Race for top 4 | Finito.

Dominos said:
If Chelsea win the CL, I believe there's 5 English teams in CL next season. Not a concern for us.
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Exactly, there were 5 german temas this year. It only becomes a problem for the 4th, if 2 teams outside the top 4 win the CL and the EL. Then the 4th is degraded to EL.
 
Siorac said:
But we weren't 5-0 up. They've found a way and they'll find a way a week from now. Again, our starting back four will be AWB, Lindelöf, Maguire, Malacia. We won't have a single gamechanger on the bench, unless we start with Weghorst instead of Martial.
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Dilute the negativity please.
 
down to only 2 CB's....i'd say priority know should go to staying in the top 4 and fuk the cups
 
Hate to say it but I think 3rd is Newcastle's to lose now, and we'll be in a battle with Spurs for 4th. We have a game in hand over them and it's pretty crucial that we win it.
 
Todd said:
Hate to say it but I think 3rd is Newcastle's to lose now, and we'll be in a battle with Spurs for 4th. We have a game in hand over them and it's pretty crucial that we win it.
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we still ahve to play spurs and the thought of harry and victor defending Kane and Son....scares the piss out of me
 
Todd said:
Hate to say it but I think 3rd is Newcastle's to lose now, and we'll be in a battle with Spurs for 4th. We have a game in hand over them and it's pretty crucial that we win it.
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100%

Spurs have to play Newcastle, villa and Liverpool away too. We win tomorrow and I think that's top 4 done.
 
Todd said:
Hate to say it but I think 3rd is Newcastle's to lose now, and we'll be in a battle with Spurs for 4th. We have a game in hand over them and it's pretty crucial that we win it.
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Still confident we will get 3rd, think Newcastle will drop points today. With our advantage over spurs 4th is extremely likely, they would need a great run of results which would include beating newcastle which helps us on 3rd. Win tomorrow very hard for them even if they beat us
 
Table positions were from before the brentford game..my guesses:
United games remaining. 56 points
  • Forest (away) - 15th - draw/win
  • Chelsea (home) - 11th - win
  • Spurs (away) - 5th - loss/draw
  • Villa (home) - 9th - draw/win
  • Brighton (away) - 6th - loss
  • West Ham (away) - 14th - loss/draw
  • Wolves (home) - 13th - win
  • Bournemouth (away) - 16th - win
  • Fulham (home) - 10th - win
14 - 20 points, total 70 - 76 points

Newcastle games remaining. 56 points
  • Brighton (home) - 6th - draw
  • Villa (away) - 9th - loss/draw
  • Spurs (home) - 5th - draw/win
  • Everton (away) - 18th - win
  • Southampton (home) - 20th - win
  • Arsenal (home) - 1st - loss/draw
  • Leeds (away) - 17th - win
  • Leicester (home) - 19th - win
  • Chelsea (away) - 11th - draw/win
15 - 21 points, total 71 - 77 points

Tottenham games remaining. 53 points
  • Bournemouth (home) - 16th - win
  • Newcastle (away) - 3rd - loss/draw
  • United (home) - 4th - draw/win
  • Liverpool (away) - 8th - loss
  • Palace (home) - 12th - win
  • Villa (away) - 9th - loss/draw
  • Brentford (home) - 7th - draw/win
  • Leeds (away) - 17th - win
11 - 17 points, 64 - 70 points.

Basically, Spurs would need their peak level of results while we'd need to hit our ultimate low. Newcastle and United similar. Win tomorrow and Newcastle lose today and we are at the 72-76 range and Newcastle at 71-76 IMO, while Spurs winning doesn't change the needle for them at all.
 
bosnian_red said:
Table positions were from before the brentford game..my guesses:
United games remaining. 56 points
  • Forest (away) - 15th - draw/win
  • Chelsea (home) - 11th - win
  • Spurs (away) - 5th - loss/draw
  • Villa (home) - 9th - draw/win
  • Brighton (away) - 6th - loss
  • West Ham (away) - 14th - loss/draw
  • Wolves (home) - 13th - win
  • Bournemouth (away) - 16th - win
  • Fulham (home) - 10th - win
14 - 20 points, total 70 - 76 points

Newcastle games remaining. 56 points
  • Brighton (home) - 6th - draw
  • Villa (away) - 9th - loss/draw
  • Spurs (home) - 5th - draw/win
  • Everton (away) - 18th - win
  • Southampton (home) - 20th - win
  • Arsenal (home) - 1st - loss/draw
  • Leeds (away) - 17th - win
  • Leicester (home) - 19th - win
  • Chelsea (away) - 11th - draw/win
15 - 21 points, total 71 - 77 points

Tottenham games remaining. 53 points
  • Bournemouth (home) - 16th - win
  • Newcastle (away) - 3rd - loss/draw
  • United (home) - 4th - draw/win
  • Liverpool (away) - 8th - loss
  • Palace (home) - 12th - win
  • Villa (away) - 9th - loss/draw
  • Brentford (home) - 7th - draw/win
  • Leeds (away) - 17th - win
11 - 17 points, 64 - 70 points.

