Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

AfonsoAlves said:
This is why I can never support the foreign policy of the left wing - to them war is the worst of all outcomes and that it should be stopped by any means necessary no matter what the other costs are. To me, that is stupid, aggravating and downright insulting.
Click to expand...

It also glosses over the incontrovertible reality that war remains the ultimate arbiter among nation states, especially on a planet without a world government or a legal apparatus to arbitrate disputes peacefully. In such a system, power will always override morality and win out.
 
I'm confused and surprised by the inaction over North Korean troops in Ukraine. It's crazy really, in part because of the escalatory nature of what is a foreign power from another continent now invading a European country (yes Russia was invading what it sees as it's own but still) and in part because although yes there are "only" 10,000 so far, apparently the logistics are set up to allow for far more potentially in the future, though that's currently anecdotal.

I'd be shocked if there wasn't a further escalation from the West in response, as there should be. We are edging closer every week to world war 3, and the fact a third country now has troops on the ground cannot be ignored.
 
Scholz (allegedly) proposes Finlandization of Ukraine. Finland's ambassador in Berlin not a fan.

Notably, Finland's ambassador in Berlin, Kai Sauer, speaks up to oppose the idea: “It is not in our interest to restore any artificial spheres of interest”, he told me.

We are "obliged to respect the freedom of choice" of Ukraine, "as well as its territorial integrity."
Click to expand...

 
GazTheLegend said:
I'm confused and surprised by the inaction over North Korean troops in Ukraine. It's crazy really, in part because of the escalatory nature of what is a foreign power from another continent now invading a European country (yes Russia was invading what it sees as it's own but still) and in part because although yes there are "only" 10,000 so far, apparently the logistics are set up to allow for far more potentially in the future, though that's currently anecdotal.

I'd be shocked if there wasn't a further escalation from the West in response, as there should be. We are edging closer every week to world war 3, and the fact a third country now has troops on the ground cannot be ignored.
Click to expand...

I think part of the lack of response is because how close we are to the US elections. They don't want to do anything right now that can be seen as escalation, or acknowledge escalation from Russia. Talking about WW3 only helps Trump - he'd get this all sorted out ofcourse on day 1 with a peace deal.

Hopefully once the election results will be announced, regardless of outcome, Biden can give a stronger response and lift some restrictions on Ukraines use of long range attacks with Western weapons on Russia (absurd to have those restrictions to begin with). I guess we'll know in a few days.
 
Mavs said:
I think part of the lack of response is because how close we are to the US elections. They don't want to do anything right now that can be seen as escalation, or acknowledge escalation from Russia. Talking about WW3 only helps Trump - he'd get this all sorted out ofcourse on day 1 with a peace deal.

Hopefully once the election results will be announced, regardless of outcome, Biden can give a stronger response and lift some restrictions on Ukraines use of long range attacks with Western weapons on Russia (absurd to have those restrictions to begin with). I guess we'll know in a few days.
Click to expand...

That's the hope. Biden is already a lame duck but won't want to knee cap Harris if she wins. If Trump wins, Biden will be incentivized to front load as much Ukraine support as he can before leaving office.
 
Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.
Click to expand...

 
Aside from money, North Korea also alleged to receive food assistance from Russia.

 
West turned blind eye on Kakhovka dam destruction. I'd actually be surprised if they didn't have a weak response towards NK troops in Ukraine.
 
GazTheLegend said:
I'm confused and surprised by the inaction over North Korean troops in Ukraine. It's crazy really, in part because of the escalatory nature of what is a foreign power from another continent now invading a European country (yes Russia was invading what it sees as it's own but still) and in part because although yes there are "only" 10,000 so far, apparently the logistics are set up to allow for far more potentially in the future, though that's currently anecdotal.

I'd be shocked if there wasn't a further escalation from the West in response, as there should be. We are edging closer every week to world war 3, and the fact a third country now has troops on the ground cannot be ignored.
Click to expand...

