Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In front of whom exactly?
People in other countries and their leaders, who don't want to see an invasion and potential spread of war elsewhere. I suspect Putin has already made up his mind, but adding global public pressure and the implications of Russian relations with other countries may influence his calculus.
Get out! It’s just faulty US and U.K. intelligence. Absolutely nothing to see here
Public statements like this from US can’t influence anyone who Putin cares about — be it the very few of the world elite that he cares about (they won’t be persuaded by this) or his own electorate. US crying wolf for the past few months is actually used by Putin’s propaganda as a tool to convince Russians that it’s the West that escalates the conflict.
You project a democratic way of thinking on him where his decisions can be influenced by a potential unrest in public opinion. He’s not a democrat and he stopped caring about it a long time ago. Especially if it’s not his electorate but some people from US/UK/Germany or whatever.
Heh. Peace for our time and all
Backtracking already?
Can expect the U.K. government to start evacuating animals any day now.
Do you understand that countries have the right to self determination yet?
I do wonder if Putin frog-boiled us. Essentially gradually increasing tension until it's pretty much accepted rather than a big shock.
America and other countries tell their citizens to leave Ukraine Immediately.
Not very likely for a few reasons.
1. Most of the world don't recognize Crimea as part of Russia. So even if Biden and NATO were to improbably strike a deal as you describe, the rest of the world (other than a handful of Putin friendly dictatorships) would not be obliged to participate in it and Crimea would still be viewed as contested. Beyond that, there would be nothing stopping Putin from inventing another reason to invade Ukraine. He's done it before and he could easily do it again.
2. Putin's desired end state is retaking all of Ukraine, so all of his bluster about Ukraine in NATO and them reinvading Crimea thereby triggering Article 5, is merely a way for him foment a convenient reason to invade. Ultimately, he doesn't want Ukraine in NATO because he considers it part of the Russian sphere and craves the glory of being perceived as the Russian leader who restored a major part of the Soviet/Russian empire after the humiliation of the 90s.
3. He simply can't allow Ukraine to join NATO, because he can't afford to allow a democracy to take flight within the former Soviet sphere, for fear of how it could ignite domestic Russian pro-democracy sentiment leading to a revolution resulting in his execution. He is keenly aware what happened to Qaddafi, Saddam and others.
I’ll tell Moyes to prepare the chopper for Zouma imminently.
This isn't a Sunday dinner dispute, over 100,000 Russian soldiers with tanks, aircraft, and ships are amassed near the Ukraine border. Video footage is all over the web showing Russian soldiers going on trains and equipment in place so it's not just the "fearmongering Americans" making stuff up. For Ukraine's sake, I hope they are prepared because no one is coming to save them. If I were them, I would spend less time telling other people off and more time preparing to defend (unless of course they don't care to fight for their country, it's up to them).
100% agree with you. This is not fearmongering.
Unless they dont care
How do you know they are not preparing or what is the quality of their prepararions? Or you want them to mobilize every reservist and actually force the issue ? Putin is conducting a large scale psyop with this buildup. He may or may not attack, but Ukraine descending into panic and chaos is actually realizing his goals without a shot.I think Raoul is a bit wrong about this too but not for the reasons you cite. The reason that the US is "crying wolf" is to alert their own allies to the threat that Russia (and China) pose to the current status quo and the likelihood that Putin takes similar steps to what he has already done in parts of Georgia and Ukraine. I doubt the US government thinks that anything they say will dissuade Putin from invading Ukraine if that's what he actually wants to do, especially with China seemingly willing to offer financial support if the circumstance requires it.
With regards to your claims about US statements being used by Putin for propaganda to the Russian people, well, he doesn't really need the US to say anything to justify actions to the Russian people. This has been shown for the past 2+ decades of Putin's rule, where he has successfully silenced any political opposition in the country and sent troops to multiple countries against their will without those countries directly attacking or supporting attacks on Russia. Even if the US decided to permanently disband its military, destroy its nuclear weapons, and engage in no conflict of any sort, Putin would still successfully convince a sizeable percentage of the Russian people that the US is fomenting war against Russia. And I am not saying this to demean the Russian people, we have seen 30-40% of the American population fall prey to the most ridiculous of lies. If you're the US government, it's better to raise the alarm and be wrong than not say anything and then be accused of being caught off-guard if the Russian military does move to capture more Ukrainian territory and potentially be held responsible for any Americans or other Westerners trapped in Ukraine that die in any resulting conflict.
I honestly wish the US would stop antagonizing half the world.
Stopping china. What did china ever did to you guys? Other than being better economically.
Oh... but taiwan... freedom...
Which country? It's between Germany and Russia.
