Race for top 4 | Finito.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

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Liverpool win 1 game after God knows how long and all of a sudden posters expect them to win 8 in a row. Jesus Christ. :lol:
 
I'm not finding the arguments above convincing at all. Yes Liverpool have been inconsistent this season, but you have to recognise that there's a good chance they will win most of their remaining games now with a bit of momentum, a ridiculously favourable fixture list, and their injury issues now resolved.

I do think they have a stupid game in them, and they don't have any room to manoeuvre - maybe they can afford to draw one. But I'm pretty sure they're finishing above Brighton, Villa and Spurs. It's about Newcastle and us, really. I'm at the point where I may be cheering on Newcastle so that we can pull up the ladder on top 4 as soon as possible. But Newcastle have 2 or 3 games where they will drop points so it will come down to bottle in the last few matches. I give Liverpool a 30-40% chance of pulling it off.
 
No one said it's an easy feat. It's unlikely. It just makes me laugh that certain posters always talk in certainties, even after making similar hilariously wrong predictions before

https://www.redcafe.net/threads/top...s-of-bottling-it.457602/page-45#post-27204843
Exactly this. Nobody's saying they're definitely going to do it, but to give them no chance at all is ludicrous. If they do do it these posters will melt into the background like they did 2 years ago.
 
Liverpool doesn’t play one game a week for the majority of their games now?
They have All 6 forwards fit or coming into fitness they will score a hatful against; Fulham(H), Forrest(H), Brentford(H), Spurs(H), Villa(H), Saints(A), Leicester(A), west Ham( A). They have 4 games in 12 days then the last 4 games in 23 days. Easily managed, don’t get me wrong West Ham(A) and Villa(H) are not dead certs but they have a chance which is why I went bold on Exact top 4 finish ; Arsenal, City, United, Liverpool and City, Arsenal, United, Liverpool last week at 25/1 and 33/1, the bookies have brought that in today 12/1 and 20/1, I hope I’m wrong I’d be happy to lose £40 on Liverpool not qualifying for CL!
 
I'm not finding the arguments above convincing at all. Yes Liverpool have been inconsistent this season, but you have to recognise that there's a good chance they will win most of their remaining games now with a bit of momentum, a ridiculously favourable fixture list, and their injury issues now resolved.

I do think they have a stupid game in them, and they don't have any room to manoeuvre - maybe they can afford to draw one. But I'm pretty sure they're finishing above Brighton, Villa and Spurs. It's about Newcastle and us, really. I'm at the point where I may be cheering on Newcastle so that we can pull up the ladder on top 4 as soon as possible. But Newcastle have 2 or 3 games where they will drop points so it will come down to bottle in the last few matches. I give Liverpool a 30-40% chance of pulling it off.


See I’m with you, I hate the scouse T….and would love for the Geordies to get the 16 points they need after we get the 13 we need. I can’t see them slipping up, can easily see them getting 22 or 24 points.
 
They have All 6 forwards fit or coming into fitness they will score a hatful against; Fulham(H), Forrest(H), Brentford(H), Spurs(H), Villa(H), Saints(A), Leicester(A), west Ham( A). They have 4 games in 12 days then the last 4 games in 23 days. Easily managed, don’t get me wrong West Ham(A) and Villa(H) are not dead certs but they have a chance which is why I went bold on Exact top 4 finish ; Arsenal, City, United, Liverpool and City, Arsenal, United, Liverpool last week at 25/1 and 33/1, the bookies have brought that in today 12/1 and 20/1, I hope I’m wrong I’d be happy to lose £40 on Liverpool not qualifying for CL!
They had all those players fit and struggled this season as well, hence being 8th?
If they were even on points with
Newcastle then sure, but Newcastle have the same calibre of opponents Liverpool have left and they have a 9 point cushion on top of that.
 
I'm not finding the arguments above convincing at all. Yes Liverpool have been inconsistent this season, but you have to recognise that there's a good chance they will win most of their remaining games now with a bit of momentum, a ridiculously favourable fixture list, and their injury issues now resolved.

A good chance they win most of their remaining games???

They haven't won more than 4 in a row all season. They will drop points at either Forest or West Ham in the next two games. Lots of people thought that the 7-0 win would spark a mad run that saw them fly up the table yet they followed it up with 2 points from 4 games!
 
As long as Newcastle beat Spurs at home at the weekend, and I think they will, then Newcastle will finish fourth.

Brighton have got more chance of finishing in the top four than Liverpool!
 
Exactly this. Nobody's saying they're definitely going to do it, but to give them no chance at all is ludicrous. If they do do it these posters will melt into the background like they did 2 years ago.
Worse, they don't learn and are still here saying certain results can't possibly happen despite being laughably wrong multiple times.
 
As long as Newcastle beat Spurs at home at the weekend, and I think they will, then Newcastle will finish fourth.

Brighton have got more chance of finishing in the top four than Liverpool!

I think a draw would do us better. I'd rather see both of them drop points right now. Don't forget we've got a game in hand over Spurs AND we play them, so basically a double opportunity to take care of our own business.