This is how it is. North Korea is declaring a defacto war on Ukraine, so Ukraine can feel free to retaliate against N.Korea. The problem is that they can.

If US and Europe puts boots on the ground, can be seen as a declaration of war against Russia, specially if they attack russian soil. And if you declare war on Russia, you may pay consequences. Imagine receive bombs in Paris, London or Rome how would fair.

Unfortunately, the N.Korean situation is nothing that the west can respond to as it is already an isolated and rogue state. That will become even more dangerous because they are not lending 10k of soldiers for free but most likely for resources and military technology advancement
 
4bars said:
This is how it is. North Korea is declaring a defacto war on Ukraine, so Ukraine can feel free to retaliate against N.Korea. The problem is that they can.

If US and Europe puts boots on the ground, can be seen as a declaration of war against Russia, specially if they attack russian soil. And if you declare war on Russia, you may pay consequences. Imagine receive bombs in Paris, London or Rome how would fair.

Unfortunately, the N.Korean situation is nothing that the west can respond to as it is already an isolated and rogue state. That will become even more dangerous because they are not lending 10k of soldiers for free but most likely for resources and military technology advancement
Click to expand...
The point being that it's not 'just' going to be 10k of soldiers.

By all accounts, Ukraine could wipe out 10k NK soldiers, another 10k soldiers could be sent and then the claim can be there are "only" 10k soldiers on the ground again a second time. And a third, and a fourth, and a 10th. 10k troops deliberately doesn't sound a lot. 100,000 does, and is.

Maybe the US and Europe can't put boots on the ground for Ukraine, but can a third party then send troops and de facto align themselves with the Ukrainians? Kenya isn't in NATO. Can the Kenyans be allowed to intercede in the same way? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024...intervene-in-haiti-and-how-is-the-us-involved

It sounds ridiculous but the same game Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un are playing can be played right back at them too. And "mercenary companies" can be enlisted to give manpower in the same way that Wagner Group wasn't. Blackwater are already there, etc. This will escalate and there will be troops of all sorts of flags flying by the time this insane "special operation" draws to a close.

And if you declare war on Russia, you may pay consequences. Imagine receive bombs in Paris, London or Rome how would fair.
Click to expand...
Russia's entire armed service would be -annihilated- in a conventional war, look how pathetic their navy has shown to be. They are a regional power at best. The ONLY thing saving them from being completely trashed -right now- is their nuclear capability, and the threat they pose in asymmetric warfare as what amounts to the biggest, dumbest mafia state on planet Earth. And how can you trust the word of people who lie as often as they draw breath, so it's not like you can propose a truce or treaty that would be broken as soon as it was convenient.

It's a dangerous and idiotic situation to be in, but here we are
 
GazTheLegend said:
The point being that it's not 'just' going to be 10k of soldiers.

By all accounts, Ukraine could wipe out 10k NK soldiers, another 10k soldiers could be sent and then the claim can be there are "only" 10k soldiers on the ground again a second time. And a third, and a fourth, and a 10th. 10k troops deliberately doesn't sound a lot. 100,000 does, and is.

Maybe the US and Europe can't put boots on the ground for Ukraine, but can a third party then send troops and de facto align themselves with the Ukrainians? Kenya isn't in NATO. Can the Kenyans be allowed to intercede in the same way? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024...intervene-in-haiti-and-how-is-the-us-involved

It sounds ridiculous but the same game Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un are playing can be played right back at them too. And "mercenary companies" can be enlisted to give manpower in the same way that Wagner Group wasn't. Blackwater are already there, etc. This will escalate and there will be troops of all sorts of flags flying by the time this insane "special operation" draws to a close.


Russia's entire armed service would be -annihilated- in a conventional war, look how pathetic their navy has shown to be. They are a regional power at best. The ONLY thing saving them from being completely trashed -right now- is their nuclear capability, and the threat they pose in asymmetric warfare as what amounts to the biggest, dumbest mafia state on planet Earth. And how can you trust the word of people who lie as often as they draw breath, so it's not like you can propose a truce or treaty that would be broken as soon as it was convenient.

