Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...kraine-has-worsened-since-labour-won-election

^^ It's called 'quietly abandoning a lost cause', Zelenskiy, and all your false "friends and partners" are about to start doing it while conveniently pinning the blame on "f*cking Trump" for the mess they've left you in.

Meanwhile...

An ally of President-elect Donald Trump says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to gain back territory occupied by Russia.

Bryan Lanza, a strategist who worked on Trump's recent presidential campaign, told the BBC the incoming administration would ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his version of a "realistic vision for peace".

"And if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he's not serious," he said. "Crimea is gone".


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxrwr078v7o

F*cking Trump insisting Zelenskiy face reality rather than stringing him along for another few years by letting him pursue what they privately know is a completely delusional "Victory Plan".
 
I’m not a sociological service and I only get second-hand info from Ukraine but while people there are, obviously and understandably, tired of this devastating war, I doubt that many would support that decision. Don’t take my word as a gospel though.

Yet it all depends on Trump’s ultimatum — if it comes. If he’s really going to cut all the support (instead of, say, switching to a full loan system) and Europe doesn’t magically replace all of the missing funding… I fear that Ukraine will have to take it. To be fair there’s still a contingency plan for months to come and Biden is going to approve every possible funding he can before leaving. But long-term it’s not going to be enough — unless Russia will actually break down first somehow. And while there are many cracks, I doubt that it will before Ukraine does, sadly, the gap in available resources is too big*

* although empires and, especially autocracies, often collapse suddenly and almost instantaneously.

Fecking Trump.

This is the thing about having a dictator who doesn't need to worry about the next election, and controls his nations media. He can play the long game and eventually the political will in other countries will change.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...kraine-has-worsened-since-labour-won-election

^^ It's called 'quietly abandoning a lost cause', Zelenskiy, and all your false "friends and partners" are about to start doing it while conveniently pinning the blame on "f*cking Trump" for the mess they've left you in.

Meanwhile...

An ally of President-elect Donald Trump says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to gain back territory occupied by Russia.

Bryan Lanza, a strategist who worked on Trump's recent presidential campaign, told the BBC the incoming administration would ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his version of a "realistic vision for peace".

"And if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he's not serious," he said. "Crimea is gone".


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxrwr078v7o

F*cking Trump insisting Zelenskiy face reality rather than stringing him along for another few years by letting him pursue what they privately know is a completely delusional "Victory Plan".

Genuine question - and this is asked entirely in good faith:

How do you reconcile the wants and needs of the Ukrainian people (Western integration, path to ascension towards the EU) with any likely outcome of the war. Do you believe that Ukraine has the right to autonomy in making its own democratic decisions without greater powers pivoting it in one direction or the other?
 
By the time he leaves office the Biden administration will have had almost 3 years - 3 YEARS - to put Ukraine in something other than the extremely vulnerable and weak position it is going to be in when he goes. But predictably, what we now have on here is a page of "f*cking Trump!". Not "f*cking Biden, Blinken and Sullivan for having absolutely no strategy". No, it's "f*cking Trump" before we even have a concrete idea of what he's going to do (don't you just love how everyone in the mainstream media is suddenly demanding Trump present a coherent plan for Ukrainian victory having never once demanded it of Biden in THREE effing years? Trump's supposed to have a clear and workable plan before he even takes office while Biden's got away with 3 years of "FOR AS LONG AS IT TAKES! SLAVA UKRAINI!").

How about you all don't conveniently let Biden off the hook just yet. To be leaving Ukraine in such a vulnerable and desperate position (Simbo's delusional insanity notwithstanding) having had almost 3 years to figure out a strategy, with the financial and military backing of the entire Western world behind Ukraine, is kind of shameful, and Zelensky's increasingly annoyed tweets and public statements illustrate that he feels the same. I guess that time when Lloyd Austin smirked and openly lied about presenting a strategy to Congress isn't so funny anymore is it?

All these people (not here on this forum, I mean in the media) now fretting about Ukraine's fate, why are they not asking Biden and Sullivan: "out of interest, what was YOUR plan going forward, if you'd won? Was Kamala going to do the same thing of drip-feeding Ukraine just about what it needed to not collapse for years on end?"

It's incredibly annoying how Biden and Sullivan are going to get away with this. Ukraine's eventual loss needed to be firmly on THEIR record (and Harris', since she's vowed to continue the same 'Bleed Ukraine As Long As We Can' policy). THREE f*cking years and the entirety of the Western economic and military resources only to leave Ukraine's fate in the hands of a bunch of voters from Wisconsin and Michigan. Genius, Joe. Pure genius. But sure, "f*cking Trump" I guess.

