Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I know that is too of a sensitive topic with what you are going through, so i am not trying to wum you

As i said in my previous post it is just my opinion based on my logic of how big powers had been behaving through history

In ukraine, being maiden or any anti russian political clima, i am not saying that was meticulous orchestrated and organized it. But surely they influenced actors and the temperature of the moment. Is as easy to proof as many other claims from russia influencing other countries.
The US didn’t need to influence anything. What started out as spontaneous, casual protests against a presidential decision to stop pursuing European integration, organised through ad hoc social media posts, only turned into a revolution when the completely incompetent president first tried to outlaw dissent, then ordered the killing of his own people.

When a president shocks a country by turning the gendarmerie on its own people, in a country that had relatively little history of police brutality as other post-Soviet states did, overnight you went from parents wanting their kids home from the protests and urging them to be careful out there, to telling them to stay out there and that they would join them.

Yanukovych was the architect of his own downfall through his decision to continually escalate against his own people. Watching your own youth be violently killed is a powerful force in uniting your country against you.

Are you Spanish? What do you think would happen if the central government tried to again outlaw pro-Basque or pro-Catalan independence protests, then violently killed protesters who refused to disperse? You would unleash forces that would change the history of your country forever.
 
The war happened for calculated, self-serving geopolitical reasons deemed beneficial to Putin's regime (likely decided on by a small inner-circle) not because some abstract level of higher cultural brutality had been reached which means it's now inevitable. For the wider public outside of the political class, i'd have argued it's the vast depoliticised apathy that is a much bigger cause in allowing things to go this far, not widespread bloodthirst for rape and war, or really even any coherent ideological commitment to expansion and Russian supremacy among the greater public. There's enough of the latter aspects in a more incoherent form (and far more so lack of educated awareness of historic imperialism/colonialism that enables it) to win a significant chunk of support after the regime initiates something (especially relatively small scale like Crimea or Georgian conflict), however outside of a tiny number fringe ultranationalists/ hardline communists there wasn't any public desire to invade ex-empire/ussr countries and take back big chunks of land for revanchist reasons. You can see that in the way the regime has handled propaganda towards Ukraine since 2014: the "it's not a real country, it's our land historically and we're justified in taking control if they do x y z" aspect is there, but the real thrust for actually building to direct action is an appeal to people's humanity and ethnic solidarity (ethnic russians/pro-russians being unjustly persecuted/attacked in donbas).

Even something as brazenly cynical as the invocation of the great historical enemy (Nazis/fascists) ideology taking root in Ukraine ended up with greater precedence than appeals of the "take back that which belongs to us/which we once controlled" variety. While i fully believe in taking collective societal responsibility for allowing things to get to where they are, i don't feel the idea that has been pushed over the last year of this being a war russian people wanted just as much as Putin's/regime did really holds up to deeper scrutiny, though i understand its initial use in showing the war has gained notable support (how much is extremely hard to properly assess). It's nonetheless a very manufactured, depressingly avoidable situation caused by the elites, rather than something that had any widespread public backing (or even expectation of it actually happening, unlike other recent avoidable conflicts) beforehand. Though i do sadly think had Putin maintained some sort of democratic facade, and outwardly pushed a case to gain public support for a more contained invasion/reclamation of the supposedly persecuted seperatist areas of Donbas, he would get more than enough to claim it as the will of the people.

Putin himself is likely the same as he always was in his willingness to use force, if not his competence on what he can get away with/succeed in. His actions in entering this conflict, and the conduct of the army within it, are another predictable replay of what we all know can happen with long-term autocrats making increasingly irrational decisions - and how a military tends to decay to its worst aspects and act when under a regime that is both not very competent and increasingly authoritarian. Especially when faced with a stubborn insurgent element, or capable external opponent that has been propagandized at length.

But Russia is Putin. It doesn't matter whether the people wanted war or not, Russia did. I think we're pretty close to being in violent agreement here, the war was inevitable with Putin in power and everyone else sidelined and plied with propaganda.
 
You can't make peace with people who have castrated, tortured and raped people.

Russia should have settled for Crimea...now they will have to cower behind their old borders and hand over war criminals before anyone lets them rest.

Russism needs to be crushed once and for all otherwise we will be revisiting this conflict like we did with Vietnam....Afghanistan...Iraq...Syria etc.
Yep, that's the brutal reality. I'm sure that Ukrainians will never, ever forget this or the glee that Russians seemed to show while perpetrating these horrifying crimes.
 
The US didn’t need to influence anything. What started out as spontaneous, casual protests against a presidential decision to stop pursuing European integration, organised through ad hoc social media posts, only turned into a revolution when the completely incompetent president first tried to outlaw dissent, then ordered the killing of his own people.

