Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Boycott said:
Does the Russian government not have any agency of their own? Is their military hawkishness always and only a reaction to something even when they are clearly the instigators? If the West/NATO did nothing, said nothing, and Russia moved in as they did in Crimea or Georgia would they be blamed? Putin has positioned 100,000 troops on the border and assuming this is just gamesmanship it is strange how in this instance of calling people warmongers that he escapes blame. It's never his fault.
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But he does not escape blame at all does he? Your shouting whataboutery whilst making up arguments no one is making. You're accusing people of one sided views whilst conflating attempts at a two sided view with siding only with Russia and demanding focus on erm a one sided view.

Your arguments dont make a whole load of sense. To keep it very simple, Russia Bad, Invasion Bad. US/NATO motives, hypocrisy and record of telling the truth not all rosy. Now if you're incapable of reading anything of the latter without it being a love poem to the marxists that's on you. No one is implying equivalence.
 
ChaddyP said:
Would Putin look to invade other former Soviet states if he goes through an invasion of Ukraine and succeeded?

Finland next ?
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Seems unlikely. Finland doesn’t seem to be of any interest to him and he’s not going to invade countries that are already allied with him.

If we’ll continue speculating then Georgia is probably at the biggest risk — culturally & economically significant to Russia and also got strayed away from Putin’s sphere of influence.
 
harms said:
Seems unlikely. Finland doesn’t seem to be of any interest to him and he’s not going to invade countries that are already allied with him.

If we’ll continue speculating then Georgia is probably at the biggest risk — culturally & economically significant to Russia and also got strayed away from Putin’s sphere of influence.
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Thanks for taking the time to answer
 
Smores said:
Probably won't feel so tough when they're 150 miles out in international water and faced with several Russian frigates :lol:
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You'd think so.

But I'm from a village in West Cork where a lot of the boats will be setting out from. Don't underestimate these lads capacity for stubbornness!
 
Germany Sends Ukraine 5,000 Helmets To Defend Against Russian Invasion

BERLIN (Reuters)—Germany will supply 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine to help defend against a possible Russian invasion, it said on Wednesday—an offer Kyiv mayor and former world champion boxer Vitali Klitschko dismissed as "a joke" that left him "speechless".

Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said Berlin, which has faced growing criticism of its refusal to supply arms to Ukraine as other Western countries have done, was responding to a request from the government in Kyiv.

"I received a letter from the Ukrainian embassy, requesting support with military equipment, helmets to be precise," she told reporters. "We will supply Ukraine with 5,000 helmets as a clear signal: We are at your side."

Russia has massed tens of thousands of troops near its border with Ukraine but denies planning to attack its neighbour.

Ukraine‘s ambassador to Berlin Andriy Melnyk said the "symbolic gesture" was welcome but inadequate as his country needs equipment for hundreds of thousands of soldiers, of which helmets are not the most urgently needed part.

"We are glad that we can see at least the beginning of a change in thinking," he told Reuters. "However, what we need the most are defensive weapons."

While the United States and Britain have started sending more arms to Ukraine, German chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out sending "lethal weapons" for historical reasons.

"This is exactly how we will continue to work in this conflict. We are working towards reaching a peaceful solution to this conflict in the middle of Europe," Lambrecht said.

At the weekend, the defense minister had said Germany would also supply a field hospital to Ukraine.

But Klitschko, a former world heavyweight boxing champion who lived for years in Germany and is now mayor of the Ukrainian capital, was unimpressed with Wednesday's offer.

"The behaviour of the German government leaves me speechless. The defense ministry apparently hasn't realized that we are confronted with perfectly equipped Russian forces that can start another invasion of Ukraine at any time," he told Germany‘s largest tabloid Bild.

"What kind of support will Germany send next?" he joked. "Pillows?"
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Who says Germany as no sense of humor
 
Smores said:
But he does not escape blame at all does he? Your shouting whataboutery whilst making up arguments no one is making. You're accusing people of one sided views whilst conflating attempts at a two sided view with siding only with Russia and demanding focus on erm a one sided view.