It's a dangerous and idiotic situation to be in, but here we are
Click to expand...

Every country can do whatever they like accepting the consequence and risk/benefit analisis and north korea did and russia too.

Kenya could do the same. And the west is doing the same


Nkorea knows it will not be punsihed for it as ia already being punished. And he benefits of russian economic help and military technology advances (last misile tests seems showing that). Also, so far they are in russian sovereign land so russian can do as they please there.

Kenya could do the same for ukraine, if their risk/analysis would come positive
 
Pintu said:
How relevant is this when China is still bankrolling them?

We should be providing Ukraine with all the weapons they need and with no restrictions… But it seems we can’t risk it, because Russia might help the houthis attack Israel and disturb the holy genocide we all have to support. As long as Netanyahu’s unquestionable right to commit genocide takes priority we can’t really help Ukraine.


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/us/politics/russia-houthis-weapons.html
Click to expand...
They're not. At the moment they're using Russia's desperate situation to get natural resources at insane discounts and to boost their own economy by substituting most of the previously Western imports. I'm pretty sure that they're actually gaining money on this overall.
 
GazTheLegend said:
I'm confused and surprised by the inaction over North Korean troops in Ukraine. It's crazy really, in part because of the escalatory nature of what is a foreign power from another continent now invading a European country (yes Russia was invading what it sees as it's own but still) and in part because although yes there are "only" 10,000 so far, apparently the logistics are set up to allow for far more potentially in the future, though that's currently anecdotal.

I'd be shocked if there wasn't a further escalation from the West in response, as there should be. We are edging closer every week to world war 3, and the fact a third country now has troops on the ground cannot be ignored.
Click to expand...
I would imagine that them not actually being in Ukraine — as per reports — also influences the matter? As far as I know, they've deployed North Korean soldiers in Kursk, which is an internationally recognized Russian territory (not like Crimea or Donetsk/Lughansk). Yes it's a complete technicality since it's still the same conflict that Russia started but I'd imagine that it can be important for Western politicians.
 
harms said:
I would imagine that them not actually being in Ukraine — as per reports — also influences the matter? As far as I know, they've deployed North Korean soldiers in Kursk, which is an internationally recognized Russian territory (not like Crimea or Donetsk/Lughansk). Yes it's a complete technicality since it's still the same conflict that Russia started but I'd imagine that it can be important for Western politicians.
Click to expand...

This, plus I don't think it can really be responded to until they are documented as actually doing anything. Yes, its fairly obvious why they are in Russia, but until they are actually documented as entering the war against Ukraine through action, its not certain.
 
What happens when a country knows its going to run out of cash?

 
There won't be any option but for Ukraine to give up land for a "peace deal", at this rate.
 
Morty_ said:
There won't be any option but for Ukraine to give up land for a "peace deal", at this rate.
Click to expand...
No chance of that happening, at least not any time soon. With ZERO help, Ukraine would still fight on, the other option is giving up on their country and their people to be slaves under Russian rule... its not an option.

Russia is desperate, more so than Ukraine right now imo, we're seeing that on the front these last couple months, they've been throwing unsustainable levels of men and material to their doom lately for scrap of land that don't mean a whole lot strategically, but its enough to convince the world they are winning. The economy is their biggest worry, once that reaches breaking point it doesn't matter what manpower or refurbished bmp's they still have left. Cash reserves are soon dry and their bond market is fecked, they can't raise any funds. There's a few other options they can exhaust to shelter the people from the reality, but inevitably they'll have to open up the money printing taps, inflation becomes hyper inflation, then the people of Moscow, St. Pete start suffering. That's when it becomes inevitable to those surrounding Putin that it can't go on.

