Sanctions are the pause for thought. Being a pariah and risking a military defeat or a damning campaign. These are the things that give him pause for thought and he has gone ahead anyway.Yes, and this is why I am saying that the response needs to be stronger, and why the West needs to at least give the impression that they are prepared to go to war over this (but only if they are actually prepared to follow through on this). Putin's strategy works because people believe his threats. He threatens escalation and nuclear war, and nobody calls him out on it. He is the poker player who goes all-in every single round.
I am not a warmonger, and I do not want to see conflict, but as the old saying goes "If you want peace, you must prepare for war." - the Western strategy right now is simply too reminiscent of appeasement. When you overtly state "We are not prepared to go to war over x" (as has been the case with Ukraine since the start) then of course for Putin, that is absolutely a green light. You need to give him pause for thought, and threaten him with something that he may not have already factored in.
Yes, and this is why I am saying that the response needs to be stronger, and why the West needs to at least give the impression that they are prepared to go to war over this (but only if they are actually prepared to follow through on this). Putin's strategy works because people believe his threats. He threatens escalation and nuclear war, and nobody calls him out on it. He is the poker player who goes all-in every single round.
I am not a warmonger, and I do not want to see conflict, but as the old saying goes "If you want peace, you must prepare for war." - the Western strategy right now is simply too reminiscent of appeasement. When you overtly state "We are not prepared to go to war over x" (as has been the case with Ukraine since the start) then of course for Putin, that is absolutely a green light. You need to give him pause for thought, and threaten him with something that he may not have already factored in.
If it is indeed Germany, it would be pathetic. I would guess Deutsche Bank are probably deep in Russia loans.Yeah, because a load of EU banks have made loans to Russian companies and want to be repaid.
From the FT a few weeks ago:
It doesn't matter unless Russia is actually invaded. Which won't happen. They don't have enough modern equipment on reserve for these millions of people. They have antiquated Soviet stuff by the thousands.I'm far from an expert (just look at my username ffs) but if NATO rolled in then suddenly you have Putin telling Russians that the world is out to destroy them and suddenly that 900,000 Russian troops become millions.
The problem is on how to enforce a non-fly zone? Just shoot the Russian aircrafts (easily doable).
What would have been the consequences then?
100%, this thread has been a living proof of that.If it is indeed Germany, it would be pathetic. I would guess Deutsche Bank are probably deep in Russia loans.
Germany absolutely fecked European security and the worst thing is, they're too arrogant to admit it.
There’s a lot of people placing a lot of stock in and assuming that Putin would never attack a NATO country.Utter insanity. Every word.
I know that it was easy to enforce it. Heck, the US could send their Air Force there and win the battle in the sky. But that is the same as declaring war in Russia.Anti-air destroyers, SAM's based out of neighbouring allies and fighter patrols.
And yes, if it's legitimately breached then it should have been enforced. Him knowing the West was serious about that I honestly believe would have stopped this.
There’s a lot of people placing a lot of stock in and assuming that Putin would never attack a NATO country.
A lot of those same people thought Putin would never commence a full-scale invasion of Ukraine a few years, if not months ago.
I dunno. I understand that it would have been direct NATO on Russian conflict and you start to risk bad escalation. But if it had been announced and implemented months before, it would have posed the question back to Russians as far as whether they wanted to push the issue or not.The problem is on how to enforce a non-fly zone? Just shoot the Russian aircrafts (easily doable).
What would have been the consequences then?
I know that it was easy to enforce it. Heck, the US could send their Air Force there and win the battle in the sky. But that is the same as declaring war in Russia.
Russians are building bangladeshs first ever nuclear power plant at the moment, Bangladesh although a minnow internationally won't say shit either.Nor the Pakistanis
Even "nobody wants war"?Utter insanity. Every word.
Yes, the NFZ term is thrown around too casually. It is akin to declaring war. We might as well blockade the Black and Baltic seas at that point.I know that it was easy to enforce it. Heck, the US could send their Air Force there and win the battle in the sky. But that is the same as declaring war in Russia.
Russia's even too big for NATO to fully invade it's territory. In World War II, Hitler didn't even covered a small part of it while having best army in Europe.I have no idea about military strategy, but Ukraine on its own holding the country against the Russians is basically impossible, right? They will put up as much resistance as they can, but without a counter offensive (or the rest of the world enforcing crippling sanctions) the Russians can just bomb and siege every bit of conventional military resistance into submission?!
Article 5 (?) of NATO states that if one country is attacked, all of them are and at that point we're in the WW3 stage.This thread was made a more than a month ago, surely US intelligence services would have been aware of an incoming conflict in Ukraine for a few months as well?
I get that everyone wants to avoid nuclear warfare, but I was just thinking that basically now we are saying "we'll let you have Ukraine to avoid a bigger conflict" and we're just hoping for the best that Putin won't go any further than Ukraine. Even if he does, the NATO would come out of this looking pretty weak imo.
Doubt it has much to do about being sophisticated enough. Their position is obviously threatened if the country is modernized, he’s essentially a dictator and they’ve been pocketing billions...He’s very calculated
He's insane but he's not stupid. He knows that he couldn't win a conventional war against NATO, and that attacking a member state more or less ensures nuclear war, and ultimately the end of the world.
Holy cow
small man complex + power. Amazing what it can do to the world.
Quite effective the javelin as well.
Anti-air destroyers, SAM's based out of neighbouring allies and fighter patrols.
And yes, if it's legitimately breached then it should have been enforced. Him knowing the West was serious about that I honestly believe would have stopped this.
