That's not the same thing.
Ralf Rangnick | Austria manager
- Thread starter Livewire1974
- Start date
Admittedly not. Either way, if the xPts goes up but you underperform in terms of actual points, you've either found a way to break the model or you were simply unlucky.
That being said, United was 12th in terms of xPts before Rangnick took over and are 6th under him. Between Nov 29 (the day he took over) and March 1, United even was 3rd in terms of xPts and points total.
An interim coaching appointment doesn't enable or hinder the management in terms of doing structural reforms. And what was long term about appointing Rangnick? Was he involved in structural reforms? Clearly not. Was a tactical preparation for Ten Hag? Clearly not. If anything EtH expressed his total lack of interest in Rangnick surprisingly publicly.
And what playing philosophy? Rangnick is fanatical about a pressing philosophy with little regard for possession, Ten Hag is a Guardiola disciple who wants to dominate the ball. Going this way for 6 months, then going the opposite way after that isn't a stringent implementation of a clear club philosophy. It looks more like "something something modern philosophy", without knowing what that actually means. It's the "hipster" version of following up Van Gaal with Mourinho.
There is also no "we'll see" vagueness about stating that you're going to do a reset in the summer, with a new coach and a proper pre season and transfer window, but until then you're just going to finish the season the best way you can. Clubs do it all the time and unless you can point me towards some legacy he's leaving behind the club did the same thing with Rangnick, just with a bad ending.
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Such is the hilarious revisionism on the cafe, that despite Rangnick literally achieving nothing apart from seeing out 6months, many will spend months insistent how he was the visionary, and that if we'd followed him we'd have prospered.
Seems simpler to say 'the model does not accurately describe reality.'
I don't think most United fans here think the club deserved much more than it got last season.
Since when is 6th good for a club like United anyway?
Moreover if you look at the actual numbers:
There's a huge gap towards Arsenal. Clearly a class behind and even closer to Newcastle (6.79 xPts) than to 5th place (7.57 xPts). Both xG and xGA are by far the worst among the top 6.
Also:
"For precisely one week of his tenure he was third in xPts, while having played three games more than Arsenal." What's the value of that statement? No one cares what the table looked like after about a third of the season. His first 14 games were also against the dross of the table, making that snapshot even more irrelevant.
Moreover if you look at the actual numbers:
There's a huge gap towards Arsenal. Clearly a class behind and even closer to Newcastle (6.79 xPts) than to 5th place (7.57 xPts). Both xG and xGA are by far the worst among the top 6.
Also:
"For precisely one week of his tenure he was third in xPts, while having played three games more than Arsenal." What's the value of that statement? No one cares what the table looked like after about a third of the season. His first 14 games were also against the dross of the table, making that snapshot even more irrelevant.
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No, but the interim coach works with the players. I'm pretty sure training drills under Rangnick and Solskjaer were night and day. There even were reports about United players complaining about too much tactical drills and even homework.
Why do you think he wasn't?
First, it was unsure whether Ten Hag would be available and willing to come to United at the time of Rangnick's arrival. I believe it was a more general decision to appoint a coach with a proactive and modern playing philosophy. I don't think they were necessarily looking for a possession oriented coach. That being said: The borders between the typical German pressing and transition style and the Dutch/Spanish possession style are vanishing more and more. What both have in common is pressing and in that context Rangnick definitely was a tactical preparation for Ten Hag. After all we're talking about a team which didn't press in years, as evidenced by their reuluctance to work tactically.
As said, they are anything but opposites. If you want to differentiate between the Klopp style and the Guardiola style, then those are much, much closer to each other than to the Conte style. In fact they are mere interpretations of the same concept. And the Conte style is again much closer to the Solskjaer style, or the Mourinho style, or the Allegri style, etc.
Of course there is. Especially at a club like United which has a reputation for abandoning their long term plan for romanticism or marketability (see Solskjaer, see Ronaldo).
And most United fans in here think they deserved the second place the season before that. Simpler but not correct.
From what I've seen they flip flop on that quite a lot.
For example they will use their second/ third place finishes in arguments to bash other managers but then admit that they were lucky (low points totals / injuries to opposition players) to finish in those positions (eg. 3rd with 66 points after finishing 6th with 66 points the year before) when they speak about Oles legacy.
