Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Steep rise in Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war
Executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war by Vladimir Putin’s forces have surged this year, with a top Kyiv official warning it could indicate a shift in Russian policy.

Some 80 per cent of the 93 prisoner executions recorded since the start of the war took place this year, Yuriy Belousov, the head of the prosecutor-general’s office, revealed on local TV.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...in-russian-executions-of-ukrainian-prisoners/
 

Trump Secretly Stayed in Touch With Putin After Leaving Office, Book Says​


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/...-woodward-book.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

He has boasted that if he wins he will negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine within 24 hours and do so even before the inauguration.

Mr. Trump has not explained how he would do so, but possible terms described last month by his running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, sounded a lot like what Mr. Putin would want. Mr. Vance said that Russia could keep the Ukrainian territory it has seized by force in violation of international law and receive a “guarantee of neutrality” from Ukraine, which would not be allowed to join NATO.
 
Russia just banned Discord and the Zs are raging. They've used Discord for broadcasting drone footage live and don't have the alternative at the moment :lol:
 
Russia just banned Discord and the Zs are raging. They've used Discord for broadcasting drone footage live and don't have the alternative at the moment :lol:

Is that just for internal censorship purposes? And to funnel them into services that they have more control of. Or are they pre-emptively banning it with their own narrative, as they might foresee Discord closing their services to Russians (from tightening US sanctions). Russia are also reportedly planning to ban iOS and Android:

https://united24media.com/latest-news/google-android-and-ios-could-soon-to-be-blocked-in-russia-1535

I guess the exact reason doesn't matter all that much, but Russia is now closing themselves off/getting closed off from multiple major Western communication services.
 
Is that just for internal censorship purposes? And to funnel them into services that they have more control of. Or are they pre-emptively banning it with their own narrative, as they might foresee Discord closing their services to Russians (from tightening US sanctions). Russia are also reportedly planning to ban iOS and Android:

https://united24media.com/latest-news/google-android-and-ios-could-soon-to-be-blocked-in-russia-1535

I guess the exact reason doesn't matter all that much, but Russia is now closing themselves off/getting closed off from multiple major Western communication services.
Yep, internal censorship.
 

So North Korea will send a bunch of ill equipped and probably malnutritioned bullet magnets to take on the deaths instead of Russians? Like how do they think they'll get around the intel Ukraine is getting which has helped kill over half a million russian soldiers? If Wagner and elite russian soliders died early in the battle, I doubt North Korean soldiers will add anything other than bodies
 
So North Korea will send a bunch of ill equipped and probably malnutritioned bullet magnets to take on the deaths instead of Russians? Like how do they think they'll get around the intel Ukraine is getting which has helped kill over half a million russian soldiers? If Wagner and elite russian soliders died early in the battle, I doubt North Korean soldiers will add anything other than bodies

If it happens then yes, I imagine Ukraine will know about it pretty soon. But as long as they get to the frontlines and add numbers to the Russian attacks, that'll mean it was effective, even if they'll have a short lifespan. Wagner forces were largely wiped out in Bakhmut as you say - but they took Bakhmut, and Russia kept moving forward, and it cost Ukraine a lot of men as well. It'll also be a benefit for the North Korean army to have their soldiers get experience in war, those who come back. Same with China sending drones as was mentioned in the previous page, they'll get to see how they operate in war and how they can be improved.
 
So North Korea will send a bunch of ill equipped and probably malnutritioned bullet magnets to take on the deaths instead of Russians? Like how do they think they'll get around the intel Ukraine is getting which has helped kill over half a million russian soldiers? If Wagner and elite russian soliders died early in the battle, I doubt North Korean soldiers will add anything other than bodies

Why the hell are you getting this nonsense?
 
The Guardian also writes about North Koreans in Ukraine.

North Koreans deployed alongside Russian troops in Ukraine, sources say
North Korean military engineers have been deployed to help Russia target Ukraine with ballistic missiles, and fighters operating in occupied areas of the country have already been killed, senior officials in Kyiv and Seoul said. There are dozens of North Koreans behind Russian lines, in teams that “support launcher systems for KN-23 missiles”, a source in Ukraine told the Guardian.

South Korea’s defence minister, Kim Yong-hyun, told MPs in Seoul this week that it was “highly likely” that North Korean officers had been deployed to fight alongside Russians, and several had died in the attack, although he did not give further details.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/10/north-korea-engineers-deployed-russia-ukraine
 
The Guardian also writes about North Koreans in Ukraine.

North Koreans deployed alongside Russian troops in Ukraine, sources say

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/10/north-korea-engineers-deployed-russia-ukraine

I can't read the article as it requires subscription, but it seems like these North Korean personnel that are currently deployed (and some now killed) are not front-line soldiers but only engineers and support staff for the NK missile launchers? It was speculated back when Russia an NK made that defense agreement that some engineers would be sent to Russia, I guess that has now been confirmed as well as their role. So we are still waiting for NK soldiers to arrive in to the front line combat, although that will probably happen at some point as this alliance increases in scope. Although I don't think that Kim necessarily wants to send any large number of troops just to get killed in Ukraine, but who knows. Depends on what they get in return.
 