But listen, all of you in here crying over the election, consider the silver lining for Ukraine: the World's Dumbest Political Operative (or as Hillary called him, a "once-in-generation intellect") Jake Sullivan will soon be gone, as will Anthony Blinken (playing Rocking in the Free World on his guitar in a Ukrainian bar while the country is being destroyed - but yeah, that clown Trump isn't going to take this issue seriously is he?) and Lloyd Austin. I know it's hard for you to believe this, because you think they're the good guys because they say "slava Ukraini" a lot, but believe me, Ukraine is better off without them.
I don’t like Biden and his administration one bit for a multitude of reasons. I don’t think they did everything they could to assure Ukraine’s victory (in fact, I know that they didn’t). Yet if Trump is going to follow through on his words (granted, that’s a big if), his actions are going to be wildly devastating.

No one’s asking a coherent victory plan for Ukraine from Trump and you know it. Not insisting on the peace capitulation deal would be a decent start for him. So yeah, feck Trump. He’s done enough to warrant that lack of trust.
 
I heard on the radio this morning that in the last month, Russia had been suffering its highest killed and injured numbers of the war - 1500 per day. And that Russia has had to increase its military budget to almost 40%. But of course Putin doesn't care about any of this. Just his own vanity project.

Edit.
Make Russia Great Again....
 
Alledgedly now 700,000 dead on the Russian side. That is just utterly horrific and complete madness.
 
I heard on the radio this morning that in the last month, Russia had been suffering its highest killed and injured numbers of the war - 1500 per day. And that Russia has had to increase its military budget to almost 40%. But of course Putin doesn't care about any of this. Just his own vanity project.

Edit.
Make Russia Great Again....
The 40% number is not an increase in the military budget… it’s the % of the entire government budget for 2025 that is allocated to military spending. That’s like 6,3% of the entire country’s GDP. Which is even more damning.
 
It may get uglier in Kursk.

The Russian military has assembled a force of 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, as it prepares to begin an assault aimed at reclaiming territory seized by Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials.
 
What are the chances that NK sends tens of thousands more troops?

I think that is pretty much guaranteed, what we see now is likely just the first batch and NK troops will be a permanent part of the war from here on (or until they have taken such heavy losses that Kim refuses to send more). Right now they are just being introduced slowly to the battlefield while issues regarding language barrier, logistic/transport, command structure, training etc is being worked out. And gauging Western response. I would not be surprised if next year we would see regularly 10.000 NK soldiers/month being sent over.
 
Trump signaled that he'd support a deal in which Russia keeps some territory. Ukraine was informed about the call.

 
I don’t like Biden and his administration one bit for a multitude of reasons. I don’t think they did everything they could to assure Ukraine’s victory (in fact, I know that they didn’t). Yet if Trump is going to follow through on his words (granted, that’s a big if), his actions are going to be wildly devastating.

No one’s asking a coherent victory plan for Ukraine from Trump and you know it. Not insisting on the peace capitulation deal would be a decent start for him. So yeah, feck Trump. He’s done enough to warrant that lack of trust.

"Wildly devastating" you say? And what would you call the situation in Ukraine right now after 3 years of Biden’s “for as long as it takes” policy? Have you taken a look at Ukraine recently? Towns and cities wiped off the map, 10 million Ukrainians have fled the country, millions more internally displaced, Ukraine’s economy and industry functionally destroyed, and the not insignificant matter of hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded Ukrainians. But it’s Trump who’s going to be “wildly destructive”?


If back in April 2022 you could have shown the Ukrainians a picture of what their country would look like in November 2024 they would not have made the decisions they made. The problem was that anyone who could see back then exactly what Ukraine would look like if the war was not stopped as soon as possible, and tried to warn them about it, was condemned for being a Russian bot. For the first 2 and a half years of this war the political-media elites were chanting ‘Ukraine is winning’ (see video at the end of this post) and any dissent to their narrative was denounced as ‘Russian talking points’ that aimed to reduce support for the war. Those who disagreed with NATO’s mantra that ‘weapons are the way to peace’ and instead suggested negotiations were quickly dismissed as puppets of the Kremlin who did not care about Ukrainians. Support for continued fighting in a war that cannot be won has been the only acceptable expression of empathy for Ukraine. Anything else got you the “havunt u eva hurd of NEVVUL CHAAYMBURLIN????” treatment by the #slavaukraini brigade.


