Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Spark said:
Without ever knowing until long after the war ends, I feel like there are so many levels to the whole Bakhmut/Soledar arena. On one hand you have Wagner, who want to win on their terms at all costs so there's that internal Russian intrigue. On the other, you have the Ukrainians who are likely more than happy holding onto these as long as possible so that it pins the best Russian forces in a favourable position (losing Bakhmut won't change anything in the long run). For all the troops that the UAF are committing to the area, it allows others to train on all the new weapons systems that are being delivered at this moment. Everything in this war so far suggests that UAF are not making any rash decisions at all, so just have to trust their process.

I think the Russians will take Bakhmut over the coming days and weeks, but it'll be a phyrric victory that undermines their efforts elsewhere. A bit like how their grinding struggle in the east for Lysychansk and surrounding areas back in June/July was followed by large Ukrainian counter offensives.

All the while, Bakhmut is as close to the modern equivalent of Verdun as I think you can practically get. The videos are appalling, I couldn't imagine what it's like to be there.
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It reminds me of battle of Vukovar in 1991 during Croatian Homeland war. Greatly unnumbered and circled defenders held on against a far superior Serb/Yugoslav army in numbers and weapons for about 3 months. The town was raised to the ground and eventually fell but the heroic defenders gave the whole country time to equip and be prepared for further war and it exhausted Serb forces so after that occupied a far less of Croatia from then on until it all became a status quo in 1992.

Of course in Bahmut numbers dont go so much in Russia's favor, and of Ukrainians are armed far better than Vukovar defenders but the parallel is about the point you made about Russian being pinned down there and losing equipment and manpower in vast numbers.
 
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Meanwhile at the northern border nature is on Ukraine's side. The swamps at the Belarussian border are much worse than usual. Why? Because of beaver dams (which were always destroyed in peace times, but not during the war)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-swamps-make-attack-belarus-unlikely-now-2023-01-12/

I am now waiting for Russian propagandists to claim that these beavers were artificially created in the famous biolabs to act as biological weapons. A disturbing act by the satanists and Nazis.
 
Rajma said:
Even managed to destroy Bradleys which Ukraine haven’t even received yet, amazing.
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Unlike the Baghdad Bob era before social media, everything this guy says is easily debunked in seconds on Twitter (and Telegram), which calls into question why the Russians even bother sending him before the cameras anymore.
 
Raoul said:
Unlike the Baghdad Bob era before social media, everything this guy says is easily debunked in seconds on Twitter (and Telegram), which calls into question why the Russians even bother sending him before the cameras anymore.
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Domestic audience and foreign idiots who believe their propaganda no doubt.
 
Raoul said:
Unlike the Baghdad Bob era before social media, everything this guy says is easily debunked in seconds on Twitter (and Telegram), which calls into question why the Russians even bother sending him before the cameras anymore.
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Again, it’s purely for internal zombieland where most of the population above 40 still have TVs as their only source of information.
 
German defence minister Lambrecht to step down?

BERLIN, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Germany's defence minister Christine Lambrecht plans to resign, a government source said on Friday, potentially adding to chancellor Olaf Scholz's problems as he cautiously seeks to step up military support for Ukraine.

Lambrecht, a member of Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD), aimed to resign next week and had already informed Scholz about her decision, a government source said, confirming a report by Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-defence-minister-lambrecht-step-down-bild-2023-01-13/
 
stefan92 said:
I do hope that's true. But I also do fear who might succeed her. Due to the internal logic one could expect another SPD woman, and there seems to be no one qualified for the job, so again someone stupid will get the job... Sadly the only good alternatives are members of FDP or Green party.
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Question: Is there someone among German MPs with a history of service in the armed forces? I may hold some personal bias about the topic, but I would feel better if the minister of defence of any country is someone with some degree of experience in the service prior to a political career. Before the last reshuffling of the cabinet in Canada, our previous minister of defence for 6 years was a former lieutenant-colonel with 26 years of service.

Anyway, I genuinely wonder what the new direction will be under the new minister of defence.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Question: Is there someone among German MPs with a history of service in the armed forces? I may hold some personal bias about the topic, but I would feel better if the minister of defence of any country is someone with some degree of experience in the service prior to a political career. Before the last reshuffling of the cabinet in Canada, our previous minister of defence for 6 years was a former lieutenant-colonel with 26 years of service.

Anyway, I genuinely wonder what the new direction will be under the new minister of defence.
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At first, it is not necessary to be an MP to become minister in Germany. Usually they are but it's not unusual if they aren't.