Basically, Spurs would need their peak level of results while we'd need to hit our ultimate low. Newcastle and United similar. Win tomorrow and Newcastle lose today and we are at the 72-76 range and Newcastle at 71-76 IMO, while Spurs winning doesn't change the needle for them at all.
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We’ve all done this but Villa now 2-0 up, Brighton, Liverpool and Chelsea to lesser extent have a lot to play for, plus the teams in a relegation battle will throw up unexpected results. Villa are flying and they can still get 71 points but their best effort might result in 67-69 so United need 5 wins to get 4th , 6 wins to get 3rd, so hopefully tomorrow, we can start with a convincing away win, something we’ve not done in the league for a long time?
 
Woziak said:
We’ve all done this but Villa now 2-0 up, Brighton, Liverpool and Chelsea to lesser extent have a lot to play for, plus the teams in a relegation battle will throw up unexpected results. Villa are flying and they can still get 71 points but their best effort might result in 67-69 so United need 5 wins to get 4th , 6 wins to get 3rd, so hopefully tomorrow, we can start with a convincing away win, something we’ve not done in the league for a long time?
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Villas on a good run and will always be a danger at home but they aren't going to win all 7 remaining games to actually put them in the top 4 shout. Honestly while it's hard to predict exact results in the prem, typically over a span of results I feel like you can be pretty accurate. Like if we or any other good side have 5 games at home left vs bottom half teams, you'd expect maybe not perfect, but something like 11-15 points as your range. Away games vs top half, top 12 teams are all tough, and I doubt anyone is even getting 2ppg in those games this season. City have 2 ppg in overall away games let alone just top 12.

Just looking at it, 4 wins from the last 9 games will likely have us finishing 4th. Gives Spurs a chance, but I don't think they reach 68 points.
 
Villa are a team to keep an eye on. Looking very good and remember they have mega rich owners too.
 
We play Spurs, Villa and Brighton in the space of 7 days next week. Results in those games against 5th, 6th and 7th will go a long way into deciding whether we can hold onto a top 4 spot.
 
PoTMS said:
We play Spurs, Villa and Brighton in the space of 7 days next week. Results in those games against 5th, 6th and 7th will go a long way into deciding whether we can hold onto a top 4 spot.
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We could win one of those games games or draw all three and still be favourites for top 4.
How many more weeks of watching rivals randomly drop points before we realise this race is t going to come down to 2/3 games?
I’m starting to think if Liverpool wins a few games in the bounce they’re right back in it for fourth. Especially with Newcastle v Brighton and Newcastle v Spurs up soon
 
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PoTMS said:
We play Spurs, Villa and Brighton in the space of 7 days next week. Results in those games against 5th, 6th and 7th will go a long way into deciding whether we can hold onto a top 4 spot.
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Wins against Forest and Villa are compulsory for us.

I have no faith of getting a result against Spurs or Brighton away, we've been getting destroyed in these tough away games all season.

6 points wouldn't be the worst return from the next 12 as long as we do our job after.

After we have 4 lower half teams + Chelsea at home.
 
cyberman said:
We could win one of those games games or draw all three and still be favourites for top 4.
How many more weeks of watching rivals randomly drop points before we realise this race is t going to come down to 2/3 games?
I’m starting to think if Liverpool wins a few games in the bounce they’re right back in it for fourth. Especially with Newcastle v Brighton and Newcastle v Spurs up soon
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Erm, clearly because we are one of those teams. In fact, most of those teams in and around us have gained points on us in the last few months.

I don't understand why people deal in such absolutes. Either it's so obvious we're gonna get top 4 and everyone holding fire for now are bedwetters or there's absolutely no hope of getting it and we may as well start preparing for Europa.
 
PoTMS said:
Erm, clearly because we are one of those teams. In fact, most of those teams in and around us have gained points on us in the last few months.

I don't understand why people deal in such absolutes. Either it's so obvious we're gonna get top 4 and everyone holding fire for now are bedwetters or there's absolutely no hope of getting it and we may as well start preparing for Europa.
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Indeed. It's 50-50 in my view and will likely continue to be tight for the remainder of the season. None of Newcastle, Spurs, Liverpool, Brighton or United are very good teams - if any of them suddenly become very good teams and put a run together, they'd almost certainly get top 4 at the expense of the others, but they won't - we'll all continue to drop points and the race will go down to the final couple of games.
 
Dominos said:
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Wins against Forest and Villa are compulsory for us.

I have no faith of getting a result against Spurs or Brighton away, we've been getting destroyed in these tough away games all season.

6 points wouldn't be the worst return from the next 12 as long as we do our job after.

After we have 4 lower half teams + Chelsea at home.
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With Casemiro back we'll at least have some back four protection again especially on the road. Shaw when he's back wil probably slot in next to Maguire too which is better than Lindelof.
 
Dominos said:
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Wins against Forest and Villa are compulsory for us.

