Thanks, appreciate the info. Although it's depressing info so if you could lie and say that the war is a few months away from being over that would help.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Nah, I see like a happy bloke and I hate it. We have to drag you down into the doomand gloom
That is why I am telling you that if the war ends in a few month, is most likely because Trump wins, stops supporting Ukraine, Russia wins, making life in Ukraine occupied territories pretty shitty, The rest of Ukraine left to recover from a war with a lost generation and having to repay debts with a destroyed economy with Putin emboldened and eying other countries in Europe in a weakened NATO because trump doesn't want to know anything else of NATO and yes, Trump having more resources that should be alocated for Ukraine to start a war in Iran that would retaliate bombing oil fields in all middle east raising oil price in unprecedented heights destroying the worlds economy causing a war between China and the West for supremacy of resources spawing the WWIII with AI drones swarms entering into your room taking pictures of your butt and posting it in the caf
Well....shit.
And we will be left asking why we didn't support Ukraine better with more weapons and even manpower, air support, no-fly zones, etc, to prevent all this.
This would actually be a scenario where other countries could join the war with troops on the ground. If Trump turns off aid to Ukraine, and has the intention of reducing US presence and support in Europe, other countries might see this as their best chance to take out Russia. Specially Balkan countries/Poland. If US is no longer seen as a trustworthy ally in defense of Russia/Article 5 scenario - then why let Russia off the hook at their weakest stage, to rebuild their forces? Question wold be ofcourse about political will in those countries, many (like Germany) would prefer peace on Russias terms and slowly go back to trade. And is there enough military strength in Europe without US support, to make a significant impact in the war. That I do not know.
Yes, Russia is on the frontfoot in multiple places along the front line and gradually taking territory every day. Although sometimes we are just talking street by street or building by building. Eventually though it always leads to a larger (but still small relative to whole of Ukraine) gain and Ukrainians having to retreat. Whether that translates into Russia being in the victory seat currently depends on your perspective, as they are also taking their biggest losses in the war in the last 10 days (and that trend is holding for a few months now).
Obviously Russia cannot sustain this to take the whole Ukraine at this pace, but they could a) Pause the offensive b) Make a significant breakthrough in the Ukrainian lines c) Benefit from a change in political support for Ukraine, d) Completely collapse as their economy crashes and internal turmoil and troop resentment boils over. Hard to make an accurate prediction at this point.
Look how the Caf has changed you!
They are on the front foot as in they are heavily assaulting in many areas and "taking territory". But, whenever you hear the media and everyone talk about territorial gains, understand the size of what they are taking rounds down to zero in the scheme of things. They occupy 18.30% of Ukraine today, compared to 18.26% a month ago, despite all their recent hype and efforts, 18.00% at the start of the year for context. They are being held at all the major focal points, its mainly fields they are "taking" so that bloggers can celebrate a few extra red pixels on a map, if they zoom in enough. It doesn't matter much, when Ukraine takes it back, they'll take it all at once.
It seems like Russia is making an extra effort lately to try and project strength. Possibly for the elections in the US, Georgia & Moldova, as their various puppets use fear of Russia to their advantage. All indicators though are that they are being massacred and they are not going to take any significant objectives this year. Their results are not remotely worth the cost. Their main current objective to take all of Donetsk is laughable, it would take them years at the current rate of progress even if they could keep it up, which they can't. They are only getting weaker relative to Ukraine. The North Korea thing is a massive sign of weakness.
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Happens once a year, hopefully doesn't go worse
Thanks guys for the input. 
I am reading that Ukraine are aiming a campaign at the NK soldiers promising them three hot meals and a place to stay if they defect
Might not be super effective, considering how NK punish family members for transgressions, but I do love the idea.
I wonder if they can even effectively communicate that idea in a way, where it's believable to those soldiers. The Russians could easily spin it as a trap, I would think.I am reading that Ukraine are aiming a campaign at the NK soldiers promising them three hot meals and a place to stay if they defect
Might not be super effective, considering how NK punish family members for transgressions, but I do love the idea.
Yeah, that’s a good question. But morale isn’t great among Russians and they don’t seem to know how to ensure cohesion between the two forces, so it’s an interesting circumstance that’s been set up. We’ll see how it plays out. Apparently a few Koreans have already defected, though I think that’s before this campaign.