He is wrong because he has no clue. Anyone with a sense would know that Russia cannot conquer Ukraine. They will destroy themselves if they try to conquer Ukraine.
Whatever Putin is, he is not an idiot. He has shown his hand that it's Crimea he wants and is not going to give it back. He will sacrifice Donbas too. Keep the pressure until something gives way. You can't legally sanction a country for having military exercises in your own country. Or with other countries who are willing to hold it with you.
Ukraine is prepared — as prepared as you can be in this situation. They’re not ignoring the potential threat. The issue is, the way that US, UK and the rest are behaving forces Putin to act (instead of getting him to rethink his plan as they know his future moves already like @Raoul suggests) — they are calling his bluff… but it’s not very likely that he’s going to fold.
No one (and especially not Ukrainians) underestimates the potential threat. No one doubts that Russia has a very significant military presence near the border, ready to attack. But the way that the US/UK governments & media treat this completely discards Ukraine’s interest in the matter. They are prepared to force Putin into invasion because they believe that most likely he’ll chicken out, which would be their desired outcome. Ukraine’s one and only interest is to avoid that invasion (while keeping its sovereignty & the right of political self-determination).
I've read a different explanation for the UK/US media escalation. The explanation is that the UK/US government are escalating this very publicly, in order to force Ukraine into making concessions. The more serious the situation, the more pressure mounts on Ukraine to give in.
Not to force Putin into actually taking military action.
Not saying you're wrong but this is a different explanation that I've read.
They are preparing, they’ve mobilized hundreds of thousands reservists, organized local militia, they’ve called up tens of thousands of women to replace military personnel in non-combat roles to free people that can fight for the actual combat etc.Unless they dont care
I just spoke to a very knowledgeable lawyer who lives in Kiev. She told me panic levels have reached a high over the last two days. She received info from a respected UKR journalist and another lawyer who works closely with a couple of oligarchs that "something" is going to happen in the next few days.
She says it is very possible that a major landmark or government building in Kiev will be blown up soon and that Putin will say it was planted by UKR separatists. According to her an invasion is still less likely than no invasion. 60%/40%
Please remember, I'm just writing here what she said.
She says it is very possible that a major landmark or government building in Kiev will be blown up soon and that Putin will say it was planted by UKR separatists. According to her an invasion is still less likely than no invasion. 60%/40%
Please remember, I'm just writing here what she said.
Oh, yeah, those reasons aren’t mutually exclusive. The preferred scenario would be Putin backing off after getting some concessions from NATO & Ukraine but those that don’t hurt the Western interests too much. But that escalation is forcing Putin to act (either to invade or to give up, which is less likely), whenever it’s what they want or not (I would think that they’re smart enough to know that it does).
In both mine and your versions (that don’t contradict each other at all) the main idea is the same — while they technically stand behind Ukraine, they only care about their long-term interests and have Ukraine as something that they can ultimately sacrifice if it doesn’t hurt them directly.
Something will blow up and Putin will say "his" guys did it
Ukraine separatists. Ukrainian citizens who are fighting Ukraine. Was my post not clear?Something will blow up and Putin will say "his" guys did it
And are those not supported by Putin (what I meant by "his" guys)
Damn that script, only thing missing is Steven Seagal with his necklace to pop out from somewhere.
I think he means that why would Putin use that as a casus belli, if it'd be Russian-sponsored separatists at fault?
Ah, OK. Putin could just say, "I don't tell them what to do. We're innocent."
The response of the West could be the CB he's looking for.
Don't know if this was posted, anyway - "American citizens should leave now... We're dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It's a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly...," Biden said in a pre-recorded interview with NBC News. Adding that he does not intend to send troops to Ukraine, Biden said - "That's a world war. When Americans and Russians start shooting one another, we're in a very different world."
This tells me the West will ultimately let Putin do what he wants.
This tells me the West will ultimately let Putin do what he wants.
I wouldn't be surprised if the American military in a morbid way would be fascinated to see the Russian military in action. They'd be studying it 24/7.
So..in a nutshell Putin will be saying : It was the separatists...but it was definitely not me who told them to do it.
Can see a few ways this is rather unlikely.
I don’t see how blowing up something in Kiev would be beneficial for Putin as a cause for invasion (surely blowing up something in Donetsk or either in, I don’t know, Rostov and blaming it on Ukrainians would make more sense).
But in a nutshell that’s what he has been saying for the past 8 years. Russia doesn’t have any troops in Eastern Ukraine/if you see a Russian military it’s someone who has bought its uniform in a military store/if you find a Russian soldier, he’s taken a sabbatical and went there as a volunteer/if separatists are using Russian weapons, including tanks & new missiles… they probably aren’t, you’re mistaken (with a trademark smirk at the camera).