What's with all the histrionics in the news? Our media really is batshit, as are the people who actually listen to it. The first 20 seconds or so of the news - that's all that actually matters. You can turn off/stop reading after that, because the rest is nonsense.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Now that's what I call a post
I think some deal has been reached behind the scenes and will be announced shortly. I highly doubt all Putin wanted to gain from this is a domestic narrative where he can claim the West are panicky warmongering folks, without any further concessions from Ukraine or NATO. Seems like a narrative he can already sell (and is probably doing already) domestically anyway, without this massive build-up.
If he wanted to scare the West but without gaining concessions, did he really scare the West then? I highly doubt that'd be Putin's calculation. If anything, the West will take the next build-up less seriously, knowing Putin won't attack anyway.
If he wanted to scare the West but without gaining concessions, did he really scare the West then? I highly doubt that'd be Putin's calculation. If anything, the West will take the next build-up less seriously, knowing Putin won't attack anyway.
The problem is that this isn't the first massive build up. The actual question is why the West and its media reacted this way publicly?
Unless an invasion was seriously contemplated but they were deterred by all the leaking? Then the Biden administration and others can claim their strategy prevented a military conflict.
Its the first of this scale, by a large margin, roughly double that of April 21 and thats only if you look at the BTG count that most focus on. On top of that there is the increased naval and air force activity this time around, other supplementary forces not normally part of the BTG make-up and a lot more infrastructure put in place.
There has been no over-reaction by anybody inside Ukraine or out, gotta prepare for whats put in front of you at the end of the day. If you only pay attention to clickbait media then that's your problem.
I think this is spot on. Putin is more than prepared to invade after placing thousands of troops and resources everywhere from Belarus to the Russian/Ukrainian border, to the Black Sea, but has been deterred (at least momentarily) by leaks of his plans, which has completely ruined the element of surprise he would rely on to invade. This is a hybrid ops mission involving a theatrically fabricated provocation that hasn't yet worked. He is probably also weighing the cost/benefit of codifying Russia as an international pariah state that can't be done business with, not to mention the shutting off of Nord Stream gas sales. If he doesn't follow through, it will be for a combination of these reasons. If he does follow through then it would be an indication that his risk tolerance or conquering new land is very high, at which point Europe should be very concerned.
Last edited:
Or it was as announced part of a serie of exercises that they announced a while ago? You don't think that it's convenient for the West to create this mess when they knew that troops would move in that region? They have known for at least 5 months and they made everyone believe that it was some sort of a surprise which in itself is lying by omission.
In theory we can imagine that Russia planned anything and everything, I have no issue with speculations if you share the entire picture but it's not what happened. The West lied by omission and in the last week recognized the existence of planned exercises in Belarus and at the western borders. For me they are clearly being dishonest and some of the experts on twitter are also being dishonest with telling half truths, for example a large part of the troops are supposed to permanently remain around the border, it's been the case for a long time, they actually started it in 2016.
They all know what is happening, they all know what the situation is and they all know that neither Russia nor NATO will leave that border alone.
So this 'de-escalation' seems to be planned to co-incide with Russia reconognising Donesk/Luhansk as independant states.
Expect them to follow that up with moving in peacekeeping forces to guarantee that independence.
Expect them to follow that up with moving in peacekeeping forces to guarantee that independence.
It's not. The estimation in April were 120k troops and today it's around 120k-150k. The exercise from September in Belarus counted around 200k troops according to reports.
Official statements at this time should never be taken at face value. They all have an objective. The US wasn't interested in getting a journalistic scoop or keeping its citizens informed by declaring that a Russian invasion was imminent in days. By declaring that, they were hoping to achieve something.
You put too much value on troop numbers.
What do you think the West hoped to achieve by lying?
On the contrary. That's the argument given by media and where the attention of the public has been focused during the last weeks. I asked people what was the difference, what make them believe that it was different and everyone keep using troop numbers or how far those troops traveled. You can't have it both ways tell me that I put too much value on troop numbers while the only argument shared has been troop numbers at the border.
The numbers are less important. The fact that they are tactically set up in places like Belarus and the Black Sea to invade Ukraine is more important.
I'm not sure how definite this Russian de-escalation is, but I think Putin made a strategic mistake long term. Nato was in a bit of political disarray after the Kabul debacle and a lot of voices in Europe were starting to talk about a more robust European force. With this Ukraine business, the vast majority of European countries have doubled down on a strong US led Nato and will probably pump a bit more money in those decaying defense budgets.
I don't know, I would like to understand because they are incoherent. But they clearly aren't telling the truth since we have previous reports telling us what was planned, it makes no sense for the West to act surprised. And then you have the small issue of the West being divided with some adamant about something and the others trying to get more information about that take, it's not as if the West was on the same page.
Agreed. If Putin were to set out to legitimize the long term need for NATO to continue, his Ukraine invasion plans and. general predatory behavior of using gas as a political tool are great ways to do it.
Yes some media also puts too much value in troop numbers, details don't fit in headlines.
So it was all one huge training exercise ?
