Does he at least admit the green men in Crimea were Russian?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Nothing in this whole situation falls in the "likely" category. Personally, I don't think any physical invasion is even remotely likely. As for the bomb, that's just speculation by anxious people.
I think he did at some point a few years later. Overall it was pretty baffling — I’m obviously not surprised by the fact that Putin lied on camera (I’d be surprised if he had ever told the truth), but he usually tries to sell that lie. When he was talking about our military in Ukraine I kept feeling that he was going to wink at the camera or to use air quotes, it looked like something straight from a Sacha Baron Cohen movie.
I reckon they might be thinking weather here is what ultimately may force Putin to act now, for the tanks to move around properly you need freezing temperatures and it’s getting much warmer now in Donetsk as we speak.
The benefits of being an autocrat.
Unless they dont careHow do you know they are not preparing or what is the quality of their prepararions? Or you want them to mobilize every reservist and actually force the issue ? Putin is conducting a large scale psyop with this buildup. He may or may not attack, but Ukraine descending into panic and chaos is actually realizing his goals without a shot.
I think most believe it is some kind of psyop/posturing, I expect US intelligence do also, but you have to prepare for what is presented in front of you. If Russia is going to mobilise every branch of its armed forces toward an invasion of Ukraine, you have to prepare for that eventuality, there is no choice there, even if you think it is 1% likelihood of going through.
It makes some sense for Zelensky to minimise panic, while preparing and begging for as much help as possible in the back-channels. It makes sense for other stakeholders to take precautions, i.e. other countries that don't want to see an illigitimate invasion of a European country by a facist dictator. So deterrants have to be put in place, Ukraine has to be armed and other intelligence services have to get to work. Other countries evactuating their staff is a pretty standard precaution given the face of what Russia is presenting.
There is nothing complicated or controversial about the western response so far, anyone saying otherwise... Now that is Russian psyop.
Did you think there would be an intervention from the west? Would never happen over Ukraine/non NATO state.
Edit: Maybe would happen if Russia invaded Finland/Sweden.
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You have to look towards game theory to help explain the moves and statements of the different parties, rather than just take them at face value. I’m hoping the US’s rhetoric is about wanting to encourage Putin to show them to the US and allies to be wrong by not engaging in further military action, when they claim it is imminent.
Depends on the scale, if full scale, what do you think will happen when civilian casualties enter the thousands and images of dead children flood our screens every day?
You’ll get shock and horror but there won’t be an intervention because essentially it would mean a ww3.
No, I did not think that.
Fair enough.
A line has to be drawn somewhere.
I really doubt that, that line is Ukraine though. We’ll most likely see images every day if and when the invasion happens.
This is the bell signifying current geopolitical doctrines and assumptions are dead.
Would be invaders have the green light for whatever posturing and invading they want as long as it isn’t NATO territory.
Judging by what happens in Ukraine over the coming months China will make a decision on Taiwan and call the West’s bluff.
Yeah, agreed.
Again, if this is what they’re doing, they don’t understand who they’re dealing with.
China doesn't give a damn about the West and won't care one bit about what happens in Ukraine, one way or the other. It won't inform their future actions.
Modern China leadership cares A LOT about Western opinion. And they also care about what a Western response to encroaching on Taiwan would be.
If they didn’t they would have already annexed it. Hell that whole region of water is of massive concern to China as a buffer in the same way Russia see’s Ukraine as a buffer.
They don't care about it from a military standpoint and they don't care about the security council either which is basically what we are talking about in this thread. Every security council member knows that no conflict will happen, even the minnows like France and the UK can inflict terrible damages before losing a conflict which isn't worth it.
China already know what the response would be, it would be a relatively short economic section, nothing else. No one is going to war with China over Taiwan outside of Taiwan on their own.
Sorry man, but this is far too simplistic. The US has an actual law on their books about providing Taiwan with defensive capabilities. It doesn't lock them into going to war, but it's certainly a possibility depending on the president/Congress in power at the time. The US has moved carrier battle groups into that area in the past to deter any Chinese aggression. The US also has to maintain power projection to retain its own superpower status, which means it can't just sit back and let Russia/China do whatever they want. Its a giant balancing act, and there's absolutely no guarantees that China are just free to do whatever they want, otherwise they'd have done it a long time ago.
