Some weird behaviour on this forum at the moment. People moaning about people making threads or moaning about people moaning about things.
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Points countdown until top 4 is secured | 1 point left, 2 games to go | Can almost taste it...!
- Thread starter rio's upper lip
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Sentiment
Weird that Chelsea is probably the easiest game in that run. Given our current form I’m not as convinced that this group of games is as easy as some are making out.
Agreed, although it's been like this for as long as I've known it. People love to police how others should support or vent about the club.
We'll get top 4, not as convincingly like I thought we would a few months ago but we'll get there.
Right. Meant 3-6 points from the next 3 games.... Tough games, but even 1 win sets us up nicely.
The 2 points we lost against Spurs are hurting. It will be a close one, especially if our woeful away form continues. Liverpool have plenty of easy games, and their 2 tricky ones are at home. They might push us to the end.
The rest of the teams wont have more than 66/67 points, Liverpool might be around 69/70 points at the end.
We are in a good position, but a couple of games without winning and we have a right fight on our hands. So we have plenty of work to do. We need a win against Villa and/or Brighton to ease the pressure.
The rest of the teams wont have more than 66/67 points, Liverpool might be around 69/70 points at the end.
We are in a good position, but a couple of games without winning and we have a right fight on our hands. So we have plenty of work to do. We need a win against Villa and/or Brighton to ease the pressure.
8 points with 8 games remaining.
I'm sure there were Leicester fans who said 'United have been shite all season, they won't suddenly find title winning form and finish ahead of us'.
And then we got 20 out of 24 and did finish ahead of them.
We are 6 ahead of Spurs and Villa with two games in hand. They’ve got 5 games left to overturn it.
We are 7 ahead of Liverpool with a game in hand.
They’ve got 6 games to overturn it.
Liverpool have still to play Villa and Spurs. (And Brentford and Fulham)
Spurs have still to play Liverpool and Villa (And Brentford)
Villa still have to play United, Spurs and Liverpool.
Obviously it’s possible one of those teams win every match in which case it will be close but there is so much scope for collateral across the fixtures and none of those teams look capable of winning every fixture.
It's a different situation, we all know that season was an anomaly due to COVID but I won't use that as a basis for what's going on right now. For this season as bad as we can be sometimes, I can't see us throwing away points multiple times in succession while at the same time Liverpool keep on winning and cut double digit points gap - that is simply not realistic. At the moment we are 7 points ahead of Liverpool having played 1 game less. Yes Pool are winning games but aside from battering Leeds I didn't see anything convincing that tells me "okay they're going to keep winning till the end of season", not in recent games. They're just as unconvincing as us in that aspect so I expect them to draw and/or lose a few games. In the end the current 7 (or even 10) points lead decide the top 4 because no team outside of the top 2 are convincing enough that they can go on a winning streak, they shit the bed sometimes just like us.
I'm sure there were Leicester fans who said 'United have been shite all season, they won't suddenly find title winning form and finish ahead of us'.
And then we got 20 out of 24 and did finish ahead of them.
We caught up in six games and overturned it in the seventh though, and that's with dropping points twice!
And that's my point: we didn't look capable of going on a big run in 2019/20 either. But we did. And Leicester got 8 in the final 8. A similar performance from us - and let's face it, it's not out of the question - and Liverpool don't even have to win every game.
I'm not saying we're definitely not going to get top 4. I'm saying that looking at our overall form, the energy levels of the squad, the injuries to Martinez and Varane - well, top 4 is nowhere near as safe and secure as many people believe.
Will go down to the last game.
Top 4 will be secured by the end of next weekend.
The teams below us our woeful. We’ll make top four easily.
This. It's likely we end the season 6 or more points ahead of 5th.
Spurs will be out of top 4 after they lose or draw Sunday. If we beat AV on Sunday, Villa are out of the picture. Even if we lose to Brighton, they have to play Arsenal and Newcastle away and City at home. There is just no way they can make up 11 points given that schedule.
Liverpool is a slight worry, but I'm pretty sure they will drop points which means we really only need 10 or so to secure top 4.
None of the teams below us will win every game to the end of the season.
Liverpool have won their last three games, but look at who they played: Nottingham Forest, Leeds and West Ham. Those team are all in the bottom six. They will start dropping points again when they play Fulham, Tottenham, Brentford and Aston Villa. We are 7 points ahead with a game in hand.
Brighton - Not worried about them. They are a good side, but people have been going overboard with the praise. They are 8 points behind us and still need to play Newcastle, City, Arsenal and Aston Villa in their final 5 games.
Tottenham - Not much needs to be said here. They are incredibly inconsistent; they can have a good performance and follow it up with utter tripe. Wouldn't be surprised if they beat Liverpool and lose to Crystal Palace.
Aston Villa - They are 6 points below us and we have 2 games in hand on them.
Yeah, I'm really not worried about the top four. We are in a great position.
Liverpool have won their last three games, but look at who they played: Nottingham Forest, Leeds and West Ham. Those team are all in the bottom six. They will start dropping points again when they play Fulham, Tottenham, Brentford and Aston Villa. We are 7 points ahead with a game in hand.
Brighton - Not worried about them. They are a good side, but people have been going overboard with the praise. They are 8 points behind us and still need to play Newcastle, City, Arsenal and Aston Villa in their final 5 games.
Tottenham - Not much needs to be said here. They are incredibly inconsistent; they can have a good performance and follow it up with utter tripe. Wouldn't be surprised if they beat Liverpool and lose to Crystal Palace.
Aston Villa - They are 6 points below us and we have 2 games in hand on them.
Yeah, I'm really not worried about the top four. We are in a great position.
More to the point, even if they do, we should be comfortably ahead even if we lose a couple.
There is no real top 4 race at present. Maybe there is one in 3-4 rounds, if we or Newcastle have gone south and one of the others haven't dropped any points, but it's unlikely.
Fixtures remaining and both centre backs injured. Added to this, the players look exhausted and also self destructed in the Europa League.
Draw, loss, draw, win,win,win and draw 12 pts there. If I am right will that be enough?
Yes but I wouldn't trust this team to get 10 points from 12 under pressure in the last 4 games.
Getting a win today is crucial.
Only if Brighton drop points against someone else or Newcastle finish on less points than us.
Well we got 3 points and spurs lost so as I reckoned 12 pts to get top 4 we surely can get 9 from 6 games
Can't believe how close those Scouse clowns will come to top 4. Was hoping they'd get ECL.
If Brighton don't beat us, 72 points would be enough. They can only get 73 max at the moment.
I’d expect us to draw the next two so that win today was massive, I’d expect us to win the following four though with only Bournemouth as the only away game and also a week rest in between every game after West Ham.
I'm sure there were Leicester fans who said 'United have been shite all season, they won't suddenly find title winning form and finish ahead of us'.
And then we got 20 out of 24 and did finish ahead of them.
They totally can, in fact I think they will win them all.
The point is for us to drop from top 4 that's 1 of 2 things that must happen.
We should drop to low table form having ≤8/18.
Take into consideration that despite our current "terrible form" we've got 13/15 in the last 5.
So yeah, it looks out of place considering players will be coming back from injuries and improving form like Casemiro is doing.
Aged well in 24 hours this post.
Maybe I am bad at math, but it seems Brighton can still make 73 pts total as a maximum… In that case N’Castle would make 77 maximum.
So if we lose to Brighton we might still need 10 pts and a better goal difference than them. Or 11points to certain. Now if we were to get a draw against them then we’d only need 8 pts from the remaining game too secure a finish above them.
Of course this is some theoretical nonsense, I know Brighton has no chance making that near perfect end of the season to beat us… And top 4 is almost secure. The FA Cup final has to be the main goal now. This could still be a great season after all.
So if we lose to Brighton we might still need 10 pts and a better goal difference than them. Or 11points to certain. Now if we were to get a draw against them then we’d only need 8 pts from the remaining game too secure a finish above them.
Of course this is some theoretical nonsense, I know Brighton has no chance making that near perfect end of the season to beat us… And top 4 is almost secure. The FA Cup final has to be the main goal now. This could still be a great season after all.
I reckon we'll get 12-13 points. Maybe win 4, draw 1, lose 1.
Realistic good target is beating that 2nd place points total during corona, so 75.
If we get 80 (so all wins), that'll be some nice momentum for the cup final but I doubt it.
If we get 80 (so all wins), that'll be some nice momentum for the cup final but I doubt it.
Look, Brighton, in fact no team including City and Arsenal, can win all remaining games in a row. So we reaching 70 points should be a relative safe position. We should be able to reach that goal with 2 games to spare.
Can I claim a jinx?
It was wonderful to see Casemiro return to form. Here’s to hoping he maintains it for the rest of the season.
Brighton has to win all remaining games which include Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle, and us to get 73 points. Even Aston Villa game may be banana skin for them. So they only really have 2 easy games. Tall order to even get mid 60 points.
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If you check the calendar, and if Pool win all their remaining games, they could be at 71 points. So we would still need 10 more points to be ahead of them.
Brighton still have 7 games to play (potentially 73 points, 11 more points for us to win, but they play us, Arsenal, City,Villa and Newcastle).
Winning 4 games will secure us the place for sure. 3 games + a draw might be enough to stay above the rats.
Brighton still have 7 games to play (potentially 73 points, 11 more points for us to win, but they play us, Arsenal, City,Villa and Newcastle).
Winning 4 games will secure us the place for sure. 3 games + a draw might be enough to stay above the rats.
We're on 63 points. Now only need 9 points to finish above Liverpool.
Am I missing something?
My math says Brighton has 7 games to play and could land on 73 points with a better goal difference...
Agree not likely but unless my math is wrong a possibility.
They need to play us, Arsenal, Newcastle, City and Villa. I don’t think they’ll get max points from that run of games.
It is entirely understandable the fanbase is getting the jitters, especially with the team visibly fatigued, hence the recent 2nd half collapses but we have enough about us to cement top 4.
Good times are ahead so keep the faith and once we've beat Brighton, close the thread!
Good times are ahead so keep the faith and once we've beat Brighton, close the thread!
Even if Brighton are unlikely they'll win all, the thread title is still misleading since its still a possibility. We're considering 9 points needed as an absolute assuming Liverpool will win all their 5 games (which is also quite unlikely). I guess that's why couple of people have pointed it out.
Isn’t this exercise a bit pointless? If Liverpool draw just a single game then the points needed are down to 7. Similar with Brighton, they lost to Forest just last week, if they draw just two games out of Utd, City, Arsenal, Newcastle and Villa and win the rest, which is great great form far surpassing their 1.68 ppg this season, the most they can get would still be 69.
This is just bed wetting at its finest. There’s probably an 80% chance that 70 pts are enough for top 4 this season.
This is just bed wetting at its finest. There’s probably an 80% chance that 70 pts are enough for top 4 this season.
i totally agree. People worrying are little mad. It’s possible but very unlikely:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/