Your arguments dont make a whole load of sense. To keep it very simple, Russia Bad, Invasion Bad. US/NATO motives, hypocrisy and record of telling the truth not all rosy. Now if you're incapable of reading anything of the latter without it being a love poem to the marxists that's on you. No one is implying equivalence.
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I don't think you've read the thread if you don't think no one has been implying equivalence. In my previous posts I too have criticised western hypocrisy so there's no issue of wanting western hegemony and military actions. You don't have to lecture on that. I live in the UK. I want UK military funding to be cut and redistributed to social welfare and domestic programs. That principle applies to the US and it should apply to Russia who have been spending more on their military than the UK. If you truly believe what you're saying there shouldn't need to be a qualifier about criticising Russia's actions without mentioning the west because Russia's actions on their own can be criticised on the merits in this instant and on this thread. That's the whole point about agency. That seems to be a concept if you read this thread that agency only is enacted by western nations.
 
ChaddyP said:
i know that Finland was never officially part of Soviet Union but i think we can both agree that even though i misspoke there is in fact a deep history between Russian empire/soviet union and Finland. My question still stands , being would he eventually look to go elsewhere after?
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I was joking. No idea on your second point. Imagine it depends how this plays out but I don't buy the expansionist Russia wanting to be the USSR again. They do want to control certain countries on their border but I'd guess their aims are very limited beyond the Ukraine and a few Baltic states where they already have interests.
 
harms said:
Seems unlikely. Finland doesn’t seem to be of any interest to him and he’s not going to invade countries that are already allied with him.

If we’ll continue speculating then Georgia is probably at the biggest risk — culturally & economically significant to Russia and also got strayed away from Putin’s sphere of influence.
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But they have been clever and keeping fairly low profile.
 
Foxbatt said:
But they have been clever and keeping fairly low profile.
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Georgia? I wouldn't call it clever, it's just that their politics are a horrible mess with things changing every day. Saakashvili is still in jail, I believe, after performing a Navalny-esque return last autumn.
 
rcoobc said:
Yeah but 14 years of drone technology and cyber-warfare since then
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nimic said:
Not just that, Russia's military is much stronger in basically every way than it was then. Ukraine doesn't stand a chance, even with western equipment. The only hope they have if it comes to war, is to make it too expensive for the Russian public.
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I'd argue Ukraine's military is better than Georgia's back then. They have been receiving some form of assistance since 2014 although not always as intensive as now.
 
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harms said:
Georgia? I wouldn't call it clever, it's just that their politics are a horrible mess with things changing every day. Saakashvili is still in jail, I believe, after performing a Navalny-esque return last autumn.
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Yes he is in jail or a hospital. Plus they don't like the Ukrainians. The difference is they hate the Russians a lot more.
 
Wonder how many subs we'll have prepped for that training exercise of the Russians. It's pretty much the most hostile thing they've done against the west for a long long time.
 
Gambit said:
Wonder how many subs we'll have prepped for that training exercise of the Russians. It's pretty much the most hostile thing they've done against the west for a long long time.
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Since the end of the USSR. It's odd that a lot of people see this as Russian domination. A lot of the leaders of the USSR were non Russian. Stalin, Krushchev, Breznev etc. If Krushchev was not such a drunkard non of this would have happened. I suppose you can say that with Yeltsin too.
 
Foxbatt said:
Since the end of the USSR. It's odd that a lot of people see this as Russian domination. A lot of the leaders of the USSR were non Russian. Stalin, Krushchev, Breznev etc. If Krushchev was not such a drunkard non of this would have happened. I suppose you can say that with Yeltsin too.
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What does this have to do with historic Russian/Soviet domination. The supposed training exercise is to protect the assets they have that will sever the cables off Ireland if it kicks off.
 
