Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

According to a former major who spoke on CNN, the West (or whoever they are) is concerned that Patriot missiles may chase or strike aircraft over Russian territory and that things may get escalated and nasty.

Giving one probably wouldn't constitute much of a threat or difference, but if we start seeing a lot more of them in Ukraine, I think that will show that the West considers hitting (military) targets on Russian soil to be fair game.
 
The United said:
According to a former major who spoke on CNN, the West (or whoever they are) is concerned that Patriot missiles may chase or strike aircraft over Russian territory and that things may get escalated and nasty.

Giving one probably wouldn't constitute much of a threat or difference, but if we start seeing a lot more of them in Ukraine, I think that will show that the West considers hitting (military) targets on Russian soil to be fair game.
Click to expand...

Highly unlikely given how patriots work. They would be protecting Ukrainian cities and only take out missiles that approach them.
 
Raoul said:
Highly unlikely given how patriots work. They would be protecting Ukrainian cities and only take out missiles that approach them.
Click to expand...
Depends on how close to the frontline they would be deployed, it's an unlikely but possible scenario.

The United said:
that will show that the West considers hitting (military) targets on Russian soil to be fair game.
Click to expand...
Well we know the West does, even the German government made such a statement after the airfield attack on Engels etc
 
Raoul said:
Highly unlikely given how patriots work. They would be protecting Ukrainian cities and only take out missiles that approach them.
Click to expand...
Well, I would not rule out the UKR forces doing things that are not expected. They have done a few things of those to say the least. I say good for them if they do it.

However, the concern appeared to be legitimate for some, not only with this system but also with other long-range western systems, obviously.
 
stefan92 said:
Depends on how close to the frontline they would be deployed, it's an unlikely but possible scenario.


Well we know the West does, even the German government made such a statement after the airfield attack on Engels etc
Click to expand...
I think they are starting to open up about the possibility, though not exactly backing it up with action yet.
 
Sweet Square said:
The Russian have nukes and the goal for the US is to turn this war into something similar as the Soviet Afghan war(Bleed the Russians dry over time).
Click to expand...

Well, that didn't turn out THAT well in the long term, didn't it? I mean, they did bleed them dry only to fight another proxy war with them 40 years later. Plus the recoil of an attack in US soil, and another long occupation war.
 
The United said:
According to a former major who spoke on CNN, the West (or whoever they are) is concerned that Patriot missiles may chase or strike aircraft over Russian territory and that things may get escalated and nasty.

Giving one probably wouldn't constitute much of a threat or difference, but if we start seeing a lot more of them in Ukraine, I think that will show that the West considers hitting (military) targets on Russian soil to be fair game.
Click to expand...
For that you need THAAD and that's not going to Ukraine like ever.
 
The United said:
Well, I would not rule out the UKR forces doing things that are not expected. They have done a few things of those to say the least. I say good for them if they do it.

However, the concern appeared to be legitimate for some, not only with this system but also with other long-range western systems, obviously.
Click to expand...

Don't see how its a concern at all, they've already destroyed planes in Russian territory, among other things. Fair game.
 
Simbo said:
Don't see how its a concern at all, they've already destroyed planes in Russian territory, among other things. Fair game.
Click to expand...
Obviously, from their own perspective, which is quite different from ours.

Not that we know more, it has to be said.
 
The United said:
According to a former major who spoke on CNN, the West (or whoever they are) is concerned that Patriot missiles may chase or strike aircraft over Russian territory and that things may get escalated and nasty.
Click to expand...
Ukraine already hits military targets in Russia as well as shelling some near-border towns like Bryansk etc. What would change? And what is "nasty" exactly, it's not like Russia holds itself back on anything, nuclear strikes excluded.
 
NotThatSoph said:
@the hea the border dispute is heating up!

893joxavsc7a1.jpg
Click to expand...
:lol:
 
Rajma said:
Click to expand...

Yes... the state of the ministry of defence is just abysmal. They fecked up to plan enough budget for buying ammunition, then wrote a letter to the finance ministry, essentially begging for money, which that declined (had to decline, because there wasn't a legal base for that plea), but offered help restructuring the defense bureaucracy :lol:
 
the hea said:
This is fantastic work by the NY Times, they have been able to link the killings of civilians in Bucha to the 234th guards parachute regiment from Pskov and they are able to show that the killings where sanctioned by their commanding officer.
Click to expand...

That is simply stunning. What an incredible piece of forensic journalistic work.
 
The United said:
Obviously, from their own perspective, which is quite different from ours.

Not that we know more, it has to be said.
Click to expand...

The difference here that they may be regarding is that it would be a US supplied weapon taking action in Russian territory and that could be seen differently. Russian propagandists would no doubt abuse the fact, but they should never be taken seriously.

The vast majority of wars are fought with foreign supplied weapons. I like to hope some Russians wonder sometimes, considering their only friends are N. Korea and Iran, whereas Ukraine has the whole free world on their side, that they might just be the bad guys.
 
Thread by a retired General and intelligence officer on the expansion of the Russian military that was announced by Putin and Shoigu.
 
the hea said:
Thread by a retired General and intelligence officer on the expansion of the Russian military that was announced by Putin and Shoigu.
Click to expand...