When a president shocks a country by turning the gendarmerie on its own people, in a country that had relatively little history of police brutality as other post-Soviet states did, overnight you went from parents wanting their kids home from the protests and urging them to be careful out there, to telling them to stay out there and that they would join them.

Yanukovych was the architect of his own downfall through his decision to continually escalate against his own people. Watching your own youth be violently killed is a powerful force in uniting your country against you.

Are you Spanish? What do you think would happen if the central government tried to again outlaw pro-Basque or pro-Catalan independence protests, then violently killed protesters who refused to disperse? You would unleash forces that would change the history of your country forever.

It almost happened already and nothing happened .

You know nuch more on ukraine for obvious reasons. Maybe the US influence was not needed, but as exherted regardless, maybe to be 100% sure

ill stop here as again, is a too sensitive topic for you and other ukranians suffering as you do and doesnt change the fact the the sole culprit of this war is Russia and i hope you kick them out once and for all
 
Almost every neighbour of China except Pakistan and Russia is hostile to some degree. India, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Philipinnes...

I was referring to neighbours with significant land borders.

Finland had major trade ties with the USSR, politicians of both countries were quite cozy during the cold war, they even flew MiGs. Sweden took a pretty hard line on Vietnam (much stronger than any NATO member). They were also part of the neutral countries monitoring the Korean armistice.
I don't think either were de-facto NATO, even if they were west-facing.

This is true historically. In recent decades Sweden and Finland have been closely tied to NATO. One is now a full member. The other will be soon.
 
My guess is Putin won't show up.

“It’s a big dilemma for us,” the deputy president, Paul Mashatile, told the South African news website News24. “Of course, we cannot arrest him. It’s almost like you invite your friend to your house, and then arrest them. That’s why for us, his not coming is the best solution.”
“The South African government is very wary of an unprecedented situation of arresting a sitting head of state,” Mr. Mde said.
 
One has just joined NATO, another one will ascend soon. The other is Ireland.
And the two that joined wouldn’t have if not for the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia, the power with nukes that keeps invading its neighbors, is the threat.
It's a conventional threat. Not all outcomes of game theory end in nuclear apocalypse.
To be a threat, the threat must be credible. See above, Russia is a credible threat. It keeps invading neighbors and it is a nuclear power. Ukraine hasn’t and isn’t. To attempt to academically call pre-war Ukraine a threat to Russia is to completely ignore the actual reality of the situation.
 
I was referring to neighbours with significant land borders.



This is true historically. In recent decades Sweden and Finland have been closely tied to NATO. One is now a full member. The other will be soon.

Canada and Mexico have significant land borders with the US and are about as big a military threat to the US as Ukraine was to Russia. After the Ukrainians gave up their nukes they were never going to be a military threat.

They were however getting wealthier and had more freedom, even in an almost cripplingly corrupt political and economic system there was every chance they would become an example of post Soviet recovery like Poland. Given the close family ties between Ukrainians and Russians that message was going to permeate even a closed Putin ran autocracy.

I think that is why Putin was determined to intervene.
 
And the two that joined wouldn’t have if not for the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia, the power with nukes that keeps invading its neighbors, is the threat.

Membership was on the cards since the 90s. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was just the tipping point.

To be a threat, the threat must be credible. See above, Russia is a credible threat. It keeps invading neighbors and it is a nuclear power. Ukraine hasn’t and isn’t. To attempt to academically call pre-war Ukraine a threat to Russia is to completely ignore the actual reality of the situation.

Ukraine itself was never a threat to Russia. Ukraine becoming a staging post for NATO forces was/is however.
 
Membership was on the cards since the 90s. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was just the tipping point.



Ukraine itself was never a threat to Russia. Ukraine becoming a staging post for NATO forces was/is however.
6 NATO countries already have a border with Russia? If Finland
 
Membership was on the cards since the 90s. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was just the tipping point.
Finland or Sweden would not have joined NATO if it wasn't for Russias full scale invasion of Ukraine, a large majority of the people in both countries where against it before the invasion. The full scale invasion changed that overnight.
 
Canada and Mexico have significant land borders with the US and are about as big a military threat to the US as Ukraine was to Russia. After the Ukrainians gave up their nukes they were never going to be a military threat.

They were however getting wealthier and had more freedom, even in an almost cripplingly corrupt political and economic system there was every chance they would become an example of post Soviet recovery like Poland. Given the close family ties between Ukrainians and Russians that message was going to permeate even a closed Putin ran autocracy.

I think that is why Putin was determined to intervene.

