Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[tomaldinho1]

Ask the US,
Aside from America never in a million years allowing such a thing to happen?

https://www.ft.com/content/ad16ce08-763b-11e9-bbad-7c18c0ea0201


NATO is one of the primary ways the US maintains its military and economic dominance over Europe. An EU army is not happening, not even now when the US is giving Ukraine the same patented "as long as it takes" treatment it gave the Kurds and the Afghans. It COULD happen one day if and when the major EU countries elect leaders with actual spines who place Europe's interests above America's, but not while these servile lackeys are running the show.

US wouldn't be able to stop it though, it just needs the current core of EU countries to get a lot closer. As above post says, there is already man power in place and enough spending, what needs to happen is more common weapon system and production of those systems and ammo. The EU should be taking the lead in supporting Ukraine and driving the Russians out and should have been far more aggressive from the get go. There is no threat of nukes for defending Ukraine, this war could have been stopped in a few days and Putin would have been taken out or in hiding if we'd just set up a no fly zone or even been serious about putting boots on the ground.

 

[Gehrman]

US wouldn't be able to stop it though, it just needs the current core of EU countries to get a lot closer. As above post says, there is already man power in place and enough spending, what needs to happen is more common weapon system and production of those systems and ammo. The EU should be taking the lead in supporting Ukraine and driving the Russians out and should have been far more aggressive from the get go. There is no threat of nukes for defending Ukraine, this war could have been stopped in a few days and Putin would have been taken out or in hiding if we'd just set up a no fly zone or even been serious about putting boots on the ground.

France is a nuclear power.

 

[devilish]

Aside from America never in a million years allowing such a thing to happen?

https://www.ft.com/content/ad16ce08-763b-11e9-bbad-7c18c0ea0201


NATO is one of the primary ways the US maintains its military, economic and political dominance over Europe. An EU army is not happening, not even now when the US is giving Ukraine the same patented "as long as it takes" treatment it gave the Kurds and the Afghans. It COULD happen one day if and when the major EU countries elect leaders with actual spines who place Europe's interests above America's, but not while these servile lackeys are running the show.

According to general capitini its not the case anymore. The US had shifted its sights away from Europe and into the Pacific. They would actually applaud an EU army especially if it runs in parallel to NATO. Let's face it, the current situation is border ridiculous. One of the richest continents in the world can't defend itself

 

[tomaldinho1]

France is a nuclear power.

Yes...not sure if you meant to reply to me?

 

[Gehrman]

According to general capitini its not the case anymore. The US had shifted its sights away from Europe and into the Pacific. They would actually applaud an EU army especially if it runs in parallel to NATO. Let's face it, the current situation is border ridiculous. One of the richest continents in the world can't defend itself

Its a continent. There has been an invasion on 2nd poorest country in europe and isnt a part of Nato. The world doesn't consist of continents defending itself, but sovereign countries.

 

[Gehrman]

Yes...not sure if you meant to reply to me?

I perhaps misunderstood your point. I thought you meant a eu army vs Russia wouldn't mean confrontation between nuclear powers.

 

[tomaldinho1]

I perhaps misunderstood your point. I thought you meant a eu army vs Russia wouldn't mean confrontation between nuclear powers.

Ah no, was saying there wasn't a real threat despite Putin's bluffing

 

[Gehrman]

Ah no, was saying there wasn't a real threat despite Putin's bluffing

How would that differ from a nato intervention which includes the Us and the UK?

 

[tomaldinho1]

How would that differ from a nato intervention which includes the Us and the UK?

It wouldn't, I think that could also have happened and Putin would have backed down. He knew that wouldn't happen though as he's been testing our response for ages. It was probably a stronger response than he thought (given it seems like he thought we'd just let the invasion happen) but, even forgetting the US and UK, if the EU had just said 'no' and immediately mobilised armies, navies, airforces etc. I have no doubt his bluff would have been called and there wouldn't have been any bloodshed.

 

[B. Munich]

What exactly is wrong with the idea of highly motivated and well paid professional EU army to deter bad actors?

Actually nothing is wrong with it
Except Europe isn't ready for it.

Let's just forget about the trillions of Euro it will cost and aren't available. The Euro already was an huge mistake how it was introduced.
Our politicians thought the common currency will eventually lead to the political unity of Europe. In reality the opposite happened. The Euro caused a lot of frictions, envy and disunity between it's members.

Lesson learnt you can't do the second step before achieving the first, which would be a federal state of Europe.
Same would happen with an United army of Europe. Endless discussion where the weapons will be purchased, who will be in charge and who had to contribute how much.

