Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

A nice little speedup: Orginally a three way deal was made between Germany, Greece and Ukraine - Greece would deliver BMPs to Ukraine and in return get 40 Marder from Germany. Half of that is now delayed, so that 20 Marder intended for Greece can be send to Ukraine, as Germany now promised Marder to Ukraine.

All Marder units to be delivered have been inactive for years, so all need refurbishment which is why the numbers can't be delivered immediately, so every delivery shuffle in favour of Ukraine is helpful.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I wonder how much of that is due to conservation of ammo etc, and how much due to simply not having the necessary equipment/manpower. Either way it means less dead Ukrainians.
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I think its simply a reflection of them not having unlimited ammo. They used so much of it flagrantly in the beginning that they are beginning to run low, which is doubly problematic given they are under extreme sanctions and increasingly lacking in domestic ability to replenish.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I wonder how much of that is due to conservation of ammo etc, and how much due to simply not having the necessary equipment/manpower. Either way it means less dead Ukrainians.
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They had huge cold war Soviet ammo stockpiles and they squandered that “inheritance” by now through indiscriminate high intensity shelling which lasted for almost a year. That was one-off gift from Soviet times that they were sitting on for a long-time which gave them a significant competitive advantage at an early stages of the war. They military doctrine is built on having massive artillery firepower, while their current domestic production is no where near Soviet era.
 
Rajma said:
They had huge cold war Soviet ammo stockpiles and they squandered that “inheritance” by now through indiscriminate high intensity shelling which lasted for almost a year. That was one-off gift from Soviet times that they were sitting on for a long-time which gave them a significant competitive advantage at an early stages of the war. They military doctrine is built on having massive artillery firepower, while their current domestic production is no where near Soviet era.
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You dont know what they have or not. Neither anyone here (so im not attacking you, im just stating that no one knows) The stock piles of artillery, misiles, tanks, rifles, bulletw and everything would been depleted many times, after reading many posters even at the second month of the war. The truth is that russia keeps pounding, fortunately ukraine is pounding harder
 
4bars said:
You dont know what they have or not. Neither anyone here (so im not attacking you, im just stating that no one knows) The stock piles of artillery, misiles, tanks, rifles, bulletw and everything would been depleted many times, after reading many posters even at the second month of the war. The truth is that russia keeps pounding, fortunately ukraine is pounding harder
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5 fold decrease in shelling compared to the peak in spring/summer from Russian side is a fact though, and explanation is pretty straightforward.
 
Rajma said:
5 fold decrease in shelling compared to the peak in spring/summer from Russian side is a fact though, and explanation is pretty straightforward.
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Not exactly. We don't know whether Russia is actually out of ammo or whether they are for example struggling with logistics to get existing stockpiles to the front.

Considering the sorry state of many Russian trucks and the many successful GMLRS strikes on Russian logistics hub this theory would also be plausible.
 
Rajma said:
5 fold decrease in shelling compared to the peak in spring/summer from Russian side is a fact though, and explanation is pretty straightforward.
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Could be for what you said or because winter and waiting for the new soldiers changed their strategy or any other assumption that anyone with 0 knowledge here has about russian stockpiles and strategy
 
stefan92 said:
Wagner filled their ranks with prisoners. The first groups to attack a position which are likely to suffer heavy casualties might consist of those they want to get rid of, while the actual attack that has a chance to succeed due to gathered information seem to be the best Wagner has.
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Actually by the sounds of it regular army has joined in storming Soledar as well, seems like they’re really short of any kind propaganda material (wins) for internal consumption.
 
I was listening to a military man on Youtube the other day. Countries at war do not run out of artillery rounds. What they do is change strategy before that happens. Russia might becoming more selective in what to hit.
 
One of the guys is wearing a Ukrainian kit = war crime but that’s just par for the course for the orcs. Hopefully he catches some good old friendly fire.
 
Solovyev and friends are annoyed by a pragmatic guest who cautions against nuking France, Poland, and the UK :lol:

 
An Italian newspaper citing a “military source” worried about the West actually depleting their own primary stocks with all these passing on to Ukraine.
 
Bepi said:
An Italian newspaper citing a “military source” worried about the West actually depleting their own primary stocks with all these passing on to Ukraine.
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I didn't know that artillery shells were unobtanium and can't be manufactured again.
 