Their position is frequently liquid and will fit into any container you put it in to.
I think most reasonable fans would admit (when they aren't trying to push an agenda) that while they did finish 2nd they were a million miles off realistically competing at the very top level.
That's not really something tangible, is it? Even Mourinho was (once) praised for his training methods.
Because coaching a team is a full time job, especially when had to take them over mid season, without any kind of prep. And as soon as he was done with the coaching they dumped him.
So they can press now? Has Rangnick taught them principles of positional play, he never showed in his other teams? "We're pressing from a stable defense and go for second balls" and "we need gegenpressing to snuff out counter attacks after a pushing the whole team forward with our positional ideas" are the same thing?
“I agree we never came near to that aggressive, pro-active football,” " At one stage we just had to find compromises - attacking a little bit deeper "
" Cristiano [...] he's not a pressing monster [...] And the same with quite a few other players so we had to make some compromises at one stage, maybe we made a few too many "
https://theathletic.com/news/rangni...manchester-united-tactics/bpfljIOKBcOn/?amp=1
Rangnick himself basically admitted he's just been "short-terming" it.
What does Rangnick have to do with this? It's like saying you're living a green life now, because you leased an electric car for short while. If you believe in that idea you will live by it, if you don't then you won't- one token gesture won't change a thing. If John Murtough, or whoever calls the shots, actually has a modern football philosophy he will implement it, regardless of interim choices, because that's what he believes will bring success.
It reminds me of the famous "“But I wore the juice" robber who was so convinced covering himself up in lemon juice would make him invisible.
When Ralf was appointed the usual fans started tweeting and retweeting his charming quotes on tactics and training theories (some of it that sounded good but were quite dumb). They convinced themselves he was this managerial messiah. The usual set of fans attacked me when I said he could be a flop since LVG a more qualified coach (by good measure) also flopped here.
It's not like I knew he would fail. It was exciting to get a new manager that had more tactical knowledge but he made a lot of wrong and naive decisions here. Not sure why people are trying to double down in proving he was this amazing coach we didn't value when reality is he failed. Move on. Maybe he succeeds later in his Austria role. So what? That doesn't change the fact he failed here simple as that
Bandwagons can be romantic and euphoric to get on.
The guy who invented the style of play that every German manager who has ever won anything followed! Amazing, this guy will be brilliant.
Then that slow burning realisation of...hang on, this guy hasn't ever really won anything, and hasn't actually managed for ages either.
Then that even worse thought of, wait a minute, this guy is going to step upstairs and oversee things!?
Thank goodness we at least cut our losses at that stage.
And the success of matey's "reign" was only ever going to really be measured in 1 way - the next guy being good and worth holding on 6 months for.
That could still happen!
United deservedly finished 2nd in 20/21 because we accumulated the second most amount of points. Just like this season we deserved to finish 6th because we had the 6th highest points total.
That's how league tables work mate.
You are comparing two different things: points, and placement. Points depend on your performance; placement depends on everyone's performance.
The argument that United did not "deserve" 2nd place is primarily about the quality of their opposition that year.
I don't think that this logic makes sense. We all know that in football, the team which played better won't always be rewarded for it.
Hasn't Newcastle been pretty active in the winter transfer window and bought a few new players?
Ralph's biggest problem isnt tactical. It's players insubordination.
Let it go lads 
What exactly are you having a problem understanding mate?
The league table doesn't lie, after 38 Home/Away games 99.9% of the time teams finish where they deserve to.
I think one way or another, it was pretty exposing that the team reacted that badly to tactical drills. And it was much better for Ten Hag that it was exposed during Rangnick's tenure and not his.
There have been accounts of Rangnick criticizing the organizational structure of the club, the scouting department and so forth. I don't think you can view that in isolation.
No, they can't press. But I doubt that this the plan was to sign Rangnick to "short term it" as you say. That was born out of necessary because the players were not fit, ready, willing or whatever to press intensely - which is a pretty damning judgment of the squad that at least in this quality Murtough and co. didn't see coming, I suppose.
