Explanations from Schefter and Rapoport are quite damning, they've made an absolute meal out of it. You don't even need to be a great manager or businessman to understand what they could/should have done differently. Even if Caseiro was their guy from the beginning, it's not that hard to keep up appearances and appease your QB to just let him think he had influence in the decision and has a good standing within the organization.
His HC choice with Bieniemy was excellent too, I'm gonna be so disappointed if it's going to be someone like Marvin Lewis in the end.
Honestly, Watson deserves to be traded at this point. I'd be tempted to send him to the Jags for the #1 pick and some change to rebuild the roster.
Problem with trading QBs on massive contracts is the salary cap ramifications.
The Jags are arguably better off paying Lawrence on rookie contract dollars for 3-5 years and using that precious cap space to acquire top tier talents. Make a run in those first 3-5 years and maybe strike gold like Seattle did with Wilson (1-1 in SBs), or the Rams with Goff (despite the SB loss), or the Chiefs with Mahomes, and so forth. Eventually, they'll need to pay him but if he's as good as advertised they need to take advantage immediately. Watson is clearly a top tier QB and a proven commodity but he'd consume a large percentage of the cap going forward, barring a new contract from the Jags in this scenario (and Watson does not
need to do that but could if he wanted out of Houston). There's also the scenario that Lawrence could play the Eli/Elway card on Houston which might factor into trading away a top tier QB.
I'm not sure how all guaranteed monies work in trades. I know prior bonuses paid out are charged to the losing club but dunno about guaranteed salaries. If Houston is on the hook for $73.7M ($67.14M remaining) of that contract even if traded, the Jags should explore it. They'd get a top 10 player, arguably top 5, at his position for $15M* total through 2023 (can opt out in 2024) or $79.4M* through 2025. Houston would be wrecked on the 2021 cap, and possibly 2022 depending on the rules IRT spreading dollars over two years.
* These numbers are taken from the contract totals minus the dead cap Houston would assume if all guaranteed money is charged to their cap. However, if only paid out dollars count as guaranteed for cap purposes, the Jags would consume additional monies minus the $27M signing bonus Houston paid out and all 2020 compensation, from my understanding. The Jags then appear to be on the hook for $82.54M through 2023 or $146.54M through 2025 in this hypothetical, still more manageable than others on $30M plus deals. The Jags have around $85M in projected cap space for 2021.
Edit: Forgot to link the contract.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/deshaun-watson-21753/