Thanks, appreciate the info. Although it's depressing info so if you could lie and say that the war is a few months away from being over that would help.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Nah, I see like a happy bloke and I hate it. We have to drag you down into the doomand gloom
That is why I am telling you that if the war ends in a few month, is most likely because Trump wins, stops supporting Ukraine, Russia wins, making life in Ukraine occupied territories pretty shitty, The rest of Ukraine left to recover from a war with a lost generation and having to repay debts with a destroyed economy with Putin emboldened and eying other countries in Europe in a weakened NATO because trump doesn't want to know anything else of NATO and yes, Trump having more resources that should be alocated for Ukraine to start a war in Iran that would retaliate bombing oil fields in all middle east raising oil price in unprecedented heights destroying the worlds economy causing a war between China and the West for supremacy of resources spawing the WWIII with AI drones swarms entering into your room taking pictures of your butt and posting it in the caf
Well....shit.
And we will be left asking why we didn't support Ukraine better with more weapons and even manpower, air support, no-fly zones, etc, to prevent all this.
This would actually be a scenario where other countries could join the war with troops on the ground. If Trump turns off aid to Ukraine, and has the intention of reducing US presence and support in Europe, other countries might see this as their best chance to take out Russia. Specially Balkan countries/Poland. If US is no longer seen as a trustworthy ally in defense of Russia/Article 5 scenario - then why let Russia off the hook at their weakest stage, to rebuild their forces? Question wold be ofcourse about political will in those countries, many (like Germany) would prefer peace on Russias terms and slowly go back to trade. And is there enough military strength in Europe without US support, to make a significant impact in the war. That I do not know.
Yes, Russia is on the frontfoot in multiple places along the front line and gradually taking territory every day. Although sometimes we are just talking street by street or building by building. Eventually though it always leads to a larger (but still small relative to whole of Ukraine) gain and Ukrainians having to retreat. Whether that translates into Russia being in the victory seat currently depends on your perspective, as they are also taking their biggest losses in the war in the last 10 days (and that trend is holding for a few months now).
Obviously Russia cannot sustain this to take the whole Ukraine at this pace, but they could a) Pause the offensive b) Make a significant breakthrough in the Ukrainian lines c) Benefit from a change in political support for Ukraine, d) Completely collapse as their economy crashes and internal turmoil and troop resentment boils over. Hard to make an accurate prediction at this point.
Look how the Caf has changed you!
They are on the front foot as in they are heavily assaulting in many areas and "taking territory". But, whenever you hear the media and everyone talk about territorial gains, understand the size of what they are taking rounds down to zero in the scheme of things. They occupy 18.30% of Ukraine today, compared to 18.26% a month ago, despite all their recent hype and efforts, 18.00% at the start of the year for context. They are being held at all the major focal points, its mainly fields they are "taking" so that bloggers can celebrate a few extra red pixels on a map, if they zoom in enough. It doesn't matter much, when Ukraine takes it back, they'll take it all at once.
It seems like Russia is making an extra effort lately to try and project strength. Possibly for the elections in the US, Georgia & Moldova, as their various puppets use fear of Russia to their advantage. All indicators though are that they are being massacred and they are not going to take any significant objectives this year. Their results are not remotely worth the cost. Their main current objective to take all of Donetsk is laughable, it would take them years at the current rate of progress even if they could keep it up, which they can't. They are only getting weaker relative to Ukraine. The North Korea thing is a massive sign of weakness.
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Happens once a year, hopefully doesn't go worse
Thanks guys for the input. 
I am reading that Ukraine are aiming a campaign at the NK soldiers promising them three hot meals and a place to stay if they defect
Might not be super effective, considering how NK punish family members for transgressions, but I do love the idea.
I wonder if they can even effectively communicate that idea in a way, where it's believable to those soldiers. The Russians could easily spin it as a trap, I would think.I am reading that Ukraine are aiming a campaign at the NK soldiers promising them three hot meals and a place to stay if they defect
Might not be super effective, considering how NK punish family members for transgressions, but I do love the idea.
Yeah, that’s a good question. But morale isn’t great among Russians and they don’t seem to know how to ensure cohesion between the two forces, so it’s an interesting circumstance that’s been set up. We’ll see how it plays out. Apparently a few Koreans have already defected, though I think that’s before this campaign.