Trump is their lifeline, we'll see what happens. Putin won't want to wait until January but it'll effect his plans straight away, so I expect to see something change this next week. I don't know if Trump will be enough for them, even if sanctions are lifted its not like the west is going to resume trade. I'm more worried about Russia being able to sell Trump favours to China or wherever.

Europe I hope will act fast to put plans in place, collectively, to ramp up support, it has to be collectively. I have NO DOUBT however, we are going to have to suffer through months of bullshit where certain leaders instead try pandering to Trump, to "convince" him continuing to support Ukraine is the right thing to do. Listening to Boris last night convinced me of that, on one side he's as strong as it gets on supporting Ukraine, on the other he's trying to convince us that Trump supports Ukraine because he was the first to sell Javelins.... That they weren't allowed to use, had to be stored in western Ukraine and were just used to try and bribe Zelensky with and lock him in a corruption scandal to have influence over him. Fecking cretin. Scholz etc are going to be a nightmare.

Biden... Time to shine lad, you're about to lose a war (on the US) and are not long for this world, two months to leave an impression...

Zelensky, has been very shrewd with his dealings with Trump up to now, trying to build a relationship. It won't help, but god loves a trier.
 
Simbo said:
No chance of that happening, at least not any time soon. With ZERO help, Ukraine would still fight on, the other option is giving up on their country and their people to be slaves under Russian rule... its not an option.

Russia is desperate, more so than Ukraine right now imo, we're seeing that on the front these last couple months, they've been throwing unsustainable levels of men and material to their doom lately for scrap of land that don't mean a whole lot strategically, but its enough to convince the world they are winning. The economy is their biggest worry, once that reaches breaking point it doesn't matter what manpower or refurbished bmp's they still have left. Cash reserves are soon dry and their bond market is fecked, they can't raise any funds. There's a few other options they can exhaust to shelter the people from the reality, but inevitably they'll have to open up the money printing taps, inflation becomes hyper inflation, then the people of Moscow, St. Pete start suffering. That's when it becomes inevitable to those surrounding Putin that it can't go on.

Trump is their lifeline, we'll see what happens. Putin won't want to wait until January but it'll effect his plans straight away, so I expect to see something change this next week. I don't know if Trump will be enough for them, even if sanctions are lifted its not like the west is going to resume trade. I'm more worried about Russia being able to sell Trump favours to China or wherever.

Europe I hope will act fast to put plans in place, collectively, to ramp up support, it has to be collectively. I have NO DOUBT however, we are going to have to suffer through months of bullshit where certain leaders instead try pandering to Trump, to "convince" him continuing to support Ukraine is the right thing to do. Listening to Boris last night convinced me of that, on one side he's as strong as it gets on supporting Ukraine, on the other he's trying to convince us that Trump supports Ukraine because he was the first to sell Javelins.... That they weren't allowed to use, had to be stored in western Ukraine and were just used to try and bribe Zelensky with and lock him in a corruption scandal to have influence over him. Fecking cretin. Scholz etc are going to be a nightmare.

Biden... Time to shine lad, you're about to lose a war (on the US) and are not long for this world, two months to leave an impression...

Zelensky, has been very shrewd with his dealings with Trump up to now, trying to build a relationship. It won't help, but god loves a trier.
Click to expand...
I think that take is over-optimistic unfortunately. At some point Ukraine simply cannot afford to sacrifice more men. The question has been whether that point would be reached before the Russian economy collapses. If Harris had won last night, then I would have been reasonably confident that Ukraine might win that race but now I am fairly sure that Russia can keep the financial plates spinning until January when Trump will lift the pressure. I have no faith in Trump doing anything other than pulling the plug on Ukraine.

