Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

VorZakone said:
What I fear is that if it becomes "more real" for the Russian population, they'll rally behind Putin.

In my opinion it's therefore in Ukraine's interest to not involve the Russian people. Don't give them reasons to blame you. Let them organically realize that they should be angry at Putin.

PR-wise it's also much better for Ukraine to maintain the fact that they're only trying to push Russia out of their country, not to escalate to the Russian homeland.
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Exactly. It should be Russian recruitment officers who are seen forcefully taking fathers away from their children, not Ukrainian missiles killing the children.
 
Walrus said:
I was quite clear on avoiding civilian casualties. The spirit of the post - and that I maintain - is that if Ukraine/the West can find a way to 'make it real' for the everyday Russians, then it will be advantageous. Ukraine is constantly being bombarded, power outages, air raid sirens etc, whilst the average Russian doesnt seem to be affected much at all. Its been a year and Putin doesnt seem to care much about the sanctions, or companies pulling out - their economy may be very slowly collapsing, but very slowly isnt good enough when Ukraine is being bombed everyday.
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How you avoid civilian casualties attacking urban areas?
 
Walrus said:
I was quite clear on avoiding civilian casualties. The spirit of the post - and that I maintain - is that if Ukraine/the West can find a way to 'make it real' for the everyday Russians, then it will be advantageous. Ukraine is constantly being bombarded, power outages, air raid sirens etc, whilst the average Russian doesnt seem to be affected much at all. Its been a year and Putin doesnt seem to care much about the sanctions, or companies pulling out - their economy may be very slowly collapsing, but very slowly isnt good enough when Ukraine is being bombed everyday.
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The making it real bit is already being accomplished in slow motion through sanctions and by Putin himself through his mass mobilization and the subsequent fleeing of Russians to avoid being sent into the meat grinder.
 
Walrus said:
I was quite clear on avoiding civilian casualties. The spirit of the post - and that I maintain - is that if Ukraine/the West can find a way to 'make it real' for the everyday Russians, then it will be advantageous. Ukraine is constantly being bombarded, power outages, air raid sirens etc, whilst the average Russian doesnt seem to be affected much at all. Its been a year and Putin doesnt seem to care much about the sanctions, or companies pulling out - their economy may be very slowly collapsing, but very slowly isnt good enough when Ukraine is being bombed everyday.
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You mean like sanctions or rather something even more substantial such as being mobilized and dragged into a war they don't want to fight?

On a more serious note, the people being mobilized seem to consist primarily of non-Russian ethnicities. I think the Russians living in metropolitan areas feel less involved and that might be something that needs to be changed but if Russia's war efforts continue like this, it is only a matter of time until they mobilize those people, too. Plus they'll feel the sanctions hitting hard as well.
What I would want to see more is the informational war being fought at their door step. Let them see the heartbreaking stories of murdered and raped civilians, show them how Putin sends the mobilized into the meat grinder and how Russian POWs are treated with much more respect than their Ukrainian counterparts. I'm actually surprised we aren't seeing more of this. I'd think Russia isn't up to Western standards in terms of cyber security.
 
Walrus said:
I assume you are referring to my post which started with "Whilst I would never advocate for the targeting and killing of civilians"
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And follow it up with suggesing bombing urban areas as retribution. There is no bombing urban areas without civilian casualties, if you drop bombs into cities there will be civilian casualties.
If Ukraine started doing what you suggest they would become exatly what they are described as in Russian propaganda. They need to be better then that or the support in the west will go away very quickly, no country wants their weapons used to kill civilians.
 
Krakenzero said:
If he was confident in a long term win, he won't even be bothered with diplomatic action.
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Why exactly? If invasion went fully according to his plan, he would be "pushing for peace" this way since march. Long term he will want economic sanctions lifted regardless of how the invasion goes.
 
Again, I question people talking about how Russian can't do this for long and how their armies and weapons were gone.

They are still doing it and will do it while gaining more land than the UKR has for the past few weeks (?). I think people are really underestimating what Putin (and his people) will endure to keep going.

The support does not seem to be good or fast enough for the UKR which is obvious and the fatigue will hit them really hard very soon. The UKR should really have gotten Kreminna and Savtone (sp?) last year to keep the momentum. At this point, it does not look good for the UKR more so than the Russians.
 
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The United said:
Again, I question people talking about how Russian can't do this for long and how their armies and weapons were gone.