Oh god you’re literally unironically repeating Russian propaganda here.
Why do you think NATO expansion is an act of provocation? It’s literally the exact opposite. Russia attacked Ukraine which triggered Finland and Sweden applying to join.
And that’s just a thought terminating cliche.
It’s got nothing to do with propaganda. It’s logical.
It’s provocative to Russia. States, just like people, react to things.
I doubt Putin factored that in and it probably makes his position within Russia more precarious than it was before, which in turn makes him more dangerous than before. The best outcome is that he’s taken out from within.
So pray tell, prior to the Russian annexation of Crimea, how many Ukrainians even thought about the country joining NATO?
Can you name a single politician from either side who proposed Ukraine should join NATO? Or even the slightest whiff of it?
Do you not believe that sovereign nations have the right to do what they want and a third party unaffected doesn't have the right to intervene?
Do you believe Soloman islands signing a military pact with China is a "provocation" and that the United States therefore has the right to invade?
I don't wish for civilians to be harmed usually but this is pretty funny and harmless at the same time.
Ukrainian forces have not yet engaged in combat with North Korean soldiers, military says
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraini...oldiers-or-taken-them-prisoner-military-says/
I’ve no idea.
Well we can start with George W Bush, who back in 2008 pressed NATO into making a declaration that Ukraine would be invited to join.
Yes…in a general sense. Nations, just like people, have the right to pursue whatever course they want. However…other nations, just like other people, will react to the exercise of those rights.
Your reply also contains this flawed assertion or assumption that Russia is some unaffected third party. In any case this kind of debate can get into the territory of what ‘rights’ actually mean in practical terms, but I’ll pose an alternative scenario to yours below…
Imagine for a moment that America pressed Taiwan to join NATO, do you think China would react to that? Would it be wise for America to pursue such a policy?
Regarding the latter scenario, it’s a nonsensical claim because it’s so out there and impossible for a variety of different reasons.
But there’s been talks of a nato style East Asia agreement for a while and last I checked china hasn’t gone berserk.
You are completely confusing things with Ukraine. Nobody in Ukraine wanted to, had any intentions to, or even thought about joining nato in 2013.
We wanted economic integration with the EU. That is what putin threw his toys out the pram about and that’s what triggered the crimea invasion.
All the bullshit about nato was excuses made by Russia after the fact.
It’s a scenario, not a claim, and a rhetorical one at that because we all know what the answer is.
Does it involve America?
I never claimed they did.
There are degrees of ‘acceptability’ (for want of a better term) in the exercise of rights, and if EU membership was all that was in play then Russia wouldn’t and shouldn’t have a leg to stand on.
Don’t mistake my description of events as some kind of backing for Russia or Putin btw. I think the former has a rotten history and Putin’s a sinister authoritarian tyrant.
Russian deficit set to reach 3.5 trillion roubles ($36b USD) for 2024. Their rainy day fund which reportedly currently holds $55bil of liquid assets (gold & CNY), is not long for this world.
Tick tock.
Tick tock.
I guess they've finally figured out what the NK soldiers will be doing - last week they had no idea why they were there
They really do not want to have to properly address this situation.
Meanwhile, Russia strengthens ties with Iran
https://www.reuters.com/world/russi...-will-include-defence-lavrov-says-2024-10-31/
And North Korea performs their most advanced ICBM missile test launch - possibly improved with help of Russia:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...torm-over-troop-deployment-russia-2024-10-31/
This is a very good video. Goes over some simple truths and nuances that so many people seem oblivious or ignorant to.
Quality video, and more or less echoes my own take on things. If the US and NATO continue to support Ukraine, it will eventually reach a tipping point where Putin runs out of either competent troops capable of holding his existing gains and/or the equipment necessary to continue fighting. The fact that he is having to resort to importing North Koreans from the other side of the world speaks volumes about how desperate he must be to keep sufficient troops on the front lines.
I admire your guys’ positivity. I have to say, the last couple of months have been pretty grim and the articles like this one fit pretty well into my understanding of how the war is going. I guess there’s always an option of expanding the mobilization even further… and I’m not even talking about what’s gonna happen if Trump gets elected, let’s just all collectively hope that he doesn’t.
