Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Look up the work of Carole Cadwalladr if anyone is confused about the UK response. She needs all the support she can get.
 


According to The Times, Putin has added the Klitschko brothers to a 24 man 'kill list'. He also reportedly sent highly-trained mercenaries, including the private militia the Wagner Group, to kill both the Klitschkos and other targets including President Zelenskyy. The militia reportedly flew in to Ukraine five weeks ago and have been tracking the targets on the list and are awaiting the go-ahead to execute them, which, according to The Times, is expected to come once the negotiations with the Ukrainians inevitably break down.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk//article...s-ordered-to-kill-ukraine-president-cvcksh79d

The plans for public executions are presumably to round up any of those missed by the militia in the coming days and weeks.

Once the existing government is decapitated, Putin will presumably look to install a puppet government in their place.
 
Yeah. We're not there yet, obviously, we're falling from a relatively high perch (compared to the 90's), but I would even expect food shortages at some point if all continues like this. Not in Moscow probably, but in the regions. Our agriculture is very reliant on foreign seeds, for example, we buy most of our wheat abroad etc.

It's very sad. I do feel for the Russian people and the young conscripts sent out on the frontline.

I remember the mid to late 90s and it seemed that Russia was modernising and becoming more western. I suppose for many in Russia this is an anathema in and of itself. That said, I can't help but think if Russia could've come along with the west and 'the global rules based order' it would be a lot better off than it is today. There were signs this could've happened early in Putin's reign but unfortunately here we are.
 
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.

There can be only one response to use of Nukes.
Chilling as it is
 
It's hovering around freezing in Ukraine, I appreciate Russians know cold well, but it's still pretty miserable if sleeping outdoors on an ongoing basis not knowing when you'll be moving next.

I assume they're sleeping in the vehicles, but I doubt they can just keep the vehicles running for heat as I expect they need to conserve fuel.

Based on the videos of russian POW, many of them said they didn't eat for 3-4 days. The cold must definitely be a big issue as well.

Plus, there're new reports of Ukrainian jets carrying strikes on them.

 
According to The Times, Putin has added the Klitschko brothers to a 24 man 'kill list'. He also reportedly sent highly-trained mercenaries, including the private militia the Wagner Group, to kill both the Klitschkos and other targets including President Zelenskyy. The militia reportedly flew in to Ukraine five weeks ago and have been tracking the targets on the list and are awaiting the go-ahead to execute them, which, according to The Times, is expected to come once the negotiations with the Ukrainians inevitably break down.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk//article...s-ordered-to-kill-ukraine-president-cvcksh79d

The plans for public executions are presumably to round up any of those missed by the militia in the coming days and weeks.

Once the existing government is decapitated, Putin will presumably look to install a puppet government in their place.
I would not be surprised if both the Klitschko brothers ultimately die. They have shown themselves to be two very courageous men indeed.
 
@GlastonSpur We all know what the answer is if Putin sent Nukes. It would be swift retaliation and not much would be left of this planet to be quite frank.
 
Having 2-3 weeks of funds available may be a bit misleading since it doesn't factor in the impact of the sanctions (which can't be accurately measured yet). Even if he were to get desperate and attempt to use much more destructive weapons to expedite gaining control of Kyiv, it still wouldn't help his financial situation, nor would it help Russia's economy being plunged into a deep depression. He can't hold on to power much longer under these circumstances and NATO/EU leaders know it.
Do you believe more sanctions will follow, if Zelenskyy is killed?
 
Based on the videos of russian POW, many of them said they didn't eat for 3-4 days. The cold must definitely be a big issue as well.

Plus, there're new reports of Ukrainian jets carrying strikes on them.



that doesn’t look like the Russia column?
 
Having 2-3 weeks of funds available may be a bit misleading since it doesn't factor in the impact of the sanctions (which can't be accurately measured yet). Even if he were to get desperate and attempt to use much more destructive weapons to expedite gaining control of Kyiv, it still wouldn't help his financial situation, nor would it help Russia's economy being plunged into a deep depression. He can't hold on to power much longer under these circumstances and NATO/EU leaders know it.

I'm not sure how he can be removed from power. He has been in power so long that almost everything and everyone is now under his thumb.

Because the regime control almost all the media in Russia - and have severely restricted access to the internet inside Russia - a large majority of Russians believe the lies spun by Putin. Added to this is the existence of a very large, well-funded, internal security apparatus whose continued existence depends on Putin's survival.

So even if 10% of Russians were to rise up in open revolt, which is unlikely, they would be crushed - dubbed as "traitors" - with the approval of most Russians.

The only (slim) hope in my view is that enough members of his inner circle get so spooked by what's happening that they band together and conduct a palace coup.

But how do you think he can/will be removed from power?
 
I would not be surprised if both the Klitschko brothers ultimately die. They have shown themselves to be two very courageous men indeed.
They remind me of our Vidic.
Alex Ferguson takes up the story in his autobiography.

“Vidic was a dour, uncompromising sod.

“He was a proud Serb. In 2009, he came to see me to say he might be getting called up.

“‘What do you mean, called up?’ I said, alarmed. ‘Kosovo. I am going,’ he said.

“‘It’s my duty.’
 
I been a pos to assholes in this thread. Anyone I have assaulted has deserved it. I don't give a shit anymore. Redcafe is a terrible place nowadays. The fact that you were best newbie promoted is a testament to it. The mods let anyone spread any lies and anti-vax bs and conspiracy theories as much as possible. They let hansifickmich troll the United forum. They let Russian trolls spread their bs, heck one of the mods is a russian troll pos.