In agreement here. I said in an earlier post that all the European border nations with Russia that have moved towards the west have increased their prosperity. Putin's Russia can't accept that and will do anything they can get away with to stop their former subjugates from following the trend.
 
That's a pretty sobering read. The spring offensive doesn't seem to be making the progress that was hoped for. Guess it was always going to be very difficult to attack well prepared defensive positions without overwhelming force.

I remember that taking back the area around Kherson took some time initially, and there were whispers of discontent.
 
Finland or Sweden would not have joined NATO if it wasn't for Russias full scale invasion of Ukraine, a large majority of the people in both countries where against it before the invasion. The full scale invasion changed that overnight.

That's true. Public opinion shifted after the invasion. Sweden and Finland have been ready to join NATO for a while though. It was just a waiting game until there was general public support to apply for membership.
 
Membership was on the cards since the 90s. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was just the tipping point.



Ukraine itself was never a threat to Russia. Ukraine becoming a staging post for NATO forces was/is however.
Nato membership for Ukraine was not on the table until after Russia started invading them.

Ukraine becoming a prosperous democracy was the real threat to Putin.
 
Nato membership for Ukraine was not on the table until after Russia started invading them.

Ukraine becoming a prosperous democracy was the real threat to Putin.

NATO membership has been on the table since the 90s.

Ukraine being prosperous without Russia is a threat to them. Like all their former satellite states that have prospered since the fall of the USSR.
 
Canada and Mexico have significant land borders with the US and are about as big a military threat to the US as Ukraine was to Russia. After the Ukrainians gave up their nukes they were never going to be a military threat.

They were however getting wealthier and had more freedom, even in an almost cripplingly corrupt political and economic system there was every chance they would become an example of post Soviet recovery like Poland. Given the close family ties between Ukrainians and Russians that message was going to permeate even a closed Putin ran autocracy.

I think that is why Putin was determined to intervene.

If Canada or Mexico got closer and closer to Russia, the US would of course view that as a threat. Nicaragua is viewed as a threat, without sharing a border and while being irrelevant on all metrics. Viewing something as a threat doesn't mean that you fear an invasion, it means someone is acting against your interests.
 
Membership was on the cards since the 90s. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was just the tipping point.
Ignoring the argument over if that’s true or not, none of that made them “de facto members” as you stated.
Ukraine itself was never a threat to Russia. Ukraine becoming a staging post for NATO forces was/is however.
NATO could already do that in Norway, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

And obviously, the great irony of this NATO bogeyman idea being that the number of countries NATO can stage in has now grown.
 
Ignoring the argument over if that’s true or not, none of that made them “de facto members” as you stated.

Sweden and Finland have been active in NATO operations for decades. It was always a matter of time until public opinion shifted to make it official.

NATO could already do that in Norway, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

And obviously, the great irony of this NATO bogeyman idea being that the number of countries NATO can stage in has now grown.

Yes and they have done. Ukraine is a much bigger player on the global stage than the Baltic states. And strategically, even more vital than Poland given the border they share with Russia.

I'm not saying Russia's strategy is sound. Far from it. They've made their situation far worse for themselves by thinking they could swiftly take Ukraine without the consequences they are now feeling. It's Putin's largest strategic error which may well lead to his downfall.
 
NATO membership has been on the table since the 90s.

Ukraine being prosperous without Russia is a threat to them. Like all their former satellite states that have prospered since the fall of the USSR.
I disagree with the first statement, it wasn’t a real possibility until Russia invaded.
 
I disagree with the first statement, it wasn’t a real possibility until Russia invaded.

It's been talked about for years. Realistically, it wasn't a possibility for fear of it antagonising Russia. That ship has sailed though so it should make the process a bit simpler.
 
Just out of curiosity, why do you say that when Hungary has been a particularly frustrating member of NATO? Do the Dutch have any close ties to Hungary ??

obviously I don’t want them to leave and side with Russia etc

No fierce against Russia (MH17)
 
Sweden and Finland have been active in NATO operations for decades. It was always a matter of time until public opinion shifted to make it official.
Realistically, it wasn't a possibility for fear of it antagonising Russia.
This kinda thing is why I’m not sure how to take your arguments right now.

You said Ukraine was a threat to Russia, then said it isn’t Ukraine, but NATO. Now you’ve said these states were de facto NATO members and joining was a foregone conclusion, but now are saying that them joining was unrealistic.
even more vital than Poland given the border they share with Russia.
They share a larger border with Russia, but Poland borders Kaliningrad, which is the HQ of Russia’s Baltic Fleet.
 
It's been talked about for years. Realistically, it wasn't a possibility for fear of it antagonising Russia. That ship has sailed though so it should make the process a bit simpler.

This kinda thing is why I’m not sure how to take your arguments right now.

