Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Buster15 said:
That is the spirit.
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Just to point this out: Still not a single country has come forward and said that Germany blocked their export request. There is only a source in the British MoD that claims that one such request was made and neither Germany nor that country whichever it was confirmed that this is true.

No country so far wants to be the first to deliver Leopard tanks, everyone waits for someone else to at least share the responsibility. Blaming Germany for not delivering is fine, blaming Germany for blocking exports is simply a convenient lie.
 
stefan92 said:
Just to point this out: Still not a single country has come forward and said that Germany blocked their export request. There is only a source in the British MoD that claims that one such request was made and neither Germany nor that country whichever it was confirmed that this is true.

No country so far wants to be the first to deliver Leopard tanks, everyone waits for someone else to at least share the responsibility. Blaming Germany for not delivering is fine, blaming Germany for blocking exports is simply a convenient lie.
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I think these requests are only put forward formally after receiving the green light behind the closed doors. At this point it’s quite clear that in the meeting rooms Germany has been denying such proposals and countries simply out of political tact are not doing it officially to spare the geopolitical embarrassment.
 
Rajma said:
I think these requests are only put forward formally after receiving the green light behind the closed doors. At this point it’s quite clear that in the meeting rooms Germany has been denying such proposals and countries simply out of political tact are not doing it officially to spare the geopolitical embarrassment.
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True, but that means that still everybody keeps being tactful and no one tries to enforce it.
 
VorZakone said:
100k military casualties for Ukraine is insane. I wonder how many professional soldiers they still have left compared to volunteers.
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I’m thinking an invading force having almost double the casualties is mind boggling.
 
VorZakone said:
100k military casualties for Ukraine is insane. I wonder how many professional soldiers they still have left compared to volunteers.
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That number for the Ukr has been floating since the December 2022. I certainly can't see the UKR to keep it up with the Russians.

Ukr do need better weapons sooner, really as the Russians are not running out of their combat capability for now despite some people kept saying that for months.
 
Raoul said:
I would imagine a majority of that number are injuries. 100k deaths wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility though imo.
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The Sun reported that US intelligence estimates total Russian military casualties in Ukraine as 188,000 as of January 20, suggesting a possible 47,000 Russians killed in action in less than a year of fighting.

47k deaths is a far lower number than what some have been reporting, but could well be a closer figure of the reality due to coming from the US intelligence?
 
stefan92 said:
Just to point this out: Still not a single country has come forward and said that Germany blocked their export request. There is only a source in the British MoD that claims that one such request was made and neither Germany nor that country whichever it was confirmed that this is true.

No country so far wants to be the first to deliver Leopard tanks, everyone waits for someone else to at least share the responsibility. Blaming Germany for not delivering is fine, blaming Germany for blocking exports is simply a convenient lie.
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Yeah, that's definitely not what's happening at all. Multiple countries and multiple news outlets have all said the same thing. It's evidently clear Germany is extremely reluctant and hesitant to offer the same support as other countries. They are also clearly holding up or even preventing other countries responses too. So it's not a convenient lie, it's more a clear fact.
 
VorZakone said:
100k military casualties for Ukraine is insane. I wonder how many professional soldiers they still have left compared to volunteers.
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The fact that they are adding WIA to the total sum makes it extremely unreliable. We could be talking about 30,000 to 60,000 killed, or 50,000 to 90,000. I don't know for instance if a wounded soldier can eventually return to the battlefield or perform other duties in the war.
 
stefan92 said:
Just to point this out: Still not a single country has come forward and said that Germany blocked their export request. There is only a source in the British MoD that claims that one such request was made and neither Germany nor that country whichever it was confirmed that this is true.

No country so far wants to be the first to deliver Leopard tanks, everyone waits for someone else to at least share the responsibility. Blaming Germany for not delivering is fine, blaming Germany for blocking exports is simply a convenient lie.
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Just a question. Does anyone know what is the reason that those countries who have acquired the Leopard Tanks from Germany have to get permission from Germany if they want to loan those tanks to a third party ?
 
Buster15 said:
Just a question. Does anyone know what is the reason that those countries who have acquired the Leopard Tanks from Germany have to get permission from Germany if they want to loan those tanks to a third party ?
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As far as I'm aware it's due to the restriction of not selling to any nation involved in a war. A provision everyone agreed on until a war they cared about showed up.
 
The United said:
The Sun reported that US intelligence estimates total Russian military casualties in Ukraine as 188,000 as of January 20, suggesting a possible 47,000 Russians killed in action in less than a year of fighting.

47k deaths is a far lower number than what some have been reporting, but could well be a closer figure of the reality due to coming from the US intelligence?
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Russia has basically non-existent medevac, most of their 300s end up 200s. It’s definitely more than 100k KIA alone.
 
