Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

MadMike said:
Russia is pretty much the defending nation in Crimea and casualty tolls will reverse dramatically if Ukraine were to stage an offensive there. They basically don't have enough offensive assets and if they started the Russian strategy of blitzing cities from afar, then Western public opinion and goodwill on which Ukraine so much depends will turn.

Their only hope is Russia ups and leaves, but that would essentially be an admission of defeat by Putin, not just in the war but in rolling back 8 years of his work in Ukraine. There is no way he can present that as win or even as a draw and I feel pretty sure that he will rather go isolationist than accept that.
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Crimea is gone, whether the officially cede it or not. But the rest of Ukraine is up for grabs and really not certain that Russia will be able to keep control of any of it in the next few weeks. If the counter attacks are successful there's a very real prospect that Russia will be forced to leave empty handed. Putin might not want to admit defeat but he may have no choice. If Ukraine can push their artillery back beyond range of the cities and they find a way to shoot cruise missiles down (some reports say Russia's stockpile is running low as it is), it's over for Russia.

In other words, if Russia don't make significant advances in the next couple of weeks it might not be up to Putin how this war ends.
 
Interesting thread that covers Russian army being made up of non-Russian ethnic people to make it more palatable:

 
11101 said:
In other words, if Russia don't make significant advances in the next couple of weeks it might not be up to Putin how this war ends.
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I think his army needs to be defeated (easy to say though). Next week or so will be crucial to tell us how likely that is, if Ukraine can hold out. If they can beat Russia and rout its army, then Putin isn't handwaving that one away.
 
nickm said:
I think his army needs to be defeated (easy to say though). Next week or so will be crucial to tell us how likely that is, if Ukraine can hold out. If they can beat Russia and rout its army, then Putin isn't handwaving that one away.
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Don't think that's realistic.

The best we can hope for is for UKR just needs to hold on and frustrated the Russians; increase the bodybags and deplete the hardware -- and wait for the sanctions to kick in and create domestic pressures and financial limitations.
 
Adisa said:
As a matter of principle, a sovereign nation will never agree to cede its rightful territory after it has been invaded. What's to stop it happening again?
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It has kind of already happened and Putin is using that example to justify a lot of things he has done.
 
What is thus denazification the prick is on about?

Was there even anything remotely dangerous to Russia in Ukraine?
 
sglowrider said:
Don't think that's realistic.
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There seem to be at least some successful counter attacks north of Kiyv. While I agree a total win isn't realistic for Ukraine, at least that Russian front might actually collapse, especially if Belarus stays reluctant to send their troops in.
 
stefan92 said:
There seem to be at least some successful counter attacks north of Kiyv. While I agree a total win isn't realistic for Ukraine, at least that Russian front might actually collapse, especially if Belarus stays reluctant to send their troops in.
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By all accounts, Belarus army is terrible and one of the worst in Europe. So I do not think Belarus sending troops in changes anything.

Unless Russia goes full WMD, I think they have already lost this war.
 
sun_tzu said:
presumably cruise missile strikes on whatever brings them over the border as soon as it does so if they have sufficient intel to track the movements?
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Those take many minutes to get from where they're fired to wherever they want to hit, so they're much better employed against fixed targets. Essentially they would have to know where and when the target is going to be in the future, rather than where it is now.
 
TMDaines said:
Just Putin’s war…

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Yep, was thinking the exact same thing. Imagining that it's just 'Putin's war' has always struck me as wishful, Pollyanna thinking. Sure, there will be intellectuals who will vehemently and eloquently oppose Putin, but they will be in the minority and easy to isolate.

Your average Russian will be captive to a propaganda machine that has been churning out abject nationalist drivel for the last twenty years. We shouldn't underestimate how immersive that is and how that attitude will become entrenched during a time when Russia is at war.
 
MTF said:
Those take many minutes to get from where they're fired to wherever they want to hit, so they're much better employed against fixed targets. Essentially they would have to know where and when the target is going to be in the future, rather than where it is now.
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unless you have a drone in the area giving life targeting info?
or as you say target the handover point
or more likley send in the rape squads and drop chemical weapons on kyiv till ukraine hand them over anyway as part of the denazification process
 
Revan said:
By all accounts, Belarus army is terrible and one of the worst in Europe. So I do not think Belarus sending troops in changes anything.

Unless Russia goes full WMD, I think they have already lost this war.
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They still have thermobarics as well.

The likeliest WMD scenario for Putin will be to batter Kyiv & Kharkiv as they have Mariupol, then instead of fighting a losing insurgency to take the full city, launch a false flag chemical attack that allows the Russians to walk in uncontested. That's the growing danger that needs to be mitigated by the Ukrainians and NATO need to be prepared on how to react when this happens.
 
They should say we have no problem negotiating with Russia but we want Putin to step down and agree to a new election for his replacement
 
McGrathsipan said:
What is thus denazification the prick is on about?