Sorry if I am being dense by why did UK send troops on the first place if the idea was to withdraw them if it's looking dangerous? Russia called the West's bluff?
They were just there to train in the use of equipment that had been sent. No troops from any western country afaik have been sent to Ukraine in a fighting capacity.
Ah Ok, that makes more sense. Feels like they may not have had much time to practice though!
Has Liz Truss sorted it yet?
Boris was bought and paid for by Russians so doubt we will do anything to impede them.
Boris was bought and paid for by Russians so doubt we will do anything to impede them.
Potential?
The US aren't going to war with China over Taiwan even if there was a law forcing them to, they would look at every single loopholes imaginable. It may have been realistic when China were weak and isolated but not in 2022, the US won't even sanction them economically for a sustained period of time. The only way the US and China go to war is if one of them directly attack the other for some strange reason, basically a scenario similar to Japan at Pearl Harbor.
One of the issues with these countries and one of the reason smaller nations shouldn't trust them when it comes to defense, is that they can hurt each others badly with conventional weapons and continental distance, that's in itself a deterrent. A conflict would extremely costly financially and in terms of human lives for little future gains. Almost all of what we see between them is posturing and created to twist someone else's arm.
I don't know whether there is an agreement or not, but if it exists you can be pretty certain the US will help Taiwan, unless there is an actual moron in the WH such as Trump. Nation states are as good as their adherence to the treaties they sign. If US doesn't help Taiwan then a lot of the smaller NATO members would start wondering what's the point of their participation. And it will be a signal to Russia as well.
They may indirectly help them but they won't go to war with China. And I will tell you the same thing with pretty much any nation that would require a long conflict with no certainty to win or to not have the US soil directly attacked. And it's actually a moron like Trump that my have done it, anyone that has a bit of sense will go with the diplomatic and indirect route.
So, in your opinion if Russia invades the baltics (nato countries) US won't go to war with Russia ?
I doubt JPRouve thinks this. Taiwan isn't a NATO-nation. There's no legal structure that says America must fight China when China attacks Taiwan. So I think JPRouve is talking about non-NATO nations specifically.
I was going to entertain the idea but no, I don't think they would. I think that they would use an obvious loophole which is that it is primarily the business of France and Germany since these countries are EU members and that they share that territory. Whether the US do anything would depend on what France and Germany do, want to do and more importantly can offer.
I'm very cynical on that topic because you just have to look at the Turkey, Cyprus and Greece conflict in the last 3-4 years, almost everyone acts as if nothing is happening and yes Turkey are a member of NATO but it tells you that the way they take decisions isn't based on what is right or wrong but what suits them, by them I'm talking about any nation not just the US.
Even the powerful nations stay away from actual conflict and tensions as much as they can and they will use any argument to do so. They have no issue with posturing and poking though.
No, he said explicitly that even if treaty exists , it won't be followed. Nato is a treaty as well.
Why even bring the Cyprus issue, which is between two nato member states? Completely different case. Regarding the rest, well your understanding of geopolitics is demonstrably wrong. I also feel that you wouldn't want to go to war with Germany over Poland in 39 if you were around then. Which was also due to a treaty btw.
No doubt, one needs to see an adversary’s weaponry in real time, not controlled exercises. No doubt Russia kept a keen eye on the two Iraq wars for the same reason.
Who is you? The US entered WW2 in 1941 not 1939.
France
You're painting things too black and white. The much more likely scenario is that the US forces a situation where an attack on Taiwan means China also having to attack the US. US warships near or in Taiwanese ports etc. You talk about how the US doesn't want a war with China and you're quite right, but do you genuinely think China want a war with the most powerful military on earth?
I dont know where this idea seems to have come from that Russia and China can just do whatever they like (well Trump played a part certainly) but its far from reality.