Bepi said:
An Italian newspaper citing a “military source” worried about the West actually depleting their own primary stocks with all these passing on to Ukraine.
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Its a common story that most papers have done at least headline on at this point. I don't think there is much to "worry" about personally, they are being used for what they were intended. Stocks will be replenished as and when governments see fit to do so. No doubt manufacturers will be chomping at the bit to agree government contracts, if it isn't already arranged in some countries.
 
Polish President Duda just announced that Poland will hand over a certain amount of Leo tanks to Ukraine as part of the broader coalition. Hopefully the floodgates will open up now.
 
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Rajma said:
Polish President Duda just announced that Poland will hand over a certain amount of Leo tanks to Ukraine as part of the broader coalition.
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Now that's gonna be interesting. This is either a breach of contract, or Poland did get green light from Germany for that transfer.

In the latter case this would open the possibility for lots of countries to provide Leopard tanks, and if he talks about a broad coalition I think that's probably the case.
 
There have been talk of a coalition between Leopard using countries to create a pool of tanks from their stocks to give to Ukraine, Sounds like this is happening now.

A company of tanks is what Poland is giving according to Twitter that sould mean something like 14-17 tanks.
 
The United said:
This time, it sounds serious.
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So far the battle isn't over, but it doesn't look good for Ukraine. There even is a video already showing Wagner's head Prigozhin below the front line (in the tunnels of the salt mine, referring to Ukrainians being 2km above him). But of course that might be fake, there are plenty of mines in Russia where you could film such a video.

But so far the AFU haven't left Soledar and keep fighting.
 
Bepi said:
An Italian newspaper citing a “military source” worried about the West actually depleting their own primary stocks with all these passing on to Ukraine.
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Unlike Russia, western nations aren't under sanctions and have the wherewithall to replenish what they use. But given that they are at war with Russia (albeit as a proxy war), they are actually using their munitions for the reason they were created in the first place.
 

Surovikin didn’t last too long. The strategy of his to bombard the Ukraine has resulted in influx of western AD systems in huge numbers while depleting strategic stocks of cruise missiles and failing to blackout Ukraine amidst the winter.
 
Rajma said:

Surovikin didn’t last too long. The strategy of his to bombard the Ukraine has resulted in influx of western AD systems in huge numbers while depleting strategic stocks of cruise missiles and failing to blackout Ukraine amidst the winter.
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He can return to his career as a Dr. Evil impersonator
 
Rajma said:

Surovikin didn’t last too long. The strategy of his to bombard the Ukraine has resulted in influx of western AD systems in huge numbers while depleting strategic stocks of cruise missiles and failing to blackout Ukraine amidst the winter.
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While that strategy failed did the Russian troops on the ground not have too many setbacks during Surovikin's time in charge. Yes, they did lose Kherson, but even that was not as chaotic as other retreats and they were on losing grounds when he started.

Let's hope they start actung stupid again under Gerasimov's command.
 
UK to supply Ukraine with tanks (likely Challengers).


Kasparov as always on point, I have been saying the same from day 1.
 
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Real Name said:
This is a concern. Holding out in Bahmut and getting weapons but is it worth it in regards to man power. Russians have still about 100.000 soldiers or something yet to be thrown to the front.
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I think its fairly normal for Wagner to make occasional gains in certain areas. Although smaller in number, they are well trained from past experience. The Ukrainians simply have continue executing their plans to continue chipping away at territory in the south and east and be prepared for another offensive to reclaim all lost territory once the weather clears up in March.
 
Rajma said:
UK to supply Ukraine with tanks (likely Challengers).


Kasparov as always on point, I have been saying the same from day 1.
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The cynic in me thinks the west are using this as an opportunity to completely deplete Russia at the expense of Ukraine. Had the west done all of that from day 1, Russia would still have its army as well as its ’aura’
 
Raoul said:
I think its fairly normal for Wagner to make occasional gains in certain areas. Although smaller in number, they are well trained from past experience. The Ukrainians simply have continue executing their plans to continue chipping away at territory in the south and east and be prepared for another offensive to reclaim all lost territory once the weather clears up in March.
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Unfortunately, due to slow and low supplies from the west in terms of heavy weapons means that Russia will gather resources for another offensive first, and only after Ukraine withstands this final push they will have the window for a final counteroffensive, likely in the early summer. It was an arm race (for the next offensive attempt) and west has failed Ukraine as it had all the momentum.
 
Not sure how those different tanks they’ll be getting will work out logistically speaking on the front, I’d rather countries would have just agreed to deliver a big quantity of one model of which there are huge stocks (e.g. Abrams).
 
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