The Russian population as a whole will become even poorer than the sanctions would have made them. The way that country has treated it's population as disposable pieces has always blown my mind.
 
harms said:
Ukraine already hits military targets in Russia as well as shelling some near-border towns like Bryansk etc. What would change? And what is "nasty" exactly, it's not like Russia holds itself back on anything, nuclear strikes excluded.
Click to expand...
Who knows what kind of game they are playing at this point?

My uneducated guess is that Putin would "escalate" it faster with everything he has. Some from the west might think that they can't keep up with it, at least in the short term.

All of the ammunition shortages may indicate that the West does not yet have the industry capacity to fight this war, or that most people are unwilling to commit much with a recession looming. It is not exactly hard to imagine that some might want to somehow freeze the war, even if they don't say it out loud. And Putin will continue to throw bodies. Even if those new Russian recruits don't have good equipment, UKR still needs ammunition to shoot them.
 
Last edited:
The United said:
Who knows what kind of game they are playing at this point?

My uneducated guess is that Putin would "escalate" it faster with everything he has. Some from the west might think that they can't keep up with it, at least in the short term.

All of the ammunition shortages may indicate that the West does not yet have the industry capacity to fight this war, or that most people are unwilling to commit much with a recession looming. It is not exactly hard to imagine that some might want to somehow freeze the war, even if they don't say it out loud. And Putin will continue to throw bodies. Even if those new Russian recruits don't have good equipment, UKR still needs ammunition to shoot them.
Click to expand...
The issue is, Russia has already escalated it with more or less everything that it has — as I've said, nuclear threat excluding.
 
harms said:
The issue is, Russia has already escalated it with more or less everything that it has — as I've said, nuclear threat excluding.
Click to expand...
I mean, how many of Russia's troops are in Ukraine right now?

If he adds more, let's say 500k more (Russia does have more population and Putin will start using the western weapons blowing up on the Russian soil to manipulate more people to join the armed forces, if not already), wouldn't that be more "escalation" in a sense? Using nuclear weapons is not the only solution left. He can, as I said, throw more bodies, and it will get more difficult for the UKR forces, not to mention for the Russians as well. Not that he would care about those. The evident of UKR's counter offensive being stalled after the Russian's mobilization showed that it works for now.

Some people in the west are expecting that the Russian troops will be stronger next year, then you have Belarus's possible invasion. Putin still has the resources and methods to keep it going and under the control for awhile yet. The west probably can't do it that long or response fast enough in the short term as well.
 
Last edited:
The United said:
If he adds more, let's say 500k more (Russia does have more population and Putin will start using the western weapons blowing up on the Russian soil to manipulate more people to join the armed forces, if not already), wouldn't that be more "escalation" in a sense?
Click to expand...
The reason he’s not calling for another wave of mobilization now isn’t because he’s playing it safe — Russia literally doesn’t have the equipment, ammunition and sometimes even food or water (not in general, but in the army supply) to supply the already mobilized troops. They have to buy everything themselves and march forward with WWII helmets and rusty rifles.

He will call for another wave, most likely in the upcoming couple of months where he would be able to go through the September recruits, but he’s not sitting on, let’s use your number, 500k additional troops that he can throw in at any point.
 
harms said:
The reason he’s not calling for another wave of mobilization now isn’t because he’s playing it safe — Russia literally doesn’t have the equipment, ammunition and sometimes even food or water (not in general, but in the army supply) to supply the already mobilized troops. They have to buy everything themselves and march forward with WWII helmets and rusty rifles.

He will call for another wave, most likely in the upcoming couple of months where he would be able to go through the September recruits, but he’s not sitting on, let’s use your number, 500k additional troops that he can throw in at any point.
Click to expand...
We probably have greater compassion for his men than he does. They don't currently have enough equipment to support the number of soldiers mobilized, but it didn't stop them from being deployed to the front line and delaying UAF counterattacks.

He is not sitting on that number of courses right now. And it brings up the argument that some are making about further escalation. At what point or how he would use the western aid with weapons to get more support in the general population, as in getting more troops, would be interesting, for lack of a better word. I think at some point, people need to get away from the thinking that he won't have more troops due to lack of military equipment. Any number of them would cause just more difficulties for Ukraine and its allies for obviously reasons.
 
The United said:
Some people in the west are expecting that the Russian troops will be stronger next year, then you have Belarus's possible invasion. Putin still has the resources and methods to keep it going and under the control for awhile yet. The west probably can't do it that long or response fast enough in the short term as well.
Click to expand...

Russia had spent the last 20 years modernizing and building up it's army to what it was on February 25th, most of that is now gone. It will probably take them up to a decade to rebuild up to the same strenght as before the invasion, if it's even possible to do it with the current sanctions.
 
the hea said:
Russia had spent the last 20 years modernizing and building up it's army to what it was on February 25th, most of that is now gone. It will probably take them up to a decade to rebuild up to the same strenght as before the invasion, if it's even possible to do it with the current sanctions.
Click to expand...
I mean relatively, I would guess.
 
Junior officials and senior directors knew that to win plaudits and promotions they should exaggerate good news and play down the bad, for fear of upsetting “papa,” a nickname for Mr. Putin, once used for Russian czars.
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.