTR variants) and at least 1 transport vehicle, and one T-72 tank were destroyed."

 
stefan92 said:


Earlier today a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 successfully attacked two Russian patrol boats.

The Russian Navy lost their main air defence asset (the Moskva) and now we start to see the effect of that. They can't operate safely any longer.
Click to expand...


The people onboard those boats must be extra dead. Can carry up 23 including both crew and marines.

According to wiki, 17 of those have been built, and only 3-4 operate in the Black Sea, so a rather big chunk of them taken out.
 
It's astonishing that Russia committed two-thirds of its entire ground combat strength at the start of its invasion of Ukraine.

When you consider that it has since had to pull in units from elsewhere, and also that some of its ground combat units need to stay in places like Kaliningrad, Transnistria and the disputed islands of the far east, it must mean that Russia - short of declaring war and a full mobilisation - has very little ground combat strength left to commit into Ukraine.
 
A week today it will be the 9 May parade in Moscow. Anyone care to predict what will unfold between now and then? It could of course just be more of the same attritional warfare followed by a grotesque speech by Putin (presumably by now on more pills than Elvis was in his final Vegas concerts) that the struggle against Nazism continues in 2022.
 
GlastonSpur said:
It's astonishing that Russia committed two-thirds of its entire ground combat strength at the start of its invasion of Ukraine.

When you consider that it has since had to pull in units from elsewhere, and also that some of its ground combat units need to stay in places like Kaliningrad, Transnistria and the disputed islands of the far east, it must mean that Russia - short of declaring war and a full mobilisation - has very little ground combat strength left to commit into Ukraine.
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It would also validate NATO's approach of flooding Ukraine with NATO quality weapons to play the long game and basically grind it out until Putin runs out of resources, all the while continuing to economically choke him from within. At that point, he will either be forced to negotiate or escalate (which would be tacit suicide for him, as any use of WMDs would turn the entire world against him).
 
Raoul said:
So basically you’re making up your own story that it’s made up because you’ve chosen not to believe the statement of the democratically elected Ukrainian government.
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WI_Red said:
No doubt the numbers are inflated, but to go from "the numbers are too high" to "the whole thing is made up" is a bit of a leap. I mean, guys might say they are lugging 12 inches around but just because it's actually 6 doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
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So, it turns out it was all made up. We're not talking about inflated numbers, we're talking about a fake story. Tarabalka was just a random pilot.
 
MoskvaRed said:
A week today it will be the 9 May parade in Moscow. Anyone care to predict what will unfold between now and then? It could of course just be more of the same attritional warfare followed by a grotesque speech by Putin (presumably by now on more pills than Elvis was in his final Vegas concerts) that the struggle against Nazism continues in 2022.
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If the past week or so since Putin rebooted his offensive in the east is any indication, not much will happen between now and then. Maybe, Putin intends to declare victory after having expunged Ukrainian fascists out of Mariupol.
 
MoskvaRed said:
A week today it will be the 9 May parade in Moscow. Anyone care to predict what will unfold between now and then? It could of course just be more of the same attritional warfare followed by a grotesque speech by Putin (presumably by now on more pills than Elvis was in his final Vegas concerts) that the struggle against Nazism continues in 2022.
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I think you nailed it: just be more of the same type of warfare, followed by a speech from Putin in which an alternate reality is painted: minimal Russian losses, major gains in east Ukraine, no mention of dead generals or the Moskva sinking, Mariupol under full control, well on course to establish a land corridor right across the south to Transnistria etc.

I don't think there will be any major breakthrough by Russian forces, because at this stage I don't think they have to capacity and will to achieve it. I'd reckon that 90% of the Russian troops just want to escape the hell they are in and go home.

What's more likely is some kind of spectacular/audacious attack by Ukraine on or just before May 9th to puncture the Russian balloon. Ideally this would be a strike on the May 9th parade itself, but I doubt that's possible.
 
A good thread from Weiss. Key points aside from those listed below are don’t expect large counter-offensives soon as they will need to scale them up carefully, but they will soon have in place more artillery with a longer range than the Russians’ which will allow them to shell positions better.

 
Meanwhile Oryx announces two milestones for Russian losses:

 
Rajma said:
Why? They have a history for doing it:

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Ffs. I swear this is what I wish Putin would be forced to go through in the streets of Den Haag.

golden_blunder said:
I assume this has been posted already

Russian state tv casually talking about destroying ireland and U.K. with underwater drone setting off nuclear explosion triggering 500m high tsunami

https://m.independent.ie/world-news...lates-nuclear-attack-on-ireland-41607244.html
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I swear those people can be braindead as hell. Can you seriously imagine how much shit would fly around if anyone on any of the main US news channels (even that shite called Fox News) was saying that about an enemy of the United States on live national television?
 
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