You talk about it being Biden’s turn to shine over the next few months. In the medium to longer term, it’s time for Europe (including UK) to grow up and start standing on its own two feet again after 80 years relying on the US security umbrella. It’s now clear that the circumstances giving rise to the victory of Trump in 2016 were not an aberration but rather are built into the US body politic. Europe’s population, wealth and technological expertise is much superior to Russia’s and so the real question is whether there is the political will and leadership to make the case for moving the dial on the guns v butter equation.
 
Simbo said:
No chance of that happening, at least not any time soon. With ZERO help, Ukraine would still fight on, the other option is giving up on their country and their people to be slaves under Russian rule... its not an option.

Russia is desperate, more so than Ukraine right now imo, we're seeing that on the front these last couple months, they've been throwing unsustainable levels of men and material to their doom lately for scrap of land that don't mean a whole lot strategically, but its enough to convince the world they are winning. The economy is their biggest worry, once that reaches breaking point it doesn't matter what manpower or refurbished bmp's they still have left. Cash reserves are soon dry and their bond market is fecked, they can't raise any funds. There's a few other options they can exhaust to shelter the people from the reality, but inevitably they'll have to open up the money printing taps, inflation becomes hyper inflation, then the people of Moscow, St. Pete start suffering. That's when it becomes inevitable to those surrounding Putin that it can't go on.

Trump is their lifeline, we'll see what happens. Putin won't want to wait until January but it'll effect his plans straight away, so I expect to see something change this next week. I don't know if Trump will be enough for them, even if sanctions are lifted its not like the west is going to resume trade. I'm more worried about Russia being able to sell Trump favours to China or wherever.

Europe I hope will act fast to put plans in place, collectively, to ramp up support, it has to be collectively. I have NO DOUBT however, we are going to have to suffer through months of bullshit where certain leaders instead try pandering to Trump, to "convince" him continuing to support Ukraine is the right thing to do. Listening to Boris last night convinced me of that, on one side he's as strong as it gets on supporting Ukraine, on the other he's trying to convince us that Trump supports Ukraine because he was the first to sell Javelins.... That they weren't allowed to use, had to be stored in western Ukraine and were just used to try and bribe Zelensky with and lock him in a corruption scandal to have influence over him. Fecking cretin. Scholz etc are going to be a nightmare.

Biden... Time to shine lad, you're about to lose a war (on the US) and are not long for this world, two months to leave an impression...

Zelensky, has been very shrewd with his dealings with Trump up to now, trying to build a relationship. It won't help, but god loves a trier.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, if the US stops military support, I think Ukraine is essentially done on the battlefield. We already saw it happen this year when Avdiika was lost and Russia gained territory in Kharkiv, after republicans stalled military aid to Ukraine for months. Europe on its own does not have enough military resources to donate to Ukraine to make a difference. Like @MoskvaRed said, Russia can hold on economically until January and will also keep gaining more territory in Ukraine and Kursk until then.

I think you are really underestimating the manpower problems that Ukraine is facing. They're having a very hard time recruiting, noone wants to go fight because even now they lack weapons and casualty rates are extremely high. Russia can still mobilize more troops than Ukraine and potentially have a steady stream of NK troops to supplement their losses.

I also think companies will quickly go back to do business with Russia, if sanctions are lifted. Once there is a peace deal and Russia claims they got all they want, companies will start returning to Russia. Slowly at first but give it a year or two max and they'll all be back.

Biden and other allies had close to 3 years to shine, and while their support has ofcourse been invaluable in letting Ukraine fight and maintain their sovereignity, Ukraine is now the backfoot on the battlefield, infrastructure in ruins, devastation to the population, and little hope for the future other than further Russian aggression in 5-10 years as there will be no security guarantees for them, let alone NATO. Other than Trump declaring that Russia has promised not to attack again.
 
MoskvaRed said:
I think that take is over-optimistic unfortunately. At some point Ukraine simply cannot afford to sacrifice more men. The question has been whether that point would be reached before the Russian economy collapses. If Harris had won last night, then I would have been reasonably confident that Ukraine might win that race but now I am fairly sure that Russia can keep the financial plates spinning until January when Trump will lift the pressure. I have no faith in Trump doing anything other than pulling the plug on Ukraine.