Reading German-language commentary has been interesting.
Twitter translation to English:
Poland and others have tested whether Germany would even be willing to grant export permits. An official request that would then have been rejected would have meant an open split in the alliance that would be difficult to mend.
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Some quotes from German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung, with Google Translate:
"According to SZ information, security adviser Jake Sullivan called Scholz's foreign policy adviser, Jens Plötner, with whom he actually has a friendly relationship. The US administration describes the protest as violent."
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US Secretary of Defense "Lloyd Austin, who stayed longer than planned in the Chancellery, is said to have gotten into a heated argument with Wolfgang Schmidt. The meeting was said to have been 'tense'."
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"The tone in the US government was particularly sharp. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin tried in vain on Thursday in Berlin and on Friday in Ramstein to obtain a commitment to supply Leopard-2."
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"The information that the federal government publicly imposed conditions for the delivery of the Leopard to the USA before the Ramstein meeting caused particular irritation in Washington."
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Buster15 said:
Just a question. Does anyone know what is the reason that those countries who have acquired the Leopard Tanks from Germany have to get permission from Germany if they want to loan those tanks to a third party ?
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It's a usual clause in weapon export deals that a re-export to a third country has to be granted by the original exporters. No one wants to be killed by his own weapons, so this is basically to ensure that weapons will never get into hostile hands. It applies to basically everything, be it the Leopards that need a German export permission, Patriot and F-16 hat need a US permission etc.
langster said:
Yeah, that's definitely not what's happening at all. Multiple countries and multiple news outlets have all said the same thing. It's evidently clear Germany is extremely reluctant and hesitant to offer the same support as other countries. They are also clearly holding up or even preventing other countries responses too. So it's not a convenient lie, it's more a clear fact.
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No country forced Germany to actively deny such an export license. Everyone so far just accepts that the German government has doubts and doesn’t even ask.

It's obvious that other countries have their doubts as well and by not forcing Germany to really make an official and definite decision they can just hide behind Germany's reluctance.

If a PiS politician critices Germany it is like when @frostbite does it - they just hate Germany and use every opportunity to lash out against Germany. It's becoming tiresome.

But don't get me wrong, I would like my government to be more decisive and supportive of Ukraine, so that we wouldn't have to discuss such diplomatic shenanigans now.
 
stefan92 said:
It's a usual clause in weapon export deals that a re-export to a third country has to be granted by the original exporters. No one wants to be killed by his own weapons, so this is basically to ensure that weapons will never get into hostile hands. It applies to basically everything, be it the Leopards that need a German export permission, Patriot and F-16 hat need a US permission etc.

No country forced Germany to actively deny such an export license. Everyone so far just accepts that the German government has doubts and doesn’t even ask.

It's obvious that other countries have their doubts as well and by not forcing Germany to really make an official and definite decision they can just hide behind Germany's reluctance.

If a PiS politician critices Germany it is like when @frostbite does it - they just hate Germany and use every opportunity to lash out against Germany. It's becoming tiresome.

But don't get me wrong, I would like my government to be more decisive and supportive of Ukraine, so that we wouldn't have to discuss such diplomatic shenanigans now.
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Did Habeck say in concrete words that Germany wouldn't block other countries?
 
stefan92 said:
No country forced Germany to actively deny such an export license. Everyone so far just accepts that the German government has doubts and doesn’t even ask.

It's obvious that other countries have their doubts as well and by not forcing Germany to really make an official and definite decision they can just hide behind Germany's reluctance.

If a PiS politician critices Germany it is like when @frostbite does it - they just hate Germany and use every opportunity to lash out against Germany. It's becoming tiresome.

But don't get me wrong, I would like my government to be more decisive and supportive of Ukraine, so that we wouldn't have to discuss such diplomatic shenanigans now.
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It isn't in anybody's interest right now to embarrass Germany so openly and split NATO by forcing them to publicly refuse the export licence, especially if the end game isn't to just pointlessly embarrass Germany/Scholz but to actually get that export licence. It also isn't in those countries interests to close off a major exporter of military hardware to them in the future by so flagrantly ignoring a contract.

I don't like the phrase 'no smoke without fire' but can't help but feel this is clearly one of those times. Its a bit silly to hide behind the 'nobody has formally asked yet' because its becoming increasingly clear the only reason countries haven't formally asked yet is because Germany have made it clear they will say no.

There were never really transfer stories involving Messi either. It wasn't because he wasn't wanted by others but that his camp and Barcelona I'm sure made it known that they had no interest in moving/ selling.
 
The United said:
The Sun reported that US intelligence estimates total Russian military casualties in Ukraine as 188,000 as of January 20, suggesting a possible 47,000 Russians killed in action in less than a year of fighting.

47k deaths is a far lower number than what some have been reporting, but could well be a closer figure of the reality due to coming from the US intelligence?
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US Intelligence isn’t the source of 47k KIA, you’re just dividing a number from The Sun by a random number.
 