Fast forward 2 and a half years and we see how the narrative is being shifted. What was ‘Russian propaganda’ yesterday is now suddenly the consensus of the collective elites. Ukraine can’t win, negotiations are necessary, Ukraine’s membership in NATO is a fantasy and victory for Ukraine can be defined not as reclaimed territory but as some kind of survival of the state. Christ even The Economist, one of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine, is now peddling the new narrative:


https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/10/29/ukraine-is-now-struggling-to-cling-on-not-to-win


Secondly, it’s good that you “don’t like Biden and his administration one bit” and I only wish you’d mentioned this earlier, that way this thread may have been something other than 1200 pages of “looooool I just read on Twitter that the russians lost 400,000 soldiers in 1 day trying to storm Avdiivka with a lug wrench and a set of golf clubs”, but I take note of what you’ve written there about why you don’t like him. You think he didn’t do everything he could to “assure Ukraine’s victory”. Do you see the implication? You’re not questioning the intention, and it’s not the overall ‘strategy’ you disagree with, it’s the fact that you just think mistakes were made within it. Ukrainian victory was their goal but they didn’t do enough to make it happen.


If you are correct then think about what this means. It means that the entirety of the American political and military classes did not see what to some of us has been absolutely f*cking obvious from the beginning. It means that given 3 years in which to strategise and marshal the entire combined military and economic resources of the Western world, THIS strategy of “make Zelenskiy periodically debase himself and his country by having to beg us to drip-feed Ukraine just about enough weapons to fight a war that we keep saying is in our own existential interests” was what they decided upon.


Unlike you, I prefer not to think of these people as irretrievably stupid. The explanation for why they’ve done what they’ve done is different. You dislike Biden because he “didn’t do enough to ensure Ukraine’s victory”. Dislike him instead because Ukraine’s victory has never been the plan. Some of us have been screaming and shouting this since long, long before the start of the invasion. Ukraine has been deliberately strung along and Zelenskiy has started to realise it (he again lashed out on twitter today at Europe for ‘inexplicably’ withholding their air defense systems).


But sure, “f*ck Trump” I guess. I stand by what I wrote. The next few months of this thread are going to be miserably prediсtable as people who never once dared to cast aspersions on Biden’s Ukraine strategy (“KREMLIN BOT!!!”) are now going to be poring over every single tabloid and twitter rumour about Trump’s. A pity they weren’t this concerned with a concrete strategy that ensures Ukraine’s survival during the last 2 and a half years, maybe then they wouldn’t have been complicit in the whole ‘manufacturing consent and demonising dissent’ political/media campaign that’s ultimately led to Ukraine’s functional destruction.


Here’s that video I mentioned. It’s 5 minutes of your time. Every single moron in this video is still in a job working as an “expert” for various branches of the mainstream media. Indeed, some of them such as Ben Hodges have been posted all over this thread as authorities. That's the thing about the punditry class, it doesn't matter how often they're wrong, they still never get fired because their job is not to deliver facts but a narrative.

 
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If back in April 2022 you could have shown the Ukrainians a picture of what their country would look in December 2024 they would not have made the decisions they made.
That’s the issue. We can’t really prove or disprove this hypothetical but I literally haven’t met any Ukrainian who would be willing to give up their independence (which, ultimately, was what Putin wanted) if the option was for this war to never happen. And you keep stripping Ukraine and Ukrainians of any subjectivity in the matter.
 
"Wildly devastating" you say? And what would you call the situation in Ukraine right now after 3 years of Biden’s “for as long as it takes” policy? Have you taken a look at Ukraine recently? Towns and cities wiped off the map, 10 million Ukrainians have fled the country, millions more internally displaced, Ukraine’s economy and industry functionally destroyed, and the not insignificant matter of hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded Ukrainians. But it’s Trump who’s going to be “wildly destructive”?


If back in April 2022 you could have shown the Ukrainians a picture of what their country would look in December 2024 they would not have made the decisions they made. The problem was that anyone who could see back then exactly what Ukraine would look like if the war was not stopped as soon as possible, and tried to warn them about it, was condemned for being a Russian bot. For the first 2 and a half years of this war the political-media elites were chanting ‘Ukraine is winning’ (see video at the end of this post) and any dissent to their narrative was denounced as ‘Russian talking points’ that aimed to reduce support for the war. Those who disagreed with NATO’s mantra that ‘weapons are the way to peace’ and instead suggested negotiations were quickly dismissed as puppets of the Kremlin who did not care about Ukrainians. Support for continued fighting in a war that cannot be won has been the only acceptable expression of empathy for Ukraine. Anything else got you the “havunt u eva hurd of NEVVUL CHAAYMBURLIN????” treatment by the #slavaukraini brigade.


