Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

B. Munich said:
That's what many of friends back in Germany say also.
I actually doubt it. Living in Thailand, especially in the tourist hotspots like Phuket or Pattaya isn't cheap anymore.

I don't believe Russians who fled the country actually have this kind of money to live here.
The Russians I saw were families often with kids. They were typical tourists and did the typical tourist stuff. A family of 4 will easily spend 5k to 6k Euro in a month here, not counting the cost of the flights.
These aren't poor refugees who tried to escape the war.
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Yep. Bit of a weird attempt on this thread to paint basically all Russians as destitute hick peasants.

I still see a lot of Russian families holidaying in Egypt for instance. Quite a few Ukrainian families too.

Its an incredibly unequal country but with a middle class that I imagine is finding it harder to spend their money in Europe as well now. I don't think all these people are just exiles.
 
VorZakone said:
Preparation is normal, all countries will have plans for different scenarios. Has your acquaintance suggested that they've received new intel that suggests a more serious Russian threat?
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He won’t go into detail naturally but they have a heightened view and approach to the threat from Russia. Reading between the lines they’re expecting something.
 
I wonder if Ukraine still has Bayraktar drones. Haven't seen a Bayraktar clip in ages.
 
whitbyviking said:
I know someone here in Norway who is part of the armed forces in intelligence and they have been preparing for years for a Russian attack and that timescale was mentioned. He’s not a full time soldier, but is involved in military planning on a regular basis.
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I'd be extremely skeptical of those claims, particularly when it comes to reading between the lines. If this was truly something more than just planning for all eventualities (given there is a war on in Europe and we neighbour the aggressor), then it would presumably either be basically public knowledge or else so secret that your friend telling you would be very illegal.

The "not a full time soldier" thing makes me hesitant as well.
 
VorZakone said:
I wonder if Ukraine still has Bayraktar drones. Haven't seen a Bayraktar clip in ages.
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Baykar the company that makes them are building a factory in Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...baykar-begins-build-plant-ukraine-2024-02-06/

As for the TB2 drones that Ukraine recieved in the early days I'd expect that a lot them will have been destroyed by now and if there are any left they are probably used as surveillance drones further away from the front lines. I think it would be very hard to operate a drone of that size near the fronlines with all the air defence units deployed there.
 
nimic said:
I'd be extremely skeptical of those claims, particularly when it comes to reading between the lines. If this was truly something more than just planning for all eventualities (given there is a war on in Europe and we neighbour the aggressor), then it would presumably either be basically public knowledge or else so secret that your friend telling you would be very illegal.

The "not a full time soldier" thing makes me hesitant as well.
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There are very few full time soldiers in Norway, they have a national service model and then they retain some people on a permanent basis but only part time, they join exercises every year and participate in regular activities.

I don’t know the full details but generally speaking the Norwegians don’t bullshit or gossip much and even if it is not a “real” threat they seem to be treating it as one and expecting/preparing for the worst. That was why it is “reading between the lines”, he’s not giving anything away that isn’t public knowledge, huge numbers of national service recruits go to the north where the Russian border is and there is regular news about airspace incursions/spying. The Russians even troll the Norwegians by taking immigrants to the far north and sending them across the border on bikes, google it, it’s not a joke.

If I remember rightly there was even a show on UK TV recently where they interviewed a border guard from the north of Norway and she more or less said Russia were the enemy and she was a “security guard” or some such. It’s just accepted over here. See the comments from the guy about Finland. They don’t trust Russia on historical reasons and they probably never will, when Russia is at war with another neighbour state then it is bound to raise tensions, preparations etc in other neighbour states. They’ll never tell you what they are up to but they don’t have any other enemies in Scandinavia/Finland
 
whitbyviking said:
There are very few full time soldiers in Norway, they have a national service model and then they retain some people on a permanent basis but only part time, they join exercises every year and participate in regular activities.

I don’t know the full details but generally speaking the Norwegians don’t bullshit or gossip much and even if it is not a “real” threat they seem to be treating it as one and expecting/preparing for the worst. That was why it is “reading between the lines”, he’s not giving anything away that isn’t public knowledge, huge numbers of national service recruits go to the north where the Russian border is and there is regular news about airspace incursions/spying. The Russians even troll the Norwegians by taking immigrants to the far north and sending them across the border on bikes, google it, it’s not a joke.

If I remember rightly there was even a show on UK TV recently where they interviewed a border guard from the north of Norway and she more or less said Russia were the enemy and she was a “security guard” or some such. It’s just accepted over here. See the comments from the guy about Finland. They don’t trust Russia on historical reasons and they probably never will, when Russia is at war with another neighbour state then it is bound to raise tensions, preparations etc in other neighbour states. They’ll never tell you what they are up to but they don’t have any other enemies in Scandinavia/Finland
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whitbyviking said:
@nimic

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ine-war-norway-defence-minister-b2491211.html
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I'm Norwegian myself, so I'm aware of this. I wasn't trying to make the point that Norway isn't worried about Russia, just that "we need to increase defense spending to be ready for an aggressive Russia" isn't really some military secret, it's official state policy.

