Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It's not a dramatic scenario, it's a preposterous one. China and most Opec states hold tens of billions in dollar assets and the US consumes c2.5, more oil than China and Russia combined.

Oil is also one asset of loads out there, unless gold, palladium, soy beans etc all switch to yuan.

Which is again mostly produced by the BRICS and OPEC countries.

70% of Palladium is mined by SA and Russia. China, Russia and India are the top three producers of Aluminum, with China way ahead of the pack. China and Russia are the biggest producers of gold worldwide, etc.


First of all, China are less than happy about the current situation and they want it solved, peacefully, just the consequences for the global energy market is of annoyance to China as it means increased costs. Secondly, prior to all of this Ukraine was a bigger trade partner to China than Russia, and China depend on a well functioning global market. Tanking the global market, sure as shit isn't something they're keen on and there's nothing at all right now that suggests Russia is even going to compensate for the increased costs in the energy market.

China won't show their true colors in the current situation and IMO will play double game. One of the biggest problem in China is energy as mentioned, and Russia can give them resource at discounted price, so naturally they will take this opportunity. They already concluded a new 30 years deal with Russia for the supply of natural gas and building a new infrastructure.

Russia/China can also negotiate a fix price it's not like they will be window shopping in this scenario..
 
China won't show their true colors in the current situation and IMO will play double game. One of the biggest problem in China is energy as mentioned, and Russia can give them resource at discounted price, so naturally they will take this opportunity. They already concluded a new 30 years deal with Russia for the supply of natural gas and building a new infrastructure.

Russia/China can also negotiate a fix price it's not like they will be window shopping in this scenario..

I love how the double game is that they'll shoot themselves in the face with a shotgun. Brilliant
 
This is not possible. The guy is a nutter and is overplaying his nukes card. Letting Putin save his face impliesletting him bomb the hell out of Ukraine, erase their national identity and install his puppet. Not happening. Every time his mouthpiece mentions nukes, more sanctions are being considered.

What isn’t possible?
 
Why would you need to rebuild your entire systems, CIPS follows the same ISO standards so the integration isn't that different. Obviously many legacy systems are a bit outdated in regards to currency but I've been involved in multi-currency and FX adaptations and it's certainly not even a fraction of that cost.

Swapping out the institutional SWIFT kit for CIFS isn't really the problem, although that's in the £x millions alone. It's every other system expecting things in USD that would then come through in Yen. They'd need to figure out how to manage stuff on the general ledger before and after the switch and then everything that relies on the ledger, which is most things. All the treasury management stuff etc. And that's before you get into stuff like fraud systems.
 
This also shows that Kherson is still being contested given that the business the Russian guy appears to be fighting on Ushakova, which is one of the main drags in Kherson.
With doors that sturdy it's no surprise that they're struggling.
 
well yes I think everybody sees that ... the question is what do they do when that does not work

Do they climb down or not?

Right now it seems that Putin chose a soft appproach initially to not cause too much resistance by the Ukrainian and Russian people as well as the NATO. So while the attack is obviously reckless and disgusting, he still seems to consider the consequences of his actions and how they influence Russia's future. It would be a pretty big step from that to "you know what, screw it, I'll just blow up the whole world including Russia".
 
World Taekwondo federation has REVOKED Putin’s black belt.
 
Seeing various differening reports of what's going on here so I wouldn't bother believing anything yet.

Some saying that there is a Ukranian missile boat patrolling off Odessa...



Ukraine still has navy?
 
According to the FT:

"Russian World Bank adviser quits in protest at invasion of Ukraine"

His name is Boris Lvin.

Perhaps it's starting - the backlash so desperately needed.
 
Swapping out the institutional SWIFT kit for CIFS isn't really the problem, although that's in the £x millions alone. It's every other system expecting things in USD that would then come through in Yen. They'd need to figure out how to manage stuff on the general ledger before and after the switch and then everything that relies on the ledger, which is most things. All the treasury management stuff etc. And that's before you get into stuff like fraud systems.

I think i could guess which bank by reputation if that's the cost. I've worked on most if not all of that list in projects just not in regards to Yen and i can't grasp the cost but maybe there's other factors in play.

For a full from scratch rebuild you might be right to be fair.
 
Basically China's enormous growth in this economy (post 2008).

No country has had more growth in this economy.
Yes but China was obviously coming from an extremely low base compared to the US. It's clearly had huge growth, but not devoid of its own problems, eg the parlous state of its property sector, which is about a third of its economy.
 

I watched this and he basically said that they'd been getting messages from sources since last year that Putin was basically reinforcing his dictatorship. But obviously that doesn't really help with his open source work. It did make them pay more attention to Russia. According to this source, Putin had boasted to a small circle of loyalists about going to war with Ukraine.

The warning they received last year is that a full dictatorship would materialize in March of this year. What was already known back then that there’d be a lot of discontent among the elites, there was already some thinking about a coup or disobedience. This is going to be increased manifold because of the unprecedented loses. Russia will be a different society in two weeks because of the actions of different actors re: sanctions. Again, a source said that people around Putin are freaking out and looking to secure their interests and looking at what they can do about Putin, but again this isn't something he can verify through open source investigation (obviously).

They specifically wanted to pay attention to false flags, to be able to debunk them which they did but basically also said that they were so bad that no one would be convinced by them. Putin went to war anyway.

Their focus is on archiving war crimes.

People close to Putin asses the nuclear threat as realistic even if analysts in the west don’t which scares him. It is unknowable through data.

Talking about the Russian casualties: conflict intelligence team is a Russian outlet that focusses on war crimes and activities, they are doing a bottom up approach where they look at sources with burnt out tanks and dead bodies. They found 700-900. He himself looks at destroyed airplanes, tanks etc. to get to an analytic number to get an idea of how many people were there before it was destroyed.