Bill Simmons on the Brady contract restructuring...
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/sorry-youre-working-today-nfl-wild-card-weekend-picks/
Q: When I heard that Tom Brady changed his guaranteed money from a skill guarantee to an injury guarantee, increasing the cash flow available for this offseason by $24 million, it got me excited at first because I thought it would increase the chances that Darrelle Revis could be extended as well as Devin McCourty and Nate Soldier. After reading your tweets, I saw that you were actually skeptical of the move. Could you explain your tweets a little further?
—David Rudman, Port Washington
BS: My illegitimate son Barnwell already
broke down all the contractual mumbo jumbo for Grantland on Tuesday, including the crucial point that avoiding Brady’s $24 million escrow payment helped only New England’s cash flow (not its cap). So I will only add these three points
beyond those tweets:
1. Peyton Manning
signed a $96 million deal with Denver, then eventually
restructured the deal to guarantee him $58 million over his first three Denver seasons.
Brady’s 2013 extension was more team-friendly; he made $33 million guaranteed for 2013 and 2014 combined, then had another $24 million guaranteed coming that was going to cover the next three seasons (2015 through 2017) and turned him into the Tim Duncan/Dirk Nowitzki of Football. (Translation: an unbelievable bargain for a contender.) That’s why my sh-- detector went off. Why not lock down that bargain? For more short-term “cash flow”? For someone who’s a billionaire? Something didn’t add up.
2. OK, so dig a little deeper. The revised “deal” pays Brady $27 million total over the next three seasons (a $3 million bump), but it’s guaranteed only if Brady gets injured during THIS postseason. As the Patriots furiously leaked their “this isn’t a big deal, this is just Brady being an awesome teammate who just wants to win” story to the appropriate parties, buried within those reports was the following tidbit: It’s now a million times easier for the Patriots to release Brady this spring. Again,
the Patriots can cut Brady this spring with heavily reduced financial repercussions.
3. Back to Brady, who eschewed $24 million guaranteed for $27 million with no guarantees. Yet another example of New England’s unabashed exploitation of Brady’s generosity and team-first nature
over these past 12 years, right? But buried in all this week’s news stories
was another tidbit, “Brady also now can be released by the Patriots without any liability, but he then would become an unrestricted free agent, free to command the type of guaranteed money he has agreed to surrender.”
Why would Brady do that? That’s simple: because he loves playing football, he doesn’t have to worry about money,
6 and he wants to end his career on HIS terms. Remember, Brady has the best chance of any quarterback ever of succeeding in his early-forties; I wrote about his whole eats-drinks-sleeps football machine routine two months ago, then
Sports Illustrated expanded on that angle in December. Nobody takes better care of his body. Even if he was better six or seven years ago (especially with deep balls), he’s still one of the best five QBs in football.
What kind of
leverage is that worth? What are three years of Tom Brady worth on the open market this spring for Houston, Buffalo, the Jets, the Rams or whomever? If you’re an up-and-coming team like the Rams, wouldn’t you give Brady $55 million guaranteed for three years without even blinking? If you’re the Texans, and you’ve been crippled by the QB position for just about this entire century, wouldn’t you fork over that $55 million in 2.3 seconds? Oh, here are the 2015 free agents at that position right now:
• Brian Hoyer
• Mark Sanchez
• Jake Locker
• Ryan Mallett
• Michael Vick
And here are the trade candidates …
• Jay Cutler
• Robert Griffin III
Damn. I might have gone low with that $55 million guess. And again, Brady won’t care about signing for the most money possible. For all we know, he’d pick a franchise based on the available talent, the coach, the owner and the situation, in that order, with money being the last (and least important) variable.
So here’s where you say, “Well, why wouldn’t he just stay in New England then?”
Great question. I spent the whole week thinking about it. The answer:
Brady knows better than anyone how Belichick is wired. During Brady’s entire career, the Krafts and Belichick have successfully pulled off their good cop/bad cop routine; the Krafts make the players feel like part of their extended family … right up until Win-At-All-Costs Belichick does whatever is best for the team. It’s a mutually beneficial relationship in every respect — not just because of the three Super Bowls, but because the Patriots are 150-42 (not including playoffs) since 2003.
7 Bill Belichick has to be mentioned first, second, third, fourth or fifth in any “Who’s the greatest person to ever run an NFL team?” conversation. It’s just a fact.
Of course, over the past 13 years, Brady watched Belichick shank Drew Bledsoe, Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Troy Brown, Richard Seymour, Wes Welker, Willie McGinest, Logan Mankins and other esteemed Patriots over the years. That’s why everyone respects the Belichick-era Patriots so much, whether it’s real respect or begrudging respect. The plan never wavers. Belichick will always do what’s best for the future, whether it’s trading down in drafts for extra picks or dumping beloved veterans one year too early instead of one year too late. And Brady knows it. He also knows how miserable Belichick can be day-to-day, especially if you’re letting him down in some way.
So, assuming the Patriots didn’t …
A. Renege on that escrow payment, then put Brady in the position of swallowing his anger for five weeks because he didn’t want to affect the team’s Super Bowl chances (doubtful, but it can’t be ruled out)
B. Already make a wink-wink deal for the future that they can’t announce yet (even more doubtful)
… then this contract “tweak” was about flexibility over everything else. Even if neither side will admit it. I believe the Patriots wanted more flexibility to gently push Brady out if (REPEAT: IF) his performance slips or his body breaks down (think Favre in Green Bay or Manning in Indy). And I believe Brady wanted the flexibility to find a different team if his relationship with Belichick soured for whatever reason. Removing those guarantees, and turning that contract into a year-to-year thing, provided him that flexibility.
And if you think this isn’t a big deal, here’s why you are wrong. A week ago, Tom Brady was locked down in New England through 2017. Now, it’s much easier for him to leave in three months — a decision that might be affected, one way or the other, by whatever happens these next five weeks. Something HAS changed here.
Last point: Like so many others these past few days, I found myself getting sucked into HBO Signature’s restored/HD/widescreen five-day marathon of my second-favorite TV show ever,
The Wire.8 In the last episode, Cheese and a few other drug dealers are figuring out how to buy out Marlo when someone makes a “back in the day” case and Cheese angrily interrupts him.
“There ain’t no back in the day, n----,” Cheese hisses. “Ain’t no nostalgia to this shit here. There’s just the street and the game and what happen here
today.”
Isn’t that how Bill Belichick runs the Patriots?
Ain’t no nostalgia to this shit here. It’s all about what happen here
today. Belichick shanking Brady 13 years after he shanked Bledsoe FOR Brady would be the ultimate Belichickian moment. The man doesn’t pay for past performance. He cares only about what you’re worth right now. That’s the biggest reason why the Patriots win 12 games and compete for the Lombardi every year. And that’s the biggest reason why it’s conceivable — repeat: conceivable — that this contract “tweak” is a bigger deal than everyone thinks.