The "enemy" thing is definitely true now, though it's worth pointing out that up until the Ukraine war Norway had a very reasonable working relationship with Russia, particularly in (and because of) the far north. That said, even with that the majority of military activity in Norway has been in the north since the cold war started - for the reasons you state.
 
nimic said:
I'm Norwegian myself, so I'm aware of this. I wasn't trying to make the point that Norway isn't worried about Russia, just that "we need to increase defense spending to be ready for an aggressive Russia" isn't really some military secret, it's official state policy.

The "enemy" thing is definitely true now, though it's worth pointing out that up until the Ukraine war Norway had a very reasonable working relationship with Russia, particularly in (and because of) the far north. That said, even with that the majority of military activity in Norway has been in the north since the cold war started - for the reasons you state.
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Never knew you were Norwegian, apologies for the unnecessary explanation :lol:

I’m not claiming secret knowledge so if that is what came across I’ll just confirm I’m not now, I was curious how Norway would wage a war on Russia, which is what I was trying to get out of him. The only thing he was willing to discuss were the obvious things that Norway wouldn’t compete in an old school feet on the ground so are looking at modern, digital warfare. Again not a classified secret I’d expect. He didn’t seem to have much respect for Russian military officers and their methods of waging war. Other than that I just got the impression he was suggesting things were being escalated by Norway, not sure if there is a war/invasion threat equivalent of the UK’s terror threat type thing.

As for the working relationship it’s an interesting point actually, I haven’t had much to do with Russian companies but in my limited interactions there were special measures put in place. Our Russian entity took a rig directly from us and that was a nightmare, also when they wanted to buy equipment from us. The requirements for releasing to them and what documents we could send/receive went through a huge amount of legal check and scrutiny. Seems there was an open working relationship but it was subject to far more secrecy than even communication between companies and people during exploration well drilling, which is unusual.
 
Revan said:
knowing that a lot of people who watch Tucker are MAGA crowd who bizarrely are on the side of Russia.
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It's insane. They claim to be these big patriots, yet side with their country's arch enemy, and have no issue with their cult leader being in bed with them.
 
They’re always the opposite of what they claim. And 70m+ Americans are too stupid to realize it.
I figure 4m or so know it but it suits their purposes.
The GOP has done a great job on Americans; convincing them that only they have their best interests at heart.
 
the hea said:
Baykar the company that makes them are building a factory in Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...baykar-begins-build-plant-ukraine-2024-02-06/

As for the TB2 drones that Ukraine recieved in the early days I'd expect that a lot them will have been destroyed by now and if there are any left they are probably used as surveillance drones further away from the front lines. I think it would be very hard to operate a drone of that size near the fronlines with all the air defence units deployed there.
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Technically it should have been impossible to operate the TB2 near the frontline from day one. The only way it was possible is because it is so low performing, that it is filtered out by the usual settings of air surveillance radars - too small, too slow to be recognized as an airplane. Russia had to learn that lesson the hard way, but then it comes down to reconfiguring your radar and coaching the operators on this topic.
 
stefan92 said:
Technically it should have been impossible to operate the TB2 near the frontline from day one. The only way it was possible is because it is so low performing, that it is filtered out by the usual settings of air surveillance radars - too small, too slow to be recognized as an airplane. Russia had to learn that lesson the hard way, but then it comes down to reconfiguring your radar and coaching the operators on this topic.
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It's possible that Russian radars filtered out the TB2 echoes as clutter but the high levels of disorganization among the russian troops during the first months might also have been a big factor.
Setting up effective and overlapping air surveillance zones around an advancing force is no easy task.
 
the hea said:
It's possible that Russian radars filtered out the TB2 echoes as clutter but the high levels of disorganization among the russian troops during the first months might also have been a big factor.
Setting up effective and overlapping air surveillance zones around an advancing force is no easy task.
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True, but we saw a lot of videos were TB2s attacked active air defense system. This is the kind of attack that should never have been possible (but luckily were)
 
demetre said:
No leaks, only opinions. Everyone convinced it's a political decision, because Syrskiy is more loyal to Zelenskiy and his crew.

Zaluzhny has massive support from both soldiers and the regular folk. To fire him right now, when morale in Ukrainian society is so low is crazy.
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harms said:
I'm not @demetre but from what I've read the most realistic scenario seems to be that Zelenskiy felt threatened by Zaluzhny's political potential. The lack of success of the counter-offensive didn't seem to affect public's perception of the army (and Zaluzhny) as they're rightly seen as heroes who give their all to defend their country. But it did affect Zelenskiy's own rating. Here's a survey that says that the army's (and, by proxy, Zaluzhny's) approval rating is between 93 to 95 % (depending on the region) and Zelenskiy's is 75-76%, which is still a lot but it's way less than it was at the beginning of the invasion.