Fast forward 2 and a half years and we see how the narrative is being shifted. What was ‘Russian propaganda’ yesterday is now suddenly the consensus of the collective elites. Ukraine can’t win, negotiations are necessary, Ukraine’s membership in NATO is a fantasy and victory for Ukraine can be defined not as reclaimed territory but as some kind of survival of the state. Christ even The Economist, one of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine, is now peddling the new narrative:


https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/10/29/ukraine-is-now-struggling-to-cling-on-not-to-win


Secondly, it’s good that you “don’t like Biden and his administration one bit” and I only wish you’d mentioned this earlier, that way this thread may have been something other than 1200 pages of “looooool I just read on Twitter that the russians lost 400,000 soldiers in 1 day trying to storm Avdiivka with a lug wrench and a set of golf clubs”, but I take note of what you’ve written there about why you don’t like him. You think he didn’t do everything he could to “assure Ukraine’s victory”. Do you see the implication? You’re not questioning the intention, and it’s not the overall ‘strategy’ you disagree with, it’s the fact that you just think mistakes were made within it. Ukrainian victory was their goal but they didn’t do enough to make it happen.


If you are correct then think about what this means. It means that the entirety of the American political and military classes did not see what to some of us has been absolutely f*cking obvious from the beginning. It means that given 3 years in which to strategise and marshal the entire combined military and economic resources of the Western world, THIS strategy of “make Zelenskiy periodically debase himself and his country by having to beg us to drip-feed Ukraine just about enough weapons to fight a war that we keep saying is in our own existential interests” was what they decided upon.


Unlike you, I prefer not to think of these people as irretrievably stupid. The explanation for why they’ve done what they’ve done is different. You dislike Biden because he “didn’t do enough to ensure Ukraine’s victory”. Dislike him instead because Ukraine’s victory has never been the plan. Some of us have been screaming and shouting this since long, long before the start of the invasion. Ukraine has been deliberately strung along and Zelenskiy has started to realise it (he again lashed out on twitter today at Europe for ‘inexplicably’ withholding their air defense systems).


But sure, “f*ck Trump” I guess. I stand by what I wrote. The next few months of this thread are going to be miserably prediсtable as people who never once dared to cast aspersions on Biden’s Ukraine strategy (“KREMLIN BOT!!!”) are now going to be poring over every single tabloid and twitter rumour about Trump’s. A pity they weren’t this concerned with a concrete strategy that ensures Ukraine’s survival during the last 2 and a half years, maybe then they wouldn’t have been complicit in the whole ‘manufacturing consent and demonising dissent’ political/media campaign that’s ultimately led to Ukraine’s functional detruction.


Here’s that video I mentioned. It’s 5 minutes of your time. Every single moron in this video is still in a job working as an “expert” for various branches of the mainstream media. Indeed, some of them such as Ben Hodges have been posted all over this thread as authorities. That's the thing about the punditry class, it doesn't matter how often they're wrong, they still never get fired because their job is not to deliver facts but a narrative.


What concessions should Ukraine have made in 2022 and do you think Putin was genuinely interested in a deal?

And what post-settlement policy should the West have had? If Ukraine gets no security guarantees and Russia conducts another invasion after some time, what do you think Western policy must be?
 
What concessions should Ukraine have made in 2022 and do you think Putin was genuinely interested in a deal?

And what post-settlement policy should the West have had? If Ukraine gets no security guarantees and Russia conducts another invasion after some time, what do you think Western policy must be?

It’s obvious Putin has always wanted to reclaim Ukraine as a part of the former Soviet empire and was willing to fabricate any reason necessary to invade. Therefore there’s nothing the Ukrainians could’ve done to mitigate it. Don’t fall for the concocted lies about nato expansion. Putin is simply a dictator doing things that dictators do. The world saw it in the 30s and are witnessing it in slow motion yet again. This time with a network of propagandists shilling on behalf of the Russian state in western social media.
 
It’s obvious Putin has always wanted to reclaim Ukraine as a part of the former Soviet empire and was willing to fabricate any reason necessary to invade. Therefore there’s nothing the Ukrainians could’ve done to mitigate it. Don’t fall for the concocted lies about nato expansion. Putin is simply a dictator doing things that dictators do. The world saw it in the 30s and are witnessing it in slow motion yet again. This time with a network of propagandists shilling on behalf of the Russian state in western social media.
I'm not falling for any argument, just trying to engage him in good faith. It's easy to say the things he says so in order to be more specific, I'm curious what he thinks what happened in the negotiations in 2022 and what Ukraine should have conceded.
 