Foxbatt said:
Since the end of the USSR. It's odd that a lot of people see this as Russian domination. A lot of the leaders of the USSR were non Russian. Stalin, Krushchev, Breznev etc. If Krushchev was not such a drunkard non of this would have happened. I suppose you can say that with Yeltsin too.
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Khrushchev was a deceptively good politician who had used his village idiot image to his advantage throughout his entire career. If you're talking about Crimea, it was a well-calculated decision on his behalf that took in consideration both logistics & economics (water supply first and foremost) as well as for his own political advancement. The transfer of Crimea happened in 1954, a year after Stalin's death, during the middle of a very complicated power struggle between multiple potential successors and by pushing forward that decision Khrushchev had secured the support of Ukrainian Communist Party — which eventually lead to him assuming the role of General Secretary (even though originally he wasn't the favourite).

As for the Russian angle in USSR history it's certainly an interesting and complicated point to discuss, but even with non-Russian secretaries Russia still remained the main driving force in the Union. Which is not enough to fully equate it to USSR though.
 
Foxbatt said:
Since the end of the USSR. It's odd that a lot of people see this as Russian domination. A lot of the leaders of the USSR were non Russian. Stalin, Krushchev, Breznev etc. If Krushchev was not such a drunkard non of this would have happened. I suppose you can say that with Yeltsin too.
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Krushchev was from Kursk. A lot of leaders == two that were not Russian.

Also , what would have not happened if Krushchev "was not such a drunkard"?

EDIT:
From Harms' reply I saw you probably meant the transfer of Crimea.
 
The Firestarter said:
Krushchev was from Kursk. A lot of leaders == two that were not Russian.

Also , what would have not happened if Krushchev "was not such a drunkard"?

EDIT:
From Harms' reply I saw you probably meant the transfer of Crimea.
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Krushchev and Breznev probably were the Secretaries for half of the life of the USSR.

Yes transfer of Crimea. I guess no one knew at that time that USSR would collapse and that Ukraine would want to join NATO.
 
Foxbatt said:
Krushchev and Breznev probably were the Secretaries for half of the life of the USSR.

Yes transfer of Crimea. I guess no one knew at that time that USSR would collapse and that Ukraine would want to join NATO.
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The point is only Stalin and Breznev were not Russian. Kursk is in Russia.
 
Gambit said:
Wonder how many subs we'll have prepped for that training exercise of the Russians. It's pretty much the most hostile thing they've done against the west for a long long time.
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Ireland has none. The UK has a mere 6 attack submarines currently, of which 1 or 2 are likely in refit or repair. So not very many really, although we do have allies of course.
 
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ChaddyP said:
i know that Finland was never officially part of Soviet Union but i think we can both agree that even though i misspoke there is in fact a deep history between Russian empire/soviet union and Finland. My question still stands , being would he eventually look to go elsewhere after?
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It won't be Finland. First, why? They don't have any appeal to him. Second, it has impossible terrain with a thoroughly modern and well equipped Army, plus conscription of all adult males.

I still don't think he will invade Ukraine. It's too big and the people hate Russia. Invading would be possible but what then? You can't occupy a country like that.
 
ChaddyP said:
Thanks for taking the time to answer
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I don't think people have calculated the full effect of a successful invasion of Ukraine on the thinking of other Russia bordering countries especially those outside NATO.

By saying they will not commit combat troops because Ukraine isn't part of NATO the more successful and widescale Russia's move is, the more pressure to make a choice to join as you are fighting on your own if you don't.

Russia's action is a recruiting sergeant for NATO membership.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I don't think people have calculated the full effect of a successful invasion of Ukraine on the thinking of other Russia bordering countries especially those outside NATO.

By saying they will not commit combat troops because Ukraine isn't part of NATO the more successful and widescale Russia's move is, the more pressure to make a choice to join as you are fighting on your own if you don't.

Russia's action is a recruiting sergeant for NATO membership.
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Agree, I've stated previously I don't think going through with this invasion/escalation would help Putin now. Just the threat of it is re-inforcing the idea that NATO still needs to exist and pushin Ukraine closer to it, further away from Russia.
 
And a bit of good news for a change although don't put too much worth into this.

