Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

That_Bloke said:
If we were to believe them, they shot down the whole VVS, sank the Russian navy and destroyed their whole army.

I don't trust Ukrainian or Russian sources one bit. Two sides of the same coin that vastly exaggerate the enemy's losses and minimize their own, Pravda style.

Look at the front, at territorial gains and losses. Towns conquered or fallen and their strategic importance. Anything else is just a vertical slice that tells nothing about the whole story.
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First paragraph seems disingenous to me.

There have been moments where Ukraine's high profile claims haven't been corroborated by Western sources. But to my knowledge it's not a systemic thing. To the contrary, Russian milbloggers routinely confirm airforce losses and Ukraine's sea drone footage of recent attacks have shown Russian ships to be sinking. And we've seen the aftermath of Russian ships who got hit by Ukraine's airforce.

The daily reported losses figures of Russian equipment and men does seem highly optimistic to me and I would take them with a grain of salt. But the high profile attacks do get plenty of confirmation.

The notion that Ukraine has pretended that they have destroyed all of Russia's military doesn't really fly.
 
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VorZakone said:
First paragraph seems disingenous to me.

There have been moments where Ukraine's high profile claims haven't been corroborated by Western sources. But to my knowledge it's not a systemic thing. To the contrary, Russian milbloggers routinely confirm airforce losses and Ukraine's sea drone footage of recent attacks have shown Russian ships to be sinking. And we've seen the aftermath of Russian ships who got hit by Ukraine's airforce.

The daily reported losses figures of Russian equipment and men does seem highly optimistic to me and I would take them with a grain of salt. But the high profile attacks do get plenty of confirmation.

The notion that Ukraine has pretended that they have destroyed all of Russia's military doesn't really fly.
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It was a (not so obvious) hyperbole. There's absolutely no denying that Russia took heavy losses and will continue to do so. Despite the lack of current help, Ukraine isn't some backward country that can't defend itself, unlike the usual targets the US and the West got accustomed to bomb back to the stone age in the past 75 years.

My point is that unless there's significant towns or regions changing hands, the glorious stories of planes, ships, or tanks being busted have little meaning.

Wait and watch for the big results.
 
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That_Bloke said:
It was a (not so obvious) hyperbole. There's absolutely no denying that Russia took heavy losses and will continue to do so. Despite the lack of current help, Ukraine isn't some backward country that can't defend itself, unlike the usual targets the US and the West got accustomed to bomb back to the stone age in the past 75 years.

My point is that unless there's significant towns or regions changing hands, the glorious stories of planes, ships, or tanks being busted have little meaning.

Wait and watch for the big results.
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They only have little meaning if you think that an invasion force (or a defending force for that matter) can continue taking losses indefinitely. Clearly they can't, this is simply a question of who can outlast the other. Right now it looks to be Russia but things could change with the right support. A town lost or gained has to also be looked at in the context of what it cost in terms of lives, money, time and equipment.
 
That_Bloke said:
It was a (not so obvious) hyperbole. There's absolutely no denying that Russia took heavy losses and will continue to do so. Despite the lack of current help, Ukraine isn't some backward country that can't defend itself, unlike the usual targets the US and the West got accustomed to bomb back to the stone age in the past 75 years.

My point is that unless there's significant towns or regions changing hands, the glorious stories of planes, ships, or tanks being busted have little meaning.

Wait and watch for the big results.
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Not when planes costs millions of dollars.
 
That_Bloke said:
It was a (not so obvious) hyperbole. There's absolutely no denying that Russia took heavy losses and will continue to do so. Despite the lack of current help, Ukraine isn't some backward country that can't defend itself, unlike the usual targets the US and the West got accustomed to bomb back to the stone age in the past 75 years.

My point is that unless there's significant towns or regions changing hands, the glorious stories of planes, ships, or tanks being busted have little meaning.

Wait and watch for the big results.
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I think its fairly well established now that the this war doesn't end from the changing hands of towns or regions. It ends through the attrition of Russian forces until the cost is too high. Lost planes, ships, tanks and men mean everything.