You said Ukraine was a threat to Russia, then said it isn’t Ukraine, but NATO. Now you’ve said these states were de facto NATO members and joining was a foregone conclusion, but now are saying that them joining was unrealistic.

That was a reference to Ukraine specifically. Not Sweden/Finland.

I never argued that Ukraine itself was a direct threat to Russia. If it came across that way then I retract.

They share a larger border with Russia, but Poland borders Kaliningrad, which is the HQ of Russia’s Baltic Fleet.

If Kaliningrad was invaded it would be a huge strategic loss for Russia, and they could react in a way that might lead to WW3. But it's still not a direct threat to their "homeland". You can't continue a land assault against Russia from Kaliningrad.
 
I never argued that Ukraine itself was a direct threat to Russia. If it came across that way then I retract.
Well that’s good at least. I’m sure you’ll understand why I, and several other posters, thought so…
Ukraine moving towards the west is a threat to Putin's regime so he took what probably seemed like the most reasonable option to him.
It's a threat having a neighbour you share a huge border with outside of your influence. That's not hard to understand.
Of course it's a threat.
It's a conventional threat.
 
Ukraine moving towards the west is a threat to Putin's regime so he took what probably seemed like the most reasonable option to him.

It's a threat having a neighbour you share a huge border with outside of your influence. That's not hard to understand.

Of course it's a threat. If war happens and you need to secure your borders then having a friendly nation as a buffer reduces the resources required to secure the border. If the nation you share the border with is un-friendly or has your enemies based there then that is a major military threat. You do what you can to reduce that threat.

A land border was what I was referring to. You can send massive formations over land. It's by far the biggest risk you have militarily. None of the above comes close to that.

It's a conventional threat. Not all outcomes of game theory end in nuclear apocalypse.

Ukraine itself was never a threat to Russia. Ukraine becoming a staging post for NATO forces was/is however.

I don't know man, it just doesn't seem like a simple miscommunication error. But hey, to each their own. We both tend to conclude that the 40 million population country without nukes, who hasn't invaded anyone, wasn't planning to, had no important geopolitical allies pre war and was merely prospecting at the idea of joining a deffensive alliance, wasn't a threat for the 150 million population superpower with half of the world's nukes and the second best army in the world who is already in a deffensive alliance and is a member of the UN security council with veto power. And that's what's important in the end.
 
I remember that taking back the area around Kherson took some time initially, and there were whispers of discontent.
I am afraid the situation is a bit different now. We can't really predict this counter-offensive outcome based on the past one for a few reasons:

1). Kherson was a death trap for RA troops with a significant problem of resupplying them. Remember they didn't exactly fight that much near or inside the city. The current frontlines include vast amounts of open land mostly.
2). RA troops just ran away last year. They fight to death now.
3). Defensive trenches and obstacles for miles to key locations. UA seemed to try to use armors to maneuver around like the last time and it pretty much failed badly. This is a very new situation for them to figure out.
4). RA troops got their sh*t together.
5). More RA troops.

At this moment, UA might even have some trouble with Lyman's frontline, which they cleared in the last summer offensive attack. UA may overcome them at some point. But the situation they are in right now is pretty much nothing like what they were in last summer or fall, even with more advanced weapons.
 
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Well that’s good at least. I’m sure you’ll understand why I, and several other posters, thought so…
I don't know man, it just doesn't seem like a simple miscommunication error. But hey, to each their own. We both tend to conclude that the 40 million population country without nukes, who hasn't invaded anyone, wasn't planning to, had no important geopolitical allies pre war and was merely prospecting at the idea of joining a deffensive alliance, wasn't a threat for the 150 million population superpower with half of the world's nukes and the second best army in the world who is already in a deffensive alliance and is a member of the UN security council with veto power. And that's what's important in the end.

Ukraine itself was never a threat to Russia. Ukraine becoming a NATO staging post is though.

I'm not defending what Russia has done/is doing. They see Ukraine as nothing more than a buffer state and are willing turn it into no mans land rather than have it aligned to the West.
 
Ukraine itself was never a threat to Russia. Ukraine becoming a NATO staging post is though.

I'm not defending what Russia has done/is doing. They see Ukraine as nothing more than a buffer state and are willing turn it into no mans land rather than have it aligned to the West.

And in the process, Russia lost its biggest non-NATO European neighbor as Finland said enough is enough.
 


I wonder what he is on about exactly. I have seen this guy get quoted in this thread a few times. I'm not sure how credible this guy is. It appears that certain UA officials have recently given interviews where they made bad remarks about the West or something.

This growing trend of this kind of stuff coming from both sides between the UA and the West in recent weeks is a bit of concerning.