I have no faith of getting a result against Spurs or Brighton away, we've been getting destroyed in these tough away games all season.

6 points wouldn't be the worst return from the next 12 as long as we do our job after.

After we have 4 lower half teams + Chelsea at home.
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I would rather play spurs away than Villa at home right now !
 
Woziak said:
I would rather play spurs away than Villa at home right now !
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It's true Spurs are so bad performance wise it’s hard to imagine them dominating anyone. But still their home results are good, and our away results vs top half sides is dismal. They'll probably get a spawny win.
 
Infra-red said:
Indeed. It's 50-50 in my view and will likely continue to be tight for the remainder of the season. None of Newcastle, Spurs, Liverpool, Brighton or United are very good teams - if any of them suddenly become very good teams and put a run together, they'd almost certainly get top 4 at the expense of the others, but they won't - we'll all continue to drop points and the race will go down to the final couple of games.
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Liverpool are 12 points back. They'd need to become that very, very good team pretty soon to even be in the conversation.

Or in other words, they need 4 more wins than United and Newcastle in the remaining 9 games, probably means winning at least 8 out of 9.
They've won 12 games all season. Less than 1% chance at Top 4.
 
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PoTMS said:
Erm, clearly because we are one of those teams. In fact, most of those teams in and around us have gained points on us in the last few months.

I don't understand why people deal in such absolutes. Either it's so obvious we're gonna get top 4 and everyone holding fire for now are bedwetters or there's absolutely no hope of getting it and we may as well start preparing for Europa.
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We’ve had a bad patch but it’s one bad patch hence the points cushion. Newcastle had to go on a 5 odd winning streak to just get ahead of us on goal difference and we could even jump ahead of them after the first time they drop points tomorrow.
Im trying to do the math in my head, Bournemouth holds on and were 3 points ahead of 5th with 3 games in hand isn’t it?
We are not the same.
 
cyberman said:
We’ve had a bad patch but it’s one bad patch hence the points cushion. Newcastle had to go on a 5 odd winning streak to just get ahead of us on goal difference and we could even jump ahead of them after the first time they drop points tomorrow.
Im trying to do the math in my head, Bournemouth holds on and were 3 points ahead of 5th with 3 games in hand isn’t it?
We are not the same.
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2 games in hand
 
cyberman said:
We’ve had a bad patch but it’s one bad patch hence the points cushion. Newcastle had to go on a 5 odd winning streak to just get ahead of us on goal difference and we could even jump ahead of them after the first time they drop points tomorrow.
Im trying to do the math in my head, Bournemouth holds on and were 3 points ahead of 5th with 3 games in hand isn’t it?
We are not the same.
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I don't disagree - I think we'll make top 4 by a few points - but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we miss out either.
 
swissgenius said:
Liverpool are 12 points back. They'd need to become that very, very good team pretty soon to even be in the conversation.

Or in other words, they need 4 more wins than United and Newcastle in the remaining 9 games, probably means winning at least 8 out of 9.
They've won 12 games all season. Less than 1% chance at Top 4.
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They need to win every single game remaining to get 71 points... 71 points is basically the low that I see United and Newcastle getting. Just not a chance for them anymore.
 
We should be fine. Spurs and Newcastle are just shite, and wont win enough games to capitalise on our eventual mistakes.
 
bosnian_red said:
They need to win every single game remaining to get 71 points... 71 points is basically the low that I see United and Newcastle getting. Just not a chance for them anymore.
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Newcastle would have to win 5 of their remaining 8 games to get 71 points. How is that the lowest they’re getting? It’s a higher PPG than they current have - and they still have Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton, Villa and Spurs to play.
 
Mickeza said:
Newcastle would have to win 5 of their remaining 8 games to get 71 points. How is that the lowest they’re getting? It’s a higher PPG than they current have - and they still have Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton, Villa and Spurs to play.
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  • Spurs home
  • Everton away
  • Southampton home
  • Arsenal home
  • Leeds away
  • Leicester home
  • Chelsea away
  • Brighton Home to be rescheduled
Tough fixtures, but 5 of the 8 are at home where they are a bitch to play against. Chelsea are a joke and last day of the season, if Newcastle need a result they'd likely get it. Leicester, Leeds, Southampton shouldn't be challenges for them I wouldn't think... So Everton away, Arsenal home, Spurs home, Brighton home as their toughest on paper. I dunno. Just my guess that they'll get at least 15 points.
 
It’s not like we’re the only team who has to deal with injuries. from what I understand Brighton had to make 3 substitutions today due to injuries.
We cannot blame bad luck and injuries if we don’t make top 4. We still have a pretty good team and Maguire and Lindelof should be capable of bringing us over the line.
 
Spurs will feck it up when you least expect it. You always have to believe in their ability to shit things up for themselves.
 
As far as we are concerned it's a non-event. The other teams are truly awful.
 
What a beautiful Saturday.

We must win tomorrow. It would be a massive step towards CL qualification, especially taking Spurs' fixture list into account.
 
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