They are still doing it and will do it while gaining more land than the UKR has for the past few weeks (?). I think people are really underestimating what Putin and (his people) will endure to keep going.

The support does not seem to be good or fast enough for the UKR which is obvious and the fatigue will hit them really hard very soon. The UKR should really have gotten that city and Savtone (sp?) last year to keep the momentum. At this point, it does not look good for the UKR more so than the Russians.
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It's a damn good thing I'm not a western politician. I'm over this.
 
The United said:
Again, I question people talking about how Russian can't do this for long and how their armies and weapons were gone.

They are still doing it and will do it while gaining more land than the UKR has for the past few weeks (?). I think people are really underestimating what Putin (and his people) will endure to keep going.

The support does not seem to be good or fast enough for the UKR which is obvious and the fatigue will hit them really hard very soon. The UKR should really have gotten Kreminna and Savtone (sp?) last year to keep the momentum. At this point, it does not look good for the UKR more so than the Russians.
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Unless one has been consuming copious amounts of Kremlin propaganda, basically the opposite is true.
 
Raoul said:
Unless one has been consuming copious amounts of Kremlin propaganda, basically the opposite is true.
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How is the opposite true here?

I mean the actual Kremlin propaganda is all about killing Satans and nuking half of the world etc. Pointing out the reality from the field that seemed to be different from what people are saying here is much easier things to do.
 
The United said:
How is the opposite true here?

I mean the actual Kremlin propaganda is all about killing Satans and nuking half of the world etc. Pointing out the reality from the field that seemed to be different from what people are saying here is much easier things to do.
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Except you're not really pointing out the reality from the field. The Russians have lost far more than the Ukrainians have and have limited capacity to replenish their troops and weapons due to a lack of trained soldiers and western sanctions on Russian industry. The Ukrainians on the other hand have nearly limitless resources from Europe and the US, and can continue picking off troops the Russians throw onto the battlefields. The only reason things have slowed of late is due to weather.
 
Raoul said:
Except you're not really pointing out the reality from the field. The Russians have lost far more than the Ukrainians have and have limited capacity to replenish their troops and weapons due to a lack of trained soldiers and western sanctions on Russian industry. The Ukrainians on the other hand have nearly limitless resources from Europe and the US, and can continue picking off troops the Russians throw onto the battlefields. The only reason things have slowed of late is due to weather.
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Who told you exactly that the Russian have lost far more? All the western intelligence recently hinted that the causalities are very much comparable while withholding the real causalities of the UKR for obvious reasons. Even if the Russians are losing twice as much as the UKR, look at their population.

And the Russians may have limited capacity to replenish troops and weapons but they are using tons of missiles which were produced very lately, plugging holes in their frontline while gaining lands lately. Now, the UKR are preparing to resist the Russians offensive while not being able to make their own to regain some territories.

The initiatives are very much coming from the Russians. That's after people here talked about how they would be on the backfoot for months. The reality here is that the Russians adapted and seemed to be dedicating the momentum here.

The UKR does NOT have limitless resources from the west. I am not sure how people are not taking consideration of the fatigue that the UKR are having or will have very soon.

I don't think I am the one who is consuming anyone's propaganda too much here. Not to mentioned how I pointed out the Bekhmut was very important for both sides weeks ago while everyone was saying it was useless. Well, it was so useless that there were reports of UKR losing triple digits of men daily defending it because according to some western intelligence that if the UKR loses it, it will be harder for them to defend the cities around behind that line. And the Russians are gaining some foothold there little by little with their army of convicts.
 
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The United said:
Who told you exactly that the Russian have lost far more? All the western intelligence recently hinted that the causalities are very much comparable while withholding the real causalities of the UKR for obvious reasons. Even if the Russians are losing twice as much as the UKR, look at their population.
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Do you think the Ukrainians have lost upwards of 200k troops in this war as the Russians have. ? (Note: There is more than one source reporting this number)



The United said:
And the Russians may have limited capacity to replenish troops and weapons but they are using tons of missiles which were produced very lately, plugging holes in their frontline while gaining lands lately. Now, the UKR are preparing to resist the Russians offensive while not being able to make their own to regain some territories.

The initiatives are very much coming from the Russians. That's after people here talked about how they would be on the backfoot for months. The reality here is that the Russians adapted and seemed to be dedicating the momentum here.
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Their troops are untrained. They are literally plucking people off the streets against their will with little to no training, will to fight, or equipment to sustain themselves.