I wouldn't even characterise it as "positivity", it's just more of the same delusional insanity that has led to the functional destruction of Ukraine. Thankfully more and more Ukrainians are starting to realise they're being strung along (or as I've been terming it, "sacrificed"):
A volunteer helping to evacuate people near Pokrovsk, an eastern town that Russian troops are closing in on, said the West just wanted to weaken Russia, not help Ukraine win.
“Soon, there may be no one left even to use the weapons they give us,” said the volunteer, Yevhen Tuzov, “because all our Western partners want is for us to fight until the last Ukrainian.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-russia-war.html
Speaking of delusion, here's my old pal Frank Ledwidge's latest piece. I've mentioned him before on here, he's from the same stable as Ben Hodges, Philips O'Brien et al. Think tank "experts" who always get interviewed by the Western media for their "insight". Frank has spent the last 33 months telling everyone from CNN to BBC to France24 to the Telegraph to the Guardian that Ukraine will win this war.
And now?
https://theconversation.com/ukraine...kyiv-plan-for-a-secure-post-war-future-242010
Some snippets:
"Ukraine cannot defeat Russia – the best the west can do is help Kyiv plan for a secure post-war future"
Some of us have saying that from the start, Frank. And for saying it, we were denounced as Russian bots by the rabid #slavaukraini brigade.
On we go...
"Zelensky’s maximalist war aims of restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders, along with other unlikely conditions – which were unchallenged and encouraged by a confused but self-aggrandising west – will not be achieved, and the west’s leaders are partly to blame".
You know who else was more than happy to "encourage" Ukraine's literally impossible war aims, Frank? YOU. You and you fellow "experts" and "analysts". You figured all your Christmases had come early, you'd finally found a 'leader' dumb enough to sacrifice his country for your own aims (and just before our resident Nato propagandist interjects here...I know, I know, "AGENCY!!!"). Just dress him up like an Action Man figure, present him to your populations as "this century's Winston Churchill", and let the poor bastard fall right into it.
What Ukraine has needed is not a bunch of false friends slapping them on the back and praising their bravery, they have needed someone to explain the reality of the situation to them.
One more:
"The problem, as so often before, is that the west has not defined what it considers a success. The cost, meanwhile, is becoming all-too clear.
To have clearly defined its goals and limits would have constituted the beginnings of a strategy – and the west isn’t good at that".
Yep. Absolutely no strategy. I've been saying it from the start, and for saying it, the Ukrainian Nato propagandist laughing at the "hilariously incompetent" Russian army from behind a computer screen in leafy Cheshire or wherever demanded I be banned from this forum. And now here we are, with Ukraine in ruins. Well done guys. All you "analysts" and "experts" who STILL get paid to spew your gibberish - great job. From "no negotiations! NEVULL CHAMBURLIN!!" in 2022 to "We need to move heaven and earth to persuade Putin to negotiate" in 2024. Who could possibly have seen this coming 33 months ago? Oh that's right - literally anyone with functioning brain cells.
One last comment on that paragraph from Ledwidge: the reason the West "isn't good at that" is because they don't have to be. The consequences of their regular f*ck-ups don't matter to them, not fundamentally. Nothing rides on any of it for them, it's no biggie. The Ukrainians are beginning to find out what the Kurds or the Afghanis could have told them 3 years ago.
edit: oh and an exhausted and very pissed-off-looking Zelenskiy has started lashing out at the UK and the US on his twitter feed. Even that idiot is starting to figure it out.
A volunteer helping to evacuate people near Pokrovsk, an eastern town that Russian troops are closing in on, said the West just wanted to weaken Russia, not help Ukraine win.
“Soon, there may be no one left even to use the weapons they give us,” said the volunteer, Yevhen Tuzov, “because all our Western partners want is for us to fight until the last Ukrainian.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-russia-war.html
Speaking of delusion, here's my old pal Frank Ledwidge's latest piece. I've mentioned him before on here, he's from the same stable as Ben Hodges, Philips O'Brien et al. Think tank "experts" who always get interviewed by the Western media for their "insight". Frank has spent the last 33 months telling everyone from CNN to BBC to France24 to the Telegraph to the Guardian that Ukraine will win this war.