Reasonable response when Russia decided to mass troops and tanks on the Ukrainian border.Yes, the NFZ term is thrown around too casually. It is akin to declaring war. We might as well blockade the Black and Baltic seas at that point.
Yes, the NFZ term is thrown around too casually. It is akin to declaring war. We might as well blockade the Black and Baltic seas at that point.
I remember at the start of the pandemic in March 2020 boldly predicting that that was going to be the most world-shaping global event since WWII.I am not sure how people can be confident things will go back to normal.
We're not talking about some Western politician who talks a lot and does little. Putin and his cabal have the money and are insane enough to cross any red line.
And by bad for Russia, you mean bad for their people, right? Putin doesn't a give a feck about them.
Well he has been throwing his weight around for over 10 years.There’s a lot of people placing a lot of stock in and assuming that Putin would never attack a NATO country.
A lot of those same people thought Putin would never commence a full-scale invasion of Ukraine a few years, if not months ago.
I have no idea about military strategy, but Ukraine on its own holding the country against the Russians is basically impossible, right? They will put up as much resistance as they can, but without a counter offensive (or the rest of the world enforcing crippling sanctions) the Russians can just bomb and siege every bit of conventional military resistance into submission?!
What's Turkeys stance on this? Given Erdogan is abit of a megalomaniac himself
Erdogan condemned Russia’s aggression, and respects the territory of Ukraine. Nothing to suggest Turkey will have any other policy than that of NATO.What's Turkeys stance on this? Given Erdogan is abit of a megalomaniac himself
People need to understand this simple but crucial concept in this conflict: Any, any kind of use of military force by NATO in this conflict = nuclear war
So conventional NATO forces in Ukraine = nuclear war
No-fly zone by NATO = nuclear war
Why is Russia ready to go to nuclear war over Ukraine but not NATO? It's because Ukraine means much more to Russia than to NATO, not because NATO are cowards or because Putin is crazy. Vice versa, NATO is definitely ready to go to nuclear war over Denmark, but Russia won't.
Ukraine should have realized this and played its cards correctly after 2014, and not go all-in in its anti-Russia pro-NATO agenda before they even get enough guarantees for protection. Adding NATO membership to the constitution and start talking about nuclear arms while you have an ongoing conflict on your borders with Russia and without enough protection from NATO looks like a huge miscalculation and was bound to lead to this.
What's Turkeys stance on this? Given Erdogan is abit of a megalomaniac himself
Unfortunately, the previous huge pandemic in Europe coincided with WW1.I remember at the start of the pandemic in March 2020 boldly predicting that that was going to be the most world-shaping global event since WWII.
I didn’t expect something else to come along displace that from the top only two years later.
People need to understand this simple but crucial concept in this conflict: Any, any kind of use of military force by NATO in this conflict = nuclear war
So conventional NATO forces in Ukraine = nuclear war
No-fly zone by NATO = nuclear war
Why is Russia ready to go to nuclear war over Ukraine but not NATO? It's because Ukraine means much more to Russia than to NATO, not because NATO are cowards or because Putin is crazy. Vice versa, NATO is definitely ready to go to nuclear war over Denmark, but Russia won't.
Ukraine should have realized this and played its cards correctly after 2014, and not go all-in in its anti-Russia pro-NATO agenda before they even get enough guarantees for protection. Adding NATO membership to the constitution and start talking about nuclear arms while you have an ongoing conflict on your borders with Russia and without enough protection from NATO looks like a huge miscalculation and was bound to lead to this.
Sanctions are the pause for thought. Being a pariah and risking a military defeat or a damning campaign. These are the things that give him pause for thought and he has gone ahead anyway.
We know the West isn't prepared to kill itself for the Ukraine, and so does Russia. Pretending that we are won't help.
I very much doubt Russia has the military power to invade Europe. Ukraine will be tough enough for them, Poland is basically impossible. Also completely without any purpose other than ‘sending a message’ which I’m not sure is enough of a reason to start a global war for anyone.Nothing in what he wrote was insane.
What if the Russian army decides to keep going through Moldova, Romania, Poland?
They are like a suicide bomber who keeps taking more and more prisoners. How long do you let them keep going? Right until they're at your front door?
Because that's what happened in WW2. Appeasement only gets you so far and I absolutely hate war. I, however, also have heard stories of what it is to live under the influence of the USSR from my grandparents and through them about the suffering of my great-grandparents.
Putin needs to be stopped and the only way to do this is for him to believe there would be real consequences to his actions.
The way it is now, I can see him getting his pound of flesh from Ukraine, waiting out the mid-terms where the dis-United States will invariably vote the bought-for Republican party and then waiting out another presidency of Trump where he would be free to do whatever he wants. I won't even mention the Tories who have a bond stronger than marriage with their Russian donors.
As someone who comes from the parts where Russia might target next (and has already done so with disinformation), let me tell you, it's no fecking joke.
Someone smart tell me why they aren't a global big dick with those stats?I was sent this info about Ukraine by a friend today:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)
Ukraine is an important agricultural country:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine is an important industrialised country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).
I haven't fact checked it all, he had started though and what he checked was true.
Food for thought.
I wouldn't say that it's a fact. Now I do think that it would lead a generous use of WMD, people seem to forget that even conventional WMD are absolutely terrible. Simply going to a phosphorus bombs match would be awful.
That would not fit their narrative though? Putin is trying to paint this invasion as a war for self-preservation, not a war of conquest.If Ukraine Army had seen as much destruction as everyone was expecting they would be now, I think we would have seen a lot more footage of it broadcasted by Russia.