The United said:
The UKR does NOT have limitless resources from the west. I am not sure how people are not taking consideration of the fatigue that the UKR are having or will have very soon.

I don't think I am the one who is consuming anyone's propaganda too much here.
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Its not propaganda - the US and Europe have pumped in more money than the annual Russian defense budget into Ukraine, with much more where that came from.
 
@The United Did you sincerely miss the Kharkiv and Kherson counter offensives, and the fact that Russians lost approximately half the territory they gained since last February? Their current gains are measured in meters, while UA is preparing the next coordinated offensive for the Spring.
 
Raoul said:
Do you think the Ukrainians have lost upwards of 200k troops in this war as the Russians have. ? (Note: There is more than one source reporting this number)





Their troops are untrained. They are literally plucking people off the streets against their will with little to no training, will to fight, or equipment to sustain themselves.



Its not propaganda - the US and Europe have pumped in more money than the annual Russian defense budget into Ukraine, with much more where that came from.
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No, I don't believe the UKR lost more than 200k troops, and you literally quoted the Russian casualty figure of 180000 before implying they lost more than 200k? I also stated that their casualty numbers for both were comparable based on Western intelligence hints.

It means nothing if their troops are untrained or convicts. What matters is that they can gather the numbers which matters and have shown that here for the last few months. The UKR troops would be in the same condition, and the Russians are advancing right now more so than the UKR.

The US and Europe have pumped in more money into their own defense, not for the Ukraine. Putin does not have to care about his citizen welfare. He can just use all the money for the military and it will make the war going for a very long time which some people don't seem to believe.
 
The Firestarter said:
@The United Did you sincerely miss the Kharkiv and Kherson counter offensives, and the fact that Russians lost approximately half the territory they gained since last February? Their current gains are measured in meters, while UA is preparing the next coordinated offensive for the Spring.
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No, I did not miss those offensives. But I said, people missed the point here.

Don't you think the Russians adapted after those defeats and now they are making the initiatives which is a concern? We have been talking about the UKR counter offensive for months but what is happening is that they are preparing to resist the Russians offensive while getting wasted at Bekhmut area and boggled down for months in the north.

There is no good news recently for the UKR at all. We all are hoping there will be some. SOON.
 
The United said:
No, I did not miss those offensives. But I said, people missed the point here.

Don't you think the Russians adapted after those defeats and now they are making the initiatives which is a concern? We have been talking about the UKR counter offensive for months but what is happening is that they are preparing to resist the Russians offensive while getting wasted at Bekhmut area and boggled down for months in the north.

There is no good news recently for the UKR at all. We all are hoping there will be some. SOON.
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What did you actually expect, sweep the whole Russian forces in one go? Why do you think is so much talk about sending tanks right now? Further gains are predicated on heavy armor, since the Russian have dug in the Donbas. They understood they can't go further and decided to consolidate what they had.

A little perspective is needed.One year ago, who in their wildest acid dreams would have even suggested we might have the current balance of power, or even that the conflict would last one year.
 
The United said:
Who told you exactly that the Russian have lost far more? All the western intelligence recently hinted that the causalities are very much comparable while withholding the real causalities of the UKR for obvious reasons. Even if the Russians are losing twice as much as the UKR, look at their population.

And the Russians may have limited capacity to replenish troops and weapons but they are using tons of missiles which were produced very lately, plugging holes in their frontline while gaining lands lately. Now, the UKR are preparing to resist the Russians offensive while not being able to make their own to regain some territories.

The initiatives are very much coming from the Russians. That's after people here talked about how they would be on the backfoot for months. The reality here is that the Russians adapted and seemed to be dedicating the momentum here.

The UKR does NOT have limitless resources from the west. I am not sure how people are not taking consideration of the fatigue that the UKR are having or will have very soon.

I don't think I am the one who is consuming anyone's propaganda too much here. Not to mentioned how I pointed out the Bekhmut was very important for both sides weeks ago while everyone was saying it was useless. Well, it was so useless that there were reports of UKR losing triple digits of men daily defending it because according to some western intelligence that if the UKR loses it, it will be harder for them to defend the cities around behind that line. And the Russians are gaining some foothold there little by little with their army of convicts.
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You might be getting fatigued but I've not seen any evidence that western governments might. Support has been consistently increasing and most are ramping up their military capabilities to counter this new threat. I don't think there is anything to worry about here.