And now?
https://theconversation.com/ukraine...kyiv-plan-for-a-secure-post-war-future-242010
Some snippets:
"Ukraine cannot defeat Russia – the best the west can do is help Kyiv plan for a secure post-war future"
Some of us have saying that from the start, Frank. And for saying it, we were denounced as Russian bots by the rabid #slavaukraini brigade.
On we go...
"Zelensky’s maximalist war aims of restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders, along with other unlikely conditions – which were unchallenged and encouraged by a confused but self-aggrandising west – will not be achieved, and the west’s leaders are partly to blame".
You know who else was more than happy to "encourage" Ukraine's literally impossible war aims, Frank? YOU. You and you fellow "experts" and "analysts". You figured all your Christmases had come early, you'd finally found a 'leader' dumb enough to sacrifice his country for your own aims (and just before our resident Nato propagandist interjects here...I know, I know, "AGENCY!!!"). Just dress him up like an Action Man figure, present him to your populations as "this century's Winston Churchill", and let the poor bastard fall right into it.
What Ukraine has needed is not a bunch of false friends slapping them on the back and praising their bravery, they have needed someone to explain the reality of the situation to them.
One more:
"The problem, as so often before, is that the west has not defined what it considers a success. The cost, meanwhile, is becoming all-too clear.
To have clearly defined its goals and limits would have constituted the beginnings of a strategy – and the west isn’t good at that".
Yep. Absolutely no strategy. I've been saying it from the start, and for saying it, the Ukrainian Nato propagandist laughing at the "hilariously incompetent" Russian army from behind a computer screen in leafy Cheshire or wherever demanded I be banned from this forum. And now here we are, with Ukraine in ruins. Well done guys. All you "analysts" and "experts" who STILL get paid to spew your gibberish - great job. From "no negotiations! NEVULL CHAMBURLIN!!" in 2022 to "We need to move heaven and earth to persuade Putin to negotiate" in 2024. Who could possibly have seen this coming 33 months ago? Oh that's right - literally anyone with functioning brain cells.
One last comment on that paragraph from Ledwidge: the reason the West "isn't good at that" is because they don't have to be. The consequences of their regular f*ck-ups don't matter to them, not fundamentally. Nothing rides on any of it for them, it's no biggie. The Ukrainians are beginning to find out what the Kurds or the Afghanis could have told them 3 years ago.
edit: oh and an exhausted and very pissed-off-looking Zelenskiy has started lashing out at the UK and the US on his twitter feed. Even that idiot is starting to figure it out.
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By the way if you read any of the articles now coming out from the NYT, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, FT and even, today, CNN about how dire things now are for Ukraine, there is one detail they all have in common: they all quote sources as saying there is a colossal difference between what people like Lloyd Austin, Joe Biden, Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan say in public ("Ukraine can still win! Putin is desperate! Ukraine's future is in NATO") and what they say in private (Ukraine can't win, there's zero chance they're ever joining NATO and we've basically been using Ukraine as our own private military company to weaken Russia with, as we always publicly boast, "not one drop of NATO blood spilt!").
There's a phrase for that. It's called "stringing the Ukrainians along".
There's a phrase for that. It's called "stringing the Ukrainians along".
How relevant is this when China is still bankrolling them?
We should be providing Ukraine with all the weapons they need and with no restrictions… But it seems we can’t risk it, because Russia might help the houthis attack Israel and disturb the holy genocide we all have to support. As long as Netanyahu’s unquestionable right to commit genocide takes priority we can’t really help Ukraine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/us/politics/russia-houthis-weapons.html
Germany's upstart leftists chip at pro-Ukraine consensus
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ftists-chip-pro-ukraine-consensus-2024-11-03/
This is why I can never support the foreign policy of the left wing - to them war is the worst of all outcomes and that it should be stopped by any means necessary no matter what the other costs are. To me, that is stupid, aggravating and downright insulting.
China is trading with Russia, I've not seen anything yet to suggest it goes much further than that. The trade they now do with China/India is also a net loss compared to what they used to do with Europe and the rest of the world. Its possible there is more help behind the scenes but certainly not in any financial numbers that leak out of Russia.
Ukraine is being 'bankrolled' by many different countries, with very favourable loans, interest on frozen Russian assets, other gifts and all sorts of ways. Russia has none of that, from anyone.