Involving 130K troops and associated toys, ships, planes and tanks.
So all the intelligence saying an invasion was imminent were wrong ?
Involving 130K troops and associated toys, ships, planes and tanks.
So all the intelligence saying an invasion was imminent were wrong ?
So all the panic, airlines staying away, embassy evacuations, citizen warnings to leave Ukraine asap...because of exercises?
Military field hospital arriving yesteday, guess they didn't get the memo.
But that's not new, I could understand your point if it was a new, development, I could understand it if they weren't supposed to be in Belarus for a while or in the Black Sea. But it's not the case.
People keep dodging the question, Russia could invade Ukraine, they have been in that position for a while, they have been moving BTGs around the border for years. My question is the following, it's a fact that Russia are maintaining pressure at the border, it's a fact that they have put themselves in a position to invade several of their neighbours at various points in time and it's pretty clear that trolling is part of the way they decided to operate, they do it even far from Russia but what make people believe that it's different to what Russia have done for a while?
I'm not telling you what Russia are going to do or not in the future but asking you why you think this is one is different. Give me a clear detailed answer, no one has done that.
PS: Even the field hospitals aren't a new thing despite what some papers claimed a few days ago.
Vlad just needs to wait until 2024 when his boy Donald is back in the White House.
Has it occurred to you that Putin may have been planning this for a long time, which is why the troops have been "conducting exercises" there for a long time ?
He may wait forever then.
Details aren't actually a good way to support the claims either. The only thing that could support those claims are not visible to us which is fair, the public and twitter mob isn't supposed to have access to sensitive intel but it means that most experts who are using videos of moving troops, temporary or permanent barrracks should shut up because these things aren't new and not the reason why one would think that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.
I accept that I will never have the answer that I want but it's irritating to see fear-mongers given a platform when it's obvious that they are talking throught their backside because they weren't saying a thing when they had similar things to witness months ago.
@JPRouve thoughts on this? Are we being deceived by all these organizations and so-called experts?
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-buildup-ukraine-monitors/31703393.html
Who are these fear mongers you speak of ? Journalists who are covering the news ?
This whole thing has exposed the severe lack of soft Russian power. It's only foreign policy options in dealing with the West (EU/US/Nato - UK historically) is through intimidation and keeping the looming spectre of hot war. For a major country, they've polonium'ed, novichok'ed, annexed, cyberattacked and doped their way through the last 22 years, which is astounding when you think about it.
Putin really wants to drag Russia back into true superpower status, which it simply can never be when its economy is ranked 11th in the world. Militaristically, it's clearly formidable. But when it isn't able to build relationships with its near neighbours - Baltic states, Ukraine, even Moldova is at odds - without stationing 100k troops on their borders then you know things must be quite desperate within the Russian state itself.
I have never wanted to be able to read Russian more than now, as I'd love to have a scan of Russian comments on social media (on internal issues mainly, not on how they perceive Western agencies and countries as it's pretty obvious).
Putin will be around for a long time, but it'll be chaotic when he does finally go. I think they will become heavily reliant on Chinese investment and backing over the coming decade to offset their non-existent relations with any of the other economic powerhouses.
Putin really wants to drag Russia back into true superpower status, which it simply can never be when its economy is ranked 11th in the world. Militaristically, it's clearly formidable. But when it isn't able to build relationships with its near neighbours - Baltic states, Ukraine, even Moldova is at odds - without stationing 100k troops on their borders then you know things must be quite desperate within the Russian state itself.
I have never wanted to be able to read Russian more than now, as I'd love to have a scan of Russian comments on social media (on internal issues mainly, not on how they perceive Western agencies and countries as it's pretty obvious).
Putin will be around for a long time, but it'll be chaotic when he does finally go. I think they will become heavily reliant on Chinese investment and backing over the coming decade to offset their non-existent relations with any of the other economic powerhouses.
Partially, yes.
Agreed 100%. It also underscores the idea that an authoritarian dictatorship masquerading as a democracy cannot survive indefinitely without going on the attack to thwart democracy elsewhere, for fear that it may one day ignite a domestic revolution from within. Its the fundamental blueprint that defines Putin's behavior and coming to terms with this is key to unlocking how best to deal with him.
So you believe Vladimir Putin's desired narrative, but not information from journalists in the free world ? Interesting.
there are way too many people going to be genuinely disappointed that a war won’t happen. So much of the media and people on forums have an alarming mindset to all of this.
Honestly, I don't know what to make of it outside of believing it because there are seemingly two things happening at the same time. A reorganization of certain divisions at the border from the Baltics to the Black sea, with increased numbers and also large scale exercises. Russia muddies the water and has done it for a while which is why I want to understand the difference.
So pretty much another Abkhazia/South Ossetia/Transnistria situation?
Pretty much guarantees hostile relations with Kiev for the foreseeable (although perhaps that would be the case anyway given Crimea), so all in all would amount to a net loss for Moscow since 2014.
No, I'm asking questions. Not trusting Putin doesn't mean that I will trust the other side, I trust neither of them and question both.
Ahh ok, gotcha.