There are so many angles and takes which all lead to good and bad outcomes. The reality is there isn’t an easy solution to this. Sanctions are great, longer term, but do they do enough right now to make a difference? Each nations economies are so interconnected now too, not to mention things like energy supply, that sanctions have detrimental effects to your own economy too. And on top of all that, sanctions only work if there is a consistent global effort. Countries like China and what role they might play have a significant impact on how effective sanctions would be.
From a military standpoint, I really don’t think it matters if the US and EU have a much more stronger and advanced military than Russia, because sure in the long run that would be important, but war can’t be conceptualised in that way. A full on war ia really a group of much smaller battles. The point being Russia’s military is significant and in the short term would be able to inflict huge damage.
Then there’s escalation. We all find it unthinkable that nukes would ever be fired. But every move that escalated conflict increases the likelihood of someone taking that rash decision under pressure. We’ve seen that leaders are not infallible - as if we didn’t know that anyway - and in the melting pot of politics, arrogance, fear and brashness, consequences become more and more significant.
And yet, you can’t just stand by and let this happen. If Russia thought other super powers would react with force, I highly doubt they would have taken this step. But the more we lead that belief, the stronger that belief gets. The more dictators like Putin feel they can get away with. The more they push that line. And so it starts it’s Ukraine. But where does it stop? When do you say, it’s time to act with force. If not now, when? How many small steps does Putin need to take before it happens. And what happens then?
It’s a fricking impossible situation. I think the real question that people need to answer is what really is Putin’s end game? Not something any of us or maybe anyone would know.
And lost in all of this are the poor people in Ukraine. Whilst all other nations size up their next move, economic or military, trying to predict what will happen in the future and acting in a balanced way based on that, it leaves Ukraine in limbo and the people therein.
It’s pointless to say now, but we are now in an impossible situation with an impossible solution. The mistakes have all happened in the past, which allowed Putin to make this move and put everyone between a rock and a hard place. Can’t be undone now, though, and unfortunately we are now in a position of such heightened tension and emotion that every small move could, with the wrong triggers at the wrong time, have severe global consequences.
