I think Liverpool are our biggest threat now funnily enough. Fair chance that they'll win all of their remaining games.
Race for top 4 | Finito.
- Thread starter Andycoleno9
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We need a 50% win rate in our remaining games to get it done. I'm pretty sure we're okay.
Doubt it. They've shown very little suggest that really. Only just got past Forest at home the other day.
Liverpool wont even win on wednesday let alone every match FFS.
I don't see that statement fitting for the behemoth that United are - "deserving of top-four"!!
Anything less is utter trash.
We need to drop 12 points from 24 and Liverpool have to win all of their remaining games to just draw level on points with us. Possible but highly unlikely.
And I don't think there's a fair chance they'll win all of their games. They barely got over the line v Forest at home which is arguably the easiest fixture in the league atm.
Realistically, winning just 3 of our final 8 matches should clinch 4th
I still want 3rd though. feck Newcastle.
I still want 3rd though. feck Newcastle.
Have you been in a coma since 2013?
Top 4 and at least one trophy this season would be excellent. Were you expecting us to win the title this season?
Show me a season where every "top 6" side were all in great form. I bet you can't. It never happens. Won't next season either.
If City beat Arsenal and then we win our games in hand, we’ll be 7 points behind Arsenal. 2nd place anyone? 
That game will be played on 25th May so doubt they'll change Lampard then. He'll just stay as interim until
Brighton and then Liverpool for me. We're in good position but have to keep high standards until the end of campaign, especially next 3 games that could be trickiest.
Yeah but every season is like that. We were trash in 2014, 2016, 2019, 2022. Someone else benefited from it.
Does anyone ever say “it’s a good thing X,Y & X were all crap this year” about the title race? Even though its almost always invariably between just 2 teams
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So we’re unlucky that Newcastle and Arsenal are both having the seasons of their lives right? Right?
Imagine thinking spurs are still an actual threat to top 4.
We should only aim for 3rd or 2nd place now that 1st is "impossible". It's the least they can do since we are out of Europe.
7 points is a lot! There’s only a few games left this seasonIf City beat Arsenal and then we win our games in hand, we’ll be 7 points behind Arsenal. 2nd place anyone?
Lose v City and they’d have dropped 9 points in the last 4 games7 points is a lot! There’s only a few games left this season
Possibly, but another way to look at it is we're currently on course for ~74 points which nearly always gets you top 4. It's just inevitable at this point some teams will have a shit season, and the ones who aren't as shit will benefit. The scenario where 6 or 7 teams all simultaneously have good seasons and all finish or 75+ or 80+ points doesn't really happen.
The amount of points needed to finish above the 5th placed side in the last few seasons
70
67
63
71
71
76
67
65
The chance that they'll win all of their remaining games is still less than the chance we get to at 72 points (Liverpool max point tally now is 71 points). So there is no danger. Even Newcastle seems to get to that 72 points mark too.
If Arsenal do indeed 'bottle it' - that is one hell of a mind game that Fergie played all those years ago.
Labelling them as bottlers literally became their culture and for sure has added pressure to the players minds this season.
Haha Fergie, what an absolute legend.
Labelling them as bottlers literally became their culture and for sure has added pressure to the players minds this season.
Haha Fergie, what an absolute legend.
So 95 % of the people on here are sure that top 4 is secured. Just imagine losing to Spurs midweek and then drawing or losing again to Villa at the weekend while Liverpool would win both their games. How many would still be sure that we'll get top 4 with Brighton and West Ham away next ?
I think it will be much closer than people here think, and if we lose to Spurs I'd rather bet on Liverpool to finish the job than on us.
I think it will be much closer than people here think, and if we lose to Spurs I'd rather bet on Liverpool to finish the job than on us.
What an amazing insight. I guess we were not trash last season. Others were simply better.
This seems unnecessarily arsey.
Hopefully Anthony Taylor doesnt shaft us on Thursday, if we win that we'll be 9 clear of Spurs with 2 games in hand so top 4 will be pretty much wrapped up.
I very much doubt Everton will take anything off Newcastle and we could do with Fulham taking something off Villa.
I very much doubt Everton will take anything off Newcastle and we could do with Fulham taking something off Villa.
Villa have no hope. They’re 9 behind having played two more games and with a worse goal difference.