That said there definitely are some MPs who have military experience, but probably none are candidates for the job. As I said Scholz promised to have an even distribution of male and female ministers (in the name of equality) and due to the coalition contract between SPD, FDP and Greens the SPD is responsible for defence. So if there isn't a major reshuffle which also involves other minister positions it has to be an SPD woman again. And as I said there are none. In general the SPD performance in this government is (from my point of view) a complete disaster.

And I doubt that there will be a completely new direction - Lambrecht was a disaster, yes, but everything she did was in line with Scholz' cautious acting in military questions. Probably the only mistake she really made from his point of view was the failure to correctly start the process of buying new ammunition.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Question: Is there someone among German MPs with a history of service in the armed forces? I may hold some personal bias about the topic, but I would feel better if the minister of defence of any country is someone with some degree of experience in the service prior to a political career. Before the last reshuffling of the cabinet in Canada, our previous minister of defence for 6 years was a former lieutenant-colonel with 26 years of service.

Anyway, I genuinely wonder what the new direction will be under the new minister of defence.
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Military service? In East Germany or West Germany? A 25 year old in 1990 is now 57. I am not sure if West Germany had many people in the military because basically the whole country was protected by the Americans, but the East Germany had a lot of military, Stasi, various police, etc. I have no idea what happened with all those people... did they keep their careers after 1990? Perhaps some of them went into politics?
 


Kyiv and Kharkiv have already been hit this morning by ground launched missiles and now there are reports that 7 TU-95 bombers are in the air so another cruise missile barrage might be incoming.
 
the hea said:


Kyiv and Kharkiv have already been hit this morning by ground launched missiles and now there are reports that 7 TU-95 bombers are in the air so another cruise missile barrage might be incoming.
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Yeah initial missiles seem to have traveled from Belarus…
 
the hea said:


Kyiv and Kharkiv have already been hit this morning by ground launched missiles and now there are reports that 7 TU-95 bombers are in the air so another cruise missile barrage might be incoming.
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Those morning strikes where a result of ballistic missiles from Belarus territory, that explains why the air alert did not manage to catch them.
 
Moston Red said:
We need to give Ukraine fighter jets. F-16s or something. Take the TU-95s out at range.
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Unfortunately F-16s wouldn't be able to do anything about these bombers, they launch their standoff missiles from over 1000km from the front, far out of reach from any enemy aircrafts.
They could of course be an asset in shooting down the missiles once they have entered the airspace over central Ukraine.
 
Rajma said:
Those morning strikes where a result of ballistic missiles from Belarus territory, that explains why the air alert did not manage to catch them.
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Seems like nothing is confirmed yet as to what type of missile was being used



If it was indeed Iskander-M that was being used it would be the first time they have been used since late summer/early autumn and could be an indication that Russia are still able to produce these missiles.
 
the hea said:
Unfortunately F-16s wouldn't be able to do anything about these bombers, they launch their standoff missiles from over 1000km from the front, far out of reach from any enemy aircrafts.
They could of course be an asset in shooting down the missiles once they have entered the airspace over central Ukraine.
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ok gotcha, and I guess there’s no way to get closer without entering Russian airspace.
 
"Whisper it, but Europe is winning the energy war with Putin".
“For now, things look good,” an EU diplomat agreed. “The Russians only had one weapon in the energy war: gas. It’s a strong weapon, with strong short-term impact. But they’ve used it already." The diplomat said that the EU's "arsenal" was more diverse, including: boosting renewables, getting supplies from elsewhere and taking steps to use less energy. "But we can’t afford to be complacent.”

That is a message echoed across EU capitals. “It’s Europe 1, Russia 0,” said one EU energy minister — but the contest is far from over. For months now, European leaders have warned that next winter could be more dangerous than this one, with a tight global LNG market and the possibility of a resurgent China, reopening after COVID lockdowns, competing for a limited supply.
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https://www.politico.eu/article/eur...r-putin/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter
 
TwoSheds said:
Their economy is really going to take some hammering if they send that many fighting age men off to the front. Amazing what people will tolerate.
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There will come a tipping point moment for the Russian economy imo. We haven't seen it yet, but its on the horizon.
 
Raoul said:
At about 45 seconds you can see the scale of the devastation of the strike on civilians

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Every Western politician should see this video before opening their mouths to spit the "we don't want to provoke the Russians" line. Putin and his cohorts are war criminals.
 
No conventional western weapon should be off the table in support of Ukraine. Jets, tanks, attack helicopters the lot. Would also love to see the British sky sabre sent over along with Patriot systems.
 
A former commander from the Wagner group has defected to Norway and says he is willing to testify on the war crimes commited by Prighozin.

 
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