Genuine question - and this is asked entirely in good faith:

How do you reconcile the wants and needs of the Ukrainian people (Western integration, path to ascension towards the EU) with any likely outcome of the war. Do you believe that Ukraine has the right to autonomy in making its own democratic decisions without greater powers pivoting it in one direction or the other?
And as for you.


My last interaction with you involved your wishing me physical injury for the crime of holding an opinion that you do not hold (and the first was your calling for me to be banned from the site for posting what turned out to be incontrovertible facts) so I'll accept your “good faith” offer as steady progress. I’m prepared to consider “I hope you get your head kicked in for peacefully expressing an opinion I don’t like” as a blip in the road on your journey to being a Western liberal.


To business. “Do you believe that any and every sovereign nation has the right to autonomy in making its own democratic decisions without greater powers pivoting it in one direction or the other?” (I’ve substituted out the word “Ukraine” for “any and every sovereign nation”).


Yes. Absolutely, 100% yes. And if you’d like to discuss the various occasions on which a sovereign nation has had their democracy overthrown by the Western powers you idolise when "sovereignty" and “agency” did not align with their interests during this post-war period of “the rules-based international order”, I’ll meet you in the geopolitics thread, lest it here give rise to the cries of “WHATABOUTISM!!!” (another favourite of the “NEVALL СHAMBUURLYN” crowd).


What you want for Ukraine has to apply to everyone. Ok? Everyone. Without any exception. Otherwise it is meaningless. And that includes not using your immense control of the global financial system to sanction the f*ck out of every country that ever dares go against your interests under the guise of "human rights abuses" (see the US sanctions on Nicaragua 4 days after they voted alongside Russia in the UN back in 2022, citing - you guessed it - "human rights abuses" - yay "agency!"). Don't think that immiserating innocent people via sanctions is somehow a more moral way of destroying a country.


To my mind there are 4 main reasons Ukraine/the West has lost this war. One of them is the failure to convince the rest of the non-Western world to voluntarily join you in “isolating” Russia. All these things you celebrate on here like ‘agency’ and 'sovereignty' and ‘autonomy from great power politics’ are fine things to cherish, but YOU are not the messenger to be bringing them to the world, ok? When you talk about respecting sovereignty and independence from great power struggles, vast parts of the world think to themselves “Do these people ever actually hear themselves”?


Now this is all obvious, because it’s abstract. To the practical question of Ukraine itself. Does Ukraine have the freedom to fully determine its own destiny? Realistically, no. No more than Cuba does (I notice the US again ignored the UN vote to end the embargo last month, amusingly on the same day the Indian foreign minister Jaishankar wryly noted America’s history of arming a military dictatorship on the doorstep of their “democratic partner’ India. You guys are ALL over the f*cking map in your "democracy" and "agency" messaging, do you ever realise that?).


Whatever the reasons or ‘true motivations’, Russia has said no NATO in Ukraine and that’s all there is to it. If Ukraine disagrees then you have to fight them and defeat them, it’s the ‘price’ you have to pay for getting what you want. Russia isn’t going to let it happen without that fight. Do I think the world would be better if everyone just let everyone else determine their own fates? Obviously, but it’s not the world we live in, and YOU (the West) have helped construct that world when it suited your interests, so don’t piss and whine about it now that it’s a bunch of white Europeans who are on the receiving end of it.


Always a pleasure.
 
And as for you.


My last interaction with you involved your wishing me physical injury for the crime of holding an opinion that you do not hold (and the first was your calling for me to be banned from the site for posting what turned out to be incontrovertible facts) so I'll accept your “good faith” offer as steady progress. I’m prepared to consider “I hope you get your head kicked in for peacefully expressing an opinion I don’t like” as a blip in the road on your journey to being a Western liberal.


To business. “Do you believe that any and every sovereign nation has the right to autonomy in making its own democratic decisions without greater powers pivoting it in one direction or the other?” (I’ve substituted out the word “Ukraine” for “any and every sovereign nation”).


Yes. Absolutely, 100% yes. And if you’d like to discuss the various occasions on which a sovereign nation has had their democracy overthrown by the Western powers you idolise when "sovereignty" and “agency” did not align with their interests during this post-war period of “the rules-based international order”, I’ll meet you in the geopolitics thread, lest it here give rise to the cries of “WHATABOUTISM!!!” (another favourite of the “NEVALL СHAMBUURLYN” crowd).


What you want for Ukraine has to apply to everyone. Ok? Everyone. Without any exception. Otherwise it is meaningless. And that includes not using your immense control of the global financial system to sanction the f*ck out of every country that ever dares go against your interests under the guise of "human rights abuses" (see the US sanctions on Nicaragua 4 days after they voted alongside Russia in the UN back in 2022, citing - you guessed it - "human rights abuses" - yay "agency!"). Don't think that immiserating innocent people via sanctions is somehow a more moral way of destroying a country.