Even though there's no practical difference between 3rd and 4th, getting 3rd would actually feel like an accomplishment, especially in light of the recent injury crisis.
 
I think a draw would do us better. I'd rather see both of them drop points right now. Don't forget we've got a game in hand over Spurs AND we play them, so basically a double opportunity to take care of our own business.

Even though there's no practical difference between 3rd and 4th, getting 3rd would actually feel like an accomplishment, especially in light of the recent injury crisis.
A newcastle win makes it harder for Liverpool to get in. Not arsed if we finish 3rd or 4th
 
Liverpool will need to win all their remaining games if they want to stand a chance. They have been very inconsistent this season and every good result is followed by awful ones.
 
Liverpool are going to get top 4 aren't they!
Probably at our expense.

Maximum points they can get is 71, if they win all remaining matches. Meaning we need 13 points to ensure we finish above them, which is definitely doable. Without midweek Europa League should help.
 
I know naturally we want a draw between Newcastle vs Spurs but surely a Newcastle win is better?

Opens the gap between 4th and below and keeps Liverpool at arms length.

We could do with everyone 5th and below losing whilst Newcastle (and us of course) gaining points.

I’d rather finish 3rd than 4th obviously but if the other team (Newcastle in this instance) can take points off the pack behind then it’s a positive in my eyes.
 
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Liverpool are going to get top 4 aren't they!
Probably at our expense.
Ignoring the fact they were shite today and could easily have dropped points...
Have you looked at the table and games played?
They may get top 4, but it won't be at United's expense.
 
I know naturally we want a draw between Newcastle vs Spurs but surely a Newcastle win is better?

Opens the gap between 4th and below and keeps Liverpool at arms length.

We could do with everyone 5th and below losing whilst Newcastle (and us of course) gaining points.

I’d rather finish 3rd than 4th obviously but if the other team (Newcastle in this instance) can take points off the pack behind then it’s a positive in my eyes.

Newcastle winning is better for us creating the bigger gap over Tottenham, and stretching the points for Liverpool.
But a draw means both move on a point and means they have to overtake both teams.

I'd probably favour the former though. Liverpool have form for end of season romps, and we don't know what Newcastle are made of yet,

Although Newcastle qualifying for the champions league might not be great, as they'll inevitably spend big.
People underestimate how much they've already spent, but it's right near the top of the league table.
 
Liverpools best probably outcome is 5th. They have a better difference than Spurs and they play each other very soon. Would be hilarious to see Hawee Kanes face if they implode.
 
How many points did we lose during the games Casemiro was wrongly banned?
Actually not many - beat Leicester, Brentford and Everton at home, beat Leeds away. Drawn vs Leeds at home and lost to Newcastle away. So 13/18 points won. I'm worried we'll miss Martinez (and Varane) more.


On top 4 race - Villa drawing takes them out of it, though obviously it was always unlikely they were going to make it. Newcastle-Spurs game today is huge and I think everything but Spurs win would be good, perhaps Newcastle winning would take Tottenham out of the race definitely then.

Brighton and Liverpool, though still behind, are still in it. Especially Brighton who are on 49 points having only played 29 PL games so far.
 
Actually not many - beat Leicester, Brentford and Everton at home, beat Leeds away. Drawn vs Leeds at home and lost to Newcastle away. So 13/18 points won. I'm worried we'll miss Martinez (and Varane) more.


On top 4 race - Villa drawing takes them out of it, though obviously it was always unlikely they were going to make it. Newcastle-Spurs game today is huge and I think everything but Spurs win would be good, perhaps Newcastle winning would take Tottenham out of the race definitely then.

Brighton and Liverpool, though still behind, are still in it. Especially Brighton who are on 49 points having only played 29 PL games so far.
Brighton run includes games against City, Arsenal, United, Newcastle , Villa that's 5 games against current top 6 and few games against relegation battlers , I mean no disrespect but I would be very surprised if they even qualify for Europa League let alone Champions League through the league.
 
Liverpool and Villa are out of it. Brighton are 10 points behind with a game in hand but have us, City, Arsenal, Newcastle and Villa still to play, so I doubt they'll make top 4.
Anything but a Spurs win today pretty much guarantees us top 4 for me. No way spurs manage to pull back 6 points with us also having 2 games in hand. Even if the do beat us on Thursday.
 
We beat Spurs and get a draw or win against Brighton and I think that would seal it. I'd say it was done already until we lost Martinez and Varane. With Maguire and Lindelof playing the rest of the season then anything can happen.
 
Could really do with Newcastle wining this 8 or 9 nil will destroy spurs GD and they face a united on Thursday that’s either on the up front a win or wanting revenge in the PL. If we beat spurs or not lose on Thursday it’s done united Top 4 pretty much nailed on.
 
6 points ahead of 5th with 2 games in hand? We're not fecking that up.

Especially as Spurs are hardly fecking likely to go the rest of the season without dropping points.
 
This is a good result for us. I want third. But top 4 is more important and Spurs are done and dusted with this result. (We now have a better GD than them as well).
 
That's Tottenham most probably done. Do feel Newcastle will be the ones to finish 3rd, seems like they've been in good form again lately despite that Villa loss.