So it's a nice idea but nothing more than a pipe dream. At least for the time being.

 

[B. Munich]

Aside from America never in a million years allowing such a thing to happen?

Well maybe it will be America (Trump) actually pushing Europe's hesitant and reluctant leaders to finally come up with a vision and of course act accordingly.

 

[Gehrman]

It wouldn't, I think that could also have happened and Putin would have backed down. He knew that wouldn't happen though as he's been testing our response for ages. It was probably a stronger response than he thought but, even forgetting the US and UK, if the EU had just said 'no' and immediately mobilised armies, navies, airforces etc. I have no doubt his bluff would have been called and there wouldn't have been any bloodshed.

Frankly i think your most likely right. However especially since post vietnam, Iraq v1 and v2 and Afghanistan, soldiers and their families dont want to throw away their lives in a foreign war. My half brother is a veteran of the first gulf war and it destroyed him. And even though the nuclear threat might very reasonably be a bluff, im not sure the countries in the zone want to find out not to mention the massive lack of popular support in western democratic countries. If it was a attack on their own countries, its different, however personally dying for Ukraine is different.

 

[tomaldinho1]

Frankly i think your most likely right. However especially since post vietnam, Iraq v1 and v2 and Afghanistan, soldiers and their families dont want to throw away their lives in a foreign war. My half brother is a veteran of the first gulf war and it destroyed him. And even though the nuclear threat might very reasonably be a bluff, im not sure the countries in the zone want to find out not to mention the massive lack of popular support in western democratic countries.

100% it's hindsight being wonderful talking, I was super scared at the time of Putin being a nutter and nuking someone. Now looking back, particularly seeing the limitations of the Russian army, even if it had been a conflict, i think it would have been very one sided and political pressure in Russia would have seen the end of Putin.

 

[B. Munich]

Russia will always be our neighbor and it will always be hungry for land

Isn't land one of the last things Russia would need? After they are biggest country in the world by some margin.

 

[Gehrman]

Isn't land one of the last things Russia would need? After they are biggest country in the world by some margin.

Considering their birth rates they need a massive influx of immigrants

 

[devilish]

Its a continent. There has been an invasion on 2nd poorest country in europe and isnt a part of Nato. The world doesn't consist of continents defending itself, but sovereign countries.

Russia and Ukraine have the two biggest armies in Europe. Russia is currently deploying 400k in Ukraine, 40k of which were in Avdiivka alone. Do you know how large the UK army is? Around 70k. Sure technology help to a point but this war had proved that war is a marathon not a run. What's the point of having the best military systems if they end up running out of ammo and there's a waiting list of 18 months+ to get more? That's what is happening with, for example, the Himars.

Europe solely depends on the US for military protection and that despite the US had made it ample clear that its priority lie in the Pacific then in Israel. That's crazy. The tragedy is that the EU genuinely spends huge amount of money in military. Yet that money is largely lost in waste. The US has 30 military systems that it needs to supply with ammo, learn how to use and maintain. Do you know how many military systems the EU have? Over 170. How on earth that is even sustainable!

 

[HTG]

Well maybe it will be America (Trump) actually pushing Europe's hesitant and reluctant leaders to finally come up with a vision and of course act accordingly.

Stalin wasn’t even able to create meaningful and lasting settlements in Siberia by force. The land must be habitable. Huge parts of Russia aren’t or barely are. Ukraine on the other hand is. And it’s incredibly fertile.

 

[devilish]

Isn't land one of the last things Russia would need? After they are biggest country in the world by some margin.

I am referring to military victories that often comes with land. The typical Russian can't care less of his standard of living. What they care about is that he lives in a country that can terrify the crap off its neighbors. That notion needs to be tested to be proven true which is exactly what the Russians had been doing since the Czars

 

[Gehrman]

Russia and Ukraine have the two biggest armies in Europe. Russia is currently deploying 400k in Ukraine, 40k of which were in Avdiivka alone. Do you know how large the UK army is? Around 70k. Sure technology help to a point but this war had proved that war is a marathon not a run. What's the point of having the best military systems if they end up running out of ammo and there's a waiting list of 18 months+ to get more? That's what is happening with, for example, the Himars.

Europe solely depends on the US for military protection and that despite the US had made it ample clear that its priority lie in the Pacific then in Israel. That's crazy. The tragedy is that the EU genuinely spends huge amount of money in military. Yet that money is largely lost in waste. The US has 30 military systems that it needs to supply with ammo, learn how to use and maintain. Do you know how many military systems the EU have? Over 170. How on earth that is even sustainable!