To my mind there are 4 main reasons Ukraine/the West has lost this war. One of them is the failure to convince the rest of the non-Western world to voluntarily join you in “isolating” Russia. All these things you celebrate on here like ‘agency’ and 'sovereignty' and ‘autonomy from great power politics’ are fine things to cherish, but YOU are not the messenger to be bringing them to the world, ok? When you talk about respecting sovereignty and independence from great power struggles, vast parts of the world think to themselves “Do these people ever actually hear themselves”?


Now this is all obvious, because it’s abstract. To the practical question of Ukraine itself. Does Ukraine have the freedom to fully determine its own destiny? Realistically, no. No more than Cuba does (I notice the US again ignored the UN vote to end the embargo last month, amusingly on the same day the Indian foreign minister Jaishankar wryly noted America’s history of arming a military dictatorship on the doorstep of their “democratic partner’ India. You guys are ALL over the f*cking map in your "democracy" and "agency" messaging, do you ever realise that?).


Whatever the reasons or ‘true motivations’, Russia has said no NATO in Ukraine and that’s all there is to it. If Ukraine disagrees then you have to fight them and defeat them, it’s the ‘price’ you have to pay for getting what you want. Russia isn’t going to let it happen without that fight. Do I think the world would be better if everyone just let everyone else determine their own fates? Obviously, but it’s not the world we live in, and YOU (the West) have helped construct that world when it suited your interests, so don’t piss and whine about it now that it’s a bunch of white Europeans who are on the receiving end of it.


Always a pleasure.

Great post :+1:
 
And as for you.


My last interaction with you involved your wishing me physical injury for the crime of holding an opinion that you do not hold (and the first was your calling for me to be banned from the site for posting what turned out to be incontrovertible facts) so I'll accept your “good faith” offer as steady progress. I’m prepared to consider “I hope you get your head kicked in for peacefully expressing an opinion I don’t like” as a blip in the road on your journey to being a Western liberal.


To business. “Do you believe that any and every sovereign nation has the right to autonomy in making its own democratic decisions without greater powers pivoting it in one direction or the other?” (I’ve substituted out the word “Ukraine” for “any and every sovereign nation”).


Yes. Absolutely, 100% yes. And if you’d like to discuss the various occasions on which a sovereign nation has had their democracy overthrown by the Western powers you idolise when "sovereignty" and “agency” did not align with their interests during this post-war period of “the rules-based international order”, I’ll meet you in the geopolitics thread, lest it here give rise to the cries of “WHATABOUTISM!!!” (another favourite of the “NEVALL СHAMBUURLYN” crowd).


What you want for Ukraine has to apply to everyone. Ok? Everyone. Without any exception. Otherwise it is meaningless. And that includes not using your immense control of the global financial system to sanction the f*ck out of every country that ever dares go against your interests under the guise of "human rights abuses" (see the US sanctions on Nicaragua 4 days after they voted alongside Russia in the UN back in 2022, citing - you guessed it - "human rights abuses" - yay "agency!"). Don't think that immiserating innocent people via sanctions is somehow a more moral way of destroying a country.


To my mind there are 4 main reasons Ukraine/the West has lost this war. One of them is the failure to convince the rest of the non-Western world to voluntarily join you in “isolating” Russia. All these things you celebrate on here like ‘agency’ and 'sovereignty' and ‘autonomy from great power politics’ are fine things to cherish, but YOU are not the messenger to be bringing them to the world, ok? When you talk about respecting sovereignty and independence from great power struggles, vast parts of the world think to themselves “Do these people ever actually hear themselves”?


Now this is all obvious, because it’s abstract. To the practical question of Ukraine itself. Does Ukraine have the freedom to fully determine its own destiny? Realistically, no. No more than Cuba does (I notice the US again ignored the UN vote to end the embargo last month, amusingly on the same day the Indian foreign minister Jaishankar wryly noted America’s history of arming a military dictatorship on the doorstep of their “democratic partner’ India. You guys are ALL over the f*cking map in your "democracy" and "agency" messaging, do you ever realise that?).


Whatever the reasons or ‘true motivations’, Russia has said no NATO in Ukraine and that’s all there is to it. If Ukraine disagrees then you have to fight them and defeat them, it’s the ‘price’ you have to pay for getting what you want. Russia isn’t going to let it happen without that fight. Do I think the world would be better if everyone just let everyone else determine their own fates? Obviously, but it’s not the world we live in, and YOU (the West) have helped construct that world when it suited your interests, so don’t piss and whine about it now that it’s a bunch of white Europeans who are on the receiving end of it.