You talk about it being Biden’s turn to shine over the next few months. In the medium to longer term, it’s time for Europe (including UK) to grow up and start standing on its own two feet again after 80 years relying on the US security umbrella. It’s now clear that the circumstances giving rise to the victory of Trump in 2016 were not an aberration but rather are built into the US body politic. Europe’s population, wealth and technological expertise is much superior to Russia’s and so the real question is whether there is the political will and leadership to make the case for moving the dial on the guns v butter equation.
Click to expand...
I think you are right, plenty on here have been talking about a Russian collapse every passing year but it never materialises. A lot of these predictions feel a lot like the US election thread.
 
Simbo said:
No chance of that happening, at least not any time soon. With ZERO help, Ukraine would still fight on, the other option is giving up on their country and their people to be slaves under Russian rule... its not an option.

Russia is desperate, more so than Ukraine right now imo, we're seeing that on the front these last couple months, they've been throwing unsustainable levels of men and material to their doom lately for scrap of land that don't mean a whole lot strategically, but its enough to convince the world they are winning. The economy is their biggest worry, once that reaches breaking point it doesn't matter what manpower or refurbished bmp's they still have left. Cash reserves are soon dry and their bond market is fecked, they can't raise any funds. There's a few other options they can exhaust to shelter the people from the reality, but inevitably they'll have to open up the money printing taps, inflation becomes hyper inflation, then the people of Moscow, St. Pete start suffering. That's when it becomes inevitable to those surrounding Putin that it can't go on.

Trump is their lifeline, we'll see what happens. Putin won't want to wait until January but it'll effect his plans straight away, so I expect to see something change this next week. I don't know if Trump will be enough for them, even if sanctions are lifted its not like the west is going to resume trade. I'm more worried about Russia being able to sell Trump favours to China or wherever.

Europe I hope will act fast to put plans in place, collectively, to ramp up support, it has to be collectively. I have NO DOUBT however, we are going to have to suffer through months of bullshit where certain leaders instead try pandering to Trump, to "convince" him continuing to support Ukraine is the right thing to do. Listening to Boris last night convinced me of that, on one side he's as strong as it gets on supporting Ukraine, on the other he's trying to convince us that Trump supports Ukraine because he was the first to sell Javelins.... That they weren't allowed to use, had to be stored in western Ukraine and were just used to try and bribe Zelensky with and lock him in a corruption scandal to have influence over him. Fecking cretin. Scholz etc are going to be a nightmare.

Biden... Time to shine lad, you're about to lose a war (on the US) and are not long for this world, two months to leave an impression...

Zelensky, has been very shrewd with his dealings with Trump up to now, trying to build a relationship. It won't help, but god loves a trier.
Click to expand...
Its not just thier capacity to fight. Even if they win they need to support from the West to rebuild. They need to join Nato. etc Trump can make them suffer in so many ways that even winning will be a loss. Unless they think they can hold out for 4 years and hope for a new Presidency or that other Western Countries have their back. But either way Trump will be pressuring them in more ways then not sending military equipment.
 
Ukraine is probably fecked now, let’s be honest.

Europe should step
up, we will see if they will.
 
NLunited said:
Ukraine is probably fecked now, let’s be honest.

Europe should step
up, we will see if they will.
Click to expand...
There's no way Europe fills in the gap unless it switches to war economy, which won't happen, and even then it would take years to get it up to speed. Years that Ukraine obviously doesn't have.

Ukraine is most likely done in a matter of months if the US pulls out.
 
Last edited:
matherto said:
Who in Kyiv sees opportunities in this?
Click to expand...