Was there even anything remotely dangerous to Russia in Ukraine?
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Democracy. It's like an evil Western virus that won't go away and it's infecting all the younger people in Russia who really just want more foie gras and oysters in their life, that's all.
 
golden_blunder said:
They should say we have no problem negotiating with Russia but we want Putin to step down and agree to a new election for his replacement
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If this continues for another few weeks, Ukraine's terms may well wind up.

- All Russian troops out of Ukraine
- Full restoration of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory (Donbas and Crimea included)
- Neutrality and nuclear disarmament of Russia
- Denazification of Russian politics
 
VorZakone said:
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It is not immediately clear whether the latest EU information derives from the same sources or Europe's own intelligence.
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sounds like america has just sent the EU report that they leaked to the press a few days ago?

think Biden and Xi are in talks around now and a few hours ago China sailed an aircraft carrier close to taiwan... so pretty clear message there that if biden wants china to stay out out of this one they expect the same in the future
 
LDUred said:
Yep, was thinking the exact same thing. Imagining that it's just 'Putin's war' has always struck me as wishful, Pollyanna thinking. Sure, there will be intellectuals who will vehemently and eloquently oppose Putin, but they will be in the minority and easy to isolate.

Your average Russian will be captive to a propaganda machine that has been churning out abject nationalist drivel for the last twenty years. We shouldn't underestimate how immersive that is and how that attitude will become entrenched during a time when Russia is at war.
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Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious -- Oscar Wilde
 
sun_tzu said:
sounds like america has just sent the EU report that they leaked to the press a few days ago?

think Biden and Xi are in talks around now and a few hours ago China sailed an aircraft carrier close to taiwan... so pretty clear message there that if biden wants china to stay out out of this one they expect the same in the future
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China's interest is that it doesn't want Putin to fall, because if he can then autocratic China may not be far behind. Not to dissimilar with how they don't want Kim's regime to fall in North Korea. Autocrats tend to support one another in this way.

That said, China also has far too much economic risk in its dealing with the west and can't estrange itself by propping up a losing Putin.
 
Raoul said:
If this continues for another few weeks, Ukraine's terms may well wind up.

- All Russian troops out of Ukraine
- Full restoration of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory (Donbas and Crimea included)
- Neutrality and nuclear disarmament of Russia
- Denazification of Russian politics
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No chance whatsoever that Russia will give up any of their nuclear weapons.
And I don't really understand that last point.
 
Raoul said:
They still have thermobarics as well.

The likeliest WMD scenario for Putin will be to batter Kyiv & Kharkiv as they have Mariupol, then instead of fighting a losing insurgency to take the full city, launch a false flag chemical attack that allows the Russians to walk in uncontested. That's the growing danger that needs to be mitigated by the Ukrainians and NATO need to be prepared on how to react when this happens.
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Thing is, Kyiv is 10 times as big as Mariupol, so battering Kyiv is gonna be far more difficult.
 
LDUred said:
Yep, was thinking the exact same thing. Imagining that it's just 'Putin's war' has always struck me as wishful, Pollyanna thinking. Sure, there will be intellectuals who will vehemently and eloquently oppose Putin, but they will be in the minority and easy to isolate.

Your average Russian will be captive to a propaganda machine that has been churning out abject nationalist drivel for the last twenty years. We shouldn't underestimate how immersive that is and how that attitude will become entrenched during a time when Russia is at war.
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I agree, to see younger people in Moscow sucked into it is a product partly of Putin's doing for reigniting tensions in the way he has. For some people it runs a fair bit deeper than just Putin and the last 20 years.

Some of the older generations grew up during the cold war and anti western mistrust is ingrained.

In fairness a poster did point out that for a period in the 90s, there did seem to be some reconciliation and the threat of the 'big bad west' did seem to be waning from the conscience of modern Russians.

But for many who are older, or live in more rural parts out east, this attitude isn't new and their support for Putin comes from wanting a strongman who will confront the west.
 
Revan said:
Thing is, Kyiv is 10 times as big as Mariupol, so battering Kyiv is gonna be far more difficult.
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Yes, I don't think they have the horses to take the city, which is why a chemical attack may not be out of the question. That would obviously only work if it looked like they were beginning to win throughout the rest of the country, which they clearly aren't at the moment.
 
Buster15 said:
No chance whatsoever that Russia will give up any of their nuclear weapons.
And I don't really understand that last point.
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It was tongue and cheek. It will obviously never happen, but don't be surprised that if the Russians continue to lose, that the Ukrainians may attempt to retake all of their territory the Russians are currently squatting on.
 
If China enters then THAAD+Patriot absolutely needs to happen. Even if the crew names are something like Johnyo Smithenko.
 
Buster15 said:
It is a one party state.
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Kinda. Putin is certainly making it that way by suppressing opposition. It's not like in China where there's literally no attempt at democracy, but in Russia democracy is becoming more and more of a facade over time. Not only with political opponents being persecuted but with ever harsher measures for political protestors and dissenting voices.

There are multiple parties in the Duma, although United Russia makes up 3/4 of the seats. The problem is that opposition is suppressed, in state media and elsewhere. This isn't especially new in Russia, but Putin has certainly strengthened his grip on power, and is surrounded by allies who can't and won't challenge him.
 
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