The deputy director of the Russian foreign ministry's Information and Press Department, Alexey Zaytsev has said that: "We have already repeatedly stated that our country does not intend to attack anyone. We consider even the thought of a war between our people to be unacceptable", which even affected standings of ruble, but probably the more important part of his message doesn't get translated/reported in English, at least I didn't see it. He had also said that there's been considerably less violations of cease fire agreement in the past few days compared to the first weeks of January and this, for me, is the more important bit — as the first part can be written off as a simple trick to make yourself appear as a victim of the potentially upcoming conflict but the latter one actually concedes that the Ukrainian side doesn't (from Russia's point of view) provoke as much aggression as it did previously.
 
TheReligion said:
If Germany and France find their bollocks in particular then it might be enough to deter Putin from pushing on.

Everyone needs to stick together and be singing from the same hymn sheet so to speak.
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What are folks hoping to get out of Germany in all this?

Just the Nord Stream sanctions?
 
TheReligion said:
If Germany and France find their bollocks in particular then it might be enough to deter Putin from pushing on.

Everyone needs to stick together and be singing from the same hymn sheet so to speak.
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Kind of weird to hear rhetoric like this out of someone who is usually measured.

France is asking what intelligence does UK and US have. It seems like US/UK are trying to whip up a storm that Ukrainian people and even Russians aren’t even aware of - emptying Embassies certainty raised eyebrows.
 
France is asking what intelligence does UK and US have. It seems like US/UK are trying to whip up a storm that Ukrainian people and even Russians aren’t even aware of - emptying Embassies certainty raised eyebrows.
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They all see the same intelligence. France doesn't agree that an immediate invasion is going to happen.
The funny thing is even Ukraine doesn't believe there is an immediate threat of invasion. It's the British and the Americans that are leading this.
 
Paxi said:
Kind of weird to hear rhetoric like this out of someone who is usually measured.

France is asking what intelligence does UK and US have. It seems like US/UK are trying to whip up a storm that Ukrainian people and even Russians aren’t even aware of - emptying Embassies certainty raised eyebrows.
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I think my point, even if I was a bit direct, is in order to effectively deal with Putin, Europe needs to stick together on the issue and be consistent.
 
Paxi said:
Kind of weird to hear rhetoric like this out of someone who is usually measured.

France is asking what intelligence does UK and US have. It seems like US/UK are trying to whip up a storm that Ukrainian people and even Russians aren’t even aware of - emptying Embassies certainty raised eyebrows.
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And yet when nothing happens it'll be the strong actions of the US and UK that saved the day no doubt :wenger:

I couldn't say if Biden is using this for political benefit but without any doubt some of Boris's public statements have been politically motivated.
 
Foxbatt said:
They all see the same intelligence. France doesn't agree that an immediate invasion is going to happen.
The funny thing is even Ukraine doesn't believe there is an immediate threat of invasion. It's the British and the Americans that are leading this.
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Maybe, but then why should we let Putin choose a schedule that suits him? It's not just about the threat against Ukraine, but Russian demands about the structure of NATO, which are unacceptable to the West.

If the US etc respond assertively in the early stages, it increases the price Putin has to pay and narrows his options. (I also think his demands re: NATO are so ridiculous they either aren't serious and are a smokescreen for his real objective, so we should respond forcefully and smoke out what he really wants, or they are serious and need an appropriately severe 'line in the sand' response.)

Given the wider point re: NATO, I think the US is doing the appropriate thing and France is wrong here.

Possibly France would also like the EU/France to be doing more of the running and doesn't like the way the US has cut Europe out, and there's a bit of that going on, which is understandable from their perspective.
 
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Not sure anything will happen but gut feel is if anything is to happen it will be after Putin and Xi see each other at the Olympics opening ceremony next week

My understanding is that in an ideal world you would make any major tank movements before the ground thaws as it would be much more difficult once traversing thawed ground ... so probably mid feb to late is the optimal time as its normally late feb it begins to thaw... perfect timing is get your tanks in place before the thaw and your opponent has to deal with worse conditions to get to you

https://weatherspark.com/y/100364/Average-Weather-in-Donetsk-Ukraine-Year-Round

Its a national holiday in Russia on 23rd Feb called "defender of the fatherland day"

so yeah if they get past that day with out incident perhaps it will calm down...
 
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