Probably not many, but they can't just say that thats it, we're done. They'll have to do what they can to get Trumps support, and if they do, he could very well go in much harder on Russia than Biden has. If anyone were to support sending US/Nato troops to Ukraine, specially in response to NK soldiers on the battlefield it would be him. Harris would have likely just kept similar level of support. So in that sense there is an opportunity, but the likelihood is near zero and any hope or positivity that is being projected from Kyiv is likely just to try to keep up morale for the time being.

I mean this must be the worst news for the frontline soldiers to get. They're already retreating and conceding territory daily, and if all aid will be cut off in January, the will to fight on in these conditions has surely been reduced.
 
That_Bloke said:
Ukraine is most likely done in a matter of months if the US pulls out.
Click to expand...
Doubt it. Peace deal contingent upon many factors if we assume Trump does what he says (and a large part of his mandate, among his hard base, comes from this).

1. Russian territorial claims. I don't expect Russia to cede anything to the east of Crimea now whereas that was, imo, entirely possible two years ago when peace negotiations were being touted briefly. But Trump may get that which is to the West.
2. Security Agreement which becomes a trade agreement. The unfreezing of Russian assets in return for quid pro quo elsewhere (territorial most likely). Also, full access to the American market and negotiations regarding American access to the Russian market. This is not small. Russia (and BRICS are in on this in the longterm) has, because it was sanctioned, moved away from all the international brand names (someone may fact check me if I'm wrong here) and it's an interesting conversation regarding what chunks of the Russian market are up for "free trade" again if a peace deal is signed.
2.(A). Russia will not accept Nato presence in Ukraine. It must, however, (and here all peace deals fail if Russia refuses), redraw its demand that Ukraine be "de-militarized". That is never going to happen considering what has happened over the past two years.
(B). EU role within this security framework as was being discussed before Russia invaded within the Normandy format. EU states will want assurances even though I'm absolutely certain that not one of them believes they are in any direct line of threat, except if the war continues, at all. Everyone here will disagree with that. History will settle the answer.
3. Ukraine entry to EU. Russia doesn't oppose this (last I checked and I've been avoiding this war for good reasons, personal) at all. It said so two years ago.
3(A) Reliability of the Ukrainian market (whatever its territorial make-up, see [1]). America has pumped >270 billion into Ukraine. It wants its money back and with a profit. It can only do this through peacetime share of the Ukrainian economy. This goes back to the security agreement but it is in the EU's (billions, also) and US's interest (purely financial, now) to see some form of Ukraine emerge which receives stimulus from both the EU and US. This will likely be a neoliberal post-War boom for Ukraine and an eventual disaster which all nations are used to at this point as neoliberal policies create "wealth" (or its illusion) at the outset but then, when all is stripped, it becomes a parasitic false monopoly (where the US/UK basically are now, some EU nations not far behind). A different discussion.

tl;dr

I stay out of this thread because I don't want to rile anyone up but am only commenting here because the US will sue for some form of deal but it will not be like Vietnam where the helicopters left with people hanging onto them. It will be a settled negotiation. Only way it ends anyway. (As I said, Russia will not lose militariliy as many of the top US brass knew many years ago regarding its border dominance and the US as well most of the world knows this). This irritates people, I understand, and that's why I won't answer back to comments (so as not to keep an irate discussion continuing). Just wanted to point out that scenarios of Ukraine being left like Vietnam (in the US leaving and not giving a feck) is very wide of the actual mark.

Also noteworthy is Trump says he wants to go to Tehran which has not happened since the revolution iirc. Interesting because Russia just agreed to underwrite Iranian security de facto by virtue of their nuclear deal. Interlocking spheres here (geopolitically - bleeds into potential Israeli de-escalation also). We'll see.
 
Republicans are littered with pro russian sentiment people. Vance, RFK, Vivek, Elon, Moscow Marge, et al. who will be constantly in his ear, not that he would need that. It's pure copium at this point, to hope anything good will come out of this. Only way is russians offending Trumps massive ego somehow, and him going over all his advisors, which is unlikely, to say the least.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.