I'm also not worried about Russia taking tiny fractions of land around Bakhmut, this is the comment that makes it sound like you might be a bit susceptible to Russian propaganda. They are doing their best to make these gains sound like some sort of huge victory. Despite everything Russia has thrown at this small town for the past six months, at incredible cost, Bakhmut still holds. So I find it quite laughable anyone can suggest this area as evidence Russia has the momentum.

I'd suggest if anything has control of the momentum, its the weather. I did hope to see some offensives on frozen ground but that's not happening. Maybe its because Ukraine doesn't have the capability, maybe because Russia has adapted and re-organised properly or maybe it is just the weather, we can't know either way. What I do know is that Ukraine isn't taking its land back 1km at a time, it will degrade Russia's ability to fight in an entire area, then push in hard, forcing a general retreat. It appears right now that things are very much gearing (literally) up for the Spring.

They have also shown they are willing to give up ground if that's what is needed to keep the attrition rate in their favour and from everything we've seen, from both sides, the attrition rate is well in their favour. They might well be losing 3 digit numbers per day but from the figures Ukraine and the US are putting out Russia is losing almost 4 digits per day.
 
Carolina Red said:
Uh, what?
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People mentioned that those troops are untrained. And do we think that UKR are properly trained as well?

Both armies lost most of their professional soldiers at this point already. So the advantage if there is any is minimal. And it does not matter who they are as long they can gain advantage in the battle field which the Russians clearly was able to achieve at this moment so far.
 
The United said:
People mentioned that those troops are untrained. And do we think that UKR are properly trained as well?

Both armies lost most of their professional soldiers at this point already. So the advantage if there is any is minimal. And it does not matter who they are as long they can gain advantage in the battle field which the Russians clearly was able to achieve at this moment so far.
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Yes, I believe that the Ukrainians have a decided training advantage over the Russians and have had one since the first day of the war.

And it absolutely matters how trained they are when Russia is having to fight an offensive campaign to try to win this war. Modern offensive operations require a high level of training to be successful.
 
The Firestarter said:
What did you actually expect, sweep the whole Russian forces in one go? Why do you think is so much talk about sending tanks right now? Further gains are predicated on heavy armor, since the Russian have dug in the Donbas. They understood they can't go further and decided to consolidate what they had.

A little perspective is needed.One year ago, who in their wildest acid dreams would have even suggested we might have the current balance of power, or even that the conflict would last one year.
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The bold part is what I am concerned because the West probably think that the situation was getting worse for the UKR. We hope it is not too late.

I am not saying the UKR are doing a bad job, the opposite in fact but I am not getting where some people are getting all the Russians are losing and going to lose soon etc stuff. I am asking and thinking if I am the only one who does not see it that way.
 
Carolina Red said:
Yes, I believe that the Ukrainians have a decided training advantage over the Russians and have had one since the first day of the war.

And it absolutely matters how trained they are when Russia is having to fight an offensive campaign to try to win this war. Modern offensive operations require a high level of training to be successful.
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The way I see is all Russians have to do is keep the defensive line on those territories and they can do it for very long. It will be on the UKR to do offensive.

That is assuming that Russians are not getting trained right now. All the evidence are pointing that they sent tons of untrained troops to plug and gain some (minimal) territories which they achieved while training some reserve to a good level to do another major offensive. All these were being done while halting a major UKR counter offensive in the north. And they will pull out more numbers soon.

Then there are weekly missiles attack which they are getting more creative with the missiles which were supposed to be out of stock months ago or something like that.
 
The United said:
People mentioned that those troops are untrained. And do we think that UKR are properly trained as well?

Both armies lost most of their professional soldiers at this point already. So the advantage if there is any is minimal. And it does not matter who they are as long they can gain advantage in the battle field which the Russians clearly was able to achieve at this moment so far.
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While you go over the top at times for some reason, you raise valid points with respect to the quality of troops currently flowing in is very poor from Ukrainian side as well. Barely any training is provided to the mobilized in certain cases and it will definitely slow down any potential counter offensives. That’s why it’s absolutely vital to provide them with the technological upper hand as swiftly as possible in all military areas and in proper numbers to avoid this costly attritional battle that’s only ever gonna result in the stalemate. The fatigue is also a factor for Ukrainian population is much greater as the war is ongoing on their soil, and while there’s plenty of good things happening in Ukrainian communities, they still have persistently high level of corruption / lack of competence that hasn’t been dealt with properly within the military, defense, police, government, authorities, etc., and with each passing day it ever so slightly but kills the motivation of population at large to go on and fight.
 