You cannot possibly quote the numbers of military personnel without mentioning that Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe stuck in a literal existential fight for their existence and sovereignty. If Britain, Germany, France, Spain and Italy were threatened ww2 style in this era the numbers would skyrocket.

 

[HTG]

You cannot possibly quote the numbers of military personnel without mentioning that Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe stuck in a literal existential fight for their existence and sovereignty. If Britain, Germany, France, Spain and Italy were threatened ww2 style in this era the numbers would skyrocket.

Exactly. The size of an army in peace times isn’t that meaningful. If war were to come, that’s quickly changed. As we have seen with Ukraine.
I mean Germany alone once send 3 million men to Russia. And our population was actually smaller then than it is now.

 

[B. Munich]

Can’t tell if Lineker was being sarcastic when he described our habit of beating lower division teams in the cup as impressive…

Considering their birth rates they need a massive influx of immigrants

That's definitely true. It's known that Russia are deporting thousands and thousands of Ukrainians from the occupied provinces.

Stalin wasn’t even able to create meaningful and lasting settlements in Siberia by force. The land must be habitable. Huge parts of Russia aren’t or barely are. Ukraine on the other hand is. And it’s incredibly fertile.

Siberia might not be suitable for settlements but it still has vast natural resources. It's the foundation for Russia's GDP as they don't have any meaningful modern industries.
Russia got around 143 million people and over 22 million square kilometers of land. Even if only 30% would be inhabitable, it's more than enough. I doubt Russia needs more agriculture.

I am referring to military victories that often comes with land. The typical Russian can't care less of his standard of living. What they care about is that he lives in a country that can terrify the crap off its neighbors. That notion needs to be tested to be proven true which is exactly what the Russians had been doing since the Czars

Not that sure. In November and December I have been Thailand and the place is full with Russians. They are by far the biggest group of Farangs (white guys).
First they must have money to afford an extended holiday. Therefore, there are plenty of Russians who have a lot to lose of this war escalates further.

I also didn't have the impression that these Russians were particularly fond of Putin's murderous war in the Ukraine. They rather enjoy their holiday and life instead of fighting for a megalomaniacal dictator.
That's just my impression of course

 

[devilish]

You cannot possibly quote the numbers of military personnel without mentioning that Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe stuck in a literal existential fight for their existence and sovereignty. If Britain, Germany, France, Spain and Italy were threatened ww2 style in this era the numbers would skyrocket.

Its army was nearly 292k in 2016 which is around to what Poland has currently. Turkey's army is 809k.

My point is not that of denigrating anyone but to show that war defense against Russia require a gargantuan in terms of human resources and finances, something no individual European country can do without conscription and huge financial sacrifices. Which is why we need to get our crap sorted and pool all our efforts together. Its ridiculous and equally dangerous that one of the richest continents in the world require the protection of a country outside of that continent.

 

[devilish]

That's definitely true. It's known that Russia are deporting thousands and thousands of Ukrainians from the occupied provinces.


Siberia might not be suitable for settlements but it still has vast natural resources. It's the foundation for Russia's GDP as they don't have any meaningful modern industries.
Russia got around 143 million people and over 22 million square kilometers of land. Even if only 30% would be inhabitable, it's more than enough. I doubt Russia needs more agriculture.


Not that sure. In November and December I have been Thailand and the place is full with Russians. They are by far the biggest group of Farangs (white guys).
First they must have money to afford an extended holiday. Therefore, there are plenty of Russians who have a lot to lose of this war escalates further.

I also didn't have the impression that these Russians were particularly fond of Putin's murderous war in the Ukraine. They rather enjoy their holiday and life instead of fighting for a megalomaniacal dictator.
That's just my impression of course

Those are the exiles ie those who fled the country. I assure you its a minority. As geopolitical expert Dario Fabbri likes to say, no regime is able to stay for long without the consensus of the majority of its people. Its also naive to believe that people of different cultures and countries share our same perspective of the world. What's crucial to us might be irrelevant to others and viceversa.

 

[Gehrman]

Its army was nearly 292k in 2016 which is around to what Poland has currently. Turkey's army is 809k.

My point is not that of denigrating anyone but to show that war defense against Russia require a gargantuan in terms of human resources and finances, something no individual European country can do without conscription and huge financial sacrifices. Which is why we need to get our crap sorted and pool all our efforts together. Its ridiculous and equally dangerous that one of the richest continents in the world require the protection of a country outside of that continent.

Ukraine has been preparing for this since Crimea in 2014. Your point lacks context.