I can't read the article as it requires subscription, but it seems like these North Korean personnel that are currently deployed (and some now killed) are not front-line soldiers but only engineers and support staff for the NK missile launchers? It was speculated back when Russia an NK made that defense agreement that some engineers would be sent to Russia, I guess that has now been confirmed as well as their role. So we are still waiting for NK soldiers to arrive in to the front line combat, although that will probably happen at some point as this alliance increases in scope. Although I don't think that Kim necessarily wants to send any large number of troops just to get killed in Ukraine, but who knows. Depends on what they get in return.
I'd be surprised if NK sends troops to fight Ukrainians in close quarter combat. These support staff & engineers have been helping Russia to launch missiles. Here's some thoughts on the rationale for North Korea from the same article.

“For North Korea, which has supplied Russia with many shells and missiles, it’s crucial to learn how to handle different weapons and gain real-world combat experience,” Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, told the AFP news agency. “This might even be a driving factor behind sending North Korean soldiers – to provide them with diverse experiences and wartime training.”
 
I'd be surprised if NK sends troops to fight Ukrainians in close quarter combat. These support staff & engineers have been helping Russia to launch missiles. Here's some thoughts on the rationale for North Korea from the same article.

Yeah I agree with that rationale, it's greatly beneficial for NK to get real wartime experience on their weapon systems, and presumably assistance from Russia to improve them. Troops in combat is another question but I wouldn't doubt they'd be sent for the same purposes at some point, to gain some actual combat experience and tactics etc. Having them all just wiped out in some meatgrinder attack isn't very beneficial but experience in trench warfare as well as fighting in an urban setting would be valuable for them I think.
 
Yeah I agree with that rationale, it's greatly beneficial for NK to get real wartime experience on their weapon systems, and presumably assistance from Russia to improve them. Troops in combat is another question but I wouldn't doubt they'd be sent for the same purposes at some point, to gain some actual combat experience and tactics etc. Having them all just wiped out in some meatgrinder attack isn't very beneficial but experience in trench warfare as well as fighting in an urban setting would be valuable for them I think.
Well...

The Ukrainian military intelligence official said that it’s unclear where the combat units that are training in Russia would be deployed on the Ukraine front. Moscow could use them in Russian border regions, freeing up Russian troops to fight in Ukraine, the official said.

 
20 minutes of Vivek talking pure gibberish about Ukraine. The so called "Russia-China alliance" is the real reason we should give Putin a swath of Ukraine.

Another reason why Friedman is completely useless as an interviewer. He allowed people to talk endless nonsense without challenging them, then claims he's accomplished something by having a friendly conversation.


I like his podcast mostly cause he has lots of people I admire there, but his friendliness makes his podcasts with politicians a bit shit. Just look at the Netanyahu podcast, he starts quite aggressively, but Netanyahu plays him like a fiddle, and by the end of it, Lex is admiring Netanyahu.

He has good episodes with tech people and scientists though.
 
I like his podcast mostly cause he has lots of people I admire there, but his friendliness makes his podcasts with politicians a bit shit. Just look at the Netanyahu podcast, he starts quite aggressively, but Netanyahu plays him like a fiddle, and by the end of it, Lex is admiring Netanyahu.

He has good episodes with tech people and scientists though.

I like some of his guests as well, but the flip side to that coin is he often invites total charlatans on and squanders his chance to ask challenging questions in favor of casual conversation.
 
Russians are now hunting civilians in Kherson with drones and bragging about it on Telegram by publishing the videos.
This is just one of many videos posted where they target regular civilians in the city.
 
Russians are now hunting civilians in Kherson with drones and bragging about it on Telegram by publishing the videos.
This is just one of many videos posted where they target regular civilians in the city.

Yeah, I read about this. There was one report that hinted at Russian drone pilots doing this for training. Here are some other reasons.
Russian drone operators provide evidence of the war crimes by openly sharing footage of their attacks on social media, specifically Russian Telegram channels.

This footage serves multiple purposes: it spreads fear among the Ukrainian population and acts as evidence to solicit funding for additional drones, which the Russian military fails to supply due to a lack of certification.
https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/40206
 
Props to this lad, he's just spent some time in Kherson and is the main reason the situation is getting more media attention of late. It's been going on for months. Surprised he's still alive though honestly, he's a bit clueless on the opsec front.

 
Russians are now hunting civilians in Kherson with drones and bragging about it on Telegram by publishing the videos.
This is just one of many videos posted where they target regular civilians in the city.


Yeah this is a new level of terror. It's making it into some more mainstream media now:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidh...n-drones-hunt-civilians/?ss=aerospace-defense

That is increasing awareness at least. Could be just a coincidence that this practice gaining traction along with the increased uptick of PoW executions, or maybe its a part of an increased terror campaign. This coming winter is going to be brutal for Ukraine.
 
Sounds like the shit is about to hit the fan in Chechnya. An attack in Grozny, preceded by Kadyrov beefing with neighboring billionaires.



