Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

frostbite said:
I don't think the F-16s will be used for dogfights. Dogfights are fun in the movies, but in a real war, modern aircraft use missiles. The F-16 is just a platform for missiles and radar. And the US has developed many different missiles for the F-16, some with a very long range. For example, some variants of the following have a range of over 1,000 km.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-158_JASSM

You can find the position of the parked bomber using satellites or ground observers, then you send the F-16 to fire the missile, and the bomber (or the ship, or the artillery) is no more.

No comparison with the MiGs. Yes, the F-16 as a platform was developed 50 years ago, but the weapons it carries are very modern.
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Yes that is quite true.
But it is important to bear in mind that the F16 is not optimised for the ground attack role.
Out of the European forces, the Tornado is still the most capable ground attack fighter jet because of it radar and weapons. It is a similar age to the F16 and only Germany and Italy still operate it.
 
Eurotrash said:
Leopards will make it to Ukraine, with or without Germany’s consent.
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Keep in mind that still no one officially asked Germany about consent. Despite a lot of talk still nobody is trying to enforce this.
 
stefan92 said:
Keep in mind that still no one officially asked Germany about consent. Despite a lot of talk still nobody is trying to enforce this.
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So just to clarify here, Ben Wallace is lying?

A country that operates German-made Leopard tanks has asked for permission from Berlin to give the heavy armour to Ukraine, Britain's defence secretary has revealed.

Ben Wallace did not say which nation he was referring to but it is likely to be Poland, which has made clear it would like to send some of its Leopard 2 main battle tanks to support Ukrainian forces in their fight against Russia.
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https://news.sky.com/story/berlin-a...tanks-to-ukraine-ben-wallace-reveals-12790563
 
40,000 convicts? Fecking hell.

More broadly, the US assesses that tensions between the Russian Defense Ministry and Wagner are increasing as Russian President Vladimir Putin increasingly relies on Wagner to carry out operations in Ukraine. There are around 50,000 Wagner Group fighters currently deployed to Ukraine, according to Kirby, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts.

“Wagner is becoming a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries,” Kirby said, and the US has intelligence suggesting that the Russian Defense Ministry “has reservations” about Wagner’s heavy recruitment from Russian prisons.
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https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/20/...rm=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk
 
VorZakone said:
40,000 convicts? Fecking hell.


https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/20/politics/us-russia-wagner-group/index.html?utm_content=2023-01-20T18:55:22&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk
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So Russian invading forces consist in:

-200,000 professional soldiers initially appointed for the task, most of which are already dead, captured, surrendered, defected or unable to fight, and the rest is mentally broken after almost one year of poorly led war experience and the unilateral termination of their 6 months of service contracts.
-300,000 recruits with no experience in battle, no real stakes in the war's motives (with most of them reportedly from far away regions), lack of discipline and cohesion, poorly equipped and trained in a hurry, only partially mobilized to the battlefront.
-10,000 nutters who are in it for the money and -I assume- for the killing/raping/looting power trip.
-40,000 inmates who have no loyalty to the cause, are used as canon fodder and for the most part would prefer to be back in jail.
 
goalscholes said:
Concerning



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That's the problem with drifting towards fascism. Once you begin the process, you're incentivized to consolidate power for fear of being overthrown, which is precisely where Putin is headed and his pal Orban won't be too far behind. As Putin becomes weaker, his aspiring acolytes will become vulnerable after realizing he's no longer able to protect them.
 
Raoul said:
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I believe that, despite the support for Ukraine not being as good as it could be, Putin did not expect it to be as strong as it is. I am sure that he felt that he could blackmail many of the European countries with his gas supplies.

That is why it is so important that the support to Ukraine is increased.
 
TwoSheds said:
It's not possible surely. They'd have to be losing 3-4000 people a week.
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He has been utilizing a WW1 style approach of throwing a high volume of bodies into the conflict, so it wouldn’t at all surprise me if the losses were closer to the number published than not.
 
Raoul said:
He has been utilizing a WW1 style approach of throwing a high volume of bodies into the conflict, so it wouldn’t at all surprise me if the losses were closer to the number published than not.
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But as in, 3-4000 people a week since the conflict began. Every week. I mean if they have loads of deserters or something and then they're including them as well I guess it's not impossible but it doesn't seem likely. Where are they all deserting to and why isn't it being reported?
 
TwoSheds said:
It's not possible surely. They'd have to be losing 3-4000 people a week.
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They are losing 700-900 people a day for quite a while now according to Ukraine's ministry of defence daily updates. Losing not necessarily in terms of deaths but them being removed from the combat action, wounded, as I understand.
 
TwoSheds said:
But as in, 3-4000 people a week since the conflict began. Every week. I mean if they have loads of deserters or something and then they're including them as well I guess it's not impossible but it doesn't seem likely. Where are they all deserting to and why isn't it being reported?
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I would imagine a majority of that number are injuries. 100k deaths wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility though imo.
 
goalscholes said:
Concerning



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Raoul said:
That's the problem with drifting towards fascism. Once you begin the process, you're incentivized to consolidate power for fear of being overthrown, which is precisely where Putin is headed and his pal Orban won't be too far behind. As Putin becomes weaker, his aspiring acolytes will become vulnerable after realizing he's no longer able to protect them.
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This does make it easier when the rest of NATO decides what to share with Hungary and how to work with them. At least since Orban has been in power and likely longer, the rest of NATO has to assume that anything shared with Hungary will probably end up with the Russians. Now they know that's the case and plan accordingly. Without the existing relationships and knowledge of the dismissed officers, NATO can reasonably reduce cooperation and information sharing.
 
Sir Matt said:
This does make it easier when the rest of NATO decides what to share with Hungary and how to work with them. At least since Orban has been in power and likely longer, the rest of NATO has to assume that anything shared with Hungary will probably end up with the Russians. Now they know that's the case and plan accordingly. Without the existing relationships and knowledge of the dismissed officers, NATO can reasonably reduce cooperation and information sharing.
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Isn't throwing someone out of NATO easier than throwing them out of the EU? Does Nato also require unanimity in it's political decisions?
Orban is not going to stop his drop into fascism until the price to pay is too steep.
 
I’m not to sure what to think about the scenario of German tanks named after a big car being used in the Ukraine anno 2020’s. There’s something oddly familiar about it.
 
One more heated issue is brewing between Germany and Lithuania regarding stationing of Germany’s troops in Lithuania. There was a mutual agreement reached for German brigade (3,500 size) to be permanently located in Lithuania back in April. However, Germany has gone back on this and then came up with their own “interpretation” of this agreement, where the troops would be based at home and deployed quickly if necessary. Seems like Germany is doing its best to undermine the trust of its partners and regional security, this can have long-lasting implications, and this Leopard fiasco is only strengthening the view in the region that Germany would through the partners under the bus if shit would hit the fan.
 
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