Simbo said:
You might be getting fatigued but I've not seen any evidence that western governments might. Support has been consistently increasing and most are ramping up their military capabilities to counter this new threat. I don't think there is anything to worry about here.

I'm also not worried about Russia taking tiny fractions of land around Bakhmut, this is the comment that makes it sound like you might be a bit susceptible to Russian propaganda. They are doing their best to make these gains sound like some sort of huge victory. Despite everything Russia has thrown at this small town for the past six months, at incredible cost, Bakhmut still holds. So I find it quite laughable anyone can suggest this area as evidence Russia has the momentum.

I'd suggest if anything has control of the momentum, its the weather. I did hope to see some offensives on frozen ground but that's not happening. Maybe its because Ukraine doesn't have the capability, maybe because Russia has adapted and re-organised properly or maybe it is just the weather, we can't know either way. What I do know is that Ukraine isn't taking its land back 1km at a time, it will degrade Russia's ability to fight in an entire area, then push in hard, forcing a general retreat. It appears right now that things are very much gearing (literally) up for the Spring.

They have also shown they are willing to give up ground if that's what is needed to keep the attrition rate in their favour and from everything we've seen, from both sides, the attrition rate is well in their favour. They might well be losing 3 digit numbers per day but from the figures Ukraine and the US are putting out Russia is losing almost 4 digits per day.
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I do wish I could see some of those.

I mean people have to stop accusing others of listening to those when someone raised a different perspective. Seriously.
 
The United said:
I am not saying the UKR are doing a bad job, the opposite in fact but I am not getting where some people are getting all the Russians are losing and going to lose soon etc stuff. I am asking and thinking if I am the only one who does not see it that way.
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MIght be a bit of fatigue on our part because we've heard what you are saying a few times before. There was no hope for Ukraine before Russia's entire northern operation collapsed. Russia was "winning" and gaining land right before they collapsed in Kharkiv Oblast. Russia was gaining ground and "had the momentum" right before they retreated from most of Kherson Oblast.

You might be right this time though, who really knows.
 
Rajma said:
While you go over the top at times for some reason, you raise valid points with respect to the quality of troops currently flowing in is very poor from Ukrainian side as well. Barely any training is provided to the mobilized in certain cases and it will definitely slow down any potential counter offensives. That’s why it’s absolutely vital to provide them with the technological upper hand as swiftly as possible in all military areas and in proper numbers to avoid this costly attritional battle that’s only ever gonna result in the stalemate. The fatigue is also a factor for Ukrainian population is much greater as the war is ongoing on their soil, and while there’s plenty of good things happening in Ukrainian communities, they still have persistently high level of corruption / lack of competence that hasn’t been dealt with properly within the military, defense, police, government, authorities, etc., and with each passing day it ever so slightly but kills the motivation of population at large to go on and fight.
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It is not going over the top. It is just that the flow of information seems very heavy on the side of as I said how the Russians will pack their bag soon for months.
 
Simbo said:
MIght be a bit of fatigue on our part because we've heard what you are saying a few times before. There was no hope for Ukraine before Russia's entire northern operation collapsed. Russia was "winning" and gaining land right before they collapsed in Kharkiv Oblast. Russia was gaining ground and "had the momentum" right before they retreated from most of Kherson Oblast.

You might be right this time though, who really knows.
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I have never said there was no hope for the UKR. The Russians being collapsed on the northern part could be predicted once the Russians had to retreat from Kyiv. However the situation of the east and south are way different than the north based on the size of cities and the local population support for the Russians (at least before the war).

And people again missed the point that the Russians seemed to adapt after those collapses and quickly stabilized the situation for better.
 
Simbo said:
MIght be a bit of fatigue on our part because we've heard what you are saying a few times before. There was no hope for Ukraine before Russia's entire northern operation collapsed. Russia was "winning" and gaining land right before they collapsed in Kharkiv Oblast. Russia was gaining ground and "had the momentum" right before they retreated from most of Kherson Oblast.

You might be right this time though, who really knows.
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Svatove/Kreminna is the axis that should see the next Ukrainian success. But obviously it is much more difficult to break through against massive numbers during the winter.
 
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