 
September Was Deadly Month for Russian Troops in Ukraine, U.S. Says
According to U.S. assessments, Russian casualties in the war so far number as many as 615,000 — 115,000 Russians killed and 500,000 wounded. Ukrainian officials have zealously guarded their casualty figures, even from the Americans, but a U.S. official estimated that Ukraine had suffered a bit more than half of Russia’s casualties, or more than 57,500 killed and 250,000 wounded.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/russia-casualties-ukraine-war.html
 
September Was Deadly Month for Russian Troops in Ukraine, U.S. Says

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/russia-casualties-ukraine-war.html

It was deadly but also probably one of the better months in terms of territory gained for Russia aside from the initial invasion. Finally capturing Vuhledar and overall steady and impactful gains in various places and moving towards Pokrovsk which will be a bad loss for Ukraine. I doubt they will be able to stop that attack.

But the losses in both men and equipment required for Russia to take this territory, advancing from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk, have indeed been massive. Here's a linked tweet from that article showing the estimated average daily casualty rate in the war (for Russia):

 
Yeah, it's been known for a while now. Not sure if Musk is too motivated to do it but hopefully they'll find out a reliable and fast method of distinguishing Russian Starlinks from Ukrainian ones and will be shutting the former ones way faster.
Musk is more motivated to shut down the ukranian ones
 
A package ignited on the ground and is suspected to be the work of Russia. Unclear whom the package was destined for.

 
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Germany: spy chiefs warn of increasing Russian threat
"We are observing aggressive behavior on the part of the Russian intelligence services," said BfV chief Thomas Haldenwang, adding that such activities "have reached a new level in recent months, which ought to be a wake-up call to all."

"Whether we like it or not, we are in direct confrontation with Russia," he said, stating that "a direct military confrontation with NATO [could be] a course of action for Russia" by 2030 as Putin pursues his long-term goal of weakening of the West and the establishing of a new global order.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-spy-chiefs-warn-of-increasing-russian-threat/a-70493640
 
Researchers say the majority of pro-Kremlin disinformation campaigns targeting German audiences have one of three objectives, researchers say: weakening support for Ukraine, tarnishing NATO's image or amplifying pro-Russian voices across Germany.
 
What is in Zelenskiy's Ukraine victory plan?
  • NATO invite.
  • Beef up Ukraine's defence capabilities such as air defence and removing restrictions.
  • A non-nuclear strategic deterrence package.
  • Strategic economic potential for joint investments and use of Ukraine's natural resources.
  • Use Ukraine's military to enhance NATO security and replace some of the US forces stationed in Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/key-points-zelenskiys-ukraine-victory-plan-2024-10-16/
 
What is in Zelenskiy's Ukraine victory plan?
  • NATO invite.
  • Beef up Ukraine's defence capabilities such as air defence and removing restrictions.
  • A non-nuclear strategic deterrence package.
  • Strategic economic potential for joint investments and use of Ukraine's natural resources.
  • Use Ukraine's military to enhance NATO security and replace some of the US forces stationed in Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/key-points-zelenskiys-ukraine-victory-plan-2024-10-16/

This is wholly unrealistic and some of these points will take decades to implement.

NATO is unrealistic.
None-nuclear strategic deterrence is as vague as anything.
Ukraine's military is not ready enough, nor competent enough to replace any US force stations. It's very far from being ready, actually.
 
This is wholly unrealistic and some of these points will take decades to implement.

NATO is unrealistic.
None-nuclear strategic deterrence is as vague as anything.
Ukraine's military is not ready enough, nor competent enough to replace any US force stations. It's very far from being ready, actually.
He also emphasized that Ukraine is not prepared for territorial concessions. If Western partners are expecting that, then that's going to be an issue as well.
But he reiterated that Ukraine is not prepared for a “frozen conflict” or any “trade-offs involving territory or sovereignty,” which drew sustained applause from the lawmakers.
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-...y-parliament-f3525550f6986f590777193a7385c0c5
 
Tatarigame is a decent analyst and Ukrainian himself. Summary of his thoughts below. Essentially he argues that without more aid Ukraine is going to lose its territory and it will make Russia be perceived as the winner against the West & Ukraine.

I'll say what many might think but hesitate to voice: Ukraine is currently losing the war, and the trend is negative unless drastic measures are taken.

Unless Ukraine and the West create a serious plan to radically increase aid to support mobilization - where Ukraine commits to mobilizing more people on the condition that they are properly armed and trained, and the West provides robust air defense to intercept missiles as decisively as the U.S. does for Israel - Ukraine will lose the war of attrition. This will force unfavorable peace, and mass migration from Ukraine to other countries, setting a dangerous precedent, and making it look like the West lost to Russia in the eyes of the world, especially among the enemies of the West.
 
Tatarigame is a decent analyst and Ukrainian himself. Summary of his thoughts below. Essentially he argues that without more aid Ukraine is going to lose its territory and it will make Russia be perceived as the winner against the West & Ukraine.




I agree with his analysis, and it's what I've been saying here.

A few here seem to think that conflict is won by call of duty style Kill/death ratios which is never how this works.