The question is back at you as why you're so certain that Liverpool would simply win against West Ham away, and Tottenham at home? And both teams have Aston Villa at home in the remaining fixture, why the question being posed as we drop points to Aston Villa only?
Winning all their games getting max 21 points only get them 71 points, where as we only need 13 points from 24 total to get to 72 points and we have a game in hand. Tell me which is more feasible however you look at the fixture list?
We'll know where we are after the next 3 fixtures.
Spurs (A)
Villa (H)
Brighton(A)
I'd take a minimum of 5 points.
Spurs (A)
Villa (H)
Brighton(A)
I'd take a minimum of 5 points.
Spurs
Villa
Brighton
In an ideal world, we win these 3 and top 4 is all but a formality. Of course it won't be that easy and I'd be happy if we can beat 2 of the 3.
We're basically limping to the finish line at this point but even if we lose the next 3, there are enough games where we can pick up wins that we should be ok.
I
Villa
Brighton
In an ideal world, we win these 3 and top 4 is all but a formality. Of course it won't be that easy and I'd be happy if we can beat 2 of the 3.
We're basically limping to the finish line at this point but even if we lose the next 3, there are enough games where we can pick up wins that we should be ok.
I
I’m not one who often gets overtly confident or arrogant but surely 4th spot is ours. I have no doubt about that.
Noticed Brighton have a game in hand even on us and 3 games compared to most round them. So for me, they're probably the biggest threat.
They still have to play Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle and us. Also against Aston Villa who may fancy those EL/ELC qualification. Then they have 3 games against current bottom 3 who are desperate for points. Brighton has the toughest remaining fixture among the supposed top 4 chasers.
Their maximum point tally is 76, by winning all 9 games. Drawing 3 games (especially against us and Newcastle) would highly deny them top 4, where we only need 12 points to get to 71 points (Newcastle has one less games to reach 71).
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Didn't check their fixture tbh. Maybe not quite as much of a threat then.
I find it hard to feel confident of that. While I'd still call us favored to hold 4th, we've seen that this team can fall apart completely at any moment. The injuries and fatigue is starting to take a serious toll and that'll only get worse. Many of our key players are either injured - some probably for the rest of the season - or clearly worn out to the point where they contribute almost nothing on the pitch. If not for Brighton's grueling fixture list and Tottenham imploding lately, I'd be genuinely worried.
It is true but like you said our opponents aren’t looking great either. I expect us to win at White Hart Lane on Sunday to finish of the last doubts.
As for Brighton, I’m not very impressed, they weren’t able to break us down despite our injuries at the back. They played better football but we were able to gain momentum at several moments in the game. Our resilience is not shot yet. Qualifying for the final also ensures us that we will stay sharp till the very end.
IF we play reasonably well we have top four comfortably.
That's actually not entirely accurate. While we obviously had our share of atrocious results this season we always bounced back the next game. Unlike previous seasons where we would go on a terrible run of results after a heavy loss. In fact, Since the Brentford and Brighton games not once this season have we failed to win twice in a row. That kind of consistency is exactly what gets you top four.
The fear of Liverpool is that they've done it before, ie had an apparently disastrous season (ie the one after they won the title), looked completely out of the top 4 race, then went on a ridiculous winning steak to sneak top 4 at the death. They've got the survival instincts of f**king rats, that lot.
I know it's dependent on us messing up badly too, but my worry is that every game seems a struggle for us now. We're running on fumes. That Europa League campaign, although providing us with some thrilling nights in OT v Barca and Betis, has really been a disaster for us in terms of injuries and fatigue. I never want to qualify for that competition again, it's a curse!
I know it's dependent on us messing up badly too, but my worry is that every game seems a struggle for us now. We're running on fumes. That Europa League campaign, although providing us with some thrilling nights in OT v Barca and Betis, has really been a disaster for us in terms of injuries and fatigue. I never want to qualify for that competition again, it's a curse!
Is there an advantage to finishing 3rd than 4th other than bragging rights? maybe more prize money, etc?
Slightly more tv revenue about 2-3M difference.
Nope. What's unnecessarily arsey is thrashing us by declaring our competitors are super thrash.
The level of entitlement with some people here is tragicomic.