 

[devilish]

Ukraine has been preparing for this since Crimea in 2014. Your point lacks context.

In 2013 it was 121.5k

 

[B. Munich]

Those are the exiles ie those who fled the country. I assure you its a minority.

That's what many of friends back in Germany say also.
I actually doubt it. Living in Thailand, especially in the tourist hotspots like Phuket or Pattaya isn't cheap anymore.

I don't believe Russians who fled the country actually have this kind of money to live here.
The Russians I saw were families often with kids. They were typical tourists and did the typical tourist stuff. A family of 4 will easily spend 5k to 6k Euro in a month here, not counting the cost of the flights.
These aren't poor refugees who tried to escape the war.

 

[harms]

Do you have any leak, info about the real reason(s) why Zaluzhny was dismissed? It looks to me like Zelenskiy shot himself a missile in the foot.

I'm not @demetre but from what I've read the most realistic scenario seems to be that Zelenskiy felt threatened by Zaluzhny's political potential. The lack of success of the counter-offensive didn't seem to affect public's perception of the army (and Zaluzhny) as they're rightly seen as heroes who give their all to defend their country. But it did affect Zelenskiy's own rating. Here's a survey that says that the army's (and, by proxy, Zaluzhny's) approval rating is between 93 to 95 % (depending on the region) and Zelenskiy's is 75-76%, which is still a lot but it's way less than it was at the beginning of the invasion.

Plus, there were always rumours that the two didn't get along very well — Zaluzhny did a lot of things his own way, didn't consult the presidential's office before giving big interviews (like the one for The Economist) etc. As the situation on the front is currently in a relative (bloody and horrible) stalemate, Zelenskiy probably decided that if there ever was the time for this move, it was now.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Gehrman]

That would be putins "hitler invaded russia moment".

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Vitro]

That's what many of friends back in Germany say also.
I actually doubt it. Living in Thailand, especially in the tourist hotspots like Phuket or Pattaya isn't cheap anymore.

I don't believe Russians who fled the country actually have this kind of money to live here.
The Russians I saw were families often with kids. They were typical tourists and did the typical tourist stuff. A family of 4 will easily spend 5k to 6k Euro in a month here, not counting the cost of the flights.
These aren't poor refugees who tried to escape the war.

They’re not refugees but they are the affluent. Russia is a poor and inequitable country and so are the large majority of its citizens, who are not able to leave the country or spend that kind of money. They are likely to be more educated and will have different views on politics.

 

[whitbyviking]

I know someone here in Norway who is part of the armed forces in intelligence and they have been preparing for years for a Russian attack and that timescale was mentioned. He’s not a full time soldier, but is involved in military planning on a regular basis.

 

[whitbyviking]

They’re not refugees but they are the affluent. Russia is a poor and inequitable country and so are the large majority of its citizens, who are not able to leave the country or spend that kind of money. They are likely to be more educated and will have different views on politics.

They are likely to be criminals or high ranking members of Putin’s cabal. A lot of the expensive tourist hotspots are full of Russians who are very clearly criminals or military, generally with obscenely expensive designer gear.

 

[VorZakone]

I know someone here in Norway who is part of the armed forces in intelligence and they have been preparing for years for a Russian attack and that timescale was mentioned. He’s not a full time soldier, but is involved in military planning on a regular basis.

Preparation is normal, all countries will have plans for different scenarios. Has your acquaintance suggested that they've received new intel that suggests a more serious Russian threat?

 

[the hea]

I know someone here in Norway who is part of the armed forces in intelligence and they have been preparing for years for a Russian attack and that timescale was mentioned. He’s not a full time soldier, but is involved in military planning on a regular basis.

Same is happening in Finland, the Baltic countris and Poland. Everyone bordering Russia is getting ready.

 

[Revan]

Watched the interview. As predicted, Tucker practically gave a blow job to Putin. Not very challenging questions, barely interrupting him when Putin would go on his monologues/rants. A bit of waste of 2 hours.

I think Putin played Tucker very well, knowing that a lot of people who watch Tucker are MAGA crowd who bizarrely are on the side of Russia.

 

[calodo2003]

Oh...

 

[B. Munich]

To me it's an open thread to the Baltic states.
Once Russia will come and ask for a few land passage to Kaliningrad, they better accept this demand or they will follow the same fate as Poland in 1939 who didn't bow to Hitler's demands for the return of the Danziger corridor.

Putin completely lost it and Carlson isn't up intellectually and missing the background knowledge to challenge, dig deeper and expose Putin's weird and confusing thoughts.

 

[calodo2003]

 

[the_cliff]