Also, the daily figures they report may look exaggerated in personnel, but the equipment losses tie in to the visually confirmed losses that have been catalogued. Potentially even light, depending on what level of losses that don't get photographed you assume. Ukraine has made some mistakes in its reporting at times sure, but I don't think there's much case to suggest they openly lie/exaggerate in general. Take a look at the civilian casualties they report, 10k... We know in Mariupol the number is potentially many times that from the first few weeks alone, but they report confirmed only.

I don't blame anyone for assuming Ukraine would lie and exaggerate, as that's just the norm right? It's what we'd do? I think they are a lot more by the book than they get credit for however.
 
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TwoSheds said:
They only have little meaning if you think that an invasion force (or a defending force for that matter) can continue taking losses indefinitely. Clearly they can't, this is simply a question of who can outlast the other. Right now it looks to be Russia but things could change with the right support. A town lost or gained has to also be looked at in the context of what it cost in terms of lives, money, time and equipment.
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Attrition is definitely not on Ukraine's side.

This is one conflict where I'm having the hardest time of my life getting a remotely accurate idea on the military situation because of the incredible amount of propaganda and disinformation from both sides.

We've been told for months that Russia was done. Its economy is on its knees, its army is shit and can't fight for shit, its equipment is shit, its generals are shit. It lost about 52,000,000 soldiers, 137,000 planes and 250,000 tanks but at the same time is somehow able to take on NATO and invade Western Europe.

On the other side Ukraine is finished. It's a failed, corrupt country full of Nazis, with no remaining army to speak of, sending women and old people to the front. It needs to be denazified and brought back to the herd, hence the highly successful, ongoing special operations. Then everything will be just fine.

I don't trust either side, certainly not tweets and prefer to wait a few months after each glorious announcement to see what's what.
 
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That_Bloke said:
Attrition is definitely not on Ukraine's side.
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I disagree, for the simple fact Ukraine will never stop fighting no matter what support they are or are not getting, they can't, they don't have a choice. Similarly, NATO doesn't really have a choice to support Ukraine, there's no real debate to that decision, just short term self-serving political nonsense from certain people that unfortunately have influence over decisions within the group.

For Russia the whole thing is fairly pointless to begin with so the costs weigh heavier against the benefits of carrying on. Only the Russian side has a breaking point, it's just that it may be 5 years or so away.
 
The officials declined to say whether Russia had responded to the initial reachout, but did say that since the program became public knowledge last week Russia has not shown any willingness to engage on the issue.
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VorZakone said:
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Criminal mastermind nutcase doing criminal mastermind nutcase things. More at 5.

Speaking of this creature - has anyone ever seen a solid writeup on the likely outcome of what were to happen if Putin finally descends into hell? I know he has been gradually putting family members in positions of power, but surely a massive power vacuum is likely to appear regardless?
 
Redplane said:
Criminal mastermind nutcase doing criminal mastermind nutcase things. More at 5.

Speaking of this creature - has anyone ever seen a solid writeup on the likely outcome of what were to happen if Putin finally descends into hell? I know he has been gradually putting family members in positions of power, but surely a massive power vacuum is likely to appear regardless?
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There will be a power vacuum for some time, but, to paraphrase Ralf Rangnick, that country is in dire need of an open heart surgery regardless. If Russia wants to make the full transition into a democracy, there will be a need for very hard work from pro-democracy activist groups and lots of protests on the scale of what happened in South Korea in the decade following Park Chung-hee's assasination.
 
Hard to believe it, but it as been 10 years today since this pivotal moment from the Maidan Revolution. Tomorrow will be the 10th anniversary of the day when Yanukovich fled.

 
Not good.

Hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by advancing Russian units or disappeared during Ukraine’s chaotic retreat from the eastern city of Avdiivka, according to senior Western officials and soldiers fighting for Ukraine, a devastating loss that could deal a blow to already weakening morale.
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VorZakone said:
First paragraph seems disingenous to me.