There is nothing good about redcafe anymore after SteveJ and Olly have left and Hectic taking a break, mockney or brwned not writing much. I don't give a shit if I am banned. If I see an asshole in this thread I will call them out if I want to.
Hey, woah there. They're only 50% best newbie....
 
Do you believe more sanctions will follow, if Zelenskyy is killed?

I wouldn't think so given that a vast majority (if not all) sanctions have already been thrown at him. Sad as it would be to see Zelenskyy go, it would probably also turn him into a martyr and make Ukrainians doubly resolute in fighting Putin. It would also reaffirm international resolve to get rid of Putin, as opposed to create a situation that would somehow allow him to survive this.
 
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Just seen reports here in Germany suggesting that China might have known full well what was going to happen and may have asked Russia to wait until after the Olympics.

Well yeah they knew full well because the US had been sharing the intelligence for some time before. I'd imagine the level of intelligence on the Olympics claim is reasonable assumption based on them meeting.
 
According to The Times, Putin has added the Klitschko brothers to a 24 man 'kill list'. He also reportedly sent highly-trained mercenaries, including the private militia the Wagner Group, to kill both the Klitschkos and other targets including President Zelenskyy. The militia reportedly flew in to Ukraine five weeks ago and have been tracking the targets on the list and are awaiting the go-ahead to execute them, which, according to The Times, is expected to come once the negotiations with the Ukrainians inevitably break down.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk//article...s-ordered-to-kill-ukraine-president-cvcksh79d

The plans for public executions are presumably to round up any of those missed by the militia in the coming days and weeks.

Once the existing government is decapitated, Putin will presumably look to install a puppet government in their place.

News reports i saw a couple of days ago said the mercenaries had been found and killed.

The Wagner Group especially showed themselves to not be all that fearsome in Syria.
 
I'm not sure how he can be removed from power. He has been in power so long that almost everything and everyone is now under his thumb.

Because the regime control almost all the media in Russia - and have severely restricted access to the internet inside Russia - a large majority of Russians believe the lies spun by Putin. Added to this is the existence of a very large, well-funded, internal security apparatus whose continued existence depends on Putin's survival.

So even if 10% of Russians were to rise up in open revolt, which is unlikely, they would be crushed - dubbed as "traitors" - with the approval of most Russians.

The only (slim) hope in my view is that enough members of his inner circle get so spooked by what's happening that they band together and conduct a palace coup.

But how do you think he can/will be removed from power?

Every leader can be removed from power, whether by revolution, assassination, peaceful coup (involving an arrest by coup plotters) etc. Putin relies on people around him and a security and intelligence apparatus to protect him. If things get bad enough in Russia, replete with images of crackdowns, imprisonments, the murder of dissenting voices, a severe curtailment of basic services etc., then the chances of someone or a group within his inner circle taking matters into their own hands goes up significantly.
 
Every leader can be removed from power, whether by revolution, assassination, peaceful coup (involving an arrest by coup plotters) etc. Putin relies on people around him and a security and intelligence apparatus to protect him. If things get bad enough in Russia, replete with images of crackdowns, imprisonments, the murder of dissenting voices, a severe curtailment of basic services etc., then the chances of someone or a group within his inner circle taking matters into their own hands goes up significantly.
I don't think he's going anywhere any soon and rest assured if he would be removed he would take the world with him before leaving.
 
There can be only one response to use of Nukes.
Chilling as it is

The problem for NATO with a tactical nuke used inside Ukraine, if that were to happen, is that Ukraine is not part of NATO. Moreover, Putin would probably tell lies - either denying the fact, or claiming that NATO has smuggled in the nuke and detonated it in order to blacken Russia's name.

It's hard to know, but my guess is that NATO would not respond militarily by sending forces into Ukraine - because WWWIII would likely be the result. I hope this guess is correct.

An attack on a NATO member is a whole different kettle of fish.
 
The problem for NATO with a tactical nuke used inside Ukraine, if that were to happen, is that Ukraine is not part of NATO. Moreover, Putin would probably tell lies - either denying the fact, or claiming that NATO has smuggled in the nuke and detonated it in order to blacken Russia's name.

It's hard to know, but my guess is that NATO would not respond militarily by sending forces into Ukraine - because WWWIII would likely be the result. I hope this guess is correct.

An attack on a NATO member is a whole different kettle of fish.
But the thing is the moment Nukes are sent WW3 has already begun.

Them not being a NATO member would mean nothing in that scenario I believe.
 
@GlastonSpur We all know what the answer is if Putin sent Nukes. It would be swift retaliation and not much would be left of this planet to be quite frank.
The moment he launches a nuke all the western world will hunt him and he'll have less than 24 hours till he dies.

Given today's nuke power, not even the most crazy ass idiots will start a nuke war. Putin will launch the nuke, but won't live to see it's effects. That's the only way to stop a nuke war, you kill the idiot that has them.
 
I don't think he's going anywhere any soon and rest assured if he would be removed he would take the world with him before leaving.

That's why he would be removed by internal means to where he wouldn't have the ability to do any of that.
 
The moment he launches a nuke all the western world will hunt him and he'll have less than 24 hours till he dies.

Given today's nuke power, not even the most crazy ass idiots will start a nuke war. Putin will launch the nuke, but won't live to see it's effects. That's the only way to stop a nuke war, you kill the idiot that has them.
In 24 hours the cnut could obliterate the entire west if he wanted to but on the other hand Russia would also within 24 hours be gone.