Plus, there were always rumours that the two didn't get along very well — Zaluzhny did a lot of things his own way, didn't consult the presidential's office before giving big interviews (like the one for The Economist) etc. As the situation on the front is currently in a relative (bloody and horrible) stalemate, Zelenskiy probably decided that if there ever was the time for this move, it was now.
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Thanks a lot, both of you.
 
calodo2003 said:
Oh...

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Yeah, straight up BS and there's more in these two hours.

Still the boogeyman's view is something we need to hear. A shame that it was an utter idiot like Carlson interviewing him, it's going to gain a lot of traction in the MAGA cult.

Piers Morgan would've been so much better.
 
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Russia has recruited as many as 15,000 Nepalis to fight its war. Many returned traumatized. Some never came back

“I didn’t join the Russian military for pleasure. I didn’t have any job opportunities in Nepal. But in hindsight, it wasn’t the right decision. We didn’t realize we would be sent to the frontlines that quickly and how horrible the situation would be,” Khadka said.

“It’s the Nepalis and other foreign fighters that are actually fighting in the front of war zones. The Russians position themselves a few hundred meters back as support,” said Suman Tamang, who returned from Russia last week.
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https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/asia/nepal-fighters-russia-ukraine-families-intl-cmd/index.html
 
Trump is opposed to any aid to Ukraine, and also said Russia is free to do what they want against NATO-nations.

Consider the foreign aid bill dead then, Mike Johnson will never take it up for a vote, since he is taking orders directly from that traitor.

Europe must get ready to take care of themselves, US won't be there much longer to handle it.
 
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VorZakone said:
Russia has recruited as many as 15,000 Nepalis to fight its war. Many returned traumatized. Some never came back


https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/asia/nepal-fighters-russia-ukraine-families-intl-cmd/index.html
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In all honesty what they expect? A country will always protect its own. Mercenarys dont ever receive any love and its sole purpose is put them to fight. Russian soldiers will be needed for fighting longer time and after the war to return to the russian economy
 
Polish president Tusk wrote a tweet calling out Republicans. Graham responds.

 


Bill is dead already, as expected.
 
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Morty_ said:


Bill is dead already, as expected.
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They only need to find a few republicans in the house that have balls and decency for a discharge motion bypassing the speaker, although it would delay the vote for another month or so.
 
Rajma said:
They only need to find a few republicans in the house that have balls and decency for a discharge motion bypassing the speaker, although it would delay the vote for another month or so.
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I'd never heard of a discharge motion, went and read the wikipedia article on it, it seems pretty unlikely.

Realistically, how long can Ukraine keep firing shells and supplying their troops without this money? Does there come a point when it falls apart or can Europen nations supply enough to keep them in the game?
 
foolsgold said:
I'd never heard of a discharge motion, went and read the wikipedia article on it, it seems pretty unlikely.

Realistically, how long can Ukraine keep firing shells and supplying their troops without this money? Does there come a point when it falls apart or can Europen nations supply enough to keep them in the game?
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Republican majority in the house is very slim, if all Democrats agree to vote on this you only need 2-3 Republicans to join in.
 
Rajma said:

Republican majority in the house is very slim, if all Democrats agree to vote on this you only need 2-3 Republicans to join in.
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I guess the Democrats can find ways to get the 3 Republicans, who made Johnson look like an ass just a week ago, on board once more.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
I guess the Democrats can find ways to get the 3 Republicans, who made Johnson look like an ass just a week ago, on board once more.
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The bill officially passed the senate vote just minutes ago, one hurdle is at least out of the way. Fingers crossed several house republicans can stand up to Trump / Johnson similarly to senate republicans.
 
The EU really really really needs to step up efforts to combat Russian disinformation. Putin is essentially undermining the entire continent with impunity.

Even stepping up arms production and increasing the aid to Ukraine - and both are necessary of course - are not enough without doing something about Russia's soft power.
 
Siorac said:
The EU really really really needs to step up efforts to combat Russian disinformation. Putin is essentially undermining the entire continent with impunity.

Even stepping up arms production and increasing the aid to Ukraine - and both are necessary of course - are not enough without doing something about Russia's soft power.
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Agree wholeheartedly. We need to step up our game asap. But I can’t shake off the feeling that the people in charge still underestimate the issue.
 
Rajma said:
The bill officially passed the senate vote just minutes ago, one hurdle is at least out of the way. Fingers crossed several house republicans can stand up to Trump / Johnson similarly to senate republicans.
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You can't necessarily rely on the left of the Democratic party to get behind such a petition either. You'd think at least one (Ilhan Omar) would be against it, probably Tlaib too and maybe a couple more.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
You can't necessarily rely on the left of the Democratic party to get behind such a petition either. You'd think at least one (Ilhan Omar) would be against it, probably Tlaib too and maybe a couple more.
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Thankfully, there are 20 odd Ukraine leaning republicans who are set to retire after this term, thus shouldn’t give a damn about Trump and primaries. Hopefully, they’re willing to do the right thing. Ukrainian lobbyists should be working overtime trying to come up with best retirement plans for these guys behind the closed doors. Play putin at his game at this point.
 
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