There have been moments where Ukraine's high profile claims haven't been corroborated by Western sources. But to my knowledge it's not a systemic thing. To the contrary, Russian milbloggers routinely confirm airforce losses and Ukraine's sea drone footage of recent attacks have shown Russian ships to be sinking. And we've seen the aftermath of Russian ships who got hit by Ukraine's airforce.

The daily reported losses figures of Russian equipment and men does seem highly optimistic to me and I would take them with a grain of salt. But the high profile attacks do get plenty of confirmation.

The notion that Ukraine has pretended that they have destroyed all of Russia's military doesn't really fly.
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I see what you did there.
 
VorZakone said:
Not good.



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My wife's cousin and his comrades are hiding/stuck inside a tunnel within the city. My wife and family did an airtime call with him two days ago to keep his spirits up.

It was all banter and we were careful not to talk any war stuff in case it could compromise his position.

He said there's high chance he won't make it out alive but he showed absolutely zero signs of fear. Brave lad - 45 year old with no prior military experience before this war.

We have had no communication since. We are praying he makes it out alive.
 
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Kaush949 said:
My wife's cousin and his comrades are hiding/stuck inside a tunnel within the city. My wife and family did a airtime call with him two days ago to keep his spirits up.

It was all banter and we were careful not to talk any war stuff in case it could compromise his position.

He said there's high chance he won't make it out alive but he showed absolutely zero signs of fear. Brave lad - 45 year old with no prior military experience before this war.

We have had no communication since. We are praying he makes it out alive.
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That's awful to hear. I hope that he'll get out unharmed.
 
Kaush949 said:
My wife's cousin and his comrades are hiding/stuck inside a tunnel within the city. My wife and family did a airtime call with him two days ago to keep his spirits up.

It was all banter and we were careful not to talk any war stuff in case it could compromise his position.

He said there's high chance he won't make it out alive but he showed absolutely zero signs of fear. Brave lad - 45 year old with no prior military experience before this war.

We have had no communication since. We are praying he makes it out alive.
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Damn :(

Hopefully he'll make it out alive.
 
Kyonn said:
16K! That can't be right, can it?
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Saw another Russian commander ranting that it was more costly than Bakhmut. This guy mentioned has apparently been fighting in Ukraine since 2014, though now known more as a Russian propagandist, as he ran a telegram channel. He's certainly no friend of Ukraine but would likely know the situation on the ground.
 
Lightbringer said:
Small revenge for Avdiyivka?

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Aftermath published by russian sources in this thread (mind the sensitive content before opening):



Same happened yesterday in one of the training polygons in Kherson region:



Human life for russian generals / officers is the most expandable resource at their disposal.
 
Putin still believes he can win in Ukraine, says western assessment

The Russian president is thought to be notably more optimistic than a year ago, buoyed up by the US’s failure to sign off $60bn more in military aid and limited recent successes on the battlefield, namely capturing the town of Avdiivka.

“We do not believe Russia has given up on its maximalist goals of subjugating Ukraine,” officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity, a day after Putin told his defence minister to continue attacking after the costly victory.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...he-can-win-in-ukraine-says-western-assessment
 
VorZakone said:
Spanish intel suggests Russia responsible for killing of defector.

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I doubt this required any investigation to reach that conclusion. Nowadays I doubt is possible to hide if you don't cut all your life contacts. If there is an interest to find you, they will and clearly they made an example for other possible defectors
 
DT12 said:
"Russia outsmarts Western sanctions - and China is paying attention"

https://www.economist.com/finance-a...stern-sanctions-and-china-is-paying-attention
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Interesting piece on "third countries" here.

Yet all these measures must contend with the growing prosperity and financial sophistication of “third countries”—those that neither impose American and European sanctions, nor are under sanctions themselves. The 120 members of the “non-aligned movement”, which include Brazil and India, produced 38% of global gdp in 2022, up from 15% in 1990. They are home to five of the world’s 20 most important financial hubs, based on the number and variety of banks, and churn out lots that a modern army might need.

Brazil, India and Mexico all declined to participate in the West’s economic war soon after Russia invaded Ukraine.
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