Cook only started playing well at Syracuse in Week 6 though. Before that it was 13 yards, 3 yards, 40 yards etc, and later 20 vs Notre Dame, 36 vs Virginia. Winston basically had a weak running game for the first half of the season. And he had a struggling offensive line for the early parts with RS Freshman Ryan Hoefeld who replaced Austin Barron at center after Bryan Stork turned pro. Cam Erving was shifted to center with true freshman Rod Johnsonn at LT only in Week 10 vs Miami.
And his weapons weren't really slightly worse. They were way worse, both in terms of experience and production. Benjamin was their best receiver, a Sr and Winston's primary red zone target last season with 1000+ yards and 15 TDs. He was replaced by true freshman Travis Rudolph who hadn't played a single college snap before 2014 and had only 500 yards and 4 tds. Kenny Shaw had 900+ yards and 6 TDs in 2013. Replaced again by a true freshman Ermon Lane who produced 250 yards and 1 TD. That's a total difference of about 1200 yards and 16 TDs in 2 prime targets, never mind the route running/ blocking experience.
Florida game - 29 Nov 2014.
Louisville game - 30 Oct 2014.
Virginia game - 8 Nov 2014.
9 interceptions from a season total of 17 in 3 games.
Winston had a student conduct code hearing penciled for November which was then postponed to a bench presided by Harding on the 3rd of Dec 2014. We might want to take that into account. This is a human being, and very young, not some autobot who can compartmentalize everything and keep brushing things off. All that stuff swirling about was a huge distraction, albeit self inflicted. Then he had to wait for a month for the ruling results. All that, and the media driven witch hunt of a 20 year old, who was later acquitted certainly affected his decision making. How could it not.. This was also the time when he had the ankle injury (2nd half vs Louisville).
But the thing is despite all of that, they won all the games, a lot of times with him orchestrating a 4th quarter comeback. Sometimes interceptions are because of improper route running or lack of communication and some of the best QBs are turnover machines because they trust their arm so much. Peyton threw 28 interceptions in his rookie NFL reason and 72 in the next 4 seasons before cutting them out to an extent.
Mariota's completion percentage is higher because he operates in a gimmick offense with designed plays, wide open receivers, shallow routes, screens, bubbles, throws behind the LOS, most of his receivers' stats are YAC and 50 % of his throws are off play action. The completion percentage is gravely misleading. Awesome if we only look at the box score, but on the film it's very underwhelming given the type of throws he makes. How much of that will actually translate when the system is changed ?
Mariota had 68 %, 63 %, 68 % completion in his 3 seasons right ?
Well Tebow had 67%, 67%, 64%, 70% in a similar wide open shotgun offense under Malzahn and Meyer.
Manziel had 69%, 70% in the air raid offense at TAMU.
Now I'm not comparing Mariota (who's clearly better) to a QB who couldn't throw and another who ran around and is rolling joints in the pro. But it was just an exemplifications of how stats can be misleading. Hundley is an inferior prospect but had better accuracy at 69 % than Mariota at 68 % and Winston at 66 %.
Look at the game vs FSU. One pump fake was really good TBF but almost half of Mariota's throws were screen, fades, and shovel passes. Result = greater completion % stats. This will not work well in a traditional NFL scheme unless he's in Philly :
Contrast that with Winston who had 66 % completion for the season anyway so the difference isn't that big but really look at the game overall instead of just the raw stats. The difference between Oregon's running game and FSU's running game and overall playbook is as stark as can be.
24 TDS off plays action for Mariota. 24 ! And 1500 more yards. Will this type of play design work consistently vs pro defenses and linebackers who're just as fast as him ?
Not his best game but look at vs Oregon how Winston goes through the progression. anticipates throws and sends the receivers open, some deep balls, stands in the pocket, operating under center and makes throws into coverage (Oregon's LBs and DBs dropped into coverage for the whole game) that Mariota often doesn't :
Look at his exceptional 2nd half performance vs Notre Dame :
With Winston you get experience in the pro system and a better pocket passer. George Whitfield who trained Big Ben, Luck, Winston, Mariota, Manziel etc said his football IQ is on level with Luck and that's a bold statement. He can throw into zones, stronger arm, natural timing, more durable and all of that translates to the next level. He has to shorten his delivery, brush up some of the mechanics issues and zone coverage reads but it's all very fixable under a good QB coach. Winston is 9-0 in games decided 7 points or less, dude didn't lose a close game ever and his only career loss was vs Oregon which was a blowout with 2 Cook fumbles turning into TDs and FSU quitting on he game altogether. Mariota is 2-3 in games decided by 7 points of less.
I like Mariota too and he's a great role model and I agree with you to the extent that he's definitely much much better than some of Oregon's other quarterbacks. He has great sense of determination and work ethic and he has a chance to become as good as Cam Newton in the pros provided he goes to the right team. The physical tools and quickness are very good but he is more of a projection like Newton and RG3 were and will have to slowly learn the pro system. This is why I think the best thing for him is to fall in the draft so that desperate teams like Tampa or Tennessee or Jets don't pick him up, throw him in quickly and ruin him. He should redshirt his first season in the NFL and develop slowly. Like Green Bay did for Rodgers or the 49ers with Kaepernick who operated in a similar shotgun/ pistol offense as Mariota in Nevada and learned behind Alex Smith for about 15 months before becoming the starter.