Always a pleasure.
Great post :+1:

I don't see how this is anything other than anti-western sentiments guised in the form of "For the betterment of Ukraine."

It actually makes me very sad that people take this view.

By, you, who are "you" referring to? Someone who served in a NATO military? Or a Ukrainian born person who has most of his family there?

You seem to live under this impression that I'm for the advancement of "might is right" when it comes to the West but somehow believe that Russa is not allowed to do the same. I'm incredibly critical of Western foreign policy in the middle east especially, having seen the absolute damage that it has done to groups of people up close and the sheer instability that it's put the region under. I've seen kids carcasses and had to analyse scorch marks of children suicide bombers during Mosul. Believe me when I say I'm not a big fan of what the West are doing.

But you are missing the point. I know the West has acted in its own interests and internationally done lots of things to justify that. But first and foremost, just because the West has done horrible things, does not give the right to Russia to do the same.

You talk about lectures, and hypocrisy and all that, but it isn't about that.

My country is being invaded, a family member of mine has died due to this war, and friends and family are all suffering.

Yet, and forgive me if this interpretation is wrong, you think I should be okay with Russia annexing my country because the West has done it to other countries? Why should I accept that point of view? What the West has periodically done to other nations has no bearing or relevance as a Ukrainian being invaded by Russia.
 
I don't see how this is anything other than anti-western sentiments guised in the form of "For the betterment of Ukraine."

It actually makes me very sad that people take this view.

By, you, who are "you" referring to? Someone who served in a NATO military? Or a Ukrainian born person who has most of his family there?

You seem to live under this impression that I'm for the advancement of "might is right" when it comes to the West but somehow believe that Russa is not allowed to do the same. I'm incredibly critical of Western foreign policy in the middle east especially, having seen the absolute damage that it has done to groups of people up close and the sheer instability that it's put the region under. I've seen kids carcasses and had to analyse scorch marks of children suicide bombers during Mosul. Believe me when I say I'm not a big fan of what the West are doing.

But you are missing the point. I know the West has acted in its own interests and internationally done lots of things to justify that. But first and foremost, just because the West has done horrible things, does not give the right to Russia to do the same.

You talk about lectures, and hypocrisy and all that, but it isn't about that.

My country is being invaded, a family member of mine has died due to this war, and friends and family are all suffering.

Yet, and forgive me if this interpretation is wrong, you think I should be okay with Russia annexing my country because the West has done it to other countries? Why should I accept that point of view? What the West has periodically done to other nations has no bearing or relevance as a Ukrainian being invaded by Russia.

Actual great post.
 
I don't see how this is anything other than anti-western sentiments guised in the form of "For the betterment of Ukraine."

It actually makes me very sad that people take this view.

By, you, who are "you" referring to? Someone who served in a NATO military? Or a Ukrainian born person who has most of his family there?

You seem to live under this impression that I'm for the advancement of "might is right" when it comes to the West but somehow believe that Russa is not allowed to do the same. I'm incredibly critical of Western foreign policy in the middle east especially, having seen the absolute damage that it has done to groups of people up close and the sheer instability that it's put the region under. I've seen kids carcasses and had to analyse scorch marks of children suicide bombers during Mosul. Believe me when I say I'm not a big fan of what the West are doing.

But you are missing the point. I know the West has acted in its own interests and internationally done lots of things to justify that. But first and foremost, just because the West has done horrible things, does not give the right to Russia to do the same.

You talk about lectures, and hypocrisy and all that, but it isn't about that.

My country is being invaded, a family member of mine has died due to this war, and friends and family are all suffering.

Yet, and forgive me if this interpretation is wrong, you think I should be okay with Russia annexing my country because the West has done it to other countries? Why should I accept that point of view? What the West has periodically done to other nations has no bearing or relevance as a Ukrainian being invaded by Russia.

It has since Ukraine wants to join NATO, which inflicted losses to innocent people in the former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Libya.
 
It has since Ukraine wants to join NATO, which inflicted losses to innocent people in the former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Libya.

Ukraine wanted to join NATO AFTER the initial invasion. It was always, always, about the EU.

Every single candidate who ran in the 2010 Ukrainian Election was anti-nato. Tymoshenko and Yanukovych BOTH ran on a platform of EU + No NATO.

Ukraine and NATO was a fecking self fulfilling prophecy. Without the annexation of Crimea, there was no sentiment of NATO anywhere in Ukraine.