Equating Messi and his stay at Barca to Germany and its stance on supporting Ukraine is peak Caf.....

Just when you had thought you had seen it all :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
VorZakone said:
Did Habeck say in concrete words that Germany wouldn't block other countries?
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Habeck said Germany shouldn't block it. Formally his ministry and the chancellor's office both have to sign such a request. Considering how other deliveries went there is little doubt that Habeck would sign and full pressure would be on Scholz.

That's why I think a country that really wants to push the issue should make the step forward and initiate the process. It would ensure that the German chancellor (and let's be clear, he and his party are the problem, no other reasonable party in Germany is) is under pressure both from outside and inside to finally act.

But without such a request the coalition partners have no leverage against the SPD. An export license signed by Habeck would change that, but without that I don't think the topic moves forward.
 
langster said:
Equating Messi and his stay at Barca to Germany and its stance on supporting Ukraine is peak Caf.....

Just when you had thought you had seen it all :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Except that wasn't what was being equated.....
 
stefan92 said:
Habeck said Germany shouldn't block it. Formally his ministry and the chancellor's office both have to sign such a request. Considering how other deliveries went there is little doubt that Habeck would sign and full pressure would be on Scholz.

That's why I think a country that really wants to push the issue should make the step forward and initiate the process. It would ensure that the German chancellor (and let's be clear, he and his party are the problem, no other reasonable party in Germany is) is under pressure both from outside and inside to finally act.

But without such a request the coalition partners have no leverage against the SPD. An export license signed by Habeck would change that, but without that I don't think the topic moves forward.
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Well, Ben Wallace revealed one country has initiated that process. We'll see how that story develops then. Could have been a pressure tactic from Wallace though I wouldn't like it when a British government official would openly lie to pressure Germany. Not the kind of tactics I approve of.
 
Prolonging this war is clearly beneficial for Russia. There are enough helpless people to be mobilized, and economy, while slowly deteriorating, still has enough ability to produce a lot of equipment and support the army.

Hope US and allies have a plan and ready to help Ukraine till the end (which means pushing Russia out from occupied territories).

For now it looks like Russia took the initiative, has nothing to lose and is determined to make another attempt to take full control over Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions at least.
 
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VorZakone said:
Well, Ben Wallace revealed one country has initiated that process. We'll see how that story develops then. Could have been a pressure tactic from Wallace though I wouldn't like it when a British government official would openly lie to pressure Germany. Not the kind of tactics I approve of.
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As I mentioned above noone confirmed that. I believe it has been either a misunderstanding about the nature of a discussion Wallace himself didn't attend or it is an ongoing process that hasn't yet been concluded and is kept confidential until a decision is made. I don't think it is a lie on purpose.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
US Intelligence isn’t the source of 47k KIA, you’re just dividing a number from The Sun by a random number.
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Oh I see. But if one to three ratio holds here, the KIA figure would still be way lower than the 100k KIA figure that showed up a lot online.
 
Abizzz said:
As far as I'm aware it's due to the restriction of not selling to any nation involved in a war. A provision everyone agreed on until a war they cared about showed up.
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Thank you. But it would not be selling. Just a loan.
 
Solovyov: "For a man, war is a lot more comfortable than peace. Everything is clear over there."


 
CNN reporting:
A senior Ukrainian official in the east of the country says the armed forces are in control of current positions but that "moving forward is very difficult" because the Russians have brought up substantial reserves.

Referring to the north-south frontline running between Svatove and Kreminna, Hayday said: "Moving forward there is very difficult because the occupiers have brought up huge reserves. And as I have said many times before -- everything is very thoroughly mined there."

"There are huge numbers of them [Russian troops in the Svatove-Kreminna area]. And a very large number of mobilized. And they are constantly being thrown into the offensive - almost all the time....And the huge problem is that there are just an incredible number of them. That is why every meter of the Luhansk region is extremely difficult to gain."
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VorZakone said:
Does she have the decision-making power with regards to allowing/blocking Leopard deliveries?
Anyway, your turn Poland.
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I don't know anything about German politics but if a foreign minister goes on record and says they won't stand in the way of the deliveries I would assume some kind of decision has been made.
 
VorZakone said:
Does she have the decision-making power with regards to allowing/blocking Leopard deliveries?
Anyway, your turn Poland.
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No she hasn't. Weapon export licenses have to be signed by the minister of economy and the chancellor.

But these statements make it quite hard for the chancellor to act in another way as she (and economy minister Habeck) did state in public now.
 
Investigators in recent weeks have focused on the Russian Imperial Movement, a radical group that has members and associates across Europe and military-style training centers in St. Petersburg, the officials said.

They added that the group, which has been designated a global terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department, is believed to have ties to Russian intelligence agencies. Important members of the group have been in Spain, and the police there have tracked its ties with far-right Spanish organizations.
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