And your way would mean you make the decision to buy a electric car when there are enough charging stations ready (= when a suitable coach is available) and until then you just continue to drive your old Diesel. Might be half a year, might be two years, who knows?
if you want to save carbon emissions, you start with it immediately
And if the best option only becomes available in the future and is uncertain, you don't wait for that but look how you can make due in the meantime.Because that's not logical. Of course the league table lies. 38 is by no means a significant sample size, especially not for a game that is so prone to randomness as football.
Sure. But you've used xPts to try to argue in favor of Rangnick. That is, xPts over even less than 38 games.
Which is exactly the same argument in a different wording.
I swear some of us really hate him that if they ever come across a Red Bull can they'd mutter under their breath "fecking Rangnick, worst manager in United history".
Football competitions based on league tables aren't logical?
So which alternative is fairer and would better represent which team is more deserving to place at any particular position in any given year?
Isn't significant enough to determine what exactly?
I can't follow you. What I'm saying is that even over 38 games there is much randomness involved, especially in a low scoring game like football, like it or not. I'm not questioning the mode of the competition. I'm just talking about it from a statistical perspective.
The 38 game league competition is the fairest solution we've came up with to deciding who wins and loses each year. Every team plays by the same rules so wherever a team finishes is almost always where they deserve to finish.
Thing is, play those 38 game days twice with the exact same teams and you'll get different outcomes
And that's luck. Chance doesn't even out over 38 games. Just because the league is a competition less prone top luck than, say, the UCL or a domestic cup doesn't mean it is "fair" in the sense that the final table is a perfectly accurate reflection of the team's performances. And that's essentially what xPts is trying to measure.Thing is, play those 38 game days twice with the exact same teams and you'll get different outcomes
Yes, that is what competition is. It would be a simulation if you think you'll get the same results.
A league of 38 games is the most fair way to judge how good a team is because it shows skill, robustness, consistency all in one. xPts is just another method that people use to support narratives.
The reason the top players are paid so much is because they can finish chances that other players can't. So xPts is good on paper but essentially means nothing on the field.
We're starting to see why he probably left, the club/manager seems insistent on buying ajax/dutch players from the Dutch league
I'm all for a manager going for players he's coached before but every single signing? seems very odd.
I'm all for a manager going for players he's coached before but every single signing? seems very odd.
Thing is, play those 38 game days twice with the exact same teams and you'll get different outcomes
Yeah well we do it the very next year with different results every year.
Fair maybe not but it's the fairest way system we have.
Ralf didn't leave he was sacked.
We've signed one player so far and he never played for Ten Hag.
Thing is, play those 38 game days twice with the exact same teams and you'll get different outcomes
It´s not necceserly luck - its small margins. And it takes a lot of effort to get them on your side.
From the Dutch league though right
FdJ, Brobbey, Martinez, Anthony are our only real links thus far
Yeah but it's just not very good at it.
The major site I know that uses xPts is Understat. Its expected points are consistently below actual points for the top 4 of the main leagues, and consistently above actual points for the bottom 4. It could be that they're lucky/unlucky, but at the top it's usually the same teams, so that can't be it. It thought Liverpool 'overperformed' xPts by 14 and 25 points from 2018 to 2020, it's just laughable.
Such a great thread this
Technically speaking, the first is wrong. You could play more games and it would even luck out more. Not that I would want that, "subverting expectations" is what makes football so addictive. At least as long as margins between teams don't become so big that randomness doesn't change anything (like in the Bundesliga).
As for the second, top players at times have even worse conversion rates than average ones. They are where they are for other reasons usually. Even the best scorers like Cristiano or Lewandowski.
See, I don't want to change the format. I'm merely pointing out that people like to ignore the factor luck plays in their assessments. Which is alright for people who just follow the sport as a hobby but if you are a decision maker at a major club, I don't think you can afford looking at football with such a result bias (and this is actually part of the reason why United is in the crisis they are, I believe).
Personally, I'd say it's luck to get them on your side but quality and effort to get close enough that chance can make the difference between a title or not.
That's what I meant with correlation. It's not a perfect metric but it's closer to what we had up until here. Liverpool by the way was an example of breaking the model since they essentially exploited crossing in this season which had a very bad conversion rate before. By the way, I'm also sure that Klopp would agree that this involved lots and lots of luck.
Well the scouting department is being overhauled. They've largely been scouting targets for Solskjaer until January so it makes sense that ETH would go for players he knows.