Also, Libya I understand. Afghanistan, sort of understand. But Balkans? Seriously? Surely despite the obvious geopolitical interests, you wouldn't rather the Serb nationalists continue whatever the hell they were doing?!
 
Ukraine wanted to join NATO AFTER the initial invasion. It was always, always, about the EU.

Every single candidate who ran in the 2010 Ukrainian Election was anti-nato. Tymoshenko and Yanukovych BOTH ran on a platform of EU + No NATO.

Ukraine and NATO was a fecking self fulfilling prophecy. Without the annexation of Crimea, there was no sentiment of NATO anywhere in Ukraine.

By initial invasion you mean Crimea's annexation? Because as you know Petro Poroshenko was a strong proponent of Ukraine joining NATO
 
By initial invasion you mean Crimea's annexation? Because as you know Petro Poroshenko was a strong proponent of Ukraine joining NATO

Yes, read the last sentence I wrote above.

Poroshenko pivoted the country towards pro-NATO because they were so defenceless against the Russians in Donbass and in Crimea. AFU was an absolute shambles back then.
 
Also, Libya I understand. Afghanistan, sort of understand. But Balkans? Seriously? Surely despite the obvious geopolitical interests, you wouldn't rather the Serb nationalists continue whatever the hell they were doing?!

I have relatives in Serbia so I am as objective on the matter as you are on Ukraine ;)
 
I have relatives in Serbia so I am as objective on the matter as you are on Ukraine ;)

That makes sense.

But surely you can understand how Ukraine <> NATO was just a designated self fulfilled prophecy designed by Russia? Without Crimea and Donbass, there was no incentive or political will from anyone to even remotely consider joining NATO. The Ukrainian peoples voted against it multiple times.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10229626

2010 polling:


1542-1.gif
 
That makes sense.

But surely you can understand how Ukraine <> NATO was just a designated self fulfilled prophecy designed by Russia? Without Crimea and Donbass, there was no incentive or political will from anyone to even remotely consider joining NATO. The Ukrainian peoples voted against it multiple times.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10229626

2010 polling:


1542-1.gif

I don't think Putin annexed Crimea with a view to launch a full-scale invasion eight years later, no.

Crimea was not "designed" by Putin, there is widespread pro-Russian sentiment from locals in that region which led to its annexation.

Going back to your original complaint, my opinion is that if the West pushes people's right to "self-determination" in other parts of the world, it has to accept that Russia does the same where its interests are concerned.
 
I don't think Putin annexed Crimea with a view to launch a full-scale invasion eight years later, no.

Crimea was not "designed" by Putin, there is widespread pro-Russian sentiment from locals in that region which led to its annexation.

Going back to your original complaint, my opinion is that if the West pushes people's right to "self-determination" in other parts of the world, it has to accept that Russia does the same where its interests are concerned.

How has that got anything to do with what Ukrainians want?

It all seems to go back to this "Anti-West" viewpoint, without any any consideration for the wants needs and desires of the Ukrainian people.
 
How has that got anything to do with what Ukrainians want?

It all seems to go back to this "Anti-West" viewpoint, without any any consideration for the wants needs and desires of the Ukrainian people.

It has everything to do with it since Crimeans voted to join Russia.

This resulted in Ukrainians elsewhere becoming pro NATO, which is a factor in the 2022 invasion.
 
You know how this referendum looked like?

It is too easy to dismiss a referendum as unconstitutional when the outcome does not suit you. The reality is most Crimeans wanted to join Russia.
 
It is too easy to dismiss a referendum as unconstitutional when the outcome does not suit you. The reality is most Crimeans wanted to join Russia.

This is not true.

There were various polls conducted from 2004-2014 which all had the number hover between 30% to 48%.

97% is absurd. This level of consensus is unprecedented.

Also, if you want to have an independence referendum, do it through legal channels. Falklands managed to do it. Don't go into foreign sovereign land with soldiers, capture the governmental HQ, bribe Admirals to defect and then declare a referendum. How are you okay with this?
 
This is not true.

There were various polls conducted from 2004-2014 which all had the number hover between 30% to 48%.

97% is absurd. This level of consensus is unprecedented.

Also, if you want to have an independence referendum, do it through legal channels. Falklands managed to do it. Don't go into foreign sovereign land with soldiers, capture the governmental HQ, bribe Admirals to defect and then declare a referendum. How are you okay with this?

I have zero doubt that post Euromaidan a majority of Crimeans wanted to join Russia.
 
Putin also invaded the Donbas in 2014, let’s not get it twisted. He just invaded the rest of the country with significant force in 2022.