Manchester United must make matches less chaotic through midfield control
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team have got their swagger back this season and now need to find a happy middle ground between stasis and chaos
After an identity crisis that defined the post-Ferguson years, Manchester United rediscovered some of their old self-assurance this season. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team will finish a comfortable second, with Paul Pogba, Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford and
Edinson Cavani prime age players of stature and decisive, match-winning moments. The swagger is back.
Though United are a club of immense wealth and attacking talent, it should not be forgotten that this was a team tipped to battle for a top four finish.
Solskjaer has comfortably cleared that bar, achieving results that are the envy of some feted coaches below him in the table. For the first time under his management, United have recorded 20 league wins a season. They are unbeaten away from home thanks to a series of thrilling comebacks, conceding just 15 goals on the road including clean sheets at the Etihad, Anfield, Stamford Bridge and the Emirates. They are obdurate in the biggest fixtures and are starting to accumulate points in the rest, though a slow start at home in the autumn cost them dear.
United remain a difficult team to analyse because Solskjaer is not tethered to tactical dogma or an all-encompassing school of thought. This can be both a strength and a weakness. In the good times, Solskjaer's flexibility can appear prudent, with a willingness to roll with what works and not get in his own way by restricting the talent at his disposal. When things go wrong, United can be accused of lacking structure and prescribed patterns of play to fall back on in high-pressure situations. Scepticism of Solskjaer the coach persists, but we may have underestimated Solskjaer the manager and the importance of those softer factors. His man management of Pogba for instance, has proved exemplary.
The startling theme from United's season is the number of points they have gained from losing positions. Only Newcastle United in 2001-02, with 34, have gained more points from behind than United's 31 this season. Impressively, 28 of those points have been won away from home, which is the most away points gained from losing positions in Premier League history. This is testament to United's character and attacking firepower, and doubtless Solskjaer will be keen to draw parallels with 1999 and the late goals and unlikely rescue missions that defined the Treble season.
How sustainable is this pattern of results though? Resilience is said to be the stuff of champions, but league-winning teams also make a habit of controlling games with the lead. It helps preserve legs in a condensed schedule and allows them to take key players off, rather than calling for the cavalry from the bench to save the day.
If only first halves counted this season, Manchester City would be top and United 13th. A facetious point you may think, but it means City went in at the break leading in 20 of their 35 games and United just seven of 35. Score effects are a real thing. The scoreline dictates the pattern of the game, and it would be incredibly difficult to win the league while chasing so often.
United have also run hot in front of goal this season, scoring 68 league goals from an expected goals tally of 55.85, the second-biggest over-performance in the league. They have the second-highest shot conversion rate and nine of their goals have been penalties, more than any team in the league. Perhaps these trends will continue - United certainly have excellent finishers who strike the ball well and draw fouls in the penalty area - but they may not. It is a potential vulnerability.
There is also a sense that United lack the control you expect from a top team. They spend a large proportion of their games either not doing very much at all, or throwing the kitchen sink at teams and profiting from the chaos. There has been little middle ground, prompting Gary Neville to label them an "odd bunch".
The answer could be the signing of a metronomic passer in deep midfield who can fire the ball into the forwards with quality but also slow things down when needed. United have not won a title since Michael Carrick was a starter, and the squad currently lacks this type of classy distributor. Nemanja Matic has seen better days, while Fred and Scott McTominay bring energy and diligence but are not specialists at building play. Paul Pogba has the quality but is not always trusted deep. The United player with the most completed passes into the final third this season is centre-back Harry Maguire, hinting at midfield being bypassed.
The signing of a true No 6 could also help United find their attackers more easily in the big games. Though Solskjaer has set them up well in these fixtures, it was suggested United missed a trick by not pushing for wins at Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool. A better supply line to the forwards would help. Once United are around your